The Top 20 Washington Nationals prospects headlined by Dylan Crews
The Top 20 New York Mets prospects headlined by Brandon Sproat
Most older college players sign for pennies on the dollar in the draft. It’s a bummer it has to be this way, as many of these players arguably need more money, given they’ll get less opportunity in professional ball, but it’s just the reality of the situation. Regardless, finding players who can be productive big leaguers out of this senior sign bunch is one of the best ways to find ROI in baseball. Even getting 1-2 WAR out of these players is a huge win for an MLB org. On top of that, it allows teams to take huge shots on tough-to-sign players, typically toolsy high schoolers, who otherwise wouldn’t sign. Below I list five seniors (in no particular order) who aren’t getting as much buzz as I think they deserve and have a chance to go on day two of the draft.
Admittedly, Cranton is probably my favorite prospect on this list. He’s is one of the most MLB-ready college relief prospects I can remember. It’s been a meteoric rise for Cranton, whose fastball velocity jumped 4.2 MPH between 2023 and 2024, and has been up to 99.9 this season. Some of that can be credited to moving into a full-time relief role, but it looks like other offseason changes were made, particularly getting into his lower half more, and creating a quicker, more consistent arm path. On top of the velocity added, Cranton has improved his fastball shape. He’s added an inch of induced vertical break to his fastball, taking it from just outside of deadzone at 16 IVB, to now at 17.5 inches of IVB. While this number may not blow you away on its own when you take into effect that other fastballs from similar release height average around 15 inches of IVB, you get one of the most outlier fastballs in the country. On top of this, while he’s throwing about the same number of strikes with it, he’s locating it across the top of the zone much better in 2024.
On top of these fastball improvements, Cranton has significantly altered his slider, adding 6 MPH of velocity to it, and allowing it to pair much better with his rising fastball. It now has a much tighter shape, sitting around 87 MPH with about five inches of sweep. This pitch will play much better off his fastball than the slurvy 82 MPH slider he threw in 2023.
Cranton already has the looks of a big-league reliever. Thanks to these changes, his fastball and slider garnered a 37% and 44% whiff rate in 2024, respectively. Cranton right now looks like a good middle reliever in the big leagues, but potentially adding a third pitch, such as a splitter, could take him into higher leverage situations.
Woodcox has had an up-and-down college career but finished his career strong in 2024 with a .321/.403/.642 slash line at Texas Tech. While Woodcox doesn’t have much defensive value, his bat took a huge step forward in 2024. It has the looks of plus raw power from the right side from Woodcox. His exit data is beautiful, not only does he have an average exit velo of 95 mph and a hard hit rate of 66%, but he consistently gets to his max exit velocities, with a 90th percentile EV of 108, just 3 MPH off from his max of 112. He keeps the ball off the ground and uses the whole field. However, most of his home runs have come to the pull side, so there may be some low-hanging fruit to tap into more pull-side power.
While Woodcox doesn’t make a crazy amount of contact (78%, 88% in zone, both hovering around average), but has a very selective approach. Just swinging 38% of the time, and chasing around 20%, these isn’t the type of swing decisions you’d expect to see from a power hitter like Woodcox. Additionally, he saw only 58% strikes this year, which ranked in the bottom 20% of hitters in D1 in 2024. It would be interesting to see what Woodcox can do if he sees more strikes and isn’t getting pitched around.
Woodcox is a below-average runner with solid instincts and a below-average arm in the outfield. He’s a solid athlete and will be fine out there, but most of his value comes at the plate. I like Woodcox in a soft-side platoon role.
We go from a power-driven profile to one that lacks any real power but does everything else on the field well. Hadeen missed all of his draft-eligible 2023 season with a shoulder injury but has made up for this in his senior season in a big way. The switch hitter hit .362/.529/.420 in 2024 while walking more than he struck out. Hadeen is an on-base king, only chasing 8% of the time in 2024! This is the sixth lowest in all of D1. On top of his strike zone discipline, he runs an 89% contact rate, while posting above-average line drive rates. It’s a spray, all-fields approach, something you don’t typically see from a hitter with this type of strike zone discipline. While there isn’t much thump here (101 max EV, 98 MPH 90th), Hadeen’s selectivity and barrel control should allow for some doubles and high on-base percentages.
