About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Endy Rodriguez, C/OF - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 6 OFP: 50
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 45 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Rodriguez has a lean, athletic frame with some room for additional strength. He stands with a simple and balanced stance on both sides of the plate, employing a small load and a minor toe tap. He lets the ball travel, allowing his quick hands to do the work. His swing is slightly more fluid from the left side, but it’s extremely smooth and efficient from both sides.
STRENGTHS Rodriguez’s offensive profile is headlined by elite plate discipline, with a patient approach and an incredible feel for the zone. Still, he is unafraid to jump on the first pitch if it’s in his wheelhouse. He has plus contact skills from both sides of the plate and consistently barrels up pitches. His bat-to-ball prowess began to translate into in-game power upon returning to play in 2021, as he was lifting the ball with authority to all parts of the park. He has fringe-average speed, but moves well on the bases and in the outfield thanks to his fluid athleticism and long strides. He has proven to be agile behind the plate, with a quick recovery on balls that skip away from him.
WEAKNESSES An unrefined catcher, Rodriguez’s blocking skills leave something to be desired. He has solid arm strength that plays better in the outfield than behind the dish given his tendency to lose accuracy when rushing throws on stolen base attempts. He’s also spent some time at second base, but his hands aren’t quite up to par for that position.
SUMMARY Rodriguez has hit at every level, and there’s nothing to indicate that he won’t continue to do so once he reaches the big leagues. Defensively, however, there are some questions that remain. There’s a decent chance he moves to left field full-time given his profile and the presence of other top prospects in the system, but he isn’t likely to ever be a plus defender. Still, he is capable at several positions, and that versatility adds value. He’s a bat-first prospect who should be a part of Pittsburgh’s lineup in some capacity later in 2023.
EVALUATOR Harris Yudin
2. Termarr Johnson, 2B - 55 OFP
Age: 18 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 7
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | High |
PHYSICAL Johnson has a smaller frame that’s mature and filled out for his age. He’s high-waisted with sloped shoulders, and his composition suggests additional weight will be added but, given his desire to stick at shortstop, it’s a big question as to what he’ll look like in five years. He’s a good athlete with a high level of present physicality.
STRENGTHS Johnson was one of the most accomplished high school hitters in the summer showcase era prior to getting drafted. He possesses advanced pitch recognition and sees the ball differently than just about anyone else his age. He has whippy bat speed and strong torque in his swing path that helps him find the barrel at a high rate. His game power plays at, and potentially above, his above-average raw power due to how often he’s able to impact the ball out in front and generate lofted pull-side contact. At present, Johnson possesses the twitch and range to make plays at shortstop and has good hands and actions. He doesn’t have the biggest arm, but his throwing mechanics and arm utility are very good. He’s engaged in the game at all times and will often talk to his teammates on the field about what to do in the current situation.
WEAKNESSES Johnson struggled during his minor league debut, but it was a small sample on the heels of a long draft year. His ability to get the bat to anything near the zone leads to some temptation to chase. Defensively, there’s not really a tool that sticks out as being able to withstand any loss of explosiveness if he adds weight in pro ball. Pittsburgh has seemingly made the decision to run him out at second base for the foreseeable future, which was to be expected, although he did draw a handful of starts at shortstop after signing.
SUMMARY Johnson possessed the strongest hit tool amongst draft eligible preps, and he also has the ability to generate a lot of pull-side power. The top five pick should be considered the future double play partner with Oneil Cruz in Pittsburgh, as well as a middle of the order staple capable of depositing balls in the Allegheny River.
EVALUATOR Will Hoefer
3. Henry Davis, C - 55 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 60 | 40 | 70 | 40 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Davis has a large, muscular frame and strength is the calling card of his offensive game. He possesses strong shoulders and forearms and thighs that look like tree trunks. He’s a plus athlete and still able to maintain more than enough agility. He controls his body extremely well.
STRENGTHS There are two extremely loud and attention grabbing tools here with his arm strength and power. His arm strength is double-plus and his throws down to the bases have tremendous carry. His bulldog-esque build generates immense raw power due to his strength. He also has a unique stance that allows him to get deep into a crouch, and he’s then able to produce natural loft because of his ability to get underneath the baseball. He makes plenty of loud contact and has shown the ability to get the barrel on anything due to his low crouch. He will punish mistakes, but he’s a good enough hitter to crush advanced pitching. He doesn't chase and makes contact at an above-average clip.
