About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Curtis Mead, 2B/3B - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 45 | 40 | 40 | Low |
PHYSICAL Mead has physically matured since being signed in 2018, but there may even be a bit more room for added strength. He keeps his hands high but uses exceptional bat speed to consistently match plane.
STRENGTHS Mead has an excellent feel for the zone, with good patience and a willingness to jump on the first pitch. He can handle velocity and recognize spin while punishing mistakes and rarely striking out. He makes quality contact to all fields, with over-the-fence power that borderlines on plus. He posted elite top end exit velocities in the minors last year, while also running above-average contact rates, and he has a chance to emerge as a plus hitter with above-average game power. Mead’s offensive profile is one of the most polished among all minor leaguers, and he played the entire season as a 21-year-old while also reaching Triple-A by the end of the season.
WEAKNESSES Without a true position, Mead’s value is a bit limited. He has played all over the infield since signing, but his arm strength and accuracy are not up to par for a big league third baseman, and his range isn’t what it needs to be in order for him to play middle infield or in the outfield. He isn’t a liability on the basepaths but certainly doesn’t provide value in that area. His lack of defensive tools puts a ton of pressure on his bat to perform.
SUMMARY The Australian-born infielder isn’t particularly toolsy, but he has hit at every level in the minor leagues. He’ll likely get an opportunity at various spots around the infield but, even if he ends up as a full-time designated hitter, the bat should play at the big league level. Mead has been a quick mover who should make an impact for the Rays in 2023.
EVALUATOR Harris Yudin
2. Taj Bradley, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 55
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 60 | 45 | 50 | 50 | High |
| 96-100 mph | 80-84 mph | 84-87 mph | 87-89 mph |
PHYSICAL Bradley has a medium frame with a ton of athleticism. He has a strong lower half and has added strength in his upper body, and there may still be room for more. He repeats his delivery with ease, showing a consistent release point and good arm speed out of a three-quarters arm slot.
STRENGTHS Bradley’s repertoire is headlined by a lethal fastball/cutter combination. He can fill up the zone and paint the corners with the four-seam fastball, which sits comfortably in the low-to-mid-90s. At its best, his mid-to-upper-80s cutter is a true out pitch, generating late, sharp horizontal break. He mixes in a deceptive changeup that flashes at least average. He also reintroduced a curveball last season, periodically working it in as his third pitch behind the fastball and cutter. Bradley has long been a strike-thrower, and his command projects as above-average with further repetition.
WEAKNESSES Command of his secondary pitches can get away from Bradley at times. He occasionally leaves his cutter flat, and his changeup doesn’t have enough armside fade to be a consistently effective third offering. His curveball has the same consistency issue. After posting big-time strikeout numbers at every level, he struggled to put hitters away in Triple-A. He also hasn’t recorded an out in the seventh inning throughout his career, so there are some questions about him working deep into games.
SUMMARY Bradley has a high floor given his strike-throwing ability, and he will need to further develop that third pitch in order to reach his frontline potential. He will only be 22 years old at the start of the season, and he has flown up the minor league ranks, often facing hitters older than him. Tampa’s top pitching prospect should be ready to join the big league club at some point in 2023.
EVALUATOR Harris Yudin
3. Kyle Manzardo, 1B - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 50 | 40 | 40 | 30 | Low |
PHYSICAL Manzardo isn’t built like a typical hulking first baseman. He has a small waist with long legs and plenty of room to add weight, if desired. His setup is simple, starting with a wide base and some movement with his front foot to stay on time. He picks up the front foot slightly and sets it back down. The stance is very similar to former infielder Daniel Murphy.
STRENGTHS Manzardo has hit at every stop, and he walked nearly as much as he struck out in his collegiate career. He’s carried that performance over to the professional side, and his offensive game is built on his tremendous approach. It's a solid foundation for everything he does at the plate. He’s a line-to-line, hit-over-power prospect and most of his extra base hits will fall in the gaps. The quality of contact is excellent, as he hits line drives and fly balls everywhere. Manzardo posted above-average exit velocities and plus contact rates last year. His game power will likely exceed his current raw power as he gets acclimated to big league pitching.
