This offseason has seen the posting and rumored posting of multiple players from Asia to try their hand at the big leagues. Not all of them will get major league contracts, but some could impact the 2020 season, and we're going to put together a "prospect list" of those who are coming over from Asia this offseason.
Interest in the Asian market from fans has spiked significantly since Shohei Ohtani came to the Los Angeles Angels. One of the first guys on Ohtani and one of the most well-versed on the Asian baseball market is Call To The Pen's Dave Hill. He and I talked significantly when I put together this list, so you will note multiple quotes.
1. Yoshi Tsutsugo, OF
ETA: 2020
Ceiling: 50
Realistic: 40
Three true outcome hitter will earn a big league job, but where he plays is the question.
After hitting 139 home runs the last four seasons in Japan, Tsutsugo was the top draw of the import market before the Rays signed him a 2/$12 million deal. The main reason is his prodigious power from the left side. His pull-side power is his definite strength, but he can exhibit power to all fields.
He is a three true outcomes player, however, and it would not be surprising if he struggled to hit for average. Dave mentioned a previous Asian import as a potential comparison:
"I do question whether or not he can handle a major league fastball, and he has some swing and miss in his game that will be exploited in the majors. He sort of reminds me of (Byungho) Park from Minnesota."
The defense is going to likely make Tsutsugo a DH at best, but his power will play. Interestingly enough the team announced him as a 3B/OF.
The short video below is a neat introduction to him and how revered he was in his home town.
2. Chih-Jung Liu, RHP
ETA: 2023
Ceiling: 55
Realistic: 35
Red Sox signee has bright upside on the mound with potential high-end relief floor
The Red Sox signed Liu in October from Taiwan where multiple clubs had scouted him as a switch-hitting shortstop as he took a break from pitching after his arm was overused early in his career. Though he's got potential as an above-average shortstop defender with upside at the plate, the Red Sox intend to use him on the mound.
From the hill, Liu works with a very high leg kick that propels him to the plate with a mid-90s fastball that can touch 98 along with a pair of low-80s offspeed pitches in a slider and a change. His slider has been noted for having multiple movements, as he can throw it with a sweeping motion or a sharp, distinct finish.
Liu really impresses me with his athleticism. He's got a little projection left to his frame, but there's still plenty of risk here to the profile.
3. Shogo Akiyama, OF
ETA: 2020
Ceiling: 45
Realistic: 45
High-quality outfield defender coming stateside late, but could still contribute
Had he been posted five seasons ago, Shogo Akiyama would have drawn significant interest coming to the U.S. in the midst of his peak. Instead, he's already seen notable steps back in his defense, taking him from an other-worldly defender to "just" a plus defender in center.
While he's posted three straight 20-homer seasons, Akiyama is more likely to be a guy who offers good on-base skills, a .270ish batting average, and low double digit power and steals for fantasy owners. Akiyama's speed is still above-average, but he's never been a great base stealer, with a success rate of just 63 percent in Japan.
When asking Dave about potential similar players, I mentioned current Brett Gardner as a potential comparable, and he had this to say:
"He's not what he was. Gardner is a very good comp. I thought Ellsbury with a little less speed, so Gardner works."
4. Kwang-hyun Kim, LHP
ETA: 2020
Ceiling: 45
Realistic: 40
Could flourish in a bullpen role, but likely to be signed as a starter first
Signed by the Cardinals to a 2-year, $8 million deal on Dec.17, this wasn’t the first time Kim attempted to come stateside. In 2014, Kim was posted by his KBO team under the old posting system, but at that time he was coming off years of elbow soreness and high walk totals. He and the Padres, who won his exclusive negotiating rights, could not come to a deal, and he returned to Korea. After the 2016 season, Kim underwent Tommy John surgery, and he's been a very different pitcher since returning.
Kim uses his long frame to generate good angle on his four-seam fastball, which runs in the 91-94 range with good spin. His best fastball is his sinker, which he will sometimes dip his arm slot to give hitters a different look. He also will dip the arm slot on his fork/split/change, keeping hitters honest on the two-seam.
Those pitches are just window dressing for Kim, however. His slider is absolutely elite, arguably as high as a 65-70 grade pitch. With the way he can work his two-seam and slider together while using his combo pitch sparingly, he'd be an elite reliever from the left side against hitters from both sides. But Kim's significantly improved his command numbers since TJS (just over 5 BB% since returning) along with the movement of his change and functionality of his four-seam pitch enough to potentially be an SP5.
