About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Marco Luciano, SS - 60 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 60
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 70 | 45 | 60 | 45 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Luciano stands tall with a surprisingly wiry frame, and there’s substantial room to fill out in the upper body. He’s already strong and any strength gains only increase his power projection. He has grown about an inch and put on some weight since last year. He suffered a lower back strain during the summer.
STRENGTHS Luciano can hit the ball out of any part of a ballpark. He posted double-plus exit velocities in 2022, and he generates his raw power thanks to tremendous bat speed, good raw strength, and some natural loft in his swing. He also makes a good amount of contact, which should allow him to reach power during games. He shows a solid eye at the plate, which should only get better as he matures. He doesn’t chase with much frequency, and he has above-average plate coverage skills that allow him to take the ball the other way when pitchers pitch him outside. He has a strong, accurate arm that will help him as he transitions off shortstop. His arm fits at either third base or in right field.
WEAKNESSES Luciano is not a particularly explosive athlete, and that shows in the field and on the base paths. He struggles with getting to balls deep in the hole when occupying shortstop, and his lack of lateral agility hurts him on balls that he has to go get. As a base runner, he isn’t much of a threat to push for an extra base or steal a base.
SUMMARY There may be some prospect fatigue with Luciano, but he’s still a potentially special player. He has the type of power that can make any park look small, and he will hit more than enough to tap into it. He’s progressing towards the big leagues, and he has a legitimate All-Star level ceiling.
EVALUATOR Rhys White
2. Kyle Harrison, LHP - 60 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 55
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 60 | 50 | 45 | High |
| 94-9 mph | 83-85 mph | 84-87 mph |
PHYSICAL Harrison has slightly above-average height for the position with long limbs. He’s clearly added good weight since last season, and his frame looks filled out. It’s an easy delivery with a low three-quarters release, which helps his fastball.
STRENGTHS Harrison has an extremely good arsenal both from a metric and visual standpoint. His fastball consistently reaches the mid-90s from a low release, and he’s improved his ability to hold that velocity deeper into games. The pitch easily projects as plus from the left side. The slider is also a plus offering that has a two-plane break and generates plenty of swings and misses. His changeup flashes above-average when he has a feel for it, although there are consistency issues there. It has some nice fading life at the bottom of the zone. The arsenal is strong enough to keep him in the rotation. His control is ahead of his command.
WEAKNESSES Harrison has command issues, although it has improved a touch from his debut season. He can get whiffs in the zone but struggles to throw good chase pitches in two strike counts. While he eventually gets the strikeout in most cases, he tends to miss the zone by a lot when trying to nibble. The inconsistency of his changeup brings down its grade, but it should still be good enough to play as he moves up the ladder. Any improvements only increase his likelihood of reaching his ceiling.
SUMMARY Harrison racked up a ton of strikeouts as a 21-year-old in Double-A. The arsenal has the potential to carry him to the big leagues, but he still needs to improve his command to reach his lofty ceiling. He has two plus offerings and another that flashes above-average, and the upside here is mid-rotation or better. His stuff is among the best in the minor leagues when he has his command.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
3. Mason Black, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 17 OFP: 45
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 60 | 45 | 45 | High |
| 93-96 mph | 84-86 mph | 82-83 mph |
PHYSICAL Black has a muscular and athletic build with long limbs. The frame is filled out well with a sturdy lower half, and he moves well with his upper half. Black throws from a traditional three-quarters arm slot.
STRENGTHS Black has two variations of his fastball that both get plenty of use. His four-seamer can touch the upper-90s, and his two-seamer reaches about the same. He works with them both as the lead pitch of his arsenal. His slider is the pitch that immediately stands out, though. It’s a big, sweeping slider with late bite, and the pitch projects as plus. It generates plenty of whiffs, as does his fastball, but it’s the former that will be his out pitch. His changeup flashes but is inconsistent. It has the potential to be average if he finds as much feel for it as he does his other offerings. He’s a strike thrower.
