With September comes sadness.
Games come to close in every area of the country outside of Arizona and the backfields of Florida. Facing a period of six cold months with no live baseball to enjoy, no games to attend, and no video to shoot, many of us in the cold weather parts of the country retreat to our homes and look for any possible option to revive that spark.
If you’re anything like me, this long and winding road leads to afternoons and evenings of combing through statistics. Looking to get a better grip on the season gone by, running query after query searching for an unheralded name or two to add to your deep league watch lists.
Below I’ve complied in no particular order a collection of potential OBP league gems. The collective features players whose ownership runs the gambit of 200+ to 700+ prospects owned, so it’s a wide net. I looked for an ability to get on base and either speed, power, or interesting batted ball data, like a 20%+ line drive rate or a 40%+ flyball rate. It’s a collection of under the radar names from my first round of off-season digging.
Canaan Smith | ORG: NYY | POS: Left Field | AGE: 20 (4-30-99) | STAT: .405 OBP, .465 SLG, .158 ISO, 14 BB%, 20.5 K%, 26 LD%, 30.7 FB%
There’s few players I plan on targeting this off-season more than Smith. A sneaky dominant showing in the Sally has put the former 2017 fourth rounder on a trajectory for top 100 consideration in 2020. A plus raw power bat with an all-fields approach, Smith goes to left deliberately and with purpose, driving balls to left field in the form of line drives and hard hit flyballs. His hardest hit shots still tend to be to his pull-side, but that’s not the point. The point is he doesn’t need to be overly reliant on ambushing fastballs to generate in-game pop.
That however is not what got him onto this list. It’s the 14 percent walk rate and the ability to work counts without being overly-passive, which is a rare skill at the lower levels. His sub-10% SwStr%, 75%+ contact rate, and high walk rate give a pretty valuable insight into the quality of Smith’s approach.
An average runner and fielder at present, signs point to left field long term with the ability to fill in on the opposite corner in a pinch. His greatest weakness seems to be his struggles versus lefties, as he showed little ability to do any damage versus southpaws in 2019.
Devlin Granberg | ORG: BOS | POS: 1B/LF | AGE: 24 (9/8/95) | STAT: .364 OBP, .405 SLG, .132 ISO, 9.4 BB%, 18.3 K%, 25.3 LD%, 28.3 FB%
Short-season ball is an excellent barometer of two things for draftees fresh from the amateur ranks: baseball IQ/refinement of skills and talent. Granberg was a player that stuck out in the summer of 2018 for Lowell due to his refinement of skills. The former Dallas Baptist standout grinds out at bats, uses all fields, and shoots the gap with line drive contact.
He’s a sum of his parts type that has no carrying tool. Defensively he can handle an outfield corner but is best suited for first base. A Sally League All-Star in 2019, Granberg got a month’s worth of time to end the season in the Carolina League, but showed very little offensively.
Despite being old for the level, I think Granberg’s track record with the bat gives him value that transcends his pedigree. His combination of contact, on base ability, and pitch recognition make him an intriguing deep league flier in leagues where 500+ prospects are owned.
Dwanya Williams-Sutton | ORG: SD | POS: Right Field | AGE: 22 (7/10/97) | STAT: .411 OBP, .367 SLG, .131 ISO, 15 BB%, 24.8 K%, 16.5 LD%, 41.5 FB%
One of the most interesting players on this list Williams-Sutton is a powerful athlete with a plus plate approach looking to translate his raw BP pop into games. Taken in the fifth round of the 2018 draft Williams-Sutton slashed .331/.477/.556 his junior season. His strikeout rate is a little high at 24.8 percent, but his 8.6 SwStr% tell me it’s mostly a matter of calls on the fringes. His on base ability is elite, he can run a little, and he puts the ball in the air a lot. Even if his likeliest outcome is fifth outfielder there’s enough upside to snatch him up in a deep dynasty, once again something with 400+ prospects.
