A Scout's Eye: Triston McKenzie 2.0

A DEBUT TO REMEMBER

Great moments are born from great opportunity. That’s exactly what Triston McKenzie had been given, what he had earned this past Saturday night in Cleveland.

Far too many negative narratives surrounding McKenzie had begun stemming from reporters and scouts seeking a drastic and all-too-common injury-plagued byline. It’s far too easy to label a risky, high-upside prospect that hadn’t panned out as a simple draft failure to write-off.

It’s also far too easy to accept those injuries as a player and allow it to negatively affect demeanor and motivation as a ballplayer.

Not Triston McKenzie.

Fast forward to this past Saturday night, did Triston McKenzie have a fantastic debut statistically? Sure, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone saying the opposite.

However, in this article we will look well past his stats and view his performance with a scout’s eye to study the “How” in his debut; particularly how exactly he drastically improved since the last time we’ve laid eyes on him. We will analyze his progression in areas of prior weaknesses (i.e. a third pitch) and look at the numbers behind his superb development in his pitch arsenal after being under the HawkEye cameras for the first time.

For example, did you know the pitch metrics on one of his revamped pitches ranks in the Top Five in all of MLB and McKenzie is on the verge of developing a potentially league-wide elite pitch?

Did you know McKenzie has the wingspan of an NFL Quarterback and is a key data point factor in his evolved pitch arsenal resulting in more significant both x and y-axis movement?

And not only did we see a third and fourth pitch on Saturday, we saw a completely revamped and evolved Triston McKenzie 2.0. Time to dive in.

A lot has happened from the spring to this past Saturday. Turns out, none more important to Indians fans than what was occurring at a baseball performance center in Palm Beach, FL and at the Indians secondary site in Eastlake with pitching prospect Triston McKenzie.

It was to nobody’s knowledge, outside of Indians personnel, that McKenzie had progressed to the level of major league-ready that he had. It was to nobody’s knowledge that what was barely a three-pitch mix had evolved into a full four-pitch arsenal.

Scouts always knew McKenzie had talent, seen sparsely in the last five years since drafted, but it was to nobody’s knowledge that we were looking at an evolved Triston McKenzie 2.0 making his MLB debut.

LABELS AND WHAT IF’S

McKenzie was consistently labeled with “what ifs” and “once (so and so) occurs…” The Indians had acquired Logan Allen the season prior, so it wasn’t until 2021 and the constant hope (yet expectation of disappointment) revolving around McKenzie in that the injury-plagued prospect was simply a hope to reach the bigs, a maybe in 2021 if he could stay healthy.

That was all until the progression that occurred in 2020 was unleashed, out of the black hole of MLB secondary sites, and into primetime.

The Cleveland coaching staff knew what they had developed in Eastlake when they decided to give the nod to McKenzie on Saturday night.

They knew internally that the incredibly high-upside prospect had arrived.

This was his opportunity.

It was his time, his moment.

SATURDAY NIGHT VS DETROIT

We’ve all seen the stat line for McKenzie from his MLB-debut (6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 10 K, 1 BB). We all saw McKenzie’s fantastic performance on the surface and the next morning, every Cleveland-area journalist raving over the next big thing to hit their city since LeBron James.

Us scouts have always seen the talent in McKenzie. It’s always been there - advanced command and pitchability and a natural feel for the mound, advanced beyond his years - a pure pitcher that could pound the zone. However, what nobody saw coming was how drastically he had developed over the past several months.

It was McKenzie’s first time under the MLB Hawkeye cameras to provide us with loads of underlying data to study the pitcher’s performance, and that we did, discovering a potentially league-wide elite weapon (if not two) within McKenzie’s evolved arsenal.

PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE

664 days. That’s how long it had been since McKenzie had pitched in a competitive game. That wasn’t lost on him this spring in Arizona.

“It was March 16! I was scheduled to throw in like my first actual game in Spring Training, and it ended up getting rained out in Arizona, which was very surprising,” McKenzie said in an interview this spring.

McKenzie developed a routine in Arizona. It was his patience and his dedication to his routine that ultimately paid off.

That included being one of the first ones out to the fields in the morning with a hot tub session during the early desert sunrise to warm up, followed by the bike or treadmill in a secluded, lonely gym in the wee hours of the morning while most of the desert (and team) still lay quiet from the night before.

Afterward, McKenzie would then visit the training room as other players would begin to awaken.

“It was just very disheartening. I actually stayed out in Arizona for probably a month or so, just because I was still able to go to the complex a little bit. And I tried to keep my routine as similar as possible so that I could stay ready for whenever the corona stuff blew over. But it lasted a little bit longer than I thought it would.”