WEAKNESSES The first baseman lacks the power generally associated with the position, at least as far as home runs are concerned. He’s a near bottom of the scale runner, and his athleticism isn’t anything to write home about, either. He’s below-average defensively, although he has a chance to become average with more repetitions. The Rays are working with him on adding strength and improving his top end exit velocity numbers.
SUMMARY Manzardo is the Rays long term solution at first base, and he should be ready to make his debut in late 2023 or early 2024. He will begin the season in Durham and could force the issue if he hits like he has during his entire career. Manzardo has one of the better hit tools in all of the minor leagues.
EVALUATOR Matt Thompson
4. Junior Caminero, 3B - 55 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 25 OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 70 | 45 | 60 | 40 | High |
PHYSICAL Caminero is taller and heavier than his listed height and weight, appearing closer to 6’3” and 190 pounds. He’s strong and still growing into his frame with room for more good weight. Caminero has become much more physical since he signed, and his quick hands and hips help generate elite bat speed. He starts slightly open with a leg kick.
STRENGTHS The 19-year-old already has elite bat speed. It’s impressive raw power and plate coverage for a teenager with elite, top-of-the-scale exit velocities. He’s shown an ability to get to that power during games, and he has all the makings of a future force in the middle of a lineup who can leave the park to all fields. He hit several backside home runs while playing winter ball in Australia, and he regularly goes with the pitch instead of forcing something. Caminero doesn’t swing and miss much for a power hitter, and he also walks at an above-average rate. He spent most of his time on the left side of the infield last year, and his plus arm and ability to make any throw will work well at third base once he transitions there full time.
WEAKNESSES Most of Caminero’s whiffs are due to his aggressive approach, and he could easily focus on toning it down to make more contact. He has already outgrown shortstop and didn’t play there once he was promoted to Single-A, but that’s not an issue given the organization’s depth at the position. Minor league defensive metrics give him positive grades, but he’ll need to work hard to become anything more than a fringe-average defender at the hot corner.
SUMMARY Caminero was traded from Cleveland to Tampa in exchange for Tobias Myers, and the early returns indicate that was a historic steal for the Rays. Caminero dealt with some injuries in 2022 but flashed tremendous upside when he was on the field. He looks to be one of the highest ceiling offensive bats in the entire minor leagues.
EVALUATOR Matt Thompson
5. Carson Williams, SS - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 16 OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 60 | 45 | 60 | 40 | High |
PHYSICAL Williams has an ideal baseball body with athleticism and quick twitch action. He looks like a natural athlete who could excel on any court or field. The former two-player that sat in the mid-90s on the mound is relatively new to just playing the field. He utilizes a very rotational swing.
STRENGTHS Williams has answered all the defensive questions and has gone from not having the glove for shortstop to quieting those concerns down and showing good actions and range at the six. He has plus arm strength and the ability to make all of the required throws. Williams has big raw power, driven by his rotational swing and double-plus exit velocities. He shows a knack for finding the barrel and doing damage, and nearly half of his hits last season went for extra bases.
WEAKNESSES The 19-year-old struck out over 32% of the time in Single-A, which is concerning. He has worrisome chase rates on pitches out of the zone but handles pitches inside the zone well enough to put the focus on his approach. There’s plenty of room for improvement. His defensive abilities are great at shortstop, but there are some concerns he could grow out of the position and slide over to third. He also has some accuracy issues on his throws which brings down his throwing grade.
SUMMARY Williams has a big league floor due to his defensive abilities at shortstop and ability to make hard contact on pitches in the zone. He also has a tendency to swing at pitches out of the zone, which pitchers will exploit as he climbs up the ladder. Ultimately his ability to make contact will decide his ultimate value, but he could become a star if it improves. Time will tell.
EVALUATOR Matt Thompson
6. Mason Montgomery, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
7. Cole Wilcox, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 10 OFP: 50
8. Willy Vasquez, 2B/3B - 45 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 9 OFP: 50
9. Mason Auer, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
10. Carlos Colmenarez, SS - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: CPX
2022 Pre-season Rank: 15 OFP: 45