Two weeks ago, I introduced my prospect projection model. The follow breakdown can be found there, but, essentially, utilizing research on the stability of amateur baseball statistics and regressing based on tool grades, the model is able to compute a player’s projected output.
The exciting aspect of prospect analysis is that there isn’t one perfect way to do so. After all, the rule of thumb is that the average prospect has at least a 50 percent chance of not “panning out”, and if there was a flawless method of forecasting their future, that hit rate would be much higher. There will be those that analyze them from more of a numbers perspective, and those who evaluate them more from a scouting perspective. Neither is better than the other, but, rather, meshing both together leads to the best overall results- having as much information and viewpoints as possible is always best.
By regressing with tool grades and playing time projections, I do my best to utilize as much information as possible, and overall, there is a decent relationship (r= .62) between my model’s rankings of prospects and what our scouting team has at Prospects Live. Even then, however, some outliers emerge. We are all hoping to gain an edge in our dynasty leagues, and based on my model’s projection for them, these ten appear to be undervalued.
Note: The last Top 500 Dynasty update came in mid-February, so a lot of the breakouts that are obvious now were not reflected back then.
#1: LHP Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins
Model Rank: 64
Prospects Live Rank: 178
This is sort of cheating, though heading into the year, my model was much higher on Rogers than consensus. The reason overall here is quite simple: the model is intrigued by those with strong K-BB ratios, and despite a 4.56 ERA in the minors, his 3.92 K-BB ratio between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A was very impressive. Remember, he was only 21-years-old at the time.
Even despite his first-round pedigree, there wasn’t as much hype around Rogers as you’d anticipate. After all, he’s a projectable lefty with athleticism and a power fastball, which is a very valued prototype generally. Whether it was concerns about his breaking ball or the misleading ERA, he was cast aside compared to other Marlins pitchers, but he now may be the best of the bunch. In 50 innings pitched in the majors, he has posted a 32.3% K rate and 15.3% swinging strike rate. Meanwhile, the slider has yielded a 43.4% whiff rate, as he mainly can throw it versus lefties with the prowess of his changeup.
At the end of the day, Rogers featured plus command grades, is a lefty who can touch 97 mph, misses bats in the zone, has a horizontal breaking ball and fantastic changeup. I’d definitely be buying into his current success, and am encouraged by model’s projection of him simply based on minor-league numbers.
#2: LHP Ethan Small, Milwaukee Brewers
Model Rank: 48
Prospects Live Rank: 231
Sticking with the theme of productive lefties with first-round pedigree, Ethan Small wasn’t someone who was considered a likely first-round pick in 2019, but that didn’t stock the Brewers from selecting #28 overall. In short time, I expect them to reap the rewards of that selection.
Small underwent Tommy John surgery in his sophomore year at Mississippi State, but totaled over 100 innings in the following two seasons, and didn’t miss a beat from a production standpoint. Overall, he struck out 35.2% of the batters he faced, posted a 4.24 K-BB ratio, and was as consistent of a performer as one can be in the SEC.
A player like this would figure to be a very well-regarded prospect, but something must be missing with Small. Maybe it’s his fastball, which generally sits in the low 90s, yet the pitch has elite vertical pitch shape and thus misses much more bats in the zone than expected; the vertical movement produced by it is exceptional and his release height contributes to a very low vertical approach angle. Also, similarly to Rogers, he may not have an elite breaking ball, yet when you’re able to succeed with a fastball and changeup as a north/south pitcher, the need for it to be more than adequate lessens greatly, especially when you have strong command. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Small take a similar path to Rogers, and if he tears up the minor leagues as my model thinks he will, his stock should only rise.
Head to the 25:30 mark of our most recent Prospects Live Dynasty Podcast to hear Eddy, Geoff and Matt break down Small and how to evaluate soft-tossing pitchers in general.
#3: LHP Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Indians
Model Rank: 77
Prospect Live Rank: 227
Another pitcher without elite velocity but other key fastball characteristics, Joey Cantillo appears likely to be the next pitching prospect to consistently perform and have many wondering what they missed in him.
As a former 16th-round pick, Cantillo wasn’t exactly on people’s radar when he entered professional baseball in 2017. Nevertheless, he has quickly exceeded expectations, striking out 34.37% of the batters he faced in 101 innings at Single-A with a 4.43 K-BB ratio. Not too shabby for a 16th-round pick.
