One of the tools we rely on heavily at Prospects Live when evaluating players at both the pro and amateur levels is data. Basically, our process for evaluation and analysis involves blending live looks, data, and industry chatter. Using all the tools available to us to help paint the most accurate picture possible is the ultimate goal. Analytics and data are often framed as a warring faction against scouting and “boots on the ground” evaluation. That may be an accurate depiction for some areas of the baseball world, but here at Prospects Live, we believe that all the pieces matter. Data is a tool. Stopwatches are a tool. Radar guns, too. If it aids us in our mission to provide accurate, detailed, and informative content, we’re going to use it. The draft team at Prospects Live keeps an eye on hundreds of MLB draft prospects each year. Those live looks, just like the data, are integral to our evaluation methods. No “battle” exists between the two in our minds.
Beyond evaluation, we use data to help identify players that are worth closer inspection. Evaluating college baseball in the Northeast region (for the purposes of this article, the Northeast region includes the following states: CT, MA, ME, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, and VT) has its fair share of challenges. Smaller programs, varying levels of competition, and unpredictable weather represent just a few of those challenges. In the public space where Prospects Live operates, information can be difficult to come by, which leads to players with “draft pedigree” slipping through the cracks. Pro teams and area scouts likely know about these hidden gems, but they aren’t exactly motivated to spill the beans. Data helps us uncover some of those types of players, which in turn makes our draft analysis, boards, and rankings more accurate. The goals of this piece were to highlight a handful of ballplayers with intriguing hitting or pitching data while also modeling how we use data at Prospects Live to identify players. Because of that, I shied away from including more well-known players from the region, such as Mike Sirota, and opted to stay true to the process that I use to find talented ballplayers that belong in the draft discussion. Here are five players that are worth monitoring from the Northeast region.
TREVOR COHEN
School: Rutgers
Position: Outfield
Class: Sophomore | 2025 Draft
B-T: Left-Left
H-W: 6’1-195
*Photo Credit: Rich Graessle
Trevor Cohen was an opening-day starter for the Scarlet Knights in 2023 as a freshman, flanking superstar centerfielder Ryan Lasko in left field. His 4-for-4 performance against Campbell was a sign of things to come, as Cohen went on to have a more than respectable debut season with a final batting line of .298/.383./.353 with 26 walks and 22 strikeouts in 261 plate appearances. That level of production earned Cohen a spot on the Big Ten All-Freshman Team, and he was named Big Ten Freshman of the Week twice last spring. Cohen is a player worth getting excited about if you are a Scarlet Knight supporter, and the underlying offensive data reinforces that feeling. So what does Cohen do that is so special? It’s simple, really:
Cohen finished his freshman year with a contact rate slightly above 90%. That 90% contact threshold places Cohen in an exclusive group among qualified D1 hitters (min. 100 PA), and you can count the number of freshmen to clear that mark on two hands. In our available dataset, Cohen appears to be the youngest D1 player to record a contact rate of 90% or higher during the 2023 season. While there are undoubtedly aspects of Cohen’s game that can stand to improve, his ability to consistently make contact right from the outset establishes a sturdy foundation to build upon.
I saw Cohen twice during the fall, and while the build remains lean, it looked like he added some good weight during the offseason. He hit a homer in a scrimmage against Vanderbilt and a triple off the center field wall against Stony Brook, perhaps a sign of things to come for Cohen in his second college season. Cohen split time between center and right field this fall. He is likely better suited for right long-term, which puts more pressure on his bat. He has quick, adjustable hands with an innate feel for the barrel. However, he tends to get on top of the ball, which leads to grounders and limits his power production. I would be shocked if Cohen didn’t significantly improve both his extra-base (nine XBH) and home run (one HR) totals from last spring. He’s currently in the “tweener” category, but Cohen has two more years to develop a little more thump to pair with his advanced bat-to-ball ability. He has a realistic chance to be one of the top college bats for the 2025 draft in the northeast region.
NICK ROSELLI
School: Binghamton
Position: Second Base
Class: Junior | 2024 Draft
B-T: Left-Right
H-W: 5’10-195
While Trevor Cohen excelled in an individual category (contact %), Binghamton second basemen, Nick Roselli distinguished himself in several offensive categories. He enters his junior year with a career .336/.426/.569 batting line with nearly equal walks to strikeouts (49:53) and 18 long balls. Some of Roselli’s top accomplishments to date include finishing 2nd in program history for RBI in a single season with 61 RBI last spring, recording a seventeen-game hitting streak that went from April to May, and being a Regional All-Tournament selection as a freshman in 2022, where he went 6-8 with two homers in two games. Roselli will be among the elite performers in Binghamton baseball history with a successful campaign in year three of his college career.
