CHICAGO CUBS
Their Strength: Offensive Core
The Cubs will be in every game due to a lineup that will run out Javy Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras. That offensive core should occupy the top five spots in the lineup, with Bryant being the non-traditional answer to the leadoff man question. ZiPS is the most pessimistic of all the projection systems but still has Bryant pegged for a .368 OBP, which would actually be the lowest of his career. The shoulder injuries from 2019 that led to two separate IL stints and a sore knee that bothered him in the second half are likely to blame but Bryant was surprisingly amongst the bottom 25 percent in exit velocity and hard hit rate last season. Look for that to change as he heads into his contract year.
Their Weakness: The Bullpen
Pitching depth as a whole is the Cubs biggest weakness, but at least the rotation has Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks. Craig Kimbrel is the unquestioned anchor here and will be unchallenged as the Cubs closer despite a rough, homer-prone 2019. A late start to his 2019 appears to be at least partly to blame here, but the uptick in walks that came with the homers and a late season bout with elbow inflammation are concerning. Mainstays Brandon Kintzler, Pedro Strop and Steve Cishek have moved on leaving the setup duties to hold overs Rowan Wick and Kyle Ryan. They’ve added Jeremy Jeffress, Ryan Tepera, Casey Sadler and Dan Winkler to hopefully catch lightning in a bottle, but none of them required a sizable commitment. Tyler Chatwood leaves the bullpen and will join the rotation, leaving yet another bullpen role up for grabs.
Their Secret Weapon: The DH
Yes, every team gets to use the designated hitter to their advantage in 2020, but I think with how banged up the Cubs core was at the end of 2019, the designated hitter will be extremely beneficial to them. There was some talk about making Kyle Schwarber the full-time DH, but new manager David Ross said they will rotate players through the position. If it keeps Rizzo or Bryant healthier and in the lineup that can’t be a bad thing for the club. It also gives a potential everyday spot to Ian Happ. Happ is a nice post hype sleeper with some power and speed.
The Possible Out Of Nowhere Guy: Alec Mills
Mills has flashed some strong numbers in his limited run as a starter with a 3.23 ERA (3.53 xFIP) and 11.5 K/9. Jose Quintana will start the season on the IL due to a dishwashing accident which will pave the way for both Mills and Chatwood to break camp as a starter. Mills has five pitches that all move in different directions, and sequences well. He exhausted his prospect eligibility last season but was ranked 21st on our 2019 Chicago Cubs Top 30 Prospects list. He lives on the edges and low in the zone, and is prone to getting hit hard at times because his fastball straddles 90 miles per hour. He’s primarily a pitch-to-contact guy with a sinker, 4-seam, curve, slider and change. None of his pitches are above-average but at 28 and with above-average command he’s a finished product and deserves an opportunity to seize a rotation spot.
CINCINNATI REDS
Their Strength: Pitching
The Reds have the best rotation in the central and the number of quality options is greater than available rotation spots. Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, and Sonny Gray are as good a trio as any and Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani will fill out the rest of the opening day five. Tyler Mahle and Lucas Sims are depth options for the Reds that would start for any other team in this division and should play valuable roles on the Reds staff. The bullpen is formidable also with Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, Michael Lorenzen, Robert Stephenson and a healthy Pedro Strop on the back end. A healthy Nate Jones could also be another asset. The Reds are picked by many to win the division and be a force in the playoffs due to this staff.
Their Weakness: Defense
The Reds will be able to hit and pitch with anyone, but even with the designated hitter they won’t be strong defensively. Mike Moustakas at second base won’t help the infield, and Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel, and Nick Castellanos will occupy the outfield corners. 32-year-old Shogo Akiyama was brought over from Japan to be the primary centerfielder and reports on his defense weren’t strong before he came over.
Their Secret Weapon: SS Jose Garcia
Yes, he was our top prospect on the Reds Top 30 list, but Jose Garcia was impressive during spring training and has picked up where he left off in summer camp. In addition to the newly found power Garcia draws strong reviews on the defensive side of the ball. He’s the organization's best shortstop option if something were to happen to Freddy Galvis, and none of the Reds current bench options would be able to play even a passable shortstop, making him all that much more important. Hat tip to Will Scharnagl for writing the Reds top 30 and being the loudest voice in the crowd here.