Hadeen has also shown slick fielding ability in the field. It’s plus hands, footwork, and actions, and is incredibly smooth around the bag. While it’s likely only fringe arm strength, Hadeen can throw from different platforms and angles incredibly well. Take for example this slowly hit ball to his right, which he gets out of his glove incredibly quick, and throws off his right foot to nab a speedy runner. It’s not uncommon to see players add strength, let alone arm strength in professional baseball, so there’s likely the makings of an average arm strength that plays above average. This is a player who can play all three infield positions.
I wrote about Gordon when I caught the Ducks at Globe Life Field the first weekend of the season. He was filling up the zone with a 92-93 cut ride fastball, landing a big 12-6 breaker, and turning over an average changeup. I felt like his pitch mix was missing an out pitch vs right-handers, and that a sweeper would fit his arm slot and supination-heavy profile, as he was only throwing a low to mid 80’s cuttery slider. Well, it looks like before his March 15th start vs Cal, Gordon added a sweeper full-time and is throwing his cutter harder. Averaging 13 inches of sweep at 83 MPH, this sweeper has the makings of a true out pitch vs right handed hitters.
However, there have been some struggles for Gordon learning this pitch, as it only has a 20% miss rate, but I would argue this is likely Gordon is still gaining feel for a pitch that’s tough to command, let alone learn in-season. This pitch will flash double plus, as the video below is one with positive IVB, almost 20 inches of sweep, and throw 84 MPH, but Gordon is still gaining feel for it. While the pitch shape averages are good, it’s been a bit more inconsistent than you’d like. It’s a pitch he leaves over the heart of the plate a bit too often, and while it may get some called strikes, in predictable counts hitters can sit on it and do damage as long as they see it out of the hand. I like Gordon’s pitch mix a lot. While the results haven’t fully been there, tinkering in season can be tough, especially for a guy who missed all of 2023 with an injury. On top of this, given the run-scoring environment in college baseball in 2024, Gordon has a solid set of skills that I believe should translate better than his baseball card numbers may indicate. I still think there’s a #5 starter upside here, especially if the right team gets ahold of him.
Leary is another patient power-hitting outfielder, this time from the ACC. With a 110 90th percentile EV and 114 max, Leary hits the snot out of the ball. Leary likes to pull the ball in the air, with a pull rate that’s 5% higher than the D1 average. With a free swinger, this isn’t a profile that would generally work for a long time, but I think with Leary’s level of patience, this should be able to transfer well to pro ball. His 16% chase rate is in the 88th percentile of college hitters, and he’s another guy who saw an incredibly low rate of strikes at 53%. He’s incredibly patient with a 37% swing rate overall, but his 68% in-zone swing rate is right at the D1 average, telling me he walks the line between selective and passive. While there are certainly swing-and-miss concerns, and Leary won’t be a player who hits for a high average, he should be able to walk and be selective enough to keep his profile afloat.
Defensively, Leary has some interesting attributes. As a 40-runner, he certainly has a home in the outfield. It’s a below-average arm, so he probably fits best in LF, but he did play 161 innings in center in 2024. While it’s not blazing speed out there, Leary gets good jobs and takes nice routes to balls. I’m not saying he’s an everyday centerfielder or even a defensive replacement out there, but the fact he’s able to hold it down at this level makes me like his chances to be an everyday left-fielder at the next level.
Leary struggles a bit vs left-handers, hitting the ball a bit softer and on the ground more, often still trying to stay with his pull-side approach it appears. That being said, he makes the same amount of contact here and only chases a touch more vs southpaws, so maybe an approach change could be in play here. Regardless, I like Leary’s potential as a strong-side platoon option.
