Without the Minor League season, I’ll periodically be going back in time to watch starts from last year, to bring video and my thoughts on what the pitcher presents. Welcome to Pitcher Rewind.
Joey Cantillo was just involved as part of the massive deal that saw Mike Clevinger go to the San Diego Padres. So, Cantillo along with several other prospects are now in the Indians organization.
I know what the title is, but don’t worry, this is more than just a changeup breakdown. But man is that pitch awesome! We’ll get there.
Joey Cantillo made a name for himself last year with a sub-2 ERA, 11.76 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9 over 98 innings with the Midwest League. The left-handed pitcher’s standout performance ended in a promotion to Lake Elsinore where things didn’t go poorly. But his small sample size of 13.2 innings, can be called an adjustment period. Keeping in mind he was 19 at the time, with the average age in the hitter friendly California League being 22. Overall, 2019 was very good to Cantillo as evidenced by his 14.4 SwStr%.
He showed every bit of that swing and miss stuff in the start I chose to watch, which was his debut with Lake Elsinore. Cantillo took the hill against the Angels affiliate, Inland Empire 66ers.
Cantillo’s Line: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 7 K, 4 BB
So on most lists Cantillo won’t crack the top 10. Our rankings are no different, he comes in at 13 for the Padres. Despite what the amount of walks on in this game looks like, the writer of the list, Diego Solares, writes “Cantillo has a fairly deceptive, repeatable delivery that allows him to fill up the zone with strikes.”
He’s got a true three pitch mix, that is made up of a fastball that got up to 92-94 last year. A dreamy changeup, and a curveball that takes a 12-6 shape but is clearly a third pitch.
Diego thinks that breaking ball will be paramount to the ceiling Cantillo has, “An increase in fastball velo, and further development of his curveball could make him a middle-of-the-rotation type arm moving forward.”
Repertoire
Fastball
In this start, it isn’t a stretch to say the fastball was used as a secondary pitch, but that wasn’t the plan. He came out and missed with several fastballs to kick things off, before throwing a changeup for a strike. From that point on, he seemed to lead with the changeup. His fastball played up in this role.
When Cantillo found the corner with the fastball he could really paint. He never really missed over the big part of the plate.
He would find this spot accidentally too. On multiple occasions the catcher called for an elevated fastball with two strikes, but Cantillo couldn’t get the north/south command working. When he tried, he’d either miss badly or spot up on the corner. Pay attention to the location of his next GIF, because it was a common spot for him to miss,
But like I said, sometimes he missed and it worked, like in this case where he was able get a whiff.
I love this last fastball GIF, because it shows how deceptive the fastball can be, playing off of his changeup. Notice the batter helplessly throw his hand up, he was confused and off balance.
Fastball Summary: This pitch is not going to be effective standing alone. It’s likely going to have to play off the changeup to play up. At it’s peak, you’re looking at an average fastball. He’ll have to get more consistent in the command, but he rarely misses in a location where hitters can punish the pitch. However, as evidenced by that last GIF, the pitch has the ability to get better as the game goes on if he can sequence it well.
Changeup
The reason we are all here. In all reality this is a 55, maybe 60, grade pitch at it’s peak. In my heart it will be an 80 grade. Cantillo does a really good job making this pitch deceptive in delivery, and he commands it well.
I don’t want to be dramatic, but I think he got at least 100 whiffs on this pitch in just the one game. They couldn’t touch it, until he got gassed and gave up a bomb in his last inning.
The command gets better, but the significance on this first GIF, is that he threw this strike and seemed to immediately settle in a bit more.
The camera cuts out on this next GIF, but you can see where this pitch ends up, and it’s just so beautiful I felt inclined to include it.
Now that you’ve seen the pitch and get the idea, let’s see some helpless hitters shall we?
This last changeup was my favorite pitch of the whole start. I have it saved as “CH Beauty” on my computer. It’s that nice.
Changeup Summary: This is clearly his best pitch and it’s not particularly close. The rest of his repertoire will go as this pitch goes. It becomes a swing and miss offering because of his deception. I mentioned it earlier, but he did get tired, and threw (what I believe to be) a changeup over the middle that got crushed over the RF wall. Overall, he showed good command of this pitch to both sides though.
Curveball
Cantillo really struggled on his release point with this pitch early on. There was a batter, when he tried it back to back, and both pitches missed up and out. He just wasn’t getting out in front. That continued until later in the start, when he started to get the ball low, and I was finally able to see the shape on the pitch.
Once he corrected the release point, it was kind of an over correction that saw a couple pitches go in the dirt.
In between those though, he did find the corner and get a whiff on the pitch.
By the end, he was able to use the pitch to steal a strike, as evidenced here.
Curveball Summary: As advertised, this pitch still needs development. Really, all I walk away from this start with is knowing what the shape is. It was nice to see him make the necessary adjustments to be able to use the pitch. There is a fringe-average pitch in there.
If he can find the pitch on a more consistent basis, his repertoire will make him a very fun arm in a future Cleveland rotation.
Final Thoughts
Between being way young for the level and this start being a debut, this was a really good outing from Joey Cantillo. He was getting a ton of swings and misses. Once he settled in a bit, he looked to have command of the game. He looked composed even after allowing runners on base.
That being said, he’ll have to reign in the command. His fastball would hit the low and outside corner, or it would miss by a lot. Finding the command, at least on that pitch, will go a very long way for Cantillo. Chalk that up to nerves on the debut if you want, as he walked 4 in this outing,. But then 2 and 1 in his other two High-A starts. It just would’ve been really nice to see him be able to elevate the pitch in this start. Working north/south adds a dynamic to that pitch. But that pitch will always play up because of his changeup.
Color me impressed though, that a 19 year old Cantillo was not only using his changeup as his featured pitch, but was successful with it. It’s fair to describe the Inland Empire hitters as baffled in that game. By the time I realized I should be counting changeup whiffs, I was already too late. But it seemed like the choice was to take the pitch for a strike, or swing and miss at it.
Diego pointed it out, and we was right. Cantillo is going to need the velocity increase he saw last year to continue. If he does, the two pitch mix can carry him a bit. What is going to decide his rotation future might just be that curveball. It’s got a good shape, but it just wasn’t consistent.
I’ve been on the Cantillo hype train for awhile after seeing a few of his Midwest League starts. I’m happy to report nothing has changed. He’s got the chance to be an absolute steal for the Indians as part of the return for Clevinger.