“I kind of had to sit back and learn how much the game means to me and what I needed to do, day in and day out, both on and off the field,” McKenzie said. “Whether that be in the weight room or the training room, on the field, getting my sleep right, eating right, just so that I can be healthy and go out there and play.”

It was now the summer of 2020, and McKenzie was back home in South Florida. Nonetheless, he carried every bit of that momentum with him to Cressey Sports Performance in Palm Beach Gardens, FL where he trained during the shutdown, alongside the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander.

“For me, it was more just, I would get a lot of reps in, but a lot of the reps didn't necessarily help me if I couldn't see a hitter in the box and kind of get feedback from hitters. I talk a lot to my coaches and the hitters' feedback helped me a lot, especially when we started moving more toward game action. I'd say the biggest thing for me was kind of like getting action and then making it consistent.”

McKenzie didn’t get to pitch in Spring Training, requiring even further patience on his part to stick with his routine and trust the process.

Ultimately, McKenzie was finally given a hurdle at the complex in Arizona when he had the chance to face live hitters for the first time.

“I got some good feedback from some of those big league guys. Frankie said my slider looked good, he said my fastball looked good. Changeup needed a little bit of work, but everybody knew that.”

TURNING THE PAGE TO MCKENZIE 2.0

Frankie, a.k.a. Francisco Lindor, could not have summed up the scouting report on McKenzie’s pitch arsenal any more succinctly. McKenzie’s talent was enough to carry him to a major league roster spot, but he wasn’t a big-league pitcher yet.

As Lindor noted above, McKenzie’s changeup was a fringe-average, if not below-average pitch. His fastball, sitting low 90s (a few ticks of velo gain since sitting upper 80s when drafted), and his curveball were his bread and butter. However, two pitches can only take a pitching prospect so far. Particularly with McKenzie, whose stuff would not play in the bullpen.

Saturday night, McKenzie unveiled a full four pitch-arsenal, featuring three plus pitches, and an entirely new pitch (slider) that he had developed from scratch into considerably, an average to above-average offering.

664 days of training, rehabbing, and repetitions. A spring spent taking in Arizona sunrises on his lonesome before instruction from big-league staff and live hitters for the first time in two years. A summer in Florida spent alongside MLB studs rehabbing from injury in Palm Beach. Then, Saturday night had arrived. 664 days later.

Nobody knew what to expect from McKenzie’s arm except for perhaps McKenzie himself. Nobody knew he had turned the page and truly evolved into the high-upside arm that the Indians foresaw when they drafted him in 2015. The weight hadn’t arrived, but it didn’t need to. McKenzie’s hard work and dedication were enough to silence any doubters and remove any injury-plagued, negative labels from his profile. Evaluators and scouts would praise McKenzie’s makeup and work ethic, but did any of them predict it would result in this type of progression? Absolutely not.

It was an entirely different, completely revamped, evolved pitcher that we saw Saturday night. Triston McKenzie 2.0 had arrived.

SCOUTING TRISTON MCKENZIE 2.0

As I had detailed prior to his debut, the development and refinement of a third pitch was to be crucial for sustained success for Triston McKenzie.

Not only did he show an above-average third, but flashed a newly developed slider that will draw average grades immediately as his fourth pitch.

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McKenzie’s development also resulted in his fastball becoming a potentially league-wide elite pitch. He is the only MLB pitcher in 2020 to accomplish certain pitch metrics leading to a potential elite fastball, you’ll find out exactly which further below. (Spoiler: that other pitcher went on to pitch 45 innings with a 60 K/6 BB ratio, with a 1.60 ERA and 0.60 WHIP, earning him an All-Star selection).

Let’s dive into some of the improvements when scouting the revamped and evolved Triston McKenzie.

MECHANICS AND DELIVERY

McKenzie still features the same repeatable, deceptive delivery. His advanced feel for the mound is evident in the ease of his delivery and extension.

McKenzie, armed with an absurd 80+” wingspan, delivers from his overhand slot further resulting in a longer extension, thereby garnering the high spin rate on his fastball. All of McKenzie’s pitches play up due to the deception in his delivery and the long extension. This results in a perceived velocity much higher than sitting in the low 90s and is why his 50-grade fastball and curveball tore up the minor leagues.

McKenzie’s a physical specimen at 165-pounds, and his wingspan is no small matter, no pun intended. While not a measurement generally used for baseball players, this unique physical characteristic is what results in his superior extension and ability to generate above-average spin on his fastball. McKenzie’s wingspan is more of what NFL scouts would seek, with his 80” tying that of Utah State Quarterback Jordan Love for the longest measured at this year’s NFL Combine.

