By now we hope you’ve seen our Top 500 Dynasty Prospect List. It’s the first time we updated it since the season began and we got to incorporate MLB data and alternate training site info where we could.
Let’s use this piece to talk about the most intriguing part of any prospect list — the risers. Specifically, some of the players who rose a metric ton.
Before we begin, I should call out that we dedicated an entire our to a podcast just on the list, including more names than what you’ll see just in this piece. We kicked it off by talking about how our prospect evaluations changed after the 2020 season. It has timestamps so feel free to find a player/topic you’re interested in and listen.
All right, let’s move on to the names. I am generally going in descending order from our list.
Sixto Sanchez, RHP
Rank: 7
Change: +60
Matt, me and Ralph all agree: Sixto is the top pitching prospect in baseball. There is no secret formula. We saw a pitcher with a triple-digit fastball, a legitimate plus plus changeup that yielded a .187 SLG, a slider to tackle LHB, a sinker to mirror his change out of the hand, and a nascent curveball that has intriguing promise. Oh, and pretty damn good command as he had a plan of attack for all of his pitches and more often than not executed it.
Yes, we understand that his strikeouts aren’t elite. It’s the only real blemish in an otherwise sparkling profile. But he’s someone who’ll easily register a 50+GB% rate (he was sixth in 2020 with a 58% mark) to help mitigate the ratios. However we hold out hope that he can make some changes (I’m hoping less sinker usage in exchange for more curveball which was a surprisingly good pitch for him) to keep ticking up the K%. And he looked this good against major league batters which is ultimately the biggest reason for leapfrogging MacKenzie Gore (who you should read between the lines and understand something is/went wrong with him that we don’t know about).
Ian Anderson, RHP
Rank: 22
Change: +131
Again, no secret here. Anderson came up and dispelled all notions of command warts and more importantly, his changeup was much better than the past with more bite and fade than I remember him having and his release point is nearly identical with the FB and CH.
He put himself center stage in the playoffs after 18.2 IP, 2 ER, 24 K. He relies on his changeup, fastball (94 mph) and curveball from a high three quarters with ultra elite extension (7.5 ft) which gives hitters one of the most unique deliveries to combat, along with less time than usual to commit to a pitch, all of which help the arsenal play up. You can make a case Anderson should’ve been the number two pitcher behind Sanchez.
DL Hall, LHP
Rank: 57
Change: +46
Fastball velocity. Lots of it. We received reports that Hall routinely hit 100 mph over the summer, which is already 2-3 ticks higher than his max in April. Has averaged 97 mph in instructs recently. Our sources indicate his slider has surpassed his curveball as his best secondary, a pitch that now flirts with 90 mph in instructs with excellent movement. We didn’t receive any updates on how his command has fared, specifically for his breaking pitches. But with the new regime in Baltimore, we’re bullish on the development of pitching in the organization. Right now he’d legitimately rival Snell for the nastiest pure stuff for a LHP.
Jarren Duran, OF
Rank: 88
Change: +244
This is my favorite new ranking. Jarren Duran has experienced a roller coaster in dynasty value. Remember that to begin 2019 in High-A he slashed .387/.456/.543 in 50 games (.480 BABIP, naturally) and became a hot pick up. Then in Double-A he came back to reality over the course of 82 games slashing .250/.309/.325. That was enough to render him an afterthought. However in 2020 we received reports and saw vids where Duran lowered his hands dramatically and began tapping into power. In sim games he smack pull bombs, oppo shots, and bombs to straightaway center. In short, we’re now dealing with a potential 2021 debut that has 15 HR/30 SB potential.
Hedbert Perez, OF
Rank: 94
Change: +105
When it comes to teens, we prefer to see some recent footage or receive trustworthy reports before shooting them up our rankings. We know that sometimes this will make us “late” to some rnakings but that’s all right. Because Perez was at the Alternate Training Site, we caught glimpses of his frame, bat speed, and power. It’s an exciting blend and reports were the makeup was great and he didn’t look out of place. It’s the type of swing that prioritizes contact over power, and the fact that he’s still sending them out is very encouraging. We’re crossing our fingers for a full-season ball debut in 2021 where he could climb further.
Zach McKinstry, 2B/OF
Rank: 188
Change: +169
McKinstry just barely played in the majors this season (7 PA) but it’s a testament to his accomplishments on a long road as a former 33rd-round pick in 2016. The Dodgers are an excellent org at player development and they’re slowly working their magic with McKinstry. Showcasing a blend of low strikeouts and burgeoning power, he’s at the very least established he can be a utility guy on a second division team. We like his trajectory and think there’s, like, a 5% chance he turn into an everyday player with power.
Quick Hits
General rule of thumb, if a prospect got called up and performed well, he received a massive bump.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B (12, +58): If you’re a listener of our dynasty podcast, you’ve heard us wax poetic about Hayes. You already know why he got such a big bump — the power started showing up.
Dean Kremer, RHP (130, +236): Showed well in his major league debut, curveball has more bite than anticipated, has the makings of an SP4 with some strikeout upside.
Trevor Rogers, LHP (138, +189): First start was eye-opening with a 94 mph fastball, three ticks higher than average. Even when velo settled, still a couple ticks higher than in minors. Excellent strikeout potential, high risk SP4 potential.
Jay Groome, LHP (162, +212): Back on the mound and healthy, Groome is picking up where he left off with his major league quality hammer curveball. His fastball command takes it from a 50 to 55 as he’s shown ability to dot it, but needs to prevent tendency to cut it where RHB can crush it inside.
Pavin Smith, 1B (203, +185): His excellent K/BB numbers translated in his brief major league debut. Power still lackluster so upside remains capped but we’re now more bullish on guys that show contact ability in the majors because power is something that can come later.
Bryan Mata, RHP (214, +208): Three average or better pitches and the ability to pivot off the fastball if it’s not working and still be successful. Trevor Hooth had a great breakdown with plenty of gifs in a Mata feature just last month.
Ian Seymour, LHP (301, +118): Someone we had too low to begin with. Strong organization (Rays), double-plus changeup, good work ethic. He will climb much higher than this once he shows it in games.
Randy Arozarena, OF (37, +138): 💪💣💥 x 1000