Yankees fans, you have to be excited that after three years of knocking on the door, you’re poised to kick it in. You have the best, most powerful hitters in the game, the most expensive pitcher ever, and a devastating bullpen. In this 60-game season, every game counts, so tell me: how do you feel about handing the ball to 37-year-old J.A. Happ (2019: 4.91 ERA, 34 HRs in 161 Innings) eight to ten times?
Perhaps you’d rather roll with one of two young guns with eye-popping stuff.
Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP, 25 Years Old
From his very first Big League game in June 2018, Jonathan Loaisiga has shown tremendous talent. His fastball touches 100 out of the ‘pen, his 90 mph changeup falls off the table, and his 84 mph curveball draws lots of swings on balls in the dirt. He commands his three plus pitches with an athletic, repeatable delivery. It was all there in that scoreless 5 inning, 3 hit debut, and again 10 days later when he 1-hit the Phillies over 5.1.
However, Loaisiga has not completed 5 frames in a game since. Through 56 career innings (24 games, 8 starts) he sports a poor 4.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The 5’11” Nicaraguan has been snake bit, missing all of 2014 and ‘15 with a shoulder injury then getting Tommy John surgery in 2016. Last year, he missed three months with a shoulder strain.
Yet when he’s on the field, Loaisiga is in the 89th percentile for both fastball and curveball spin rate, and he has struck out 70 batters in 56 MLB innings. When I saw Jonathan live this spring in Florida, I was extremely impressed. The delivery is textbook: no wasted movement, he drives through his legs and whips his arm with great speed, following through towards the hitter as opposed to falling off towards first. He locates his fastball down in the zone and gets a rising effect on it to beat you upstairs. Last season, he got Eddie Rosario to swing at a 97 mph pitch that was literally eye-level. The breaker tunnels with that high heater to freeze hitters as it drops into the zone. And while some changeups drop straight down, others run dramatically to his arm side: both deadly.
Going off his stats alone, you might think Loaisiga is destined for relief. Walks have been a major problem, one for every two innings in his major league career. But he only walked 33 in 177 minor league innings and his command could prove to be plus. If he beats the injury bug, he can be a legit No.3 starter, and in this short season where starters are only going to go 50-75 innings, I would absolutely give him a chance as opposed to relying on Happ. (J.A. did have a great September, but is down 2 miles an hour on his sinker from 91.5 in 2015-16 to 89.5 in ‘19, and has ditched the curveball that facilitated his 2015-18 success).
Clarke Schmidt, RHP, 24 YO
If you’re less optimistic about the former #1 Yankees pitching prospect, Loaisiga, let me sell you on their current #1, Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt was so good at South Carolina (1.34 ERA in his nine junior year starts) that the Yankees drafted him 16th overall even though he’d just had Tommy John surgery. Brian Cashman’s patience has paid off, as Schmidt is now a top-100 prospect coming off a strong season: 102 K over 91 innings between High-A and Double-A with a 3.47 ERA.
As you can see below, Schmidt’s curveball is a plus pitch on its way to becoming elite, with 1-7 movement in the low-80s. He throws a hard sinker 92-96 mph and his high-80s changeup works off of it nicely. Lastly, he can also come at you upstairs with a 4-seamer.
Schmidt hides the ball well and only issued 28 walks in those 91 innings. He did miss a month last year with elbow inflammation, but again, you’re not asking your starters to throw 150+ innings this year, so I say roll with the arms your opponents would least want to face. If you’re a Rays hitter, would you rather step in against Happ’s 90 mph sinker, having faced him as many as five times the past two seasons, or have to figure out Schmidt’s high-octane pitch mix, never having seen him before?
With the Yankees going new school by replacing 66-year-old pitching coach Larry Rothschild with 34-year-old Matt Blake, who embraces the Driveline data revolution, you’d think there’s less bias towards a veteran like Happ over these more explosive young’uns. Give these guys a chance to prove what they can do, and 2020 could be a year to remember.
Follow Jacob on Twitter @TheReelJZ
(Photo credit: Julio Cortez/AP and Mike Janes/AP)