While everything in Texas is bigger, this introduction won’t be. This is a practice in futility and there’s a lot of rumors and potential chaos abound. Prepare for mayhem accordingly!
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1. Cleveland Guardians - INF JJ Wetherholt
Slot Value: $10,570,600
Sitting from this chair, it seems the running for 1.1 has come down to JJ Wetherholt and Travis Bazzana. Given the consideration for draft strategy with two more Top 50 picks, the likelihood that Cleveland gets a significant haircut is high and I would be shocked to see otherwise. With that said, who is more likely to give you that out of those two? Our guess is Wetherholt and it mainly comes down to the fact that he'd provide the bigger haircut and fits on the left side of the infield more than Bazzana. The savings that Wetherholt would provide allow Cleveland to float a prep down to #36 and even #48 if the money works out in their favor. Expect this situation to be fluid throughout the day and there is a good likelihood that the pool of players in consideration is higher than these two.
2. Cincinnati Reds - 3B/OF Charlie Condon
Slot Value: $9,785,000
The gut feeling right now is that Cincinnati prefers a power bat over a power arm, though there's been a Chase Burns connection recently. However, Charlie Condon appears to be the name linked the most with the Reds. This is, of course, assuming Cleveland doesn't go haywire. Caglianone makes sense here, too.
3. Colorado Rockies - RHP Chase BUrns
Slot Value: $9,070,800
There's been heat around a few guys here, including Burns, Condon, and Caglianone. This seems to be an early pivotal pick in this draft considering that Colorado could be in a wait-and-see mode with the two picks above them, but Burns makes the most sense in our eyes. They've quietly done a good job with Chase Dollander and Sean Sullivan, among others, in last year's draft and Burns has arguably the highest upside of any arm available. This seems to be Condon's floor, too.
4. Oakland AThletics - INF Travis Bazzana
Slot Value: $8,370,800
If Bazzana isn't the first overall pick, this is his likely ending spot. It's hard to envision this kind of bat slipping out of the top five and Oakland would be giddy to get a great value pick early. Now, if Bazzana is the first overall pick, expect a myriad of players to be in discussion here, including Nick Kurtz and Jac Caglianone.
5. Chicago White Sox - 1B/LHP Jac CAglianone
Slot Value: $7,763,700
To us, Caglianone feels like the leader in the clubhouse right now, though this may be a more pivotal pick than the Rockies at #3. If Caglianone is gone here, there's an expectation that the two prep bats in Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer would be in heavy consideration. Consider this one more of a toss-up in all seriousness.
6. Kansas City Royals - INF Bryce Rainer
Slot Value: $7,213,800
Kansas City really threw us a curveball the night before the draft by trading pick #39 to the Nationals in the Hunter Henry deal. They lose $2,395,000 of their bonus pool, giving them closer to $13,000,000 now to sign their allotted picks. They do still have an early second-round selection, so maybe their strategy doesn't change much. Who knows. As of right now, it feels like it'll come down to one of the prep bats or Hagen Smith. We'll go with Rainer for right now, and maybe there's a slight haircut, but again, who knows? This could very well be where Smith ends up.
7. St. Louis Cardinals - LHP Hagen Smith
Slot Value: $6,823,700
Assuming the Royals end up taking a prep bat, Smith makes a ton of sense for the Cardinals and I'd be shocked if they let him slip past them. Pairing him with 2023 draftee Quinn Mathews would be a fun southpaw duo. If Smith is taken before this pick, we'd expect either Rainer or Griffin here, more so Rainer.
8. Los Angeles Angels - INF Christian Moore
Slot Value: $6,502,800
The Angels are always tricky to identify a specific player in a mock. We know their recent demographic, a fast-moving college guy, but who could that be this year? Braden Montgomery is hurt and while I think he's got a chance here, the injury he sustained in Super Regionals may play a factor in their decision-making, unless they turn a new leaf. Look no further than Christian Moore, Tennessee's offensive catalyst in their CWS run. He has the chance to move quickly in their system and likely comes at a discount, as the Angels have liked to pay a prep in later rounds (i.e. Caden Dana, Barrett Kent).
9. Pittsburgh Pirates - 1B Nick Kurtz
Slot Value: $6,216,600
This pick likely comes down to whichever prep bat is still available (in this case, it's Griffin) and Nick Kurtz. Kurtz is a Pennsylvania native and may present a discount for Pittsburgh's competitive balance pick, though that feeling is not set in stone for us. We'll mock Kurtz for now, but expect an appearance from Griffin.
10. Washington Nationals - OF Braden Montgomery
Slot Value: $5,953,800
Things may get a bit hectic here, but in this scenario, Montgomery's fall comes to an end. He may need to ditch switch-hitting and perform as a left-handed bat, but that's fine. Kurtz makes a ton of sense here if the order changes, plus there's a good chance we could see someone else here. I wouldn't say expect potential chaos, but expect the boards to open up a bit here.