The Possible Out Of Nowhere Guy: OF Mark Payton
Payton was a Rule 5 draft pick from the Athletics this December after a monster season in Triple-A. Payton hit .334/.400/.653 with 30 homers with the Triple-A environment and the juiced ball. The outfield depth chart is crowded in Cincinnati, but it wouldn’t be an “out of nowhere guy” if it wasn’t. Having the designated hitter available should help him get more playing time, and we can see how much of the offensive production was because of the environment or the swing change he made.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Their Strength: Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich is the best player in the National League and the second best hitter in all of baseball behind Mike Trout. If I had the top pick in a fantasy draft I would take Yelich number one for this 60-game sprint. Yelich actually put up better numbers in 2019 than he did in his 2018 and he missed the final three weeks due to a fractured kneecap. Yelich hit .329/.429/.671 with 44 bombs and 30 steals and a 174 wRC+ in 130 games. His transformation from good player in Miami to an elite player with Milwaukee has been fun to watch.
Their Weakness: Rotation
The Brewers not signing a free agent starting pitcher was one of the most baffling off-season storylines for me. Brandon Woodruff is a legitimate arm and is one of the best young arms in the sport, but beyond that it can get a bit messy. Adrian Houser is a trendy sleeper pick entering 2020, although it will be tough to match his strikeout rate as a full-time starter. He’s had Tommy John and improved his changeup since the surgery but still lacks an out-pitch. The rest of the rotation will be three of Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom, Eric Lauer and Freddy Peralta. Trey Supak is on the 40-man and could be a factor in 2020. He ranked number 17 on our Brewers top 30 prospect list. One of manager Craig Counsell’s greatest strengths is how he manages the bullpen, and that will be tested in a 60-game season. Corbin Burnes is a sleeper for the job and offers some upside.
Their Secret Weapon: Corbin Burnes
Entering 2019 Corbin Burnes was expected to play a major role for the Brewers, but he couldn’t come close to repeating his strong 2018 debut. Instead it was a disaster and he found himself bouncing back and forth between the Milwaukee bullpen and Triple-A San Antonio. Burnes fastball sits 94-96 with cut, but his command of the pitch wasn’t anywhere near 2018 levels, and might explain the homer issue he ran into in 2019. He allowed a staggering 17 homers in just 49 innings, compared to just four in 38 innings the year prior. The slider still showed serious promise and it's his go-to swing and miss pitch. If he can grab that fifth starter spot he can give the Brewers rotation a jolt.
The Possible Out Of Nowhere Guy: RHP J.P. Feyereisen
The Brewers acquired Feyereisen from the Yankees for teenage SS Brenny Escanio late last year. The Wisconsin native had his best professional season last year, and the former D-III arm now finds himself on the doorstep of the bigs. The six-foot-two righty attacks hitters with a high spin 94-96 mph fastball with horizontal movement away from righties. His best secondary is a high-80s changeup. He struck out 94 hitters in just over 61 innings and has looked quite strong during Brewers summer camp. Counsell has shown a propensity to go to his bullpen early and often, and he could have another arm to help shorten games.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Their Strength: Low Expectations
Massive amounts of overdue turnover in the front office and the manager's office have given the fanbase hope without creating expectations for the 2020 season. New General Manager Ben Cherington and manager Derek Shelton have replaced the old guard and brought some change and long term optimism for the future, which is good because the current roster lacks star power. Josh Bell looks like he could develop into a franchise building block and is just entering into his arbitration years so it will be interesting to see if they flip him for more young pieces or try to sign him long term. The lack of expectations for the abbreviated 2020 season should allow the Pirates to give extended run to guys like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Cole Tucker and Jared Oliva. Their alternate camp also features exciting young talents Liover Peguero, Oneil Cruz, Travis Swaggerty and 2020 first round pick Nick Gonzales.
Their Weakness: Power
Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco are the only two starters with better than average raw power, and the Pirates have a roster more suited for small ball and run prevention than offensive production. With Polanco currently out due to COVID-19, that creates an even bigger need for some pop. Bryan Reynolds did hit 16 homers and slug .503 in his 134 game sample last season but those are benchmarks he hadn’t come close to hitting in the minors previously and I’m skeptical that they hold up over another full season. Reynolds hit tool is plus but the rest of his tools sit around average. Adam Frazier, Jose Osuna, Kevin Newman, Jacob Stallings, Jarrod Dyson and Colin Moran aren’t known for their power either. Fans of small ball should like following this Pirates club in 2020.