5. Shun Yamaguchi, RHP
ETA: 2020
Ceiling: 45
Realistic: 40
Longtime reliever has been elite as starter and could be attractive in either role
For the first eight seasons of his NPB career, Yamaguchi started only nine games. He's now spent the last six seasons primarily as a starter, and he's really had similar numbers in both roles.
From Dave:
"In theory, he has a five pitch arsenal, but he barely uses his curve and two seamer. His four seamer is a low 90s/upper 80s pitch. Again, plays well in Japan, but won't here. However, he does use that very well to set up his splitter, which is easily his best pitch. That's the out pitch - and he could rack up a lot of grounders on that here. Slider has good break, but really isn't an out pitch either - it works more as a ground ball offering."
The Blue Jays took a shot at him at a very cheap price of a 2-year, $6 million contract where he’ll battle for a spot in the back of the rotation.
6. Josh Lindblom, RHP
ETA: 2020
Ceiling: 45
Realistic: 40
Return to KBO unlocks rotation potential and leads to a three-year deal
Lindblom bounced between affiliated minor league baseball and the KBO for three seasons before returning in 2018 with a different edge to his pitching. That different edge allowed him to win the KBO's top pitcher award in 2019.
What was that edge? Lindblom has seemingly mastered the mystery of spin. While he works only around 90-91 mph, his fastball spin rate is extremely high (2600+ RPM) while his splitter is nearly the opposite, spinning at such a low rate that he's darned near seeing knuckleball spin rates.
He does rely heavily on a sinker/splitter combination, though in theory, he offers a four-pitch mix. Working with a team that can encourage the work he’s already done to maximize his spin rates will be a positive. He signed in Milwaukee three years and just over $9 million guaranteed, with incentives that could earn him up to $18 million.
7. Joely Rodriguez, LHP
ETA: 2020
Ceiling: 45
Realistic: 35
Incredible raw stuff finally puts it together in Japan
Watching Joely Rodriguez on the mound had always been a frustrating proposition from the time he was originally signed by the Pittsburgh Pirates over a decade ago. Now after time in the minors with four major league organizations and two seasons in Japan, he's back, hoping to finally turn that frustration into excitement.
The frustrating part about watching Rodriguez before he left for Japan was his lack of results to match his impressive stuff. He has a fastball that reaches into the upper 90s at its best and sits around 94-96 along with a sharp-breaking slider that works in the 86-89 mph range. He has focused primarily on his two-seam fastball and slider in Japan, which significantly improved his control numbers and allowed his impressive stuff to generate more strikeouts. He had a 32 K% in Japan in 2019 after never posting a full season exceeding 23 K%% in spite of his impressive stuff.
In watching video, Rodriguez made two notable changes in his one year that seem to work together in helping his control. He used to set his hands low in his delivery, but he now holds them chest-high, reducing arm swing in his delivery. He also changed his lead foot placement slightly toward first base. His weight seemed to always be out of balance on his back leg at the peak of his delivery previously, and now he’s comfortable at that same point and appears poised to come downhill at a hitter. Working with an organization like Texas should only help. Rodriguez signed a two-year deal with the Rangers for $5.5 million with an option that could make the deal 3/$8M.
8. Brooks Raley, LHP
ETA: 2020
Ceiling: 40
Realistic: 35
After years abroad, Raley returns, but his stuff may be better-suited for a role change
Raley spent three years bouncing between Triple-A and the majors with three different organizations before heading to Korea. While he’s had success in Korea, the numbers haven’t been elite, and many have wondered why a guy who featured a fastball that topped out at 90 mph would be a desired target this offseason.
It’s not his fastball as much as it is everything else he does. Raley works with a four-seam and two-seam fastball that both get excellent, unique movement due to high spin and work on his use of axis of that spin. Raley also features a cut fastball along with two varieties of changeup, a circle change and a split change. His best pitch by grade would be his slider, an above-average pitch that he can throw into the upper-80s that breeds deception thanks to how he tunnels it with his other fastballs. His repertoire is completed with a 12-6 curveball. If you’re doing the counting, that’s seven pitches (and eight looks with the multiple ways to throw the slider). Typically, that’d be an issue for most pitchers, but Raley has really learned to use spin and axis movement on the ball.