11. Detroit Tigers - INF/OF Konnor Griffin
Slot Value: $5,712,100
Detroit's brass would be pretty happy with Griffin falling into their lap at #11. There's a big link to Cam Caminiti at this spot and I'd imagine that's the likely route, but this is a scenario where the other half of the best prep bats is available. There's some Caleb Lomavita smoke here, too, but that's a rumor we don't feel too confident in. It's still worth noting, nonetheless.
12. Boston REd Sox - RHP Trey Yesavage
Slot Value: $5,484,600
Given Craig Breslow's arrival in Boston, our gut still tells us that ECU's Trey Yesavage is the best fit and would more than likely be available here. He's the last of the premier college arms in this class and fits Boston's organizational needs to a tee. If a top ten player falls to #12, though, expect Boston to pounce.
13. San Francisco Giants - LHP Cam Caminiti
Slot Value: $5,272,300
Assuming Caminiti isn't a Tiger, the next best fit would be the Giants at #13. It'd likely be his absolute floor and that's exactly what happens in this mock scenario. We're prepared to be wrong, though if Yesavage and Cam Smith are available here, we'd expect them to be in consideration.
14. Chicago Cubs - 3B Cameron Smith
Slot Value: $5,070,700
Speaking of Cam Smith, I'd expect the Cubs to pull the trigger if he's available. There's a plethora of college performeres available here and we'd imagine that the Cubs dive into that player pool. Smith's approach changes and power really stand out and he can handle the hot corner.
15. Seattle Mariners - SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje
Slot Value: $4,880,900
The expectation from Seattle is that this pick will likely be pitching. Many, including ourselves, view Jurrangelo Cijntje as SP4 in the college ranks, especially as a right-hander. Yes, there's uniqueness with the switch-pitching, but the stuff from the right side is bringing plenty of suitors to his doorstep. This would likely be Yesavage's floor and we can envision names like Carson Benge to be in consideration here if they go for a bat.
16. Miami Marlins - INF Seaver King
Slot Value: $4,704,700
New Marlins GM Peter Bendix was in Charlotte during the ACC Championship to get eyes on the likes of Seaver King and others. Miami's approach may go bat-heavy now and King seems like an excellent fit at this range, so we'll trust our gut and say he's the pick here.
17. Milwaukee Brewers - OF Ryan Waldschmidt
Slot Value: $4,534,100
Our expectation is that Milwaukee will look for a bat at this spot, though who that is isn't set in stone. Benge makes sense here, though we like Kentucky OF Ryan Waldschmidt more. He's a solid mold of clay for the organization to play with and most believe his best baseball is yet to come. It's a fun analytical fit.
18. Tampa Bay Rays - RHP Ryan Sloan
Slot Value: $4,372,900
There's a plethora of routes that Tampa Bay could go here, but I'd imagine some of the prep arms begin to get some notice here. Ryan Sloan makes the most sense of those arms. The burly right-hander has an excellent three-pitch mix with loud secondaries and has been into the upper-90s this spring. If it's not an arm, we wouldn't be shocked by a prep bat.
19. New YOrk Mets - INF Kaelen Culpepper
Slot Value: $4,219,200
The Mets have a preference for an up-the-middle type of bat and Kaelen Culpepper has the chops to stick at shortstop long term. Vance Honeycutt's name could make an appearance here, too. However, the link between the Mets and Culpepper is too strong to go that route at this time.
20. Toronto Blue Jays - C Malcolm Moore
Slot Value: $4,073,400
The expectation is that Toronto will take a college catcher here, though the real question is which one that'll be. In our eyes, Malcolm Moore is the best available catcher of that group and has solid underlying data to boot. Of course, if it's not Moore, Lomavita, and Walker Janek make the most sense.
21. Minnesota Twins - OF James Tibbs III
Slot Value: $3,934,400
Do we expect James Tibbs III to slip this far? No. In all honesty, there's a good likelihood that he goes way higher. There is some worry about his platoon splits and if he falls like we think he will in this mock, the Twins would be more than happy to scoop him up. He fits their recent trends to a tee.
22. Baltimore Orioles - OF Carson Benge
Slot Value: $3,802,200
Baltimore has liked Culpepper and Honeycutt, though, with one gone and the other having legitimate hit tool concerns, the Orioles may pivot to Benge. Benge's swing is a bit of a project, though Baltimore's hitting development would be perfect for him. It's an extremely fun fit.
23. Los Angeles Dodgers - INF/OF Theo Gillen
Slot Value: $3,676,400
Our expectation is that the Dodgers will go after one of the prep shortstops available in the backend of the first round. Theo Gillen makes the most sense in our eyes right now. Luke Dickerson, Wyatt Sanford, and others are potential fits, too. This is legitimate toss-up territory for us.