Roselli is undersized, but there’s plenty of strength in his compact frame, especially in the upper half. He has short levers, which allow him to control the inner half of the plate and get good loft when turning on inside fastballs. While he doesn’t have huge raw power, the batted ball data suggests Roselli has the ability to impact the ball enough at the pro level. Roselli’s average exit velocity was above 92 MPH, and his sweet spot percentage (batted balls with 95+ EV and 10°-30° launch angle) eclipsed the 25% mark. Roselli ranked among the 90th percentile in both categories, according to our dataset from the 2023 season. He amplified those totals with strong contact and chase rates, showing off his well-rounded offensive skillset. For the year, Roselli’s overall contact rate hovered right around 85%, with an even higher rate of contact against fastballs 93 MPH or higher, and he chased pitches outside of the strike zone at a 17% clip. Those are solid totals for sure, and while neither the contact nor chase percentages are elite, they indicate that Roselli’s offensive production to date isn’t simply a small conference mirage. When you combine the batted ball data that was referenced earlier, you end up with a highly intriguing ballplayer that merits closer evaluation.
Playing at Binghamton in the America East conference has allowed Roselli to fly under the national radar to date. But if he’s able to run it back in year three, show he can stick at second base defensively, and continue producing with Bourne on the Cape this summer, he’ll get some love on draft boards across the industry.
NICK GROVES
School: Niagara
Position: Centerfield
Class: Sophomore | 2025 Draft
B-T: Left-Right
H-W: 5’10-170
*Photo Credit: Michael P Majewski
If it’s easy for a guy like Nick Roselli to fly under the radar at Binghamton, think about what it must be like to play college ball minutes away from the Canadian border. That’s the reality for sophomore Nick Groves, a centerfielder who led all of D1 baseball in walks per game (1.21 BB/G) and amassed more base-on-balls in a single season than any player in Niagara and MAAC history. Groves displayed superlative table-setting skills atop the Purple Eagles lineup, finishing the 2023 season with a .339/.504/.421 batting line. An Ontario native, Groves has a chance to be the first Purple Eagle selected in the MLB Draft since Matt Brash (Padres, 4th round) back in 2019.
As you might have guessed, Groves’ inclusion in this article is based on his plate discipline and approach as a hitter. Those elite walk totals have to come from somewhere, right? Groves finished his freshmen season with a superb chase rate of around 14%. That’s an impressive rate on its own, but when you combine that with some of Groves’ other tools, you can picture the overall profile attracting eyeballs from area scouts. Groves ran a contact rate in the 80-85% range, showing an ability to handle decent velocity, spin, and offspeed offerings. On top of that, Groves has outstanding speed that he began to harness more effectively as he got his feet wet in college ball. Sources I reached out to said Groves’ run grade is at least a 60 and potentially a 70 grade tool presently. Groves also looks extremely capable in center field and even has some experience manning the keystone. So, put that all together, and what do you have? A twitchy athlete with serious wheels who controls the strike zone, puts the bat on the ball, and plays up the middle defensively. Sounds like an ideal leadoff hitter, no?
Of course, Groves will need to show more impact at the dish. His power production in 2023 was underwhelming, to put it nicely. He can get a little passive at the plate, though there is some evidence that he began to show more positive aggression as the spring progressed, while the swing can drift from ‘slasher’ and into ‘slap’ territory. Still, the base of skills and tools are palpable, and Groves has two more years to complement his game with some added impact at the plate. It’s not a perfect one-to-one comparison, but Groves reminds me a little bit of former Demon Deacon Tommy Hawke. Hawke had a similar profile and toolset as Groves (he even played a little middle infield) following his freshman year in 2022 but was able to grow into some power during his draft year. That bump in power was enough for Hawke to hear his name called by the Guardians in the 6th round last July. Whether Groves can follow a similar path remains to be seen, but there’s no question that he’ll be followed closely by MLB clubs over the next couple of years.
RYAN DROMBOSKI
School: Penn
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
Class: Junior | 2024 Draft
H-W: 6’2-205
*Photo Credit: Michael Nance
I’m going to steal a term from Baseball America for a moment to describe Ryan Dromboski. He’s one of my personal cheeseballs in the 2024 draft class. The New Jersey native was named Ivy League Pitcher of the Year last spring and is an early favorite to obtain that honor once again in 2024. The junior righty finished his second year at Penn with a 3.17 ERA, 97 strikeouts, 35 walks, and 51 hits allowed in 71 innings. During conference play, Dromboski put together a 15-strikeout performance against Princeton and followed it up with a complete game, 12-strikeout outing against Brown. He also earned a win against #13 Auburn during regionals, allowing just two runs in 5.1 innings. Dromboski pitches with an incredible amount of intensity on the mound and can often be heard roaring after securing a big out. A self-described psychopath on the mound, Dromboski is the undisputed leader of this Quakers pitching staff, a group that looks poised to do some damage in postseason play for a second straight year.
