About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Josh Jung, 3B - 55 OFP
Age: 25 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-Season OFP: 60
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 40 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Jung is well-filled out and physically mature. He has a good, broad upper body with well-defined muscle and a thicker lower half. There’s not much room to dream on because he is physically maxed out.
STRENGTHS Jung’s all-around game is something worth mentioning. He is an above-average defender at the hot corner, and he makes quick and efficient movements to the ball and can fire the ball from a multitude of platforms. His arm is an asset there defensively, and he makes quick accurate throws to get baserunners. He has an above-average hit tool thanks to solid swing-decisions and good bat-to ball skills. He has above-average bat speed with plus raw strength, which allows him to hit for above-average power. He will routinely be a 25-30 homer bat who also sprays hard liners across the field. He does have plus power to his pull-side when he gets pitched on the inner-third.
WEAKNESSES Jung is not the greatest runner and that limits his impact when he is on the basepaths. He hunts fastballs and can be fooled at times by better breaking stuff, and that elicits some ugly swings from him. He didn’t make much contact in his big league debut and along with that came a 38 K%. There’s plenty of room for growth here, and he’s a hard enough worker to overcome those issues once he continually sees the best pitchers in the world everyday. There are some questions about the hit tool, though.
SUMMARY This is what a solid above-average major leaguer looks like. Jung will post strong exit velocities while playing an above-average defensive third base. There could be more there if the Rangers tweak his attack angle. He should be a middle-of-the-order masher who is able to help his team in all facets of the game. That kind of ability could translate into possible All-Star appearances.
EVALUATOR Rhys White
2. Evan Carter, OF - 55 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 50
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 60 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Carter is lanky and has room to grow into his larger frame. He has long levers that make it easy to project future strength gains without losing his plus athleticism. Twitchy with impressive balance and control.
STRENGTHS His biggest advantage over his peers is how disciplined he is at the plate. He shows an incredible feel for the strike zone and tracking breaking balls. He rarely expands the zone, although he is somewhat aggressive against strikes. Unlike most patient hitters, Carter doesn’t neglect hitting the breaking ball. He times his swing intending to hit softer stuff and stumbles into contact against fastballs because of his flat swing. This strategy has led to plus contact rates. Carter also offers what is already average raw power, and he will likely mature into more as he grows into his frame.
WEAKNESSES Carter’s biggest issue right now is a lack of pull-side contact. He sits back for slower pitches, and that leads to him being late on fastballs. He still connects with them due to a flat swing that gets the barrel in the zone early, but he makes lower quality contact. The pull rates shouldn’t ever be high, but he should do damage on opposite-field hits with added strength. Carter also has issues with his footwork in the outfield which leads to inconsistent power behind his throws.
SUMMARY Despite only just turning 20 years old and having limited minor league experience, Carter is one of the safest bets to be a productive major leaguer in all of the minors. Carter has no potentially crippling flaws in his profile. Carter is an on-base machine; who, in his prime, will hit for both a high average and walk at a high rate. He will do that while also playing centerfield and posting 20/20 seasons.
EVALUATOR Tieran Alexander
3. Owen White, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 50
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 55 | High |
| 93-97 mph | 77-81 mph | 83-87 mph | 86-60 mph |
PHYSICAL White has an ideal starting pitcher frame. There’s limited projection left, but he could still add muscle to his lower half. He has very impressive shoulder abduction that enables him to throw at high velocities.
STRENGTHS White has swapped out a below-average sweeper for a plus one-seam slider in 2022. He still throws it with a sweeper axis, but it has traded some sweep for depth and a velocity boost. The new slider has a chase rate over 40 percent and also gets tons of called strikes. The command of the slider in particular stands out, with him consistently landing the pitch down and to the gloveside, but the fastball command is also advanced. The curveball has the ideal shape for getting called strikes at an elite clip.
WEAKNESSES White struggles to zone his changeup with any consistency. The added depth has made it a highly effective chase pitch, but he can’t zone it enough to perform. The fastball is thrown hard with elite spin rates, but the low efficiency leaves it with average ride. This, combined with a high release and short stride, leads to the fastball not being nearly as overpowering as the profile suggests. The curveball command is erratic as well, and it’s a pitch that is reliant on being zoned in order to be effective.
