White Sox fans have been anticipating the call-up of Nick Madrigal for awhile now, but the club has been giving regular 2B reps to Leury García with a splash of Danny Mendick on the side. Madrigal is a lightning rod of a prospect. Some White Sox fans believe he will be the second coming of “The Laser Show”, others predict he’s Placido Polanco 2.0. So what should White Sox fans expect for 2020 and beyond?
THE RANKINGS
Madrigal ranked fourth in our Chicago White Sox Top 30 list. He comes in ranked 76th overall in our newly released Top 500 Prospects for Dynasty Leagues.
THE TOOLS
Defense (60 field/40 throw): The 60-grade might be a tad conservative, as many looks have noted that Madrigal has played potential gold-glove defense at second base throughout his professional career. He probably also has the range to cover shortstop in a pinch, but it would be a real challenge for his arm at the big league level. He posted an absurd 4.48 range factor and an excellent .992 fielding percentage in 108 games across three minor league levels in 2019, winning a Minor League Gold Glove. His reads, hands, footwork, internal clock, and defensive IQ are all strong. The skills should translate to the MLB level.
Hit (60 present/70 future): If using an old school definition of hit tool as the ability to make contact and hit for average, Madrigal is a 70/80 hit tool candidate. However, looking at a more refined definition of hit tool, Madrigal’s inability to drive the ball for extra bases (let alone home runs) will poke some holes in the profile. MLB teams will get creative with both infield and outfield defensive presentations to take away hits from the kid. They will dare him to hit it over their heads. MLB pitchers will challenge him with high fastballs and breaking balls designed to elicit ground ball contact. Whether he can progress beyond dink and dunk singles and start driving the ball to the wall will be the ultimate decider as to where his hit tool winds up.
Power (30 present/30 future): According to my calculations, Madrigal’s professional Major League Equivalent slugging average is below .400. Home runs are an even rarer even than strikeouts for him in his career thus far. He messed around with a heavier bat in Spring Training 1.0, but went back to a lighter version of his boom stick for Summer Camp. He’s worked out relentlessly to build muscle. It hasn’t mattered. His profile just isn’t built for power at this stage. Some believe that with maturity and an MLB baseball, he will be able to approach double-digit home run totals. However, I’m not holding my breath for that until he shows it because his track record just doesn’t suggest that it is a possibility.
Speed (60 present/60 future): Madrigal is a very quick player. He’s posted 70-grade first-to-third times in the minors. Obviously with his shorter stature, his speed comes from a high motor as opposed to long strides. However, his range is still impressive. He’s a quick, intelligent baserunner who is a threat for a 30 stolen base season playing full-time at the MLB level.
Prediction: My Philthy Projection system, which uses major league equivalencies for minor league and collegiate stats, has Madrigal projected for a .296/.347/.405 debut with two home runs and eight stolen bases. It’s probably wise to fade those power totals. One thing that’s certain is, because of his extreme contact approach, he will be a slave to BABIP luck throughout his career. A cold BABIP start to the season will have his detractors crawling out of the woodwork. A hot BABIP season will win him a batting title.
He’s going to provide value to the club through a combination of getting on base, flashing gold glove caliber defense, and being a strong plus for the club on the basepaths. He’s also going to be a pest to strikeout at the bottom of the White Sox order, hopefully leading to long at-bats which will wear out opposing pitching. At his prime, seasons in the 2.5-3.5 WAR range should be the expectation.