Cantillo doesn’t overpower hitters, yet he is another vertical approach angle darling, so it’s not surprising he has outperformed expectations thus far. Meanwhile, he is cited as being a strong athlete with plus command, and, you guessed it, a productive changeup. It’s pretty easy to see what Cleveland saw in him when they acquired him in the Mike Clevinger trade, as this is generally an organization that prioritizes command and underlying characteristics more than others.
With a terrific organization from a pitching development standpoint, a strong transition to professional baseball, and the classic profile of an undervalued prospect, Cantillo is a prospect who may quickly ascend up the ranks and into a middle-of-the-rotation spot in Cleveland in a high percentile outcome scenario. Given his smaller track record, the margin for error with his projection may be higher, yet there is a lot to buy into here at such a low price.
#4: LHP Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels
Model Rank: 44
Prospects Live Rank: 170
Tell me if you’ve heard this before: this player is a lefty with strong production yet underwhelming velocity.
It’s becoming quite the common theme on this list, and I’m very excited to see how Reid Detmers develops. Taken with the 10th overall pick by the Angels in the 2020 draft, his 36 K% at Louisville, despite not getting to finish out his junior year due to the COVID-19 shutdown, is quite intriguing.
Detmers’ fastball velocity sits in the low 90s, yet some pitchers just know how to pitch, and he fits the bill. His excellent command of the pitch allowed him to miss bats and generated an extraordinary amount of called strikes in college, and he combines it with a curveball that we gave a plus grade to in our Angels 2021 Prospects List. Add in the fact he has had no injury issues and handled a large workload in college, and you’re getting a very high floor here.
At a mean level, Detmers should profile as a Mike Minor-esque middle-of-the-rotation starter. However, if he reaches a higher percentile outcome, the possibilities are much higher. Good players tend to continue to be good players, and this motto is quite apparent with him. I wouldn’t even be surprised if he makes an impact for the Angels by the end of this season.
#5: RHP Joe Ryan, Tampa Bay Rays
Model Rank: 42
Prospects Live Rank: 161
The last pitcher on this list, Joe Ryan was quite the college performer, posting a 5.74 K-BB ratio, albeit not versus power-five competition . Yet, likely due to quality of competition concerns, he fell to the 7th round of the 2018 draft by the Rays, though I’m sure Tampa Bay had him valued higher than that. They tend to be very good at playing to the draft like a game of checkers, after all.
My research has shown that small-school pitchers tend to fare better than small-school hitters, which makes sense; their actions are much more independent, which makes them less subject to the quality of their competition. For this reason, I’m not shocked that he’s acclimated well to the minors, posting an absurd 37 K% and 5.71 K-BB ratio in 160 innings.
Now, Ryan has been old for the levels he’s played at, with only 13.1 innings above High-A. Even with some regression, however, his numbers would still figure to be quite strong as he progresses up the chain. Now on the Rays’ 40-man roster, the 24-year-old will likely make an impact for the MLB team, and role is really the main concern here. As long as he can be seen as a five-inning starter, he has fantasy utility moving forward, and even if he starts as a bulk reliever, dynasty owners shouldn’t lose faith in him. The transition is more common than you’d expect, as Freddy Peralta is demonstrating, and similarly to Peralta, Ryan is with a progressive organization that will put him in a position to succeed. I am very excited about his potential future impact.
#6: OF Khalil Lee, New York Mets
Model Rank: 57
Prospects Live Rank: 186
This is year the difference between real-life value and fantasy value is important, even though the two generally intersect. There are legitimate concerns about Khalil Lee’s ability to hit for average, which explains why the Royals were open to trading him in the three-team Andrew Benintendi trade this offseason, and this has caused his prospect stock to slip.
In fantasy, however, Lee has very underrated value. Although this doesn’t have batting average leagues, his plate discipline (11.9% walk rate in AA 2019) helps him in on-base leagues, and all indications are he has plus raw power. The power production hasn’t been consistent, but that’s mainly due to an absurdly high ground ball rate (59.3%), which is an easier tweak than establishing plate discipline or physical tools. Plus, when he gets on base, his fantasy value could be immense. After all, he stole 53 bases in Double-A in 2019, and although that number will go down for obvious reasons, it does give him a very high floor in fantasy. Overall, you’re buying into his plate discipline and some power tweaks giving him enough of an offensive foundation to complement the stolen bases, while his defense in the outfield allows him to get playing time. That’s a relatively favorable bet given where he’s being drafted, as the pay-off is pretty high with the floor to combine with it.
#7: C Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
Model Rank: 98
Prospects Live Rank: 219
Catchers are always difficult to come by in fantasy, so when one projects as potentially productive offensively, you generally want to take note of, especially when he’s a switch hitter.
