The Pirates are clearly in the middle of their rebuild. They have been drafting high over the past few years and trading any major league piece they sign for some sort of return. This has resulted in a farm system brimming with talented prospects. The gem of the rebuild in Pittsburgh is their most recent 1.1 pick, Paul Skenes. Skenes faces all the typical risks that come with being a pitcher, but he stands out as one of the top pitching prospects in the game due to his explosive fastball and his plus-plus slider. The Pirates have bolstered their system with intriguing pitchers, such as Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Jared Jones, among a few others. The Pirates did have a few hitters graduate from the list this past season, so it is not a strong crop of hitting prospects outside of the talented Termarr Johnson. The Pirates draft well, as one would expect with all these high picks, but they have not been successful in signing players in the IFA market. However, this has not hurt the organization so far. It's an interesting strategy to not fully optimize that pipeline for talent. The Pirates are a year or so away from contending for the NL Central crown, but their farm system is strong. With another high pick, we could expect to see a new wave of talented players joining the Pittsburgh Pirates. Things are looking up in Pittsburgh. The only question is, if they do realize all this potential, how long will a window be open with an ownership group that is steadfast in not spending on their big league squad.
About Our Top 30 Lists
Prospects Live, led by its evaluating team, is proud to begin rolling out its annual offseason system reports. The team has meticulously worked on every detail in this list and all future teams, sparing no effort as we combine industry feedback, our live looks, film, and available data to compile each org. We believe this effort has enabled us to present you, the reader, with our best possible list.
We have constructed this list using the Overall Future Potential (OFP) scale. There is no perfect equation for ranking prospects or assigning value to them, but we believe this method is the best possible approach. Every prospect on this list has been graded based on the tried and true 20-80 scouting scale. An 80 is the highest tool and OFP grade on the scale, reserved for MVP-caliber players or tools. Conversely, a 20 is reserved for non-prospects (NPs). A 50 OFP falls in the middle, indicating our evaluators deem this player a future average major league player. Below the 50 OFP tier are the 45s and 40s, comprising a large majority of players on each list. These are specific-role players, such as platoon hitters, utility players, or low-leverage relievers. Above the 50 OFP tier are the 55s and 60s. A 55 represents a future above-average player, and a 60 OFP designation is reserved for future All-Star caliber players.
In addition to the tool grades and OFP, we will also include a 'Risk' associated with each prospect. We use this to better communicate to you, the reader, whether a grade is more aggressive or conservative in nature. The evaluation team has worked painstakingly to apply both the grades and risk components to better illustrate how each individual prospect stacks up in their respective system and in the baseball ecosystem.
This year, we decided to accompany the scouting reports with dynasty commentary on each, as well as quick reference to the player's Top 500 fantasy prospect rank (top 1000 dynasty rank coming soon), PLIVE+ metrics and Jordan Rosenblum's peak projections. The PLIVE+ rank noted is the rank among hitters, starters or relievers.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank and First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Paul Skenes - 60 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2023MLB Draft Rank: 2
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 12
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 70 | 60 | 55 | High |
Report Formerly a two-way player at Air Force, Skenes transferred to LSU and became a completely different pitcher. Skenes added plenty of bulk to his frame, and his velocity went from 92-95 mph to an absurd 96-100 mph, topping out at 102 mph. As a result, Skenes dominated the SEC and went on to be nominated for the Golden Spikes Award, striking out 209 batters along the way. While his fastball shape isn’t optimal, it possesses devilish sinking action with plenty of heavy run, commanding it on the edges at will. He holds his velocity very well throughout starts and hides the ball very well behind his body, making it tough on batters to pick it up out of the hand. He had a 30% whiff rate on the pitch as a result. He can manipulate the shape of his slider, which sits in the upper-80s, going from a shorter gyro slider to a sweeping beast, getting over 15 inches of sweep at times. His change-up has plus potential, fading hard against lefties in the low-90s, though he didn’t use it much given the FB/SL combination. This is one of the best prospect arms in recent memory, and it’s reasonable to expect Skenes to see the majors at some point in 2024. - Tyler Jennings