SUMMARY There are no doubting White’s abilities when he is on the mound. He has a wipeout slider, a high-upside fastball, and a called strike machine of a curveball. Even his changeup is somewhat effective. The problem is that White hasn’t often been on the mound. White underwent Tommy John in 2019 and then the pandemic and a broken hand kept him out until the summer of 2021. He dominated upon his return, won AFL MVP, and got better in 2022 before being shut down in July for forearm fatigue. The health concerns add risk to what is otherwise one of the more exciting arms in the minors.
EVALUATOR Tieran Alexander
4. Brock Porter, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: HS
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 9
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 45 | 50 | 70 | 50 | Extreme |
| 94-98 mph | 74-77 mph | 82-86 mph | 79-82 mph |
PHYSICAL Porter possessed one of the most projectable frames in the entire 2022 draft class. He’s high-waisted with long levers and shows very athletic and repeatable actions for his size. Slightly longer arm action that shows impressive arm speed in a near over-the-top arm slot and easily creating above-average extension through his delivery.
STRENGTHS Simply put, prep pitchers don’t have a changeup like Porter’s. Killing both spin and velocity while pulling the ripcord as it crosses the plate with devastating parachute-esque arm side tumble. There’s command in any count and creates an abundance of swing and miss. His fastball doesn’t lag far behind in the consistent mid-to-upper-90s with exceptional carry and arm-side run. He can look unhittable at the top of the zone. Porter currently mixes in two breaking balls with distinct shapes. The slider has made big strides in the past year, now sitting in the mid-80s and trending towards a potential above-average pitch with some tunneling qualities off of the fastball. His overall feel to spin is above-average. High-level pitchability and steadily improving command round out a strong profile.
WEAKNESSES Porter continuing to find consistency in his release point for breaking balls will be key in both pitches becoming better than serviceable long term. Command working on the inner half to both sides of the plate would be the only real knock on the fastball, and that mostly comes from being over-aggressive. Adding strength and building into a true starting pitcher’s workload will be a bit of an adjustment after being a cold weather arm as an amateur.
SUMMARY The former Michigan prep arm offers a true plus fastball/changeup combo with premier velocity, and the latter being one of the best prep pitches in the last few years. The best is yet to come in terms of his slider, and his command is trending up. There’s high-end rotation potential here.
EVALUATOR Ian Smith
5. Jack Leiter, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-Season OFP: 60
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 45 | 60 | 45 | 40 | High |
| 93-97 mph | 76-80 mph | 83-87 mph | 84-88 mph |
PHYSICAL Leiter has an athletic frame that he’s built out well while maintaining the mobility that helps add deception to his delivery. Low effort operation with good extension and a very low release point.
STRENGTHS Leiter has four pitches that could become usable offerings at the big league level. At the time of the draft, it was thought that his fastball would lead the way, but in pro ball it’s been his slider that has been his best offering. He has the best current feel to throw it, and it’s got the ability to create swings and misses. His fastball is still a solid offering, though not showing the potential it was originally hyped with. The pitch did touch 99 MPH, though. He sequences well when his command allows.
WEAKNESSES It’s tough to jump from college to Double-A, but he struggled to locate or get whiffs with his fastball, even when sequencing it well. Command is the biggest issue, and it was pretty glaring through his debut season. There were flashes of solid command, where Leiter would look as good as any arm at the level, but more often than not he was behind in counts early and often. All of his offerings play down because of this, and it adds in a sprinkle of reliever risk where there wasn’t thought to be prior to the season.
SUMMARY As his last name implies, there are some pretty impressive bloodlines here. Jack Leiter was the premier arm of his class coming out of Vanderbilt, but he looked a lot less polished in pro ball. He still has his low release that will help his fastball, but his command is not quite up to where it was advertised. There’s plenty of talent in this arm and a step forward in command in 2023 might shoot him back up the ranks, but right now there’s a lot of perceived reliever risk, and he’s showing only two average or better pitches. Truth be told, there is a lot of variance in this profile.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
6. Kumar Rocker, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 20
7. Dustin Harris, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 50
8. Justin Foscue, 2B - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 50
9. Aaron Zavala, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 45
10. Cole Winn, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 50