The empirical evolution of analytics and sabermetrics in baseball is rapidly changing the difference between perceived value and actual value on the field. Player contracts, player development, the amateur draft… essentially anywhere one might examine today’s meta for modern baseball, you’ll find quantitative analysis. Never before has it been so important a player bring multiple tools to the table.
The idea is simple -- the more ways a player can help a team on the field, the more valuable he becomes. Alternatively, if the player or organization fails somewhere along the player development process, hopefully, his additional tools will lessen the blow and help buoy that player’s value in some other way. Essentially, in granular physics terms, if you’re a player that possesses plus force and plus momentum, you’re less likely to fail. That’s baseball now.
These days front offices are scouting players differently than ever. Most top 10 draft picks are headlined by high-ceiling, modest-floor athletes that are almost assuredly going to bring some semblance of worth to their organization’s big league ball club when the time comes. Rarely will you see a team buying high on a player with the potential to hit 50 dingers in a season, but a floor of a .190 hitter who can’t get on base.
Tooled up prospects are the new currency in major league baseball, and they’re one of the most valuable commodities an organization can hold.
I decided to dig in and try to identify a data set that could filter players who were not only providing plenty of pop at the plate, but also stealing bags when they got on base. Furthermore, I wanted the most polished, mature hitters only -- hitters that would draw their walks and avoid striking out -- essentially, guys with loud tools that refuse to let an at-bat or opportunity go to waste.
What I settled on was a:
slugging percentage (SLG) percentage of .500 or higher
a strikeout percentage (K%) of 23% of lower
a walk percentage (BB%) of 9.5% or higher
as well as having stolen 15 bases or more in 2019.
To qualify, players had to be 23 years of age, or younger. These guys are hitting the ball with authority, but aren’t sacrificing the quality of the at-bat to do so. They have an advanced approach at the plate and rarely fail to contribute in one way or another during a ballgame.
Put quite simply, age aside, only Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger would have qualified for this list in 2019.
These guys have the potential to be special.
Kyle Tucker - OF - Houston Astros
Kyle Tucker actually graduated from prospect status in 2019 after being a consensus top ten guy for the better part of three seasons. Having amassed almost 500 at-bats at Triple-A last season, it felt appropriate to include “Ted” in the list. He’s probably been ready to contribute on a full-time basis for well over a year now, but Houston’s glut of talent at the big league level has delayed his national ascension just a bit.
At 6-foot-4, Tucker boasts a beautiful left-handed swing with strong hands, plenty of loft, torque, and rotation -- thus, the nickname “Ted” (as in Ted Williams) was born. Tucker has easy 60-grade raw power that is starting to grade out toward 60-grade game power as well. The Tampa, FL. native exhibits above-average speed, ranking in the 71st percentile at the MLB-level, though there’s questions surrounding how the speed will develop over time. There’s no reason to believe Tucker won’t put on a show in 2020, ultimately supplanting Josh Reddick as the every day right fielder. At Minute Maid Park, he has a chance to blossom into one of the top corner outfielders in the game.
Jarred Kelenic - CF - Seattle Mariners
The only knock on Kelenic leading up to the 2018 draft was his Wisconsin roots. It wasn’t prototypical for star big leaguers to come from the cold weather Midwest, but Kelenic isn’t prototypical either. Blessed with a sweet left-handed swing, Kelenic displays some of the best balance you’ll find at the plate. His strong lower half has allowed him to tap into more power than most anticipated possible just two years ago. Early notions suggested he may not have the speed and instincts to stay in centerfield -- those assumptions have since been dispelled. Both his arm and his ability to play the field grade out above average, the arm possibly even more so.
The only remaining question on Kelenic, if you can call it one, is his fierce competitive streak. A total gym rat and workaholic, Kelenic expects to be great, and nothing short of it. He’s yet to face major adversity, or any sort of prolonged slump. Time will tell how exactly he handles those failures, and how quickly he can adjust.
More and more, Kelenic is looking like a .300 hitter with 30 home run potential at the big league level. The Grady Sizemore comparisons seem fit, though he’s likely to outperform the power numbers associated with the former Indians star. He’s a legitimate 30-20 guy and should get a taste of big league ball in 2020.