Fantasy Outlook Thanks to a combination of elite stuff and a landscape of top pitching prospects dealing with injury, Skenes debuted as our top fantasy pitching prospect in July 2023 and remained there to close out the year where he was just outside the top 10 overall. A pitching prospect with his arsenal and workhorse body is rare. His average four-seam velocity (97.8 mph) would have clocked second fastest, just behind Sandy Alcantara (though we recognize he likely aired it out in his single-inning spurts). He’s extra enticing to contending teams who’ll likely get a plug-and-play pitcher with strong upside in early 2024. The blurb above is as glowing as you could want. We think it’s okay to draft him as soon as third overall in FYPDs. - Eddy Almaguer
2. Termarr Johnson, 2B - 55 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A+
2023 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 55
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 32
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | High |
Report Widely regarded as one of the best hitters in the 2022 draft class, Termarr displayed less contact than many would have expected. While exhibiting a higher rate of swings and misses within the strike zone than what is typically expected from someone who is widely thought of to have a good hit tool. He does whiff in the strike zone a bit more than you would want, and that stems from his aggressiveness on pitches within the zone. This will get cleaned up as Termarr faces more pitching and refines his approach. He has an advanced understanding of the strike zone, along with the ability to pick up spin. He consistently achieves impressive exit velocities (EVs), reaching a maximum of 112 mph during the season with a 95th percentile EV of 107 mph. He has shown an ability to attack all parts of the field and can manipulate the barrel through the zone to attack different pitches. While most of his value is tied up in the bat, he will also be a solid defender at second base. He makes all the routine plays, and his arm strength enables him to make every throw you would expect from a second baseman. He projects as a middle-of-the-order hitter who will also be solid in an up-the-middle position. - Rhys White
Fantasy Outlook Termarr’s season line belies how he turned it around after an excruciating first month of 2023. Beginning June 1, he had a .896 OPS with a BB/K of exactly 1. Johnson cemented himself as a bonafide OBP stud, finishing with a 23 BB%, a mark he rocked in both Single-A and High-A, impressive for a 19-year-old. In OBP/OPS leagues, he’s an arrows up guy. However, his .244 AVG was a bit surprising, considering that the first thing he’s known for is his hit tool. The big thing to watch for heading into 2024 is understanding if he’s someone who has more of an average hit tool with a great walk rate or if he continues to adapt and improves upon it to make good on the hopes of a .280/.375/.450 infielder with 25 HR. For now, we have him just outside our top 25 and are bullish on his future. - Eddy Almaguer
3. Bubba Chandler, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 6 OFP: 50
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 207
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 50 | 55 | 45 | High |
Report The Pirates stopped the two-way experiment with Chandler and just let him go out and pitch, which was a decision that needed to be made, and showed strides in certain areas especially. The righty possesses great athleticism, a good lower half on the mound, and good arm speed. He figured out how to maximize his already mid to upper 90s fastball, which has great life, by consistently throwing it at the top of the zone and getting a lot of swings and misses and the occasional weak popup. He backs up the fastball with a tight spinning slider that has short horizontal break and a bit of depth that is effective when thrown glove side and down, but has issues being left arm side and elevated, which makes it an average pitch overall. Chandler has shown good feel for a changeup that has late arm side fade and is a real weapon against LHH; it gets a lot of off-balance swings and weak rollovers. When Chandler is working well, he gets ahead early and uses the offspeed stuff to set up the elevated fastball for swing and miss. He is a big-time competitor who can sometimes get easily frustrated when he loses command and causes himself to rush and have snowball effects; when the command slips, it slips all at once. His stride is long and sometimes causes him to get behind the ball and not on top, which causes him to leave all of his pitches up in the zone, and he can be vulnerable to the long ball. He also mostly works in two quadrants against hitters: elevated or away, and advanced hitters will get comfortable not being challenged inside. Could still be a starter or a late-inning reliever. - Cameron Emamian
Fantasy Outlook Chandler finished just outside our top 200 to close out 2023, as there’s SP3 upside on the back of his high-velo fastball. The reliever risk is certainly real, but he closed out the year on a high with a 2.33 ERA (4.26 FIP) and a solid 27 K% in the last two months of the year. He’ll be 21 for almost all of 2024 and should open in Double-A, so any positive performance will go a long way to continue increasing his stock. There’s also something to be said about someone who ditched the two-way lifestyle and is recently only focusing on pitching, which portends to more development. - Eddy Almaguer
