About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Jackson Merrill, SS - 60 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 6 OFP: 50
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 55 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Merrill has an athletic and lanky frame with room to grow into some more strength. He’s an above-average but non-exceptional athlete on both sides of the ball.
STRENGTHS Merril is one of the best contact hitters in the sport. He makes contact over 90% of the time in the zone, and those rates are consistent against varying speeds and pitch types. He’s not just making empty contact either but instead consistently high quality contact. He regularly hits chip shot breaking balls for bloop hits, and he can drive the fastball with authority. He should be a consistent high BABIP hitter, as well. Merrill makes good swing decisions and won’t get himself out. The raw power is also a plus. He hits the ball hard with plus exit velocities that will only get better with physical progression. He also hits the ball equally hard to every field. Merrill possesses the tools necessary to stick at shortstop. His arm is above-average.
WEAKNESSES Merrill struggles to put the ball in the air, and it’s a seemingly intrinsic flaw in the profile. He has a very flat attack angle, and the barrel enters the zone late, so he is always on top of the fastball. He hits the steeper pitches in the air, namely breaking balls, but he doesn’t stay on plane with them long enough to hit them with authority. The lack of elevation will cause the power to play down in games. The power should still play about average due to the consistency of his contact and the authority he is capable of unleashing.
SUMMARY Merrill was one of the best players in the minor leagues when he was on the field in 2022. However, a wrist injury limited him to just 66 games. He has hit every pitcher he has faced, but he’s still only in Low-A, so there is risk in a hit-driven profile. However, the contact/power combination is arguably unmatched in the minors. He also can also play a solid shortstop. There is very lofty upside in the profile, even if it's more of a leadoff hitter than middle of the order bat.
EVALUATOR Tieran Alexander
2. Dylan Lesko, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: HS
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 13
| Fastball | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 70 | 50 | Extreme |
| 91-95 mph | 75-77 mph | 77-83 mph |
PHYSICAL Lesko has a prototypical lean frame with projection. His mechanics are smooth with a quick, clean arm. He was a big offensive performer for his high school team, which highlights his plus athleticism.
STRENGTHS Lesko lives in the low-to-mid-90s with a fastball that has above-average spin rates and possesses the shape to get whiffs at the top of the zone. The carry of the pitch is also exemplified with the takes he can get at the bottom of the zone. When he is able to locate, hitters can do next to nothing with it. His changeup is a double-plus pitch that flashes elite because of its incredible depth and velocity separation off his fastball with the ability to sell his arm speed. It’s a difference-making pitch that is the bedrock of his ace-level upside. The curveball is thrown sparingly in the mid-70s with plus spin and 11/5 shape. The pitch started getting whiffs in his final start at the National High School Invitational.
WEAKNESSES There is some roughness around the edges with his command and particularly the fastball. It feels like he tries to make the perfect pitch after any miss, and he can get into a bad rhythm of overthrowing until he’s able to reset himself. While the fastball has good shape, it isn’t immune to misses over the middle. Concerns about his elbow health were postulated with the limited amount of curveballs he threw in February and March 2022, and those were confirmed with subsequent elbow soreness and the decision to undergo Tommy John surgery.
SUMMARY Even though he will miss most of 2023, Lesko still possesses a near unparalleled combination of stuff, mechanics, and performance amongst the preps in his class. This is a profile with top-of-the-rotation upside. The Padres are looking towards the summer of 2023 as a target to get him back on the mound in competitive environments.
EVALUATOR Will Hoefer
3. Samuel Zavala, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 18 Highest Level: CPX
2022 Pre-season Rank: 12 OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 50 | High |
PHYSICAL Zavala has slightly above-average height for the position and a solid build. There’s emerging thickness in his lower half, and he has present upper body strength. There’s some remaining projection on his frame in the top half, although he already hits the ball hard. He broke his hamate bone during the Single-A playoffs.
STRENGTHS Zavala has an innate feel for the strike zone and shows a strong willingness to lay off pitches. He matches that approach with quality bat-to-ball skills and growing power. He posted plus exit velocities in 2022, and his pull-side raw power teeters on above-average. He’s still growing into his body, but there’s reason to believe his future in-game power can approach average output, despite a more contact-oriented approach. Zavala split his time between right and centerfield while in Single-A, and he’s capable of making difficult plays in both spots. He takes quality routes and is willing to lay out to make a play. His arm is above-average and will fit anywhere.