That’s where Cal Raleigh comes into play. Between High-A and Double-A last year, the Florida State product posted a .246 isolated power and 10 BB%, two very important peripheral numbers to watch with prospects, which are strong numbers for a catcher. That correlates with his production in college- a .396 on-base percentage - and although his college power numbers weren’t elite, his trajectory of contact (over 50% fly ball) should allow him to optimize his raw power. Although there is risk here, there’s also less of a bar for Raleigh to clear, especially since his switch-hitting ability could allow him to avoid a catcher platoon timeshare.
#8: C Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Twins
Model Rank: 75
Prospects Live Rank: 164
I like catchers for a list like this because they tend to get boosted up in drafts due to the scarcity of offensive production at the position, and my confidence level in Ryan Jeffers is high, even moreso than Raleigh.
Jeffers won’t ever hit for average, yet he has consistently run isolated powers over .160, and projects one a power-hitting catcher with enough walks at the next level. Thus far, he hasn’t been great at big-league level, as strikeouts and ground balls have been a issue, but he’s shown he ability to hit the ball hard, and between scouting grades on the power and his offense (120+ wRC+ at every level) in the minors, I expect him to eventually establish himself as the Twins’ catcher of the future. If he can, there is definite upside for him to be a top-ten player at a thin position, which is noteworthy with his projections being higher than a lot of catchers ranked ahead of him.
#9: UTIL Greg Jones, Tampa Bay Rays
Model Rank: 32
Prospects Live Rank: 140
Stolen bases are incredibly valuable in fantasy, and when you combine that with on-base ability and defensive versatility, and there is a lot to like with Greg Jones.
Drafted with the 22nd overall pick by the Rays in 2019, Jones posted an absurd .453 on-base percentage at UNC Wilmington, walking in 15.33% of his plate appearances. Meanwhile, with a .202 isolated power, his power developed in his final year of college, which is noteworthy; my research shows that power is much more subject to development in college, while on-base percentage is the clear indicator of future success,
Then, there is Jones’ speed. He’s seen as a potential 80-grade runner, and his stolen base numbers have been off the charts at every level. Thus, if he gets on base at the level he is capable of, he’ll be incredibly valuable for fantasy owners. Like Lee, you’re getting the plate discipline and stolen bases with enough power, but Jones’ offensive skillset is better and he also has the versatility to play middle infield and center field, which increases his path to everyday at bats, as does his switch-hitting skills. You’ll want to buy into his stock now before he has the minor-league numbers to back the foundation set by a very intriguing skillset.
#10: OF Jordyn Adams, Los Angeles Angels
Model Rank: 29
Prospects Live Rank: 104
Teams who believe in their development prowess will sometimes bet on intriguing athletes coming out of high school, and it certainly tool guts for the Angels to not only draft Jordyn Adams with the 17th overall pick in 2018, but also make sure to get him to forego a commitment to be a two-sport athlete (football) at North Carolina.
That risk is now paying off for the Angels. Adams has been able to showcase all of his physical tools, but it’s been his overall polish that has been impressive. At Single-A in 2019, he posted a 11.7 BB% and .346 OBP, which led to a 110 wRC+ overall. Yes, he only posted a .108 isolated power, but that is more due to a 50% ground ball rate than a tools issue. In fact, he’s seen as someone with pretty clear raw power.
Remember, on-base ability tends to show itself early, whereas power is more subject to overall development. Thus, Adams’ offensive foundation is much stronger than it would appear on paper. Oh, and don’t worry, he’s also an 80-grade runner who’ll steal plenty of bases. With the power likely to develop, him demonstrating on-base prowess, and his stolen bases with the likelihood of a lot of future playing time in center field, his abilities are tantalizing. Remember, he just now starting playing baseball full-time, and that cannot even be accounted for in the projection model. Both in terms of his projection and his unique combination of skillset and background, there’s a lot to him pointing to him supplanting Jo Adell as the true top young outfielder in their system.
Overview
With their generally being clear alignment in prospect evaluation, it is nice to identify some outliers. Of the noticeable trends, the ones that were clear were a slight overvaluation of fastball velocity rather than fastball shape, concerns about breaking balls when a changeup is present, a combination of plate discipline, tools, and speed, as well as there not being an adjustment made for the scarcity of catching. Of this group, Rogers obviously is my favorite, though he’s no longer a sleeper, and I’d say Ethan Small, Jordyn Adams, and Greg Jones would be the ones I have the most overall confidence in. Regardless, all of these players appear to be undervalued, and could be great additions to your dynasty team as you seek for surplus value.