WEAKNESSES His receiving skills are not on the same level as his arm, and he lacks the quickness necessary to receive pitches and get into position to block balls in the dirt. He’s not a strong pitch framer, especially on pitches low in the zone, and he might be the type of defensive catcher that benefits the most from an automated strike zone should one get implemented in the future. If he doesn’t stick behind the plate, the only other real option is first base, which would almost waste his double-plus arm.
SUMMARY Davis has a bit more question marks than most players who get selected first overall, but it’s also easy to see what Pittsburgh saw when making the pick. Davis’ bat will do damage when he’s in the lineup, but his lack of lateral quickness could push him to first base, and there’s no guarantee he becomes an impact player if that move happens.
EVALUATOR Matt Thompson
4. Quinn Priester, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 5 OFP: 50
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 50 | High |
| 91-96 mph | 76-80 mph | 85-90 mph | 84-90 mph |
PHYSICAL Priester has an ideal frame that’s long and lanky with slight projection remaining. He’s a good athlete who has a quick arm with little to no effort on the mound. Priester throws with a high three-quarters arm slot and pitches well downhill. He did miss the first two months of last year due to an oblique injury.
STRENGTHS Priester deploys two different fastballs, a four-seamer in the mid-90s that he’ll throw in the top of the zone and a sinker in the 91-95 MPH range that bores in on righties. He’ll primarily sit in the 91-95 MPH range deep into starts, and he’ll reach back for 96-97 MPH. The curveball is an absolute hammer, sitting in the high-70s with high spin rates and solid depth. It’s an easy plus offering and Priester has very good command of the pitch. The slider was introduced last year and is an average offering with some sweep in the mid-to-high-80s, acting like a cutter around the 88-90 MPH range. The changeup also took a good step forward last year, as there’s more fading life to the pitch and he’s thrown it with more conviction in the mid-to-high-80s. He’s always peppered the zone with strikes, and his athleticism certainly hints to more improvement down the line.
WEAKNESSES The four-seam fastball’s shape is suboptimal at this time, as it lacks sufficient vertical movement to induce a large amount of swing-and-miss at the top of the zone. The fastball command can be spotty at times, as well, especially on the inner half to right-handed hitters. The curveball can also be periodically recognized out of his hand. Working on his four-seam shape should become a priority.
SUMMARY Priester has positioned himself as a mid-rotation starter thanks to his excellent curveball and improved changeup feel. His stuff may never miss a ton of bats, but the strike-throwing that Priester possesses helps save him. He got a taste of Triple-A at the end of 2022 and could very well return there in 2023.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
5. Nick Gonzales, 2B - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 45 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Gonzales possesses a muscular and compact frame that’s maxed out with good weight. He’s dealt with injuries throughout his professional career that have knocked him out for long stretches. He missed over a month in 2021 due to a fractured finger and another six weeks in 2022 due to a heel injury.
STRENGTHS Gonzales’ signature on offense is his short, compact stroke. There’s plus bat speed here and it allows him to catch up to any fastball. It’s a natural inside-out swing and, because of that, he has sneaky power to right center field. He generates some natural loft, especially to right center, but that’s not really his game. He’s looking to spray line drives everywhere. He doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone and will take his walks. Gonzales has above-average hands for second base and can play third base or shortstop in a pinch. His arm is good enough for the infield, and he can make any throw required.
WEAKNESSES Gonzales' natural inside-out swing has led to an unusually high whiff rate inside the zone, which is the main driver of his 28% strikeout rate. He gets tied up on pitches on the inner half, and that was especially evident during the Arizona Fall League. He also whiffed on a few breaking balls in the zone. The power is limited to 18-20 home runs per season, but the raw power might be two full grades higher than that. His hands are solid on the infield, but his footwork isn't great and he takes questionable routes to ground balls.
SUMMARY Gonzales' collegiate power output was inflated by his home ballpark at New Mexico State, and that has potentially distorted a lot of people’s views on what type of player he will become. It’s a hit-over-power profile that is a near lock to carve out a decade-long big league career as a starter or utility option. The hit tool could easily be plus, but there are too many whiffs in the zone, and he’s simply not there yet. He has the type of skills to easily blow away his perceived offensive ceiling.
EVALUATOR Matt Thompson
6. Bubba Chandler, RHP/DH - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 7 OFP: 50
7. Anthony Solometo, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 16 OFP: 45
8. Thomas Harrington, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 35
9. Liover Peguero, SS - 45 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 11 OFP: 45
10. Michael Burrows, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 9 OFP: 50