However a ball change in Korea led to some struggles in 2019. The seams were reportedly different and he didn’t get the same break on his pitches. Raley could pare down to a combo of his two-seam, splitter, and slider and be a very good middle reliever, but his ability to utilize all of his pitches could allow him to succeed as a backend starter.
9. Ryosuke Kikuchi, IF
ETA: 2020
Ceiling: 40
Realistic: 35
Defensive wizard has MLB glove, but perhaps not MLB bat
Over the last eight seasons, there were times (heck, some may argue presently) that would consider Kikuchi the best defensive second baseman in the world, no matter the league. He is a wizard with the glove and he'd be a very good shortstop.
Kikuchi may end up getting a minor league deal and find his way to the majors based on that defense, but he'd bring a below-average contact bat with average power and average basepath speed. He's likely going to have difficulty finding a big league deal.
10. Jae-Hwan Kim, 1B
ETA: 2020
Ceiling: 40
Realistic: 30
Power-only prospect has significant questions in his MLB skills
Dave's review of Kim's posting called him a "thrift store Tsutsugo". I think that could even be overrating Kim in watching more video on him.
Kim has taken advantage of high-offense environments in Korea 2016-2018 to club 116 home runs. However, a move to a new ball in 2019 saw him hit only 15 homers, along with dropping his slugging by over 200 points from the previous season.
Kim's got legit raw above-average power, but there are some big holes in his swing that will lead to him likely struggling to make consistent enough contact to be a viable MLB hitter. He could end up with a minor league deal, going to Triple-A and showing he's able to handle stateside ball before being brought up to the big leagues.
Not yet posted
Sung-Bum Na, OF
ETA: 2020
Ceiling: 50
Realistic: 45
Poor timing strikes again on one of the top bats in Korea
Coming out of prep school, Na was an elite pitcher and hitter, scouted by MLB teams on both sides of the ball. However, an Achilles injury ended his major league pursuit at that time, leading him to a career in the KBO.
That career has been very good to Na, who has hit 145 home runs and slashed .318/.383/.534 over a seven-year KBO career as an outfielder. Of course, with posting on the horizon this offseason, Na hired Scott Boras, and he was in the midst of one of his best years ever, slashing .366/.443/.645 in what turned out to be an offensively depressed season in the KBO. But a gruesome leg injury ended his 2019 and is a likely reason why he's delayed his posting at this time.
Na's got a powerful swing, with legit potential plus power in his left-handed cut. He has an above-average eye at the plate as well. A long swing could mean for a potential drop in average, but looking at the projections for Shin-Soo Choo on his B-Ref page gives an idea of what to expect from Na: .255/.356/.431, 25 doubles, 21 home runs. He will draw plenty of interest if he does come over, especially from American League clubs.
Yet to come
There are more players I will mention that fans should be very excited to see stateside if they are given a chance to come over.
The first is the guy that Dave highlights in his piece here, Tetsuto Yamada . Multiple have referred to Yamada as the Mike Trout of Japan, though he plays second base, not outfield. He recorded his fourth 30/30 season in five seasons in 2019, and he's been noted for his walk rate throughout his career, with a .401 career OBP in 964 NPB games. Yamada would be old enough that he would not be limited by the bonus pool spending cap, so he could be in line for an incredible contract as soon as next offseason.
The second is a guy that many saw dominate in the Premier12 competition this winter, Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is likely not going to be posted for another two or three years, but his offensive potential is significant, and he should still be in his peak years when he's posted. Suzuki projects as a corner outfielder. In the Premier12 tourney, he posted a .444/.529/1.037 line with a 5/3 BB/K ratio over 27 AB against some of the top players in the world. He was selected MVP of the competition.
Finally, a pair of arms are on teams that rarely post their players in their "youth", so it's very possible that they'll be well beyond their peaks if they ever are allowed to post. The first is righty Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been one of the most dominant pitchers in NPB. He works with a high-spin fastball that works into the mid-90s and uses two plus breaking pitches along with a fork/change.
The other pitcher to know is Kodai Senga, and he could be an elite option if SoftBank posts him. He works with a fastball that gets into the mid-90s, a biting slider, and one of the filthiest splitters that you'll ever see. He's able to not only generate tremendous strikeout numbers but also has the control to avoid walks. Knee injuries and nagging soreness in his elbow, back, and shoulder could make him a reliever, but the stuff is truly impressive.