Anthony Rendon (+2)
He’s been on a tear as of late, with a xwOBA +197 points over his last 50 PAs. He homered in 4 straight games earlier this week. He’s a legitimate AL MVP candidate this year, with 1.7 fWAR tied with Brandon Lowe of the Rays for tops among AL position players. And his swing is just beautiful to watch.
Javier Baez (-3)
Strikeout rate is up to 34%, walk rate is down to 4%, xwOBA is down 86 points over his last 50 PAs. Barrel rate is down. He’s seeing more breaking balls and less fastballs this year, and he’s just not seeing them well at all. His zone swing rate is down from career highs, and his zone contact rate is nearly 20 percentage points below MLB average. Still just a slight bump for now, hoping that a correction comes and he gets hot.
Tommy Pham (OUT)
Unfortunately Pham broke his hamate and has undergone surgery. He’s going to be on the shelf for a minimum of 4-6 weeks, and hamate fractures are notoriously tricky for hitters to recover quickly from. Move him off the board.
Ozzie Albies (-18)
He was cold before he went on the shelf with a wrist injury, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the two are linked. Braves manager Brian Snitker said that there’s still no timetable for Albies return to the lineup.
Manny Machado (+6)
A walkoff grand slam and a fantastic defensive play hit the highlight reels for Machado this week. But he’s been slowly simmering back toward elite hitter status, with a rolling xwOBA +106 points over his last 50 PAs. His zone swing % is up a bit, and his chase rate is way down (21.2%, nearly 7 percentage points below his career average), so he’s forcing pitchers to pitch to him in the zone if they want to get him out, and his walk rate is up to 14.6% in 2020. He just needs his hard hit batted ball profile to swing back to 2017-2018 levels to take the next step forward.
Yordan Alvarez (OUT)
The young slugger is out for the year after undergoing knee surgery. Brutal news.
Nick Castellanos (-1)
This year has kind of been a rollercoaster for Castellanos. I was surprised to see his rolling xwOBA down 213 points over his last 50 PAs. He did a lot of damage against fastballs early on, but pitchers have adjusted by feeding him more breaking stuff. Unfortunately for Nick, he’s posted a measly .245 xwOBA on breakers this year. He chases after them (33.6% chase rate) but has been putrid on contact outside of the zone this year (39.5% chase contact percentage is 20 points below the MLB average in 2020). He will need to adjust to maintain this spot in the Top 100.
Gleyber Torres (-11)
He’s out “at least two weeks” after suffering left hamstring and left quad strains. Which is a shame, as he was starting to turn things back around before the injury (+121 xwOBA over his last 50 PAs).
DJ LeMahieu (-4)
“Thumb injury” is not a great phrase to hear before an update about one of your top fantasy hitters. DJLM is likely down for at least two more weeks, assuming all goes well.
Kris Bryant (-3)
The Cubs finally pulled the trigger and put Bryant on the 10-day IL due to a finger injury. Just a slight bump for now as the injury doesn’t sound too serious.
Kyle Schwarber (-3)
Just a slight drop for Schwarbs as he’s still hitting the ball hard, he’s just struggling making contact so far this year. Is it a pitch recognition thing for him? He’s swinging at stuff in the zone about 5% below his career average, while chasing about 5% more than his career average. Don’t panic yet.
Marcus Semien (+8)
The ultimate compiler, Marcus Semien has started in the leadoff spot in every game for Oakland so far this season. And how his bat is finally heating up as well, with a rolling xwOBA +150 points over his last 50 PAs. Trying to get ahead of the curve with this ranking.
Matt Chapman (+13)
Oakland’s franchise player has appeared in all 27 games for the team this season, and he’s swinging a hot bat at the moment. Chapman is finding the barrel at a career high clip in 2020 so far (18.7% barrel rate), and the results are starting to come along for the ride (.598 slugging average trending toward his .613 xSLG mark). Just need to see his contact and walk rates return toward his career norms and this is an extremely productive hitting profile.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+10)
Young Vlad is getting his timing worked out, so he’s lifting the ball a little more and making a little more contact this year, while hammering the ball with a 49.3% hard hit rate in 2020. Pitchers are trying to attack him with more fastballs this year, but he’s punishing them (.542 xSLG on fastballs in 2020). Hitting more line drive lasers (30.7% LD-rate) than deep flies, so look for his batting average to keep climbing toward the .280 range.
Jose Abreu (+4)
+143 rolling xwOBA over his last 50 PAs. He’s always hit left-handers well, but this year he’s locked in against righties too, with a fantastic 139 OPS+ against them in 2020 so far. He’s also clutch, he’s always hit well with 2-outs and with runners in scoring position. He’s leading the surging White Sox offense at the moment.
Tim Anderson (+13)
The White Sox offense really missed Anderson when he was on the shelf, but he’s been sizzling since returning (+171 rolling xwOBA over last 50 PAs). He’s 2nd in the AL with 23 runs scored despite a 10-day IL stint. Last season he was the AL batting champ. This season, he could be part of the AL MVP conversation.
Yasmani Grandal (-6)
Plagued by contact issues this year, don’t hesitate to replace Grandal in traditional roto with batting average as a category.
Khris Davis (OUT)
Hitting in the bottom of the order and really struggling vs RHP, Davis is at risk of becoming a short-side platoon player with only UTIL position eligibility.
David Dahl (OUT)
He’s off to the IL with a lower back issue, and he was hitting poorly prior to the official injury designation (-118 xwOBA over last 50 PAs).
Dylan Moore (OUT)
Landed on the IL with a wrist injury, derailing one of the most fun breakouts of the 2020 season.
Franmil Reyes (NEW)
Large human on the loose. Franny’s +320 xwOBA over the last 50 PAs leads all of baseball during that timeframe. Locked into the 5th slot in the order and DH position for Cleveland this season.
Brandon Lowe (NEW)
Former Maryland Terrapin is currently tied for the lead in fWAR for AL position players. Tampa has him primarily hitting in the #2 spot with an OBP north of .400. He’s especially destroying left-handed pitching (292 sOPS+ vs. lefties in 2020). Big jump for a guy that should have been on this list already if I’m being honest with myself.
Randal Grichuk (NEW)
Playing everyday for a resurgent Blue Jays offense, Grichuk has rode his recent hot streak to a spot batting 2nd in the order. His underlying metrics look pretty legit, with an xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA all in the top 10% of the league. He’s not chasing (27.5% chase rate), and he’s doing damage against fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed stuff. Time to buy.
Jesse Winker (NEW)
All hail the universal DH! The slot gave Winker the opportunity to earn regular playing time, and he’s responded by crushing the ball in 2020, with a 99th percentile xwOBA. He’s also managing to hit against left-handers as well, with a 170 sOPS+ vs. lefties showing a big improvement for him against his career numbers.
Hunter Dozier (NEW)
He’s a guy that I liked coming into the season, now he’s back healthy and hitting 3rd or 4th in the Royals order everyday. He’s walking a ton so far, and his rolling xwOBA is up .143 points to start the year. And he’s a stolen base threat on a team that gets the green light. I think he finishes the year as a Top-100 hitter.