With Nick Markakis potentially exposed to COVID-19 and needing to quarantine, the Atlanta Braves have taken the plunge and called up top outfield prospect Cristian Pache from the alternative training site.
The Rankings
Pache was the #1 prospect in our Braves top 30 list this offseason. He was listed as the #9 overall prospect in the Prospects Live top-100 offseason list. Finally, he was ranked #50 in our top-500 fantasy prospects list.
The Player
Pache was the beginning of the end for the career of John Coppolella as the Atlanta Braves general manager. Coppolella signed Pache from the Dominican Republic as one of the two major money signings during the 2015-2016 international signing period. Pache’s trainer made a deal with Coppolella with Pache’s signing bonus that included another player that was outside signing bonus restrictions in order to keep Atlanta under spending limits. When they found the manipulation, it restricted Atlanta to a maximum of $300,000 signings for the 2016-2017 signing period. This eventually caused 13 players to be removed from the organization.
Pache has developed quickly, spending 2017 in full-season ball as an 18-year-old, hitting .281/.335/.343 with 32 steals. He split 2018 between High-A and Double-A, hitting .279/.307/.410 with 9 home runs. After showing well in the 2018 Arizona Fall League, Pache spent the 2019 season between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .277/.340/.462 with 47 total extra base hits.
The Tools
Hit (45 present/55 future): Pache has a very quick swing, and he has worked with the club to simplify and shorten his swing over the last two years. That has showed in a notable reduction in his strikeout rate throughout 2019, with his lowest strikeout rate at the plate during the year coming after he was promoted to Triple-A. Pache has also developed his eye at the plate as well, though he still has a bit of a long load to his swing, meaning he’s often slow into the zone on pitches, making it hard for him to hold up at times.
Power (40/50): This is a conservative number as Pache has blown me away in the way he’s developed power into his game at the plate. He has developed his body significantly and seen power come quickly with his newfound strength. Pache can get a bit “bomb happy”, attempting to put a monster swing on everything he can rather than using his bat speed and foot speed to generate gap doubles. Pache did produce 45 doubles and triples in the upper minors in 2019, and hitting 15-20 home runs with similar production between doubles and triples would not be surprising.
Speed (60/60): Pache has not sacrificed his plus speed while adding bulk, doing smart workouts that have maintained his flexibility while adding muscle. Many see his mediocre stolen base rates (58 steals in 96 attempts in the minors for a 60% success rate) as indication that he’s not fast or not a good base runner, but neither is true. Pache is an excellent base runner, but he has below-average instincts as a base stealer.
Defense (80/70): A reported comment this spring by one long-time Atlanta Braves coach to former Gold Glove stalwart Andruw Jones as Pache drifted under a ball in center was, “he can go and get it even better than you did right away.” That doesn’t mean Pache is immediately going to be peak Andruw Jones, but he’s been quite consistently considered among the absolute elite defenders in all of minor league baseball, regardless of position, since he first came into the minor leagues. His instincts off the bat are absolutely incredible and he takes tremendous routes to the ball whether in center or right field. I only put a 70 future simply because retaining 80 defense for long into the future is a tough ask!
Arm (70/70): Pache doesn’t get the “top of the minors” recognition for his arm that he does for his work in center and right field, but he has tallied 42 assists and 16 double plays over 423 minor league games, which breaks down to 16 assists and 6 double plays from the outfield over 162 games. For context, it has been since 2012 since any outfielder has tallied 6 double plays as an outfielder and over the last decade, 16 assists would have at least tied for the major league lead in 8 of 10 seasons. Pache doesn’t just possess a strong arm, but he is also tremendously accurate and earns the assists and double plays that show up on stat sheets.
Prediction
The Atlanta Braves have been hesitant to call up Cristian Pache, even with Ender Inciarte struggling and Ronald Acuña Jr. injured. That has generally been thought to be because the team doesn’t want to bring up Pache unless he will be starting. With Markakis and Acuña both unavailable, Pache should get a chance to get starts in the outfield right now. He will provide more than enough defense to stick, even if his bat isn’t producing right away.
Fantasy Impact
There’s a reason for the discrepancy for the team and overall prospect rankings for Pache and the fantasy prospect rankings. He’s likely not going to be a guy who really impacts your fantasy squad, and certainly, if he was ever an elite fantasy performer, it’d surprise even Pache’s biggest fans. However, Pache is an excellent baserunner and has elite defense that should portend him spending a lot of time in the lineup, even if it’s at the bottom of the lineup, so Pache could be a guy to give better-than-average production in the runs category simply due to getting plenty of at-bats. If he can continue the progress with his eye at the plate and/or his power, he could find himself higher in the lineup, getting his runs/RBI even more valuable, even if he doesn’t contribute a lot in home runs and/or steals.