WEAKNESSES Zavala’s approach borders on passive, and that can lead to him getting behind in the count more often than he should. This is an improvement over his past aggressiveness, but he’ll need to find a balance between the two. His barrel control is also a work in progress, and his contact rates aren’t quite as impressive as a result. He still has an opportunity to get the ball in the air with more frequency, and that will allow his power to play more than it already has. There’s a question about how the hamate surgery will impact his development and power output.
SUMMARY Zavala was as impressive as any prospect in the Arizona Complex League, and he largely maintained that offensive output upon reaching the California League. There’s still some approach-driven adjustments that will need to be made, but he’s among the better prospects in the organization, and he could be primed for a further breakout if he’s healthy in 2023.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
4. Robby Snelling, LHP - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: HS
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 58
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 55 | 40 | 55 | High |
| 90-94 mph | 78-81 mph | 84-87 mph |
PHYSICAL Snelling possesses a physical frame with a strong lower half and broad shoulders with room to project. His mechanics feature a high leg kick which leads him into a long extension and good lower half drive. There’s some deception, especially against left handed batters.
STRENGTHS Snelling’s fastball for the most part sits low-90s but has some late life and run to it. He sits 90-94 MPH currently, and it’s not unreasonable to expect him to find another tick or two in the near future. He has advanced feel for the breaking ball at a young age and throws it in the zone plenty but can also use it as a chase pitch when needed. He commands the slider more consistently than the fastball and can land it in the zone more consistently, but he’s a strike thrower. As a high school arm he never really had to use the changeup, and he will need to develop the pitch a lot more if he wants to stick in the rotation.
WEAKNESSES He falls off the mound to the third base side too hard sometimes causing him to open up and lose command, especially to his arm side. This causes breaking balls to hang and fastballs to miss. He needs more from his changeup, because he really needs a third pitch to turn over a lineup. All of the issues here are typical for prep arms and nothing to be overly concerned with quite yet.
SUMMARY Snelling had a strong commitment to Arizona State but later switched to LSU to follow Coach Johnson. He dropped a bit in the draft due to this perceived strong commitment, so credit to the Padres for making it above slot at $3 million. He already has great feel for two pitches and, if the changeup or another third pitch comes along, that will solidify his rotation future.
EVALUATOR Cameron Emamian
5. Adam Mazur, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 54
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 50 | Moderate |
| 92-96 mph | 77-81 mph | 82-86 mph | 83-87 mph |
PHYSICAL Mazur possesses a long, wiry frame with great athleticism on the mound. There’s a good amount of projection remaining, and his shoulders are more sloped than broad. It’s an easy delivery, and his longer arm stroke leads to a high three-quarters arm slot. He repeats the delivery well with a loose, quick arm.
STRENGTHS Mazur has a complete four-pitch arsenal, led off by two different fastballs. The four-seam features a good amount of vertical break and has been up to 99 MPH in the past, primarily sitting in the 92-96 MPH range last spring. The two-seam variant has been more in the low-90s with plenty of run away from lefties. The slider is his best secondary, a plus offering with some late sweep that he commands well away from righties in the mid-80s. The curveball is thrown hard, getting into the low-80s at times, with sharp action and good depth. The pitch could become an above-average weapon. The changeup could also be an above-average offering in the future. It’s a low-spin offering with good tumbling action away from lefties. He has average control and command of his full arsenal.
WEAKNESSES There was some concern with Mazur’s arm strength towards the end of the year. Over the last two outings he had for Iowa, his velocity seemingly disappeared and was sitting 88-91 MPH. Mazur also tends to slow his arm when throwing the changeup, which will need to be fixed moving forward.
SUMMARY Mazur provides a solid developmental base for the Padres to work with in 2023. With the advanced nature of his off-speed arsenal and command, he profiles as a back-end starter and there could be more to come with further development of the curveball/changeup combination and added weight and strength. He’ll make his professional debut in 2023.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
6. Eguy Rosario, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 22 OFP: 40
7. Victor Lizarraga, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 21 OFP: 40
8. Henry Williams, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 103
9. Jay Groome, LHP - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 5 (BOS) OFP: 50
10. Rosman Verdugo, SS - 40 OFP
Age: 18 Highest Level: CPX
2022 Pre-season Rank: N/A