This is a special guest write up by Rhys White, arguably Bubic’s biggest stan on Twitter.
Ranking: 7th on the Pre Season Prospects Live Royals List, 224th on Fantasy Top 500 List
Background
Before he ended up on Stanford’s campus, Bubic was a relatively well-known prep pitcher in the Northern California area but was 85-89 with the fastball so there was little pro interest. He showed up to campus as a 6’2” 190 pound but over his three years at the prestigious Stanford grew to 6’3” and put on 30 pounds which raised his profile and he worked on his velocity and his pitch repertoire.
Fast-forward to his junior year and for someone with Bubic’s profile, there was some concern about his velocity as he was in the low 90’s and sometimes dipped into the high 80’s. Even with that suboptimal velocity, he was still missing bats and limiting the walks. Then he became the 40th overall pick for the Royals in a draft that will have two of their first four picks make their major league debut shortly after this is posted. Bubic has never pitched above High A so there is some concern
Physical Description
The former Stanford student-athlete is a well-built 6’3” that is well-proportioned with a thick lower half, or as the kids would say thicc. He gets decent extension but he thrives off of the deception that he gets from his delivery that allows him to hide the ball well. Bubic tends to be calm and collected on the mound.
Pitch Mix
The pitching repertoire is headlined by his changeup that is around 81-84 that he will throw to both sides of the plate. His fastball is comfortably 90-93 however we have seen in short spurts like the Futures Game pump it up to 95. He will also mix in a nice curveball that is an average offering but at times will flash above-average.
Health
Up until this point I don’t have any injury concerns with Bubic, which is something I was concerned with just because Stanford hasn’t had a glowing track record with pitchers staying healthy when they go pro. Every fifth day up Bubic has done a good job of taking the ball every fifth day. In his first full season, Bubic pitched 149.1 innings and put together 26 starts over A ball and High A ball.
Outcomes
The term “mid-rotation starter” is often thrown around too liberally however Bubic fits that profile to a tee. He probably hovers in that decent number three starter or high-end number four starter during his career. He has the deceptiveness and “craftiness” that you would want from a mid-rotation leftie without an overwhelming fastball. How he hides the ball during his delivery allows his stuff to play up and during his peak, he could be a solid number three starter for a competitive team.
Fastball: (50/55) I do not believe that Bubic will ever have an overwhelming fastball however he manages to miss bats with his low 90’s fastball because of his ability to spot the offering. However, as I alluded to earlier he has hit mid 90’s in shorter outings and if he can reach that more consistently it would unlock a bit more for the southpaw. He can spot the fastball all over the zone and has done a great job of avoiding barrels with the fastball.
Curveball: (50/55) The curveball is not exciting as changeup however it is another quality offering that will allow him to not be a two-pitch pitcher. He often uses the curveball as a weapon to attack left-handed hitters. While he has good command of the fastball and changeup the curveball does not have the same level of command from the left-hander. While he uses the curveball more often against left-handed hitters he will mix it in against righties if they continue to foul off the fastball or changeup.
Changeup: (70/70) The best of his three offerings, and arguably one of the best offerings in all of the minors. It’s a low 80’s changeup with arm-side run that he will throw to both sides of the plate and in any count. It’s his true out-pitch that he sequences well off of the fastball. The changeup is incredibly hard to pick out of the hand especially because Bubic does a good job of tunneling with the fastball and change piece. I am looking forward to all the gifs of his changeup to be making their way around the Twitterverse.
Conclusion
Kris Bubic was one of five college pitchers the Royals drafted and outside of Daniel Lynch he is the best of them drafted. He profiles out as a mid-rotation starter with a funky delivery that hides the ball well and messes with a batter’s timing. Despite not having overwhelming stuff, like other pitchers who have recently made their debut, Bubic does a great job of missing bats, inducing swings and misses, and avoiding hard contact from hitters. Bubic has never pitched an inning over the High A level so there may be some sort of adjustment period for Bubic. If Bubic can miss barrels at the big league level he will be a quality mid-rotation starter who can be counted on to take the ball every fifth day.