Before becoming a member of the Toronto Blue Jays front office, Carson Cistulli was one of the more prominent and influential writers at Fangraphs. Carson’s work at Fangraphs was always insightful and usually good for at least a few laugh-out-loud quips or observations. My favorite piece from Carson was the ‘Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects ’ series, which sought to highlight under-the-radar professional prospects. Cistulli had a good deal of success pinpointing prospects for the ‘Fringe Five’ with prospects like LaMonte Wade, David Fletcher, and Jonathan Loaisiga being just a few examples.
One of my favorite aspects of the draft is the pursuit of finding talent outside of the early rounds. The first couple of rounds understandably receives the most attention from fans, the media, and the industry. Still, my favorite portion of the draft doesn’t start until about halfway through day two. Because of this, I felt that a college baseball version of the ‘Fringe Five’ would be a great way to shed some light on draft-eligible players that pique my interest and who I believe draft hounds ought to know. I intend to use available data, game footage, and live looks/scouting reports to fill my fringe five lists. The criteria for inclusion are as follows:
Must be eligible for the 2022 MLB Draft
Must play at the Division 1 College Level
Can’t be included on the current Prospects Live Draft Board.
Pretty simple, right? Because the Prospects Live draft board will grow as we approach draft day, any added players to the board will be ineligible for future ‘Fringe Five’ pieces.
*All stat lines should be accurate as of 5/16/22
Chuck Ingram, OF, Wichita State
Bats/Throw: Right / Right
Height/Weight: 6-0 / 210
Year/Draft Age: Sophomore / 20.11
The numbers don’t lie. Ingram strikes out way too much as over 25% of his plate appearances have ended in a K. He whiffs often and chases out of the zone at a very high rate. Ingram performs much better against fastballs than offspeed (identifying spin looks to be a real issue), but the whiff and chase rates on heaters are still relatively high. So why do I include him? Well, it turns out that Ingram hits the ball hard. Like really hard.
That ball went 114 MPH and traveled 420 feet on a line to Ingram’s pull side. Ingram’s max exit velocity this year is 116 MPH. That is ELITE level power. Power isn’t everything, and the holes in his offensive game are a reason for concern. He’s currently a centerfielder for the Shockers but likely slides to a corner as a pro. Working in Ingram’s favor is that he’s young for the class (20.11 years old on draft day) as a draft-eligible sophomore. Ingram had less than 100 college plate appearances before this season, so there could be some untapped growth as he matures as a hitter. It might take another college campaign for teams to hop on board fully. Still, we’ve seen college sluggers like Ivan Melendez significantly improve their whiff and K rates after returning to campus. It may be worth it for a team to ‘jump the line’ and bet on the power carrying the profile in pro ball.
Blake Rambusch, 3B, Auburn
Bats/Throw: Right / Right
Height/Weight: 5-9 / 175
Year/Draft Age: Fourth-Year Junior / 22.10
Blake Rambusch is close to the polar opposite of Chuck Ingram. He’s not punchless, but Rambusch drives his offensive profile with the ability to control the strike zone and make a high rate of contact. A junior college transfer from Grayson College, Rambusch has been a perfect table setter at the top of Auburn’s lineup. He’s a high-energy player that provides a spark on both sides of the ball. He’s been Auburn’s everyday third baseman but profiles better as a second baseman at the next level. Rambusch is undersized at 5’9, but he runs well and is an intelligent ball player who makes the most out of his tools. A utility profile is likely in Rambusch’s pro future.
Rambusch’s defining characteristic is his ability to get the bat to the ball. His whiff rate is below 10% on the year, and his whiff rate on fastballs is below 5%. On top of the superb bat-to-ball ability, Rambusch has displayed an extremely patient approach and above-average chase rates this season. A considerable percentage of Rambusch’s batted balls are up the middle and the opposite way making it difficult to project much game power without a swing change. Rambusch has shown the ability to cover the entire strike zone and find the barrel consistently. He’ll be close to 23 years old on draft day, but his age and SEC performance could make him an appealing underslot signing towards the back half of the top ten rounds.
Dalton Shuffield, SS, Texas State
Bats/Throw: Right / Right
Height/Weight: 5’9 / 170
Year/Draft Age: Fifth-Year Senior / 23.03
Shuffield has been a solid contributor throughout his college career but has taken his game to a new level in 2022. He’s been named Sun Belt player of the week three times and is likely the frontrunner to win SBC player of the year. Shuffield has that old-school, college grinder profile that wins you with his energy and intensity on the diamond. Shuffield’s setup and swing at the plate are unorthodox. Potential first-rounder Zach Neto is one of the funkier hitters in college baseball, but his swing looks toned down compared to Shuffield.