Ji-Hwan Bae | ORG: PIT | POS: 2B/SS | AGE: 20 (7/26/99) | STAT: .403 OBP, .430 SLG, .107 ISO, 11.3 BB%, 20.3 K%, 21 LD% 27.8 FB%
Caught up in the Braves international signing scandal, Bae hit the open market and signed with the Pirates back in 2018. A domestic violence incident that resulted in a 30-game suspension this spring makes Bae an unsavory own. The suspension stems from an incident on New Year’s Eve 2017 in Daegu, South Korea, when Bae, then 18, allegedly slapped, choked and kicked his then-girlfriend.
Personally he’s a difficult player to root for in any capacity but his on base ability lands him on this list. Out of respect to the victim and all victims of domestic violence I think it’s best we focus on the former and not the latter. For Bae’s sake I hope he’s no longer a piece of crap.
Justin Dean | ORG: ATL | POS: Centerfield | AGE: 22 (12/6/96) | STAT: .386 OBP, .431 SLG, .147 ISO, 12.3 BB%, 22.9 K%, 20.7 LD%, 33 FB%
Struggling thus far in the Arizona Fall League, Dean, a 17th rounder out of Lenoir-Rhyne University, has defied the odds and found himself on the prospect radar following his first professional season. An 80 runner with on base ability and enough over the fence pop to be dangerous, Dean is the type of player worth taking a shot on this off-season. Production, raw talent, and an aggressive assignment to the AFL have his stock shooting up.
Josh Stowers | ORG: NYY | POS: OF | AGE: 22 (2/25/97) | STAT: .386 OBP, .400 SLG, .127 ISO, 13.9 BB%, 26.7 K%, 24.7 LD%, 41.2 FB%
A toolsy player with split opinions on his future role coming into the draft, Stowers took steps forward in 2019. Putting the ball in the air more, and displaying a strong approach. Acquired by the Yankees from the Reds in the Sonny Gray deal, along with the supplemental draft pick that yielded T.J. Sikkema, Stowers is a speedy on base machine who’s raw power is yet to show in games. His on base skills and ability to play all three outfield spots serviceably are his greatest assets.
The difference between a fourth outfielder profile and an everyday guy may depend upon the development of his power. In my opinion his bat speed and his upper cut bat path give me hope for more. The large knock is the quality of competition in the Sally versus the level of competition he faced in college.
Luis Castro | ORG: COL | POS: 1B | AGE: 24 (9/19/95) | STAT: .419 OBP, .552 SLG, .248 ISO, 13.2 BB%, 20.7 K%, 18 LD%, 38.6 FB%
Separating fact from fiction when it comes to slugging Rockies prospect is often a fool’s errand for a myriad of reasons. Chief among them the Rockies sometimes puzzling approach to playing time for young players at the MLB level. Players matriculating from the slash line-boosting confines of Lancaster and Asheville further complicate matters. Step forward Luis Castro.
Leading up to signing day in July of 2012 Castro was considered a top prospect in the class, and had agreed to a contract in principal with the Toronto Blue Jays for $800,000. But a pre-signing physical revealed an issue in his knee and the offer was pulled. (Sidebar: Castro is still unaware of what the actual issue was that the Blue Jays uncovered in the physical) The Rockies swooped in and signed Castro for discounted $50,000. So far a slow burn, Castro has shown the ability to get on base throughout his seven minor league seasons, but not until his stop in High-A Lancaster had Castro flashed over the fence power. He was up and down with Hartford this year, and didn’t show the same pop at the far-less power conducive confines of Dunkin Donuts park.
Despite a lengthy development path, and some serious warts in the profile, Castro’s bat is worth a follow. His combination of average contact rates, a 40 percent flyball average, walk rates in the low teens, and a lack of split issues add up to a 24-year-old first base only type with a little bit of upside. It’s a tough profile to make happen and at 24 his High-A slugging is still very much an aberration. It’s an underdog prospect I likely wouldn’t own outside leagues with 600+ prospects rostered, but he’s at least worth a watch list mention.