WEAKNESSES There can be spells of command issues. His walk numbers stay down enough, but he can lose the zone for short stints. His command showed better than his reports from college read, but there’s still some work to be done. His changeup is the one pitch that still shows some inconsistency. He hasn’t needed it so far off the strength of his two fastballs and slider, but adding another pitch to the mix would only help the cause.
SUMMARY Black potentially has two plus pitches. His fastball has two variations, both of which work, and his slider can be a legitimate out pitch. Those three pitches helped him post big strikeout numbers in the lower levels. There’s risk here, but Black’s ceiling is as good as any of the Giants pitchers not named Kyle Harrison. He has obvious rotation potential, but his two plus pitches also create a high-leverage bullpen option. Much of his future will depend on the changeup and his command.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
4. Luis Matos, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 55 | High |
PHYSICAL Matos is on the shorter side for an outfielder, but he’s done well to fill out his frame. It’s a good baseball body that looks heavier than his listed weight. He’s close to physically maxed and is a good, twitchy athlete.
STRENGTHS Matos is a well-rounded prospect who does just about everything on the baseball field. He has good bat speed, and his swing produces natural loft. He covers the zone well and can get to velocity anywhere. He produced a ton of fly ball contact in 2022, and his raw power should materialize during games as he finds the barrel more often. Matos is an above-average runner who can steal bases, but it shows up more on the defensive side of the ball. He will flex over to right field on occasion, but he predominantly mans center field. His range and instincts will keep up the middle, but he also has a strong enough arm to man right field. He projects to be an above-average defender in center field.
WEAKNESSES Matos was hyper-aggressive against Single-A arms in his full season debut, and he became overly passive in High-A. He needs to iron out his approach to fully maximize his offensive ability, and that will start with improving his swing decisions. He also shows pull tendencies, and he created too much noncompetitive fly ball contact in 2022. Learning when to swing should help with those issues.
SUMMARY Many of the skills Matos showed during his breakout are still present despite the dip in performance. There isn’t anything he’s projected to do poorly, and it’s now just about putting the pieces together. He has impact potential on both sides of the ball, and he has plenty of time to refine his approach and add seasoning. There’s still plenty to like here, but the perceived risk is higher than originally thought.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
5. Casey Schmitt, 3B - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 14 OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 50 | 60 | 60 | 40 | High |
PHYSICAL Schmitt is tall and solidly built. He has strong quads and present strength in his upper half. He moves well at third base and has the traditional frame expected of the position.
STRENGTHS Schmitt has good bat speed and a swing that generates a lot of line drive and fly ball contact due to its bat path. He has average or better bat-to-ball skills on pitches in the zone. He uses the whole field, and his over-the-fence power started playing more up the middle in 2022. He has a quality approach that is borderline passive, but he’s able to see a lot of pitches to hit. This has allowed him to reach more of his raw power because he’s able to find something to drive. Schmitt is a strong defender at third base, and he’s also played some shortstop. He has good range in all directions and is unafraid to charge the ball. He tracks fly balls well and keeps ground balls in front of him with strong glovework. His arm is plus, and he’s capable of getting the ball out quickly from multiple arm angles. He has a good internal clock and regularly beats the runner on slow dribblers and balls deep in the hole.
WEAKNESSES Schmitt’s passivity at the plate can get him behind in the count. He also shows a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone, and those two issues led to an increased strikeout rate in 2022. He’s dealt with some issues with creating quality contact in the past, but he has made strides year-over-year. His exit velocities were just average in 2022, and there are some questions about his ability to reach his home run power. Schmitt is not particularly quick, and he probably doesn’t have the traditional range of a shortstop, despite his ability to cover the position.
SUMMARY Schmitt posted a strong campaign in 2022, and he’s now knocking on the door to San Francisco. He’s a plus defender at third base and, although there’s still some work to do in terms of shoring up his approach, he projects as a future regular at the hot corner.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
6. Grant McCray, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 13 OFP: 45
7. Reggie Crawford, LHP/1B - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 45
8. Carson Seymour, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 11 OFP: 45
9. Landen Roupp, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
10. Averson Arteaga, SS - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 9 OFP: 45