The perceived velocity, release point, and unique angle all add to hitter’s difficulties and what was previously a plus pitch and McKenzie’s carrying tool, took the next step to becoming a potentially elite pitch in the major leagues.

You’ll hear the terms that the ball “explodes out of McKenzie’s hand” or “reaches the hitters quickly”. This is due to his longer extension and deception, providing hitters with less reaction time as explained below.

AN EVOLVED PITCH ARSENAL

On the below image to the right, we take a look at pitches McKenzie threw with a 1-1 count on Saturday night. Let’s focus on the two fastballs (in red) for a moment, both thrown elevated in the zone (one so much it’s barely in the image), but both uniquely effective.

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The white dots in the image are the recognition point (100ms after release) for the batter, and the pink dots are the commit point (167ms before plate). The other pitches in the chart are his secondaries (curveball = light blue, slider = yellow).

However, if you notice the commit point on the two fastballs, one looking elevated as a hittable pitch with the other more in line with his secondaries. Both pitches were 2400+rpm and both had a -2.4” break and -10.8” V+gravity movements measured. In addition, McKenzie’s extension was beyond 7ft for both of these pitches. Now, here’s where it becomes even more difficult for the hitter.

His elevated fastball is coming at 96mph on this pitch with exceptional rise, and although looking hittable at the commit point, the hitter is lucky to make contact and it’s an easy out. (One of the few spin induced elevated fastballs that was not a whiff on Saturday night, unlike 42% of his other fastballs).

As we now look at the fastball that comes thru the zone; due to McKenzie’s 7+ft extension, the commit point is almost identical to those of his curveball and slider that both ended up as balls. A tough decision now faces the hitter. Is it his fastball coming thru the zone or is it a breaker about to fall out of the zone? On this particular pitch, the batter made very weak contact, just fouling it off with a late reaction on the fastball, as expected, just staying alive.

It’s McKenzie’s repeatable delivery and unique physical characteristics that make this possible. Almost any other pitcher with this build has extreme struggles with command due to the internal ability to control his long limbs and deliver with consistent mechanics. Yet, McKenzie excels with his repetitive delivery.

Given the progression we saw on Saturday night in his pitch arsenal, we could be looking at a well-above average starting pitcher judging from some of the elite pitching metrics he provided. How did McKenzie go from carving up Double-A with two plus pitches to becoming an MLB-caliber frontline starter with a full pitch arsenal and a plus-plus fastball, curveball and above-average third and fourths? Let’s find out.

Fastball

This spring in Arizona, McKenzie’s fastball was sitting 90-93mph, topping out at 94/95mph. It still graded out as a plus pitch due to its unique effectiveness in where it is delivered from and its perceived velocity, but it certainly wasn’t blowing anyone away on the radar gun. Nor was it going to blow away any capable big league hitters.

A few ticks up in velo were going to be necessary for McKenzie’s fastball/curveball combo to play. Scouts and front office personnel all believed that his velocity gains would come when he put on weight and filled out his frame.

They were wrong.

Saturday night, McKenzie came out firing 94-96mph, topping 97mph with his fastball, averaging 94.5mph, although showing he still had plenty left in the tank by throwing his final pitch of the outing at 97mph.

Whatever occurred this summer at Cressey Sports Performance in Palm Beach, FL and at the Indians secondary site in Eastlake, is all that it took for his carrying tool of a four-seamer to become a potentially elite major league pitch.

McKenzie’s four-seam fastball is uniquely effective for numerous different aspects. It features more than 21” of rise, consistently much less than 3” of break and comes from more than 21” off-center (thanks to that aforementioned wingspan).

With his velo gains, McKenzie is the only MLB pitcher to have a fastball that fits all three of those criteria and be thrown at 95+mph. The only other pitcher to feature such a weapon? Lights-out All-Star Sean Doolittle in 2018.

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It’s not just the release point and angle that his extension affects, but he garners an above-average spin rate on his fastball due to his delivery and mechanical factors previously discussed. The pitch averaged 2432rpm and maxed out at 2567rpm.

As seen in this pitch chart to the right (which plots the fastball that came across at the highest rpm), McKenzie’s four-seamer is elite in deception, shows exceptional rise, and he’s not afraid to attack hitters up in the zone with it.

With 11” of vertical movement, his four-seam fastball registers 21% above league average.

To give you an idea of just how elite this movement is, it would currently place McKenzie within the Top 10 across the league in vertical movement.