24. Atlanta Braves - RHP Dax Whitney
Slot Value: $3,556,300
Dax Whitney has the most helium of any prospect at this present time. It's a projectable frame with budding secondaries and a potentially loud heater. The Braves seem to have an eye on a prep arm and while Kash Mayfield makes a ton of sense, the heat around Whitney is too hard to ignore.
25. San Diego Padres - LHP Kash Mayfield
Slot Value: $3,442,100
The Padres love their preps, that's no secret. There's a grouping of prep guys here, though Mayfield seems like the best fit of that gaggle and would be a fun get for Preller and company. If it's not Mayfield, Kellon Lindsey's name gets some run here.
26. New York Yankees - 1B/3B Tommy White
Slot Value: $3,332,900
The likelihood that the Yankees go with a bat is pretty high and while this may end up being a prep selection, the Yankees may target a performing college bat. That includes Billy Amick, Tommy White, and others. White's bat is the best of that group and our gut tells us he'd be the pick here if it works out that way.
27. philadelphia Phillies - RHP Brody Brecht
Slot Value: $3,228,300
Depending on how you feel about Brody Brecht, this could be in the middle of his potential range or it could be near the top of it. Either which way, the Phillies have the pitching development to at least help Brecht clean up the delivery and improve the strikes necessary to start.
28. HOuston Astros - C Walker Janek
Slot Value: $3,132,500
The Astros have the lowest bonus pool total and it's hard to envision a prep player being the pick here, especially this slot alone is over half of Houston's total pool. Our gut tells us it will likely be one of the college catchers. Janek would be a bit of a surprise since he has suitors higher up on this board, but he'd help Houston save some money if they wanna utilize the most of their money later on.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks - SS Kellon Lindsey
Slot Value: $3,045,500
This is the first of three Arizona picks in the next six. Arizona likes high-contact bats and Lindsey certainly profiles as such. He's also a very impressive runner and many believe he has the chops to stick at shortstop. Expect Arizona to maximize their money over the next couple of picks. Slade Caldwell could be the pick here, as well.
30. Texas Rangers - C Caleb Lomavita
Slot Value: $2,971,300
Whichever college catcher becomes available to Texas at #30, whether it be Janek or Lomavita, makes the most sense to us. Lomavita's got some more raw tools, but the upside is high if everything clicks.
31. Arizona Diamondbacks - RHP Braylon Doughty
Slot Value: $2,904,000
Arizona is back on the clock and this time, our gut feel says it's a prep arm. There's a few options available to them, including Joey Oakie and Dasan Hill, but it's hard to see Doughty falling much further than this. Teams love the feel to spin and there's a good chance he adds more velocity in due time.
32. Baltimore Orioles - INF Wyatt SAnford
Slot Value: $2,835,400
This pick is a bit of wild card. The Orioles have the cash to splurge a little and there's a good chance a prep player is taken here. Dickerson, Caldwell, and Carter Johnson make sense, but it's hard to ignore the projection and tools surrounding Sanford.
33. Minnesota Twins - OF Slade Caldwell
Slot Value: $2,766,100
A potential high-OBP kind of bat for the Twins? Yeah, that's got Caldwell's bat written all over it. It feels like a solid match from this desk.
34. Milwaukee Brewers - OF Vance Honeycutt
Slot Value: $2,698,300
Is it possible that Honeycutt falls this far? Maybe. In this scenario, he does and Milwaukee is as good of a fit as it can get for him. It's a bit of a toss-up if Honeycutt is not available.
35. Arizona Diamondbacks - INF Carter Johnson
Slot Value: $2,632,500
It's time for the last Arizona pick in this mock and we will continue the expectation that they'll utilize as much of their change as humanly possible. Johnson may command a bit of an over-slot deal here, but it's hard to not love the bat path and potential power.
36. Cleveland Guardians - 1B/OF PJ Morlando
Slot Value: $2,569,200
Well, with William Schmidt pulling himself from the draft at the eleventh hour, there's some changes here. There was a plan B to this scenario and for us, it's hard to ignore the availability and tools with Morlando. We'll see what ultimately happens.
37. Pittsburgh Pirates - RHP Bryce Meccage
Slot Value: $2,511,400
There's a bloodline link here, as Meccage's uncle is a bullpen coach in Pittsburgh. Many teams have preferred Meccage over the likes of other prominent Northeast arms and it's easy to see why. Starter traits, a budding arsenal with two banger breaking balls, plus he's been up to 96 MPH this spring.
38. Colorado Rockies - RHP Luke Holman
Slot Value: $2,452,200
Colorado's likely searching for a college arm at this point and things begin to get a bit murky this deep. Ben Hess has been tossed around, as well as Drew Beam. Luke Holman's more of a safer pick, but there's some upside here if he can throw harder and command the baseball better.
39. Washington Nationals - SS Tyson Lewis
Slot Value: $2,395,000
There's a good likelihood that Lewis finds himself higher on this board, but given the Nationals' additional pool money now, could they buy him down? That scenario plays out in our minds and could ultimately happen.