Dylan Carlson - OF - St. Louis Cardinals
It wasn’t always smooth sailing for Carlson having sputtered out of the gate in 2017, but he certainly found his stride and then some in 2019. After slashing .281/.364/.518 over 108 games in Double-A Springfield, the Cardinals promoted their former first round pick to Triple-A Memphis where he continued to tear the cover off the ball. A small sample size, Carlson slashed .361/.418/.681 at the minors highest level over the final 18 games of the season, though some of that is assuredly thanks to a bloated .429 BABIP.
Carlson is a switch-hitter who has really developed from the left side over the past two seasons. His right-handed approach at the plate is advanced, and his ability from the left side isn’t far behind, especially from a power standpoint. Some question whether Carlson will be the base-stealer he is now at the big league level, but the bat will undoubtedly play. There’s some Nick Markakis in there, with assuredly a little more pop than the latter. Carlson looks poised to become a .285 25-15 guy, maybe more.
Jeter Downs - SS - Los Angeles Dodgers
Figures the kid named after Derek Jeter would go on to be one of the more exciting prospects in the game.
Downs is going to be a prospect in 2020 with some of the biggest helium in the sport. After a promising age-19 season at A-ball with the Reds, Downs (as well as SP Josiah Gray) was flipped to the Dodgers for Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Matt Kemp and Kyle Farmer. This trade will not end well for Cincinnati.
Downs’ stock was rising with the Reds, but 2019 has taken it to another level. Having slashed .276/.362/.526 last season, Downs now firmly finds himself on several top 100 lists. Not a natural speedster, the Columbian born bluechip gets high marks for his IQ and instincts on the diamond. It remains to be seen whether Downs will ever get a chance to play shortstop at the big league level or whether a switch to second base or center field is in the cards. His swing can get a little long at times, but his quick hands and approach at the plate have drawn comparisons to Jean Segura.
Downs is a bit of a pull-happy hitter, but naturally, it’s where he finds most of his pop. His LD% and FB% rates have both continued to rise in recent years. Just 21 years old, Downs’ story is largely unwritten, though promising.
Short season ball has its fair share of standout performers as well, though for this exercise, we’ll wait and see how they perform in full-season levels before jumping to conclusions. That being said, we’d be remiss not to look even further into the future.
Noelvi Marte - SS - Seattle Mariners
Marte showed some of the loudest tools in the DSL in 2019 and is primed to debut stateside, likely at short-season Everett in 2020. An exceptional feel for finding barrel, and possessing elite bat-speed, Marte looks as if he will grow into above average, if not plus power. His 70 grade speed should last for some time. Even if he outgrows his body and is forced to move to third base or the outfield, the speed should remain above average at worst. The hit tool is good, the power is great, and his ability to run is plus. Footwork and arm accuracy have been warts for Marte on defense, but at 18 years old, he’s got plenty of time to develop into a viable option on the diamond to compliment his undeniable value at the plate.
Brenton Doyle - RF - Colorado Rockies
The Rockies’ fourth round pick in this years draft made quite an impression in his debut, though a lot of it should absolutely be chalked up as luck. Over 51 games, Doyle was the beneficiary of an unthinkable .484 BABIP. That, as you might have guessed, led all minor league ballplayers.
That’s not to say Doyle isn’t a talented player with a lot of promise. He did, after all, steal 17 bags and hit eight balls over the fence -- neither of those require batted ball luck. At 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, Doyle is an imposing presence on the field. The 50 GB% is alarming, but the 13.9 SwStr% leads one to believe he’s not just another swing-and-miss masher with fleet feet.
Jose Acosta - 3B - Cincinnati Reds
Acosta was a 2017 international signee for the Reds and certainly has not disappointed thus far. A switch-hitter, Acosta is pretty advanced from the left side. In fact, most of his damage this season came from that side. Brace yourself. Acosta slashed .531/.571/.776 from the left side -- good for a 1.347 OPS. Bonkers. The strong BB% and equally impressive K% make Acosta a definite name to watch in 2020 and moving forward.
That’s not to say Acosta isn’t without concerns. He too benefited from a robust BABIP, getting on base at a .478 clip for balls he put in play. A 27 SwStr% is awfully high, so time will tell whether he can handle advanced pitching. He’s not a thumper, so the hit tool will have to play for Acosta to breakthrough. All this being said, he almost assuredly won’t fit this list in due time.
Conclusion: Guys like Tucker, Kelenic, Carlson and (probably to a lesser degree) Downs are the next wave of players with major league star potential on the brink of breaking through into national prominence at the big league level. They may not have the loudest tools that jump off the page, but each possess above average, if not better, tools across the board.