In our Prospects Live Discord server, a reader was talking about a kerfuffle in his dynasty league regarding a Mike Trout trade that went down.
Side A Receives: Mike Trout
Side B Receives: Andrew Benintendi, Julio Urias, Jo Adell and Jasson Dominguez
Some league mates were reportedly calling for a veto and making a big stink. I told him it wasn’t veto worthy, but it’s heavily favored to the Trout side.
So naturally the question arises: What does it take to trade away Mike Trout?
First, let’s take a moment to appreciate how long we’ve been able to use Trout as the crown jewel of dynasty assets. For the last seven years, the future Hall of Famer — and likely the greatest to ever play the game — has averaged .308/.422/.587. He topped both redraft and dynasty league drafts for years. And even in the last three years, where he’s failed to play more than 140 games, he gives you the output of a full 162.
Can you see why it might be hard to trade away someone like that? And why your leaguemates might be peeved when they think he wasn’t properly valued in a deal?
Note: For this piece, I’m assuming fairly standard dynasty leagues. Salary leagues are a different animal.
The Future of Trout
Dynasty trades are exciting because you get to imagine a player on your team for multiple seasons. Thus, we should look at what to expect from Trout moving forward. I called on my colleague Phil Goyette, creator of Philthy Projections, to map out what Trout’s next three years look like. Why three years? Three years should be the maximum you need to try and form your team into a competitor.
Trout Averages from 2021-23: .293/.435/.619 with 108/44/97/17
How can Trout be so good in his age 29-31 seasons? Isn’t he supposed to drop off a little? Actually, according to Bill James’ model about aging, the prime ages for home runs, to name one category, are 25-32. This places Trout right in the middle of that window. Not to mention the whole “generational player” thing that should see him buck some aging curves that has plagued lesser mortals.
I have no qualms about that slash line. Trout has morphed into arguably the best power hitter in baseball as his .331 ISO from 2017-19 is tops in that timespan. The only area I’ll take the under is his steals projection. Trout attempted just 13 steals in 2019, and just one in 2020. More and more it’s looking like we’re on the edge of single-digit steal seasons, and that’s part of the reason Ronald Acuña overtook him in NFBC as the top pick in March.
Get The Centerpiece Bat
So what should you be aiming for when trading away Trout? Presumably you want to build yourself up for a run soon. Try at all costs to avoid complete teardowns, especially in money leagues. Instead aim for young bats that can contribute in the next five seasons.
The key to a Trout return is a near elite young bat, multiple if possible. Aim for players under 25 who have had one great season under their belt already. The tough part is you’re not likely to land Juan Soto or Ronald Acuña anymore even in a one for one, unless it’s an OBP league (and I’m wondering a little bit about that). So what about someone like Cody Bellinger? Assuming his owner is in a competitive window, Bellinger might be the most ideal trade candidate. He just turned 25, has shown MVP upside, and is in a big enough slump (.592 OPS as of this writing) that his price has been depressed so much that you can add to Bellinger. Let’s look at Philthy Projections for Bellinger.
Bellinger Averages from 2021-23: .279/.371/.566 with 95/38/96/10
There’s a drop off from Trout to be sure, but that’s still a really good player.
So what type of piece can you add to Bellinger? Here’s where you can dip into the prospect pool, because Bellinger is already a strong MLB asset. The first rule of acquiring prospects as add ons is assume they’re not going to pan out. Can you live with a deal if the prospect(s) is a bust? If not, then perhaps consider reworking.
Trout demands a top 50 asset to go along with him. So what boxes does a prospect need to check if he’s to be either the only minors guy in the deal, or just one of a couple?
Must be a batter
Must have strong upside
Must have shown strong success in a recent season
Preferably High-A or above
If you can check the first box and then two of the next three, you’re onto something. Combing our Top 500 Dynasty List, what about #15 Kristian Robinson? He’s a bat that’s oozing upside and had a really strong 2019, before a mediocre full-season debut. What about Trevor Larnach? Bat, made it to Double-A, .842 OPS across two levels. He suffers a little in the “strong upside” category, but consider that a concession for Bellinger already.
Trevor Larnach from 2021-23: .285/.361/.440 with 72/17/80/4
I’d take the easy over on the power and perhaps a tick lower on each the average and the OBP. But those numbers look really solid and paired with Bellinger, that’s enticing.
If you can’t get Bellinger, then you should look into getting two really strong young bats rather than an elite one. What about Joey Gallo and Gleyber Torres? Or Austin Meadows and Ozzie Albies? It’s a tough sell for a manager to give those two up, but Trout is Trout, you shouldn’t have to be doing much, if any, selling.
Don’t Fall For The Prospect Package
One mistake I’ve seen with Mike Trout trades is an overemphasis on getting prospects in returns. More often than not you’ll want prospects but they shouldn’t be the centerpiece. Jasson Dominguez, Jo Adell and Gavin Lux are very highly regarded. But they’re not worthy of being the main return. Hell, I wouldn’t trade Trout for all three. Prospects should be complementary pieces. Remember, ask yourself if you’re OK if all the prospects bust in a deal.
According to a Fangraphs article by Jeff Zimmerman, even a very good prospect bat (one that was ranked as 60 FV by Baseball America from 1996-2010) had a 31.8% chance of contributing less than 1 WAR. Check out the startling table below. The article is worth a read.
Not only is a large prospect-only package a bad idea for the potential bust rate, but the way dynasty dynamics work, you’ll be hard pressed to find one manager who:
Has a fair prospect haul
Is willing to trade all his elite bats for one player
What About Pitchers?
I’m not going to make a hard and fast rule and say pitchers shouldn’t be part of a return but, I’ll tell you why I’d shy away. Back to the numbered bullet points!
Pitchers should be the last phase of any rebuild, which is presumably what you’re doing when you’re trading Trout. You’re not going to be competitive for a year or two, do you really want to waste bullets of a SP while waiting?
Pitchers get hurt. A study done from the 2002-2008 season showed that pitchers were 30 percent more likely to get hurt than fielders. In 2020, injured list placements for pitchers are soaring more than 50 percent. Of course, a lot of that is the unique season and the preparation that went (or rather, didn’t go) into the shortened season.
Rarely do ace pitchers get better and better after each season in a linear trajectory. Jacob deGrom, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, all were largely OK to good for a few years to begin their careers before turning into aces. I’d wager Clayton Kershaw is the outlier in today’s game of someone who came in highly regarded and was lights out pretty much from the get go.
In short, make your return all about the bats.
Conclusion
For those with a goldfish’s attention span (hey, I suffer from it too), here are the summarized points.
Target a young, near elite MLB asset with recent success as the centerpiece
Prospects should be additional pieces, not the centerpiece, and should have upside, recent success and be in High-A or above.
Pitchers should be a last case consideration
Reviewing The Discord Trade
Going back to the trade that opened this article, let’s briefly dissect why it wouldn’t be a strong offer using what I’ve mentioned above (but kudos to the new Trout owner for getting it done).
Andrew Benintendi - A little older than 25, disappointing 2019, even worse 2020, upside seems to be limited.
Julio Urias - 25-year-old pitcher. Potential strong upside, but not enough track record of success, questions about team usage.
Jo Adell - Strong bat prospect, recent success in 2019, just debuted. He’s arguably the most valuable piece in this deal but remember we don’t want prospects being the centerpiece.
Jasson Dominguez - Bat prospect, no recent success, hasn’t debuted in pro ball. I.E., extremely risky.
Got any Trout packages you’re considering? Ask away in the comments.