There are many difficult aspects to running a major league baseball team. After all, as they say, if it was easy, anyone could do it.
However, one really difficult aspect that stands out above the rest if prospect acquisition and development. Statistics take a while to stabilize, and if projections have an error curve at the MLB level, how much variance is there with prospects?
According to Scott McKinney of Royals Review, of Baseball America’s top 100 prospects from 1996-2003, nearly 70% of them posted Wins Above Replacements (WAR) on average of 1.50 or less. Mind you, these are the prospects deemed to be the premier young players in the game. Now, development is much better now, so the hit rate is surely higher, but it’s still feasible to say that the average prospect has no better than a 50% chance of “panning out”.
Yet, as they say, “replace the fear of the unknown with the fear of curiosity.” Yes, the harsh reality is that an extraordinary amount of prospects won’t reach their highest range of possible outcomes, but we can combat this by changing our frame of mind. At the end of the day, decisions need to be made on a prospect’s mean likely outcome, but when it comes to writing and discussing prospects, there isn’t any reason not to dream about them becoming future impact contributors for their respective organizations!
This leads me to a project that I am very excited to share with the fantasy community: a prospect projection system. Based on research I have conducted at mvpsportstalk.com on the stability of amateur baseball statistics from college to the minors to the majors, I have constructed a model aimed at projecting the future value of each prospect, taking into account their performance in key facets of play, which are then regressed with their tool grades. The model we will focus on today, however, looks more towards their fantasy impact than their real-life value, though there is definitely a strong correlation between the two!
Remember, even with an objective projection system, there will never be one “perfect way” to project the future of prospects. At the end of the day, it’s all mainly an educated guess, and while we’d love to have a fortune teller foreshadow each prospect’s future, that’d also take away from the beauty of this process. Thus, while these prospects are listed in order from highest projected dynasty value to least, there is certainly an error bar; the 40th listed prospect could easily end up more valuable than the 15th. At the end of the day, it is up to the fantasy player to make a subjective decision based on the objective model.
While I have tried my best to inform the model of the player’s likely role (relief risk, playing time), it cannot 100% take into account the development prowess of the organization, the player’s situation/ETA, or other minor aspects that certainly are worthy in being a part of the evaluation of a player. There will hopefully never be a time where decisions are made in blind fashion off of a projection system, but using a model as a framework for decision making can be extremely helpful.
With that being said, let us get to the projection model! Listed are over 1150 prospects, with an overall 0-100 rating based on dynasty value in a 5x5 OBP Roto format:
Full Spreadsheet HERE:
There are definitely some interesting rankings to take note of here, though it all starts with the Padres. Just when you thought they couldn’t have enough impact young players, they have the top two rated dynasty prospects in the entire minor leagues! Many may be starting to grow impatient with Mackenzie Gore, as he hasn’t been able to find his way into the majors in what is a stacked pitching staff, but he also is still only 22-years-old, has a deep arsenal with elite command, and has struck well over double-digit batters per nine at every level of the minors. There also isn’t any relief risk or minor command/pitch usage issues to worry about, which separates him for Tarik Skubal, who is tremendously undervalued currently as a fantasy prospect.. Pitchers are generally volatile, though you obviously need a lot of pitching depth to maintain sustainable success in dynasty leagues, which is why Logan Gilbert, Luis Patino, Nate Pearson, Casey Mize, and Ian Anderson’s strong balance of strong evaluations and performance cannot be overstated. From the 2020 draft, keep a close eye on Asa Lacy and Max Meyer, who project as excellent strikeout artists at the pro level.
Projecting recent high-school draftees like CJ Abrams and Corbin Carroll can be difficult, but with their cited offensive prowess in addition to their elite speed, which projects well for stolen bases, their fantasy floors are ridiculously strong. Stolen bases are generally undervalued when it comes to fantasy, as many tend to focus on the elite offensive performers and those with strong statcast numbers, and that is tremendously understandable- it’s much easier to put your faith in someone whose real-life value is quite high. However, when it comes to fantasy, do not underrate steals representing a very high floor for your team, which makes players like Vidal Brujan, Greg Jones, and most high-end baserunners/overall plus athletes strong value plays overall.
The future of the catcher position is something to monitor. There aren’t a lot of young catchers ingrained at the position, and because of that, Adley Rutschman is likely to be propped up draft boards. In general, though, I’d lean towards not investing heavy with the catcher position in general, with players like Ryan Jeffers, Patrick Bailey, Bo Naylor, and Dillon Dingler being better values considering how less of an investment would be required with them. With the automated strike zone likely coming as well, offense could be on the rise at the position not before long, so over drafting catchers based on how they currently compare to their peers probably isn’t the optimal strategy.
With a strong group of college pitching talent coming in the 2021 MLB draft, it is clear that there are plenty of young players to get excited about for the future. As you go about building your dynasty drafts, I’d always recommend trying to accumulate as much depth as possible, and never being completely tied to one prospect. Thus, you’re in better position to benefit from the overall variance of their development and don’t risk potentially not having a pipeline of young players to replenish your roster.
There is simply so much unknown with the game of baseball, from each player’s development to injuries. Hopefully, this model can help all dynasty players find strong potential contributors for the future, as well players to keep an eye on. One of the best parts about fantasy sports is being able to find your “sleeper” and growing attached to them, and I’d be lying if I didn’t tell that this model has made me focus and root harder for the Tarik Skubals of the world. The players are the lifeblood of the sport, and with this model, my hope is that we can celebrate how much young talent could be entering the league. The game of baseball is better when the quality of play is as high as can be, after all.