BACKGROUND
The Alabama native went undrafted out of high school. After pitching to a 19-2 career record at Springville High School, the right-hander committed to the University of Auburn. As a freshman, Mize topped out at 92 mph and pitched to a pedestrian 3.52 ERA, recording only 59 strikeouts in 69 innings. Mize really turned the corner during his sophomore campaign, however, adding to his fastball velocity and pitching to a 2.04 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and tallying 109 strikeouts in just 83.2 innings.
The 6-foot-3 righty was selected first overall by the Detroit Tigers after his dominating junior year at Auburn. In his final season as an Auburn Tiger, Mize was untouchable, fanning 156 batters in his 114.2 innings and ultimately being rewarded by Detroit with a $7.5 million signing bonus.
RANKINGS
Mize ranked #2 on our Tigers Top 30 List and #27 on our Top 500 Fantasy List, the fifth highest pitcher from the latter list.
PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
When watching Casey Mize pitch, it is hard to not notice how strong his lower half is. He drops low and drives towards the plate in Tom Seaver-esque fashion. The push off from his right leg generates great extension in his delivery. His front leg lifts high, effectively hiding the baseball from opponents, allowing him to tunnel his split fastball extremely well. The right-hander slings the ball from a ¾ arm slot with elite arm speed. The combination of his powerful leg kick and electric arm speed, has aided Mize in increasing his velocity to 94-96 mph. The torque he generates from his lower half, bodes well for Mize’s ability to overpower hitters at the professional level.
PITCH MIX
Casey Mize yields a wipe-out split finger that he pairs with a powerful fastball. With pinpoint control and elite tumbling action on his splitter, Mize is able to generate swings and misses in all zones. Over the last two seasons, Mize has steadily improved his slider to a third “plus” pitch. In addition to his fastball now topping out in the mid-to-high 90s, the heater bears significant arm-side run. Making the fastball even more difficult to square up, Mize has the ability to pinpoint exactly where he wants to locate it. Take a look at this fastball running back over the plate that he uses to set up his breaking balls.
HEALTH
Casey Mize did run into some injury trouble last season. After hurling a no-hitter in his first start in Double-A, Mize continued to dominate the Eastern League. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his first eight starts in Erie, Pennsylvania. However, he was pulled from a start in mid-June last summer due to some discomfort in his right shoulder. Mize was sidelined for about a month before returning to action.
Upon his return, Mize struggled to regain his command of the zone and lost some of his stuff. After a few tough outings, Detroit shut down their top prospect in August for the remainder of the season. There has been no further discussion about Mize’s health coming out of Detroit’s camp this summer. With his call up to The Show, all signs point towards Casey Mize being fully healthy. This shoulder issue for Mize was not his first run-in with the training staff, however.
At Auburn in 2017, Mize was shut down due to what was described as a “tired arm” and “flexor strain” in the forearm of his right side. This issue popped up again as Mize continued throwing into the summer for Team USA. His checkered medical history has led some scouts to tamper their expectations a tad, but not the Detroit Tigers. The consensus in the organization is that Mize is still the best right-handed arm in the minor leagues.
OUTCOMES
The most probable outcome for Casey Mize is this: future ace of the Detroit Tigers. I am not sure if that qualifies as a “hot take” or a “bold claim” at this point in time, but with the duo of Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal in the system, it certainly could be considered one. With his aforementioned increased velocity, deadly splitter, ability to hide the ball, elite arm speed, and command of the zone, there are very few flaws in the former first overall pick’s game. Especially with the development of his slider over his first two professional seasons.
Fastball (60): Casey Mize has that ¾ arm slot and electric arm action that was briefly mentioned before. We saw Mize add a few ticks to his fastball since his college days and that has gone a long way in his development. The right-hander drops and drives off that strong back leg and whips his arm quickly through the zone. His pinpoint control fastball paired with its glove-side run, makes this a dominating pitch for Mize.
Splitter (70): This is Mize’s wipeout pitch. With his hands held high and a big leg kick to his letters, Mize hides the ball extremely well, allowing him to tunnel his splitter with his fastball. Much like his fastball, Mize has 70-grade command with his splitter, as well. The split finger fastball tumbles out of the zone and falls off the table immediately before contact.
Sitting in the 83-85 mph range, Mize creates great separation from his fastball. Commanding both sides of the plate and generating arm side fade and drop, opposing hitters very commonly look foolish against the breaker.
Slider (60): Because there are two variations, Mize’s slider sometimes gets mischaracterized for his cutter, but there are a few miles per hour of difference with the slider coming in high 80s. The bat missing slider has two-plane break with a sharp bite, a legitimate swing and miss offering to help negate platoon issues. The firmer version moves more laterally and presents itself as a weapon vs. RHB.
Cutter (50): If Mize’s fastball is off, he’ll turn to this pitch. It’s a 90-91 offering he commands well with slight horizontal break. Like his slider, it’s a great pitch against LHB and works well in tandem. It’s not a putaway pitch but he uses it to work the batter into a hole to then unleash a slider or splitter.
CONCLUSION
Casey Mize was the first overall selection out of Auburn in 2018 for good reason. The 23 year old already has three “plus” pitches. One of which has been described by scouts as the best breaking ball in the minor leagues. Shortly after being drafted, Mize shot up prospect ranking boards all across the industry. He still remains as the top rated right-handed pitching prospect and very commonly rated as the second overall pitching prospect in baseball behind only left-handed Mackenzie Gore of the San Diego Padres. There is little doubt that Casey Mize has all the tools to be an ace for the Detroit Tigers. His impeccable command and knowledge of the strike zone allows him to miss bats at an exceptional rate while limiting opponent’s walks. The Detroit Tigers are in good hands with Casey Mize heading the rebuild.
Matt’s Fantasy Take: Mize is a must add in all formats. The young right-hander has three plus or better offerings and plus command, making him a solid ratio play that should strikeout just under a batter per inning. There’s top 15 starter upside here based on his ability to generate weak contact and miss bats, leading to fewer chances he blows up your ratios. With Nate Pearson and Spencer Howard’s struggles, he has a chance to claim the title of “Best Debut of a High Pedigree Pitcher”.
Thanks to James Chipman for additional info on pitch mix.