Their Secret Weapon: Healthy Gregory Polanco
This is a tough one, but we can dream right? Polanco is a polarizing player that has shown flashes but has battled inconsistency and injuries so far in his brief career. At the time of publishing news broke that he contracted COVID-19 and will start the season away from the club. He’s asymptomatic so I’m assuming he will return as soon as he’s eligible. Polanco has battled knee and shoulder injuries throughout his career, and the latest ailment is the shoulder that resulted in surgery. He’s struggled throwing the ball since surgery, but the addition of the DH in the National League for this year can get him in the lineup sooner. The lineup needs Polanco, as he is one of the few power threats. Hopefully he can produce something similar to his 2018 (123 wRC+) before a full season explosion in 2021.
The Possible Out Of Nowhere Guy: OF Jared Oliva
The former seventh rounder out of the University of Arizona is a bit under the radar as far as prospects go but the speedy centerfielder was ranked fourth on our Pittsburgh Pirates Top 30 Prospects list. I personally saw Oliva when I was in Arizona for the Fall League and he blew me away. I’m extremely confident that the stolen bases will play at the next level as he’s been an efficient high volume base stealer in the minors, and the defense is strong. He showed some untapped raw power while out in Arizona and his batting practice sessions were not what you would expect from a guy with only 15 career minor league homers. There’s a real chance he gets up to 15 homers per season while playing elite defense and potentially stealing 25 bags. He’s a high floor guy not all that different than Bryan Reynolds as a prospect.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Their Strength: Jack Flaherty
Flaherty pitched the Redbirds into the playoffs with an incredible second half that saw him post a 0.91 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. He battled with his fastball command in the first half but made some adjustments (mostly moved over on the rubber) and put together a second half for the ages. Using FanGraph’s pitch values, his fastball was the second best pitch in baseball over the second half of the season while his slider was fifth. He’s neck and neck with Walker Buehler for the title of best young starting pitching in the National League and he is the rock that the Cardinals rotation desperately needs. It’s unlikely that he repeats a 2.75 ERA, but an arm like this makes you a threat to win every series.
Their Weakness: Outfield
For years we’ve heard about how strong the Cardinals outfield depth is, and about all the outfield prospects coming through the pipeline. Did you know the Cardinals outfield was actually a below average offensive unit last year? The group hit .244/.330/.418, good for a 98 wRC+ and the Cardinals got a total of 6.8 WAR. That’s a group that made no significant offensive additions for 2020 and lost Marcell Ozuna and Jose Martinez who were the two best offensive outfielders the last two seasons. Tyler O’Neill is ready to step into a full time role but there’s some uncertainty with his ability to make consistent contact. He hasn’t been able to stay on the field for a long enough stretch to claim the job, and hopefully he can stay healthy and produce in 2020. The outfield needs his double plus power and plus speed.
Their Secret Weapon: Lane Thomas
Much of everything about Thomas’ professional career to this point has been a relative secret to everyone except the prospect die-hards. Thomas was a fifth round pick by the Blue Jays out of Knoxville, Tennessee. He was sent to the Cardinals for international bonus pool money so the Blue Jays could sign Eric Pardinho, and since coming to the Cardinals he’s found another gear offensively. He’s a plus runner with above-average pop and defensive abilities, and could push Harrison Bader for the starting centerfield job. He’s reworked his swing and had a successful 34-game stint before fracturing his wrist and ending his season. He just missed prospect eligibility due to service time, but he would’ve ranked as the Cardinals number six prospect for me if he was still eligible.
The Possible Out Of Nowhere Guy: LHP Austin Gombert
Gomber is the forgotten man when looking at Cardinals rotation candidates. You have the present starting five, and then people are quick to mention Daniel Ponce de Leon, Genesis Cabrera and newly signed Kwang-hyun Kim, but nobody mentions the big lefty with the 12-6 curveball. Gomber showed some flashes in 2018 but battled shoulder and bicep injuries in 2019 that stopped him from appearing in any games with the Cardinals. He’s back and healthy and has looked great this spring, and in summer camp. It’s a 92-94 mph heater with a curveball, cutter and a change and he sequences well and keeps hitters off balance. He can be an asset in many different ways for the Cardinals staff in 2020.