To emphasize again how elite that is, Justin Verlander’s four-seam has a vertical movement of 11.2” and an average velocity of 95mph. On Saturday night, McKenzie matched both of those metrics.

A fastball that sits low 90s with McKenzie’s spin still generates a 10 SwStr% on average. With his velocity gains from this summer, McKenzie’s fastball now sits in an elite category that typically generates 14 SwStr%. The average launch angle for McKenzie’s previous fastball was 24 degrees, while his velo gains once again enter the pitch into an elite category that averages a launch angle of 27.2 degrees (+3.2 degrees), inducing more pop-ups and fly outs.

As we’ve discussed within McKenzie’s profile before, it’s one thing to have natural talent and an advanced feel for pitching as he does, but it’s an entirely different story to harness that raw talent and effectively put it to use.

McKenzie has always shown above-average command, but on Saturday night, he demonstrated he was willing to attack hitters from the first at-bat of the game and fully utilize his above-average weapons in his evolved pitch arsenal, further showcasing his advanced feel for pitching at his age and a superior pitching IQ.

The image to the right shows McKenzie’s pitches thrown with an 0-2 count on the hitter (with his four-seam fastball in red). Note, he’s attacking and going for the strike out.

His secondaries in his curveball (light blue) and changeup (green) were equally as impressive in his progression with them, but we’ll stay focused on his potentially elite fastball for a bit more.

As evidenced from this pitch chart and the video below, he’s not afraid to attack hitters up in the zone with his elite fastball as an out pitch, proving McKenzie has the ability for his four-seamer to become one of the most effective pitches in the major leagues. Its 42% whiff rate on Saturday night is nothing to complain about either, as it garners marks only beneath fellow teammate Shane Bieber at 48%.

He threw his four-seamer 46 times on Saturday, 57% of all pitches. Nearly half (48%) of all fastballs were Called Strikes+Whiffs, ten were fouled off, and five put into play.

To the right, is the pitch chart of all 46 fastballs that McKenzie threw Saturday night. He lived up to his profile, pounding the zone over and over with strikes. Finally, let’s take one last look at his fastball usage dependent upon the count.

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As previously mentioned, he has plus command and he places his fastball where he wants it. In the next image are pitches thrown with 0-0 counts, and as you can see, he’ll keep his fastball lower in the zone, ensuring strikes rather than elevating it where it succeeds as an out pitch, generating more swings and misses. These were more of his called strikes. He has the command to paint the corners, as evidenced by the pitch charts, but with an 0-0 count, expect McKenzie to do all he can to start the at-bat off 0-1 by pounding the zone.

With the elite spin induced vertical movement on McKenzie’s fastball, the pitch was upgraded from being considered a plus pitch to plus-plus, and potentially elite pending further development. It now garners at least a 60-grade with the potential to go even higher immediately if his pitch metrics continue to fall in the elite category. Velocity gains were always going to be important for McKenzie, but nobody saw the potential for frontline pitch effectiveness this soon.

We’ve taken a look at enough of the data and pitch metrics to show that it could be the next potential elite pitch to hit the majors. Therefore, let’s move on to the next largest progression into the evolved Triston McKenzie 2.0, his newly developed slider, and improved secondary offerings.

SECONDARIES

As previously noted, Triston McKenzie 1.0 desperately needed at least a third and hopefully a fourth pitch to complete his starting pitcher profile. Well, what occurred in South Florida and Eastlake this spring and summer could not be mentioned enough, as Triston McKenzie 2.0 came out with a newly developed pitch (slider) as not his third, but his fourth pitch. At times showing a very sharp break and immediate plus command of it.

SLIDER

McKenzie only threw his slider seven times, but you could see the potential that the pitch holds. The pitch came across consistently at 88mph, and consistently located, showing he has plus command of the newly developed pitch already.

The chart to the right shows where those seven sliders came across the plate, Keep in mind that those pink dotes are when the batter must commit, but it is the white dots (100ms after release) that begins the batter’s decision time on what to do with the pitch. Even at recognition point, it’s fairly discernible to tell if his slider will sneak in the zone or break far enough out for a ball; the pitch already generates league-average horizontal and vertical movement and break, which is tremendous for a pitch he has just developed. The pitch metrics are nothing to blow us away yet on the pitch, but he once again, shows strong command of it and uses it effectively as an out pitch and to keep hitters balanced.

The chart below shows his release point on all pitches thrown. It is important to notice that you’ll see no dots outside of the fastball (red) and curveball (blue). Again, a remarkable trait for a pitcher of McKenzie’s physique.