Ryan Aguilar | ORG: MIL | POS: 1B/OF | AGE: 25 (9/11/94) | STAT: .389 OBP, .406 SLG, .140 ISO, 15 BB%, 27.3 K%, 21.3 LD%, 31.9 FB%
A former senior sign following a standout final season with the University of Arizona, Aguilar is a gritty player that grinds out at bats. His on base ability is his standout tool without a whole lot else. As a former 32nd rounder he’s always been a long shot for any type of meaningful playing time. However, a 15 percent walk rate gets my attention enough to get inclusion into this list.
Luis Alejandro Basabe | ORG: ARI | POS: 3B/OF | AGE: 23 (8/26/96) | STAT: .402 OBP, .390 SLG, .098 ISO, 15 BB%, 21.2 K%, 27.4 LD%, 34.8 FB%
There’s an old wives tale regarding the Diamondbacks acquisition of Basabe that goes a little something like this: Dave Stewart requested Luis Alejandro Basabe and not his brother Luis Alexander Basabe by simple mixup in exchange for veteran reliever Brad Ziegler. Whether or not that’s true is another story altogether.
While Luis Alexander, included in the Chris Sale deal, has been up and down, Luis Alejandro has been mostly down. Despite excellent walk rates, Basabe’s overall numbers have been lacking. In 2019, his second stint in the Cal League, Basabe put together his strongest campaign yet. Getting on base at a high clip and stinging line drives at an elite rate.
It’s a utility profile with a little bit more pop than you’d expect from the numbers. Role 40 ceiling who’s eligible for the Rule 5 this season.
Cal Stevenson | ORG: HOU | POS: OF | AGE: 23 (9/12/96) | STAT: .388 OBP, .384 SLG, .096 ISO, 14.1 BB%, 13.3 K%, 19.9 LD%, 26.7 FB%
The second senior sign out of Arizona on this list, Stevenson was acquired by the Astros at the trade deadline as part of the package for Derek Fisher. Not just another elite on base maven with few supporting skills, the Fremont, California native offers a varied skill set. Stevenson can slide into any spot in the outfield, clocks plus run times, and exhibits elite bat to ball skills with contact% in the mid-80s.
If the Astros can unlock a little bit of game power, it’s 30 grade now, perhaps Stevenson has enough supporting skills to out perform his current role 40 ceiling.
Alfonso Rivas | ORG: OAK | POS: 1B | AGE: 23 (9/13/96) | STAT: .383 OBP, .408 SLG, .125 ISO, 13 BB%, 22.2 K%, 16.7 LD%, 38.2 FB%
I swear part of this list’s criteria wasn’t playing at the University of Arizona, but yet another Wildcat makes the cut in Rivas. He’s a contact first hitter, with below average power for the first base position. It’s a tough profile, but Rivas grinds out at bats, puts the bat on the ball, and generally just knows how to hit. It’s a pretty lefty swing when he barrels up, and surprisingly contact oriented for a bat path as long as his.
Chris Gittens | ORG: NYY | POS: 1B | AGE: 25 (2/4/94) | STAT: .393 OBP, .500 SLG, .219 ISO, 14.9 BB%, 29.1 K%, 17.5 LD%, 32.3 FB%
A three true outcome type, with an unusually groundball heavy approach at the plate. Gittens struggles to make contact but when he does it goes a long way. He’s another slugger with contact issues, and an approach that teeters between patient and passive. Much of Gittens statistical profile screams quad-A, and my in person looks support that viewpoint.
Cooper Hummel | ORG: MIL | POS: OF | AGE: 24 (11/28/94) | STAT: .384 OBP, .450 SLG, .202 ISO, 14.8 BB%, 23.9 K%, 20.2 LD%, 38.7 FB%
A former catcher, Hummel moved full time to the outfield this season and he responded with his strongest offensive season to date. Hummel showed more power than he did in his strong 2018 campaign hitting 17 homers for Double-A Biloxi, and posting an isolated slugging above .200 for the first time in his career.
His swing is a little unorthodox, but his barrel seems to hang in the zone for days, leading to a fair amount of hard contact. Not enough arm for right, meaning it’s a likely left field only profile. Like many others listed above, he’s really going to have to hit to make this work at the major league level. A switch-hitter his splits are stronger against lefties, meaning he might end up a short-side platoon type.