One of the biggest keys to fantasy success this season will be navigating the turbulent bullpen waters. As we have already seen with Aroldis Chapman, players may test positive during the season and their vacated closer spot will immediately need to be filled by someone. Correctly identifying the closer-in-waiting will be an even more valuable skill this season.
Several years back I created a model that’s sole purpose was to find stud closers-in-waiting. The underlying idea behind the model is a concept I called ADREIP. This is an adjusted RE24 value that factors in the leverage index of a given situation when a reliever enters the game. I then was able to take that value for every reliever dating back to 2015 and trained a model on the pitchers who I deemed to be high leverage. High leverage were pitchers who threw at least 40 innings and entered games with a leverage index at least 20% higher than league average.
The model used factors like K%, BB%, GB/FB, ISO allowed, and a Platoon Metric that I created. This helped me get a skill-based prediction of success. I have used this in the past to look into bullpens to find under-the-radar options who could become elite closers if given the chance.
ADREIP tiers:
Below 0: Well Below Average
0-.1: Slightly Below Average
.1-.2: League Average
.2-3: Slightly Above Average
.3-4: Well Above Average
Above .4: Elite
I use this model often when evaluating relievers for my own teams but for fantasy opportunity still reigns supreme. Just because a given pitcher has the skillset to be successful this does not mean that they will be handed the job.
A few notes on the process, closers are only as safe as their alternative option so I will tend to favor pitchers who are clearly their team’s best choice. Additionally, I will tend to favor the pitcher who has a job over a speculative one as again saves are the only thing that matters. I prefer closers on near .500 teams to those on dominant runaway favorites. Also, when ranking non-closers skills are important but proximity to the job is something I favor. In most seasons, non-closing relievers will not hold much fantasy value. For this season that still holds true but owning the backup or handcuff to your closer might be a valuable use of a bench spot.
Tiers
Tier One: Josh Hader stands here alone but make sure to also draft Corey Knebel
Tier Two: Chapman through to Yates - Osuna is consistently underrated and is one of the most elite and consistent closers in recent memory
Tier 3: Jansen to Hand - Fairly safe closers who should keep the role all season - Giles is another one of my favorite buys the Blue Jays will be sneaky good
Tier 4: Neris to Jimenez - Presumed favorites to begin the season. Brandon Workman showed elite skills in 2019 and should be able to take the step into that next tier by next season
Tier 5: Gallegos to Watson - Closer battles/timeshares/closers on bad teams. Sean Doolittle is one of the better closers of the past decade when healthy buy the bounceback potential
Tier 6: Handcuffs/Backups/Closers-In-Waiting. Karinchak, Pressley, and Bummer are three of my favorites in this group. Karinchak has electric stuff but no idea where it is going. Plus I played against him in college so he’s fun to watch. Pressley and Bummer are two of the more underrated and unknown pitchers in all of baseball. They could be elite as closers.