4. Thomas Harrington, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A+
2023 Pre-season Rank: 8 OFP: 50
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 275
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 45 | 60 | 55 | 60 | Mod |
Report Harrington made his much anticipated professional debut in 2023 and was aggressively placed in Low-A, skipping the complex and ending the season in High-A. Harrington is a projectable college arm who was a two-way guy in high school and only two full seasons as a starting pitcher under his belt at Campbell. His delivery is low effort and repeatable, and the only issue we’ve seen is when he reaches back for more the fastball can run away arm side on him a bit. He attacks hitters from a three-quarters arm slot, and there’s room to add solid mass to the frame. He has an excellent feel for pitching, and his command is plus. He’s an east-west type of arm that relies on movement and command. He primarily throws a sinker but will also use a four-seamer. Both variations of the fastball sit 92-93, and he’s been as high as 97. His slider is a plus pitch with plus sweep in the low-to-mid 80s and about 2600 RPMs. He has an above average changeup that he uses against righties and lefties with a sharp diving action. He also mixes in a curveball as a change of pace, strike-stealing offering that comes in in the high-70s. Harrington is the real deal and has number 2 starter-type upside, as there’s a chance he has two plus secondaries with plus command. - Matt Thompson
Fantasy Outlook Harrington had a fantastic debut season, posting a 26 K% and 7 BB% while splitting his time between Low-A and High-A. His stuff is very good; his slider (34%) and changeup (32%) generate a lot of whiffs. When combined with his excellent command, he has the makings of a solid major-league pitcher. He is currently giving up more fly balls than ground balls, which could lead to some home runs, but there is lots of time to improve his ground ball rate. There is so much to like about Harrington’s skill set, he is someone to target in all dynasty formats, but he might move quickly, so your window to acquiring him is closing quickly. - Greg Hoogkamp
5. Jared Jones, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AAA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 16 OFP: 45
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 108
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 50 | 55 | 40 | 40 | High |
Report Jared Jones came out of the draft in 2020 as an extremely athletic, two-sport guy who was raw on the mound. He’s now on the verge of the big leagues, and it’s hard not to like some of the stuff he brings. He has a fastball with some real heat and two-seam movement on it, and he loves using that pitch. He’ll challenge hitters, take it high in the zone, and use it in all counts. The confidence he has in that pitch is legit, and it’s a plus offering. The slider is impressive, too, as it has a nice tight break on it, and it’s hard enough to be a different breaking ball than his curve. He’s become mostly fastball/slider, but he mixes in another breaking ball that he gets some good spin on and a changeup that still needs a good amount of work. The big concern with Jones is whether or not he can stick in the rotation. He’s a smaller guy, and that has its issues, but the command is the real problem. Jones has hovered around a 9-10% walk rate at just about every level he’s been at, and it’s hard to imagine that changing at this point. The Pirates would be wise to give him a shot in the rotation, but the most likely outcome is probably a reliever and a good one at that. - Grant Carver
Fantasy Outlook Jones really stepped forward as a pitcher in 2023 and is knocking at the door of a major league debut. He leans on his fastball and slider to get most hitters out, but he can generate whiffs with all four of his offerings. This tells you how good Jones’ stuff is because he doesn’t throw any of these pitches for strikes more than 50% of the time. The best hitters will wait him out, and this is when he issues walks, but this aspect of his game improved at the tail end of the season. As he gains confidence in his stuff, the hope is that he will attack the strike zone more and make hitters earn their way on base. As a fantasy pitcher, you can expect a lot of strikeouts with a few walks sprinkled in and more soft contact than hard-hit balls. Jones should debut in the summer of 2024 and be a fantasy contributor. - Greg Hoogkamp
6. Anthony Solometo, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 7 OFP: 50
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 241
7. Michael Burrows, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 10 OFP: 45
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 274
8. Mitch Jebb, 2B/SS - 50 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A
2023 MLB Draft Rank: 56
Dynasty Prospect Rank: >500
9. Jesus Castillo, 2B/SS - 45 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2023 Pre-season Rank: “Sleeper”
Dynasty Prospect Rank: >500
10. Shalin Polanco, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2023 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
Dynasty Prospect Rank: >500