Who is Bryce Ball?
The Atlanta Braves invested a 24th round pick in Bryce Ball in the 2019 draft as a first baseman with big power. He might be a bargain for fantasy managers looking to avoid the steep price of some of the more known prospect options at the position.
On the surface level, we see that Ball is a big guy (6’6” 240lbs) with big power (70 raw power) but let’s take a deeper dive and see what we can find.
Smashing through Rookie ball
Ball started his professional career in the Appy League for the Danville Braves and immediately made an impact with the bat, launching 13 home runs with a 1.086 OPS and 177 wRC+ across 41 games. Ball’s 12.7 BB% and 17.3 K%, both better than league average, were impressive and showed his maturity as a hitter at the level. Ball led the league with his .676 SLG and .352 ISO displaying the big time power that the Braves bet on in the draft.
Statistically, rookie ball pitching was clearly no match for Bryce as he was pretty much dominant across the board. Since Ball was so great against the pitching in his first test of pro ball, I wanted to separate his year between his two levels in hopes of gaining some further insights.
On to the next one
Ball earned his promotion to Low A Rome after making his big splash in the Appalachian League. From a power standpoint, he continued to shine with a .547 SLG and .209 ISO compared to the .361/.123 mark that batters in the league posted. What changed however was the approach and ability to draw walks.
In the Appalachian League, Ball was able to do damage at the plate regularly while still showing a patient approach but once he moved up to Rome, he became overly aggressive as seen by his drastically reduced walk rate. This aggression did not hurt him overall as he still managed to hit .337/.367/.547 with a .412 wOBA and 163 wRC+ but when he gets to higher levels and is facing quality pitchers this could be a concerning trend.
Batted ball analysis
Ball consistently drove the ball to his pull side during his first year as a professional posting a Pull% of 51.3 and 45.5 at Rookie and Low A respectively. His GB% rose once he moved up once he moved to Rome but still sat at a respectable 41.5% to go with a healthy 36.9 FB%. For a power profile like Ball’s, a mix of high pull% and high FB% is the perfect recipe and something that will be important for him to continue as he develops.
Ball sprayed the ball across the outfield but when he hit it on the ground it was almost exclusively to his pull side. Also of note, most of his outs in the outfield were on balls that he failed to pull towards right field. His solid 21.5 LD% helped him get hits in the field even when he didn’t elevate the ball and it should help him hold his own against pitchers that aim to limit his pull side power.
Splits
Over the course of the year, Ball hit 15 of his 17 HRs against RHP. His slash line in Low A was actually better from an average and on base perspective against southpaws but the large gap in slugging led to overall better OPS numbers against righties.
While the numbers were still good overall across the board, the ability Ball shows to find his power stroke against left handed pitchers will be an important step in his development at the next levels of the minors.
Future Outlook
So should we be looking to buy into Ball right now in dynasty? In deeper dynasty leagues now is the time to try and get him. We have seen the power and ability to make forceful contact and this is the type of bat that can often move quickly through the minor leagues. It is important to note that defensively, Ball has some work to do at first base and it’s a trait GM Alex Anthopolous values. Not to mention the fact that they also have a guy fresh off an MVP season in Freddie Freeman. That said, a short term boost for Ball might be the addition of the DH in the National League as it could create an opportunity to more easily get the bat into the lineup. Either way, if Ball continues to hit, he will quickly rise up fantasy ranks and his price with it so now is the perfect time to invest at a cheap cost if possible. In leagues with 300 prospects rostered he should be owned.
All in all, Ball had an extremely successful first taste of professional baseball and gave people reason to be excited about his future. Ball showed his legitimate power potential with strong line drive and fly ball rates while keeping his ground ball rate reasonably low. While the overall numbers seemed to still be great, it will be important to see his approach at the plate to grow as he faces better pitching at High-A and Double-A. If he can prove he can succeed against better competition, Bryce Ball could potentially be a hidden fantasy gem moving forward at surprisingly weak position.