There are a couple of data areas that are particularly striking with Dromboski. First, his four-seam fastball (91 MPH avg; 95 MPH max) has an extremely low vertical approach angle (VAA), below -3.75. That puts him in the top 1% among qualified D1 pitchers, according to our dataset from 2023. A ‘flat’ approach angle isn’t the end-all-be-all, but it’s a data point that pro teams value highly, and Dromboski’s VAA is firmly in outlier territory. Dromboski also used a sinker about half as often as the four-seam, and it actually had better results when it came to generating whiffs. That might be due to Dromboski’s other remarkable attribute, the strength of his slider, a pitch that tends to pair well with sinkers. Last year, Dromboski’s sinker had over 17 inches of horizontal break (HB) to his arm side with about 10 inches of induced vertical break (IVB). Combine that with a low 80s slider that averages over 15 inches of HB in the opposite direction with 5 inches of IVB and you have quite the one-two punch to keep hitters guessing. Dromboski threw his sweeper nearly as often as his four-seam last year (over 33% usage), and for good reason, as he racked up a whiff rate over 55% and an in-zone whiff rate above 40%. The slider is a clear plus-level pitch, which is probably a conservative grade when you consider both the shape of the slider and the way it pairs with the rest of his arsenal. For good measure, Dromboski also has a solid changeup with good arm-side fading action and great velocity separation off his fastball (~11 MPH). He pitches with some effort and he can lose control of his fastball at times, but the upside is immense, especially if his velocity adds a tick or two this spring.
I’m not entirely sure why Dromboski hasn’t received the attention that he’s clearly worthy of. Maybe it’s a lack of exposure. Maybe it’s a general hesitation when ranking pitchers out of the Ivy League. Whatever the reason, Dromboski hasn’t received a ton of love on preseason draft rankings in the public space. Expect that to change quickly as the 2024 season kicks into full gear.
RYAN REICH
School: Seton Hall
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
Class: Sophomore | 2025 Draft
H-W: 6’2-215
I wrote about sophomore Ryan Reich a few months ago after checking out Seton Hall this past fall. To quickly recap, Reich was one of the top relievers in the Big East last year, emerging as a late-inning weapon for the Pirates last spring. He has since been named to multiple preseason All-Big East teams as he is expected to slide right into the weekend rotation in 2024. After seeing Reich live, it’s clear that he has gotten stronger, with the physicality necessary to handle a much larger role. On top of that, I also saw clear growth in his pitch arsenal during that short appearance, which suggested to me that there is legitimate draft potential moving forward.
So, what is it that makes Reich so interesting? The heater. You have probably heard commentators and analysts use the term “explosive fastball” before. A handful of Reich’s fastballs absolutely exploded during the scrimmage I intended. And I’m not talking about velocity here. Plenty of hard throwers have fastballs that lack life and are more hittable than you’d expect, given the radar gun readings. Reich’s velocity is moving in the right direction. He was up to 93 MPH and sitting around 90 MPH in my look, which is a slight uptick from 2023, when he averaged 88 MPH on his fastball. Even at 90 MPH, hitters have trouble catching up and squaring the pitch, thanks to the explosiveness that I mentioned earlier. This is an obvious example of a pitcher’s fastball playing above its velocity, and the data helps to confirm this.
Extension: 6.4-6.5 feet of extension in his delivery, roughly MLB average
Release Height: between 4.9-5.0 feet. Way below the D1 and MLB average,
18+ inches of induced vertical break (IVB)
Without getting too deep in the weeds with pitch data, these data areas all suggest that what I saw from Reich during that scrimmage was real. Like Dromboski, Reich has a low, flat approach angle (VAA) on his fastball in the -3.90 to -4.00 range, giving it that explosion as it crosses the plate. With such a low approach and solid extension, the pitch gets on hitters quickly and gives off the ‘rising fastball’ illusion that results in empty swings. The results on Dromboski’s four-seamer were just OK, but Reich’s were phenomenal. Even at the lower velocity that Reich showed last spring, he recorded an overall whiff rate and in-zone whiff rate above 30%. When I first saw those percentages, I figured they must be pretty good. But after taking a closer look it was clear that not only were they good, they were kind of special. Take a look at the chart below:
Those are all of the qualified pitchers from our dataset with a fastball that had both a 30% whiff rate and a 30% in-zone whiff rate in 2023. The majority of those pitchers are either in pro ball now or, like Reich, won’t be draft-eligible until 2025. Side note: Tennessee’s AJ Russell might be pretty good. Obviously, Reich threw fewer innings than many on this list, and he also faced a different level of competition, but the overall point remains true. When you miss bats like this with your fastball, pro teams are going to pay attention. And if he starts throwing harder over the next two seasons, those whiff rates may climb even further.
Reich isn’t a finished product by any means. We still need to see how he performs in a starting role. There’s a little violence and head movement in the delivery that could signal a future in the pen. We’ll also need to see how he complements his fastball moving forward. His curveball and changeup were both lackluster in 2023. However, both pitches appeared to be overhauled, with the curve looking more like a true slider, flashing short, late break at 80 MPH, and the changeup featuring splitter-type action at 83 MPH. The development of those two pitches will greatly determine what kind of ‘ceiling’ Reich has as a draft prospect, but the fastball data and results immediately turn him into a high-priority follow for the next two years.