It’s expected for his curveball (still a plus pitch) to release from a bit of a different angle due to his wingspan and the angle he must throw from to generate the plus movement, but you do not see his slider and changeup on there. That’s also not to diminish his curveball, as it also generated elite marks in movement.

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This further emphasizes the importance of McKenzie’s extension, arm angle, release point on all pitches, particularly his spin induced vertical movement on his plus-plus fastball. The fact that he can command his secondaries and throw them for above-average pitches, only assists in elevating his fastball to a potentially league-wide elite pitch.

CURVEBALL

As if we weren’t already impressed enough with the pitch metrics on McKenzie’s fastball, what if I told you his curveball ranks within the Top 50 of all MLB pitchers in regards to horizontal movement and inches of break, garnering him well above-league average metrics for the pitch. This is despite not even showing its true potential if he is able to develop it even further (i.e. release point refinement and elevating its league-average spin rate).

Let’s take a quick look at McKenzie’s curveball that we previously mentioned as his bread and butter, but now just one of his many weapons in his pitch arsenal that grades out as plus and on the verge of plus-plus.

It’s a strong overhand curve that shows great depth and plane, and he has strong command of it, locating it wherever he pleases. The pitch generates 8.7” of vertical movement, 20% above league average, and placing him in the Top 50 of all MLB pitchers in 2020.

Let’s take a look at some of them thrown below, paying close attention to his release point, extension, depth and plane of the pitch.

CHANGEUP

Last, but not least, we must mention McKenzie’s changeup. Now it certainly didn’t cover any elite pitch metrics, and was also hit out for a home run in his start. However, this previously fringe-to-below average third pitch can certainly now generate average grades as his third pitch.

To the right is a chart of the changeups that he threw, and below we’ll take a look at some of them in video. The pitch still features a solid fade movement to it, consistently coming across at 88mph.

You can see the difference in this pitch chart compared to the others, as his changeup is a bit more visible at the recognition and commit points, but nonetheless, still an effective fourth offering and drastically improved from the below-average pitch that he featured this spring.

CONCLUSION: TRISTON MCKENZIE 2.0

This piece was not written to glorify and emphasize McKenzie’s first start at the big league level and deem him the next MLB ace. Not in the slightest.

The purpose of this piece was to illuminate that behind those six innings of two-hit, one-run ball, was a truly evolved pitcher than what we had not seen in 2018, 2019, and even the spring of 2020. It was a pitcher that took his development and progression to the next level. A pitcher, whom evaluators have always clamored about his work ethic, came to fruition and we saw it in action, unleashed in primetime on Saturday night..

From early morning hot tub and treadmill sessions in the desert while the team still lay asleep, to taking that routine to Cressey Sports Performance in South Florida and proceeding from there to Eastlake and the Indians secondary site.

It’s not often that a pitcher develops and progresses the way McKenzie has. Not many pitchers can take 664 days off between starts and remain effective with a high-upside label still. However, in the past few months, what cannot be understated enough, is that McKenzie is on the verge of developing a truly elite fastball, by all pitch metrics, and a plus-plus curveball in terms of its plane, depth, and plus movement.

McKenzie is already one of the most difficult pitchers to hit due to his unique physical characteristics, deceptive delivery, and long extension. The fact that he is on the verge of developing MLB-caliber plus-plus pitches, is something that everybody in the game of baseball should be keeping an eye on.

Will McKenzie ever unveil what was occurring behind the scenes from the spring of 2020 until late August when he made his MLB-debut? How was he able to garner 3-4+mph on his fastball, without putting on any additional weight as every scout in existence said was necessary?

We don’t know, and we may never know. But the reality is that we’re now looking at a backend rotation arm who is on the verge, thanks to the extreme development of his pitch arsenal in the past few months, of becoming a front of the rotation starter with two potentially elite MLB-caliber pitches.

What happens Friday night in St. Lous is somewhat arbitrary. McKenzie showcased everything that he needed to this past weekend. Despite all of this praise, would I be shocked if the Indians sent him back to the secondary site? Not at all. He has managed to completely evolve his pitch arsenal in a matter of months. Give him a few more, and who knows what we could see.

However, there is no doubt that, despite any surface stats on Triston McKenzie, the underlying data lets us know that a whole new pitcher has evolved in the Cleveland system, Triston McKenzie 2.0.

Throw out all your old tape, because we’re on the verge of a potential breakout of a completely new pitcher, unlike anything we’ve seen in Cleveland except for the likes of their frontline starters.

In 2021, it wouldn’t surprise me the least to see McKenzie being mentioned with the likes of Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale in Cleveland.

(Triston McKenzie 2.0, that is.)