As dynasty baseball managers, we’re inherent dreamers when it comes to prospects. When a prospect is in our farm system, it almost feels like we’re a third parent, wanting the best coaching and development for them and wishing nothing bad ever befalls them. We dream big and hope they become the best.
This article is all about dreaming big. Never satisfied with what’s in front of us, we’re always wondering who’s going to be the best prospect next year and the one after that. Here’s my attempt at predicting that.
This is the third time I write this article and more than anything I love going back and seeing who I’ve predicted in the past. In 2017, it was obvious I had no idea how advanced Vlad Jr and Acuña were. In 2018 my predictions were better but I once again underrated another precocious player in Wander Franco.
Understand this exercise is more fun than anything and while I do take my guesstimation seriously, there will be plenty of mistakes. So let’s turn our eyes to the future and see who’s the top prospect in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Top Prospect in 2020: Wander Franco, SS (TB)
Just like last year when Vladito was the undisputed top prospect at the halfway point, Franco is the king of kings right now and there’s no debate. He doesn’t turn 19 until March and he just wrapped up a two-level campaign in MWL and FSL where he slashed .327/.398/.487 with a 56/35 BB/K ratio along with nine home runs and 18 steals.
When I saw him for a series in High-A, he met the hype. The switch hitter has an extremely quick trigger which when paired with his tremendous bat speed ensures he’s almost never going to swing and miss, even on premium heat.
The fact of the matter is he was never challenged last year and I sincerely believe he could more than tread water if he began 2020 in the majors.
Potential Challengers: Jo Adell, Luis Robert, Gavin Lux
Top Prospect in 2021: Julio Rodriguez, OF (SEA)
If you want me to be brutally honest, I think Wander Franco still qualifies as a rookie entering 2021. But in the interest of a different name (and hopefully the Rays prove us wrong), I strongly believe Julio Rodriguez will be baseball’s next top prospect. I don’t quite think 2019 was a true breakout for JRod, but it was enough to realize that he’s a damn special prospect.
Also 18, he finished his season slashing .326/.390/.540 with 12 home runs. He capped the year with a 17-game stint at High-A (where he’s four years younger than the average competition) and rocked a ridiculous 1.252 OPS. He’s also in the AFL where the power didn’t show up but he hit .288 with a .397 OBP. Interestingly, he notched four steals there too.
Perhaps most impressive to me is how freaking hard he hits the ball. RotoWire’s MiLB Batted Ball statistics show a 40 Hard Hit% and in Minor Graphs only two other teenagers (Alexander Canario and Triston Casas) had a further Est. FB distance.
Potential Challengers: Kristian Robinson, George Valera, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore
Top Prospect in 2022: Marco Luciano, SS (SF)
I was back and forth between Luciano and Rodriguez for 2020, but the latter’s performance against better competition and seemingly quicker timeline gave him the edge. That’s no slight to Luciano, who also was my 2022 top prospect last year. But whereas he was unproven in 2018, now he’s a flat out stud. Luciano torched the AZL in 38 games (1.055 OPS) before a nine-game sample in short season where he scuffled.
Luciano topped Jason Pennini’s Top 100 AZL rankings recently and he’s been nothing but impressed every time he’s seen him, from January instructs to AZL games. Here’s an excerpt from JP’s detailed notes:
Flatly, Luciano has some of the best hands/bat speed on the planet; they power his swing and should help him maintain reasonable contact rates without having to sell out for power. He projects to be an above average hitter with double-plus game power at maturity.
Translation: this dude is going to have 35+ HR power at some point and he might do it at shortstop in the earlier stages of his career.
Potential challengers: Ronny Mauricio, Orelvis Martinez
Top Prospect in 2023: Jasson Dominguez, OF (NYY)
Dominguez has been one of the most hyped J2 signees in a long time and unlike Vladito and Acuña who had to blossom first, it’s extremely evident just how much of a ceiling Dominguez has. Playing against older competition since age 8, the Yankees have been scouting him for years and have come away stunned at how explosive he is. His training over the years includes plenty of weighted bats so he’s developed very strong hands and wrists that let him turn on fastballs but also hit them a mile the other way.
He regularly rips pitches over 100 mph EV in batting practice and his athleticism was such that he was looked at as a catcher and a shortstop thanks to his strong arm before the Yankees liked his plus speed in the outfield with advanced route running.
Yoan Moncada, Bo Jackson, Mike Trout — Dominguez has been comped to all of them. The 16-year-old switch hitter should be a top three pick in 2019-20 First Year Player Drafts and because we haven’t seen him play, we only have good reports with an unlimited ceiling right now.
Potential challengers: Robert Puason, Jeferson Espinal, Erick Peña, Luis Rodriguez