Whatever the case, Shuffield makes the swing work. He can cover the outside part of the plate well and has enough raw pop to drive the ball over the fence to the opposite field. A good chunk of his extra base hits has gone the opposite way, including four of his twelve homers. Shuffield has also shown to be capable of covering the inner portion of the plate and is tough to beat inside consistently. Despite his size, Shuffield has recorded strong exit velocity readings. He also hits a high percentage of fly balls, over 45%. His contact rate has been a strength, with solid contact rates against good velocity (93+ MPH) in a small sample. Shuffield tends to chase offspeed pitches down and out of the zone. Shuffield may have difficulty maintaining balance against quality secondary pitches with the amount of moving parts in his swing. Still, Shuffield has shown in-game power while flashing the ability to handle velocity. That skill combination is not all that common for college middle infielders that project to last later into the draft.
Shuffield is a solid runner with home-to-first times ranging from plus to average. Shuffield’s instincts on defense are above average, and he shows slick actions at shortstop. He’s adept at going back on popups and offers good range up the middle. He has sufficient raw arm strength but may not have the arm utility necessary to stick at shortstop in the pros. I saw Shuffield turn an impressive double play with excellent footwork and a quick transfer at second base, which provided some confidence that he’d fit well at second base long term. As with Blake Rambusch, Shuffield profiles best as a utility player. At 23 years old, the draft ceiling is limited, but he looks like an appealing “senior discount” target on paper. Those players tend to get snatched up in the 7-10 round range.
Dylan Tebrake drew me in last summer during the MLB Draft League. After two years in Creighton’s weekend rotation, Tebrake pitched out of the pen for the Frederick Keys and showed off some extra zip on his fastball and slider. Tebrake (pronounced Tah-Brock) had a solid start as a returning member of the Blue Jay rotation, but he’s gotten stronger over the past couple of months. His fastball and slider have seen meaningful gains in velocity and spin rate. Tebrake’s high spin fastball (2,300-2,400+ RPM) has ticked up to 92-94 MPH and has touched 95 and 96. The pitch is lively and has late arm-side running action. Tebrake’s slider is the money pitch. He racks up most of his whiffs and K’s on the slider, which shows above-average velocity in the 85-89 MPH range. The pitch is tough for hitters to pick up with late and tight spin (2,700-2,900 RPM, 3,000+ max). Tebrake tunnels the fastball and slider effectively. The fastball has late running movement to his arm side, and the slider breaks late in the opposite direction. He has developed a real knack for locating the slider away from righties, targeting that outer edge of the plate. Tebrake flashed both a usable curveball and changeup in the past to complete a four-pitch mix. But he’s been able to rely on the fastball and slider during his recent run of success. He will throw a breaking ball with a more vertical shape to lefties that is also capable of getting whiffs as a chase pitch below the strike zone. Examples of the fastball and both breakers are below:
Tebrake’s last two starts have been particularly spicy. He’s gone the distance in back-to-back starts while allowing just four earned runs and striking out 28. Tebrake set a Creighton record with 15 strikeouts in his last start versus Butler.
Another thing you should know about Dylan Tebrake is he’s kind of a psycho on the mound. And I mean that in the most flattering way possible.
Tebrake’s up-tempo and higher effort mechanics are better suited for the pen. He’ll lose the strike zone, but he has gotten much better at getting back on track and avoiding the big inning. We’ve already seen his stuff tick up in the pen before, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it happened again in the pros. Tebrake is older for the 2022 college class but is an intriguing sleeper pick for the middle rounds (rounds 5+) on day two of the draft.
Zeke Wood, RHP, Texas State
Height/Weight: 6-4 /210
Year/Draft Age: Fourth-Year Junior / 22.04
Wood was someone that caught my attention after back-to-back dominant starts to open the season against Utah Valley and Ohio State. Wood is a well-built righty with good size and a solid upper half. He works from a very high, over-the-top arm slot, creating a tough angle for hitters. Wood lives and dies with the fastball, which shows flat plane when thrown above the belt and sink/run when thrown low and to his arm side.
Wood goes to the fastball often, with usage rates above 70%-80% in many of his outings. The fastball is a high spinner, routinely in the 2,500-2,600 RPM range, with velocity that sits 93-95 MPH and topping out at 96 MPH early before dropping into the 91-93 MPH range during the later innings. Wood’s heater can generate whiffs and weak contact when located effectively. He generates a ton of weak popups and infield fly balls which helps explain why he’s been able to limit hitters to a .165 average. Wood mixes in a couple of secondaries with a slider and changeup. The slider has an inconsistent slurvy shape and is currently more of a change of pace type pitch. The changeup shows more potential and will flash fading action and late horizontal movement. There isn’t a ton of consistency with the changeup, but there’s potential for an above-average pitch with further development and usage.
Wood’s ability to consistently command his fastball is not pristine. The fastball command and velocity have trended downward lately, which could be a sign that he's running out of gas. Wood’s below-average command and limited pitch mix point toward a future in the bullpen. That may not seem overly exciting from a 22+-year-old arm, but we’ve seen plenty of college starters with unique but flawed profiles serve meaningful roles for pro teams. Wood is likely a late day two or day three draft arm with some growth potential despite his age. A bullpen aided velocity/command boost and focusing on developing a dependable secondary could turn Wood into a legitimate relief prospect. Last year, we saw this with a Texas State arm in 16th rounder Zachary Leigh.