Houston’s farm system is headlined by Hunter Brown, who saw a last season promotion with the Astros and worked 20.1 innings across two starts and five relief appearances. The 24-year-old more than held his own and looks poised to impact the big-league squad in 2023. And he’s far from the only intriguing prospect in the organization. The system is deep in outfield and pitching prospects, ranging from recent draft picks like Drew Gilbert to the more unheralded international signings that appear near the end of the list.
About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Hunter Brown, RHP - 60 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-Season OFP: 50
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 70 | 70 | 40 | 45 | High |
| 94-98 mph | 80-84 mph | 90-94 mph | 87-90 mph |
PHYSICAL Fairly standard build with strength throughout. Well-proportioned frame with little room to grow. Shows great shoulder mobility that enables him to run incredibly high velocities on all of his pitches.
STRENGTHS Brown has plus velocity from the right side and touches 99 MPH. He throws two plus-plus breaking balls. The curveball sits in the low-mid 80s with elite vertical depth and very little horizontal movement. His low-90s slider has a two-plane shape comparable to Jacob deGrom. The slider is probably more effective because he has above-average command with it. The curve and slider are both elite chase pitches off a glove side fastball that Brown neglects right now. High chase rates would cut his walk rate and let him miss more bats, too. Both breakers show the ability to tunnel with the fastball and can carry an arsenal on their own.
WEAKNESSES Brown’s biggest weakness is a tendency to leave the curve up and out of the strike zone. He misses up with the pitch more often than any major leaguer does with a curve. He struggles to consistently get on top of the pitch, and it can play below its plus-plus grade as a result. His fastball plays down from its natural velocity based on its generic shape. The changeup is rarely zoned. It has good depth but lags behind his breaking balls.
SUMMARY Brown is tracking as a potential front-of-the-rotation starter. He still has to make some adjustments in the deployment of his stuff, but the upside is as high as anyone. He has battled walks to date, and that might create relief risk, although he should still prove effective even with subpar command. Brown has the stuff to fake it until he makes it. The raw stuff is nearly unmatchable in all of baseball, and he has enough command to put it together.
EVALUATOR Tieran Alexander
2. Drew Gilbert, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 15
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 50 | 50 | 60 | 55 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Quick twitch athlete with limitless energy on the field. Present strength throughout a compact frame with a bit of remaining physical projection. Epitomizes the word “gamer” with top of the scale competitiveness and energy that has the ability to change a game.
STRENGTHS Pairs elite plate recognition with as much double-plus bat speed as anyone in the 2022 class. Gilbert flashes huge raw power, posting multiple batted ball events north of 110+ MPH while in college. Present feel for the barrel against velocity and spin alike and shows ability to do damage to all quadrants of the zone. Not elite speed, but an above-average runner who is very opportunistic. He can reach top speed quickly with a short stride that covers ground with ease. Arm is an easy plus tool that, when paired with the run tool, could give Gilbert a strong profile long term in centerfield.
WEAKNESSES While the aggressive nature of Gilbert’s style of play leads to a ton of success, it also exposes certain weaknesses. Gilbert can be swing-happy early in counts hunting home runs and get himself behind the count during stretches. That could be the only thing holding a true plus hit tool back. Shows a willingness to put his body on the line in the outfield which has led to some slight injuries, including a season-ending elbow injury after being drafted. Honing his aggression will be key to his development.
SUMMARY Houston possibly got a steal with Gilbert falling to them in the backend of the first round of the 2022 draft. There’s real potential here for a spark-plug centerfielder who’s going to be a high-OBP guy with a chance for 20 home runs annually. Add in the tremendous track record that the Astros have with recently developing bats, and Gilbert seems to have fallen into a perfect scenario.
EVALUATOR Ian Smith
3. Yainer Diaz, C - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season OFP: 40
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 45 | 55 | 55 | 60 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Diaz has average height and a stocky frame with thick quads and a big butt. He’s physically maxed, but he moves well all things considered. Shows natural catcher actions.
STRENGTHS Diaz has an innate ability to put the bat on the ball, and he’s hit for a high average at every stop in his minor league career. Has a level swing that is capable of getting the ball in the air. He has average-to-above-average raw power and consistently got to it in 2022. Gap-to-gap hitter with natural strength, and there’s reason to believe his in-game power will play around average once he settles into a big league role. He has a strong arm that fits behind the plate, and he also spent some time at first base in 2022.
WEAKNESSES Diaz has a moderately aggressive approach that may cap his offensive output. He’s a frequent swinger on pitches in and out of the zone, and he simply does not walk enough. Although he has positive bat-to-ball skills and doesn’t strike out often, he too frequently creates poor contact, often resulting in groundouts. He’s a solid receiver, but he’ll need to improve his lateral movement and blocking to stick behind the plate. He’s a below-average runner.
SUMMARY Diaz has some idea behind the plate and will continue to take reps there, but there’s at least a solid chance he moves off the position. The offensive threshold for 1B or DH is incredibly high and, while he can hit his way onto base at a solid clip, there’s a fear his approach will suppress his potential. He probably projects best as a bench piece who can back up both catcher and first base, but there’s some additional upside if he can take a step forward with his defense and/or approach. We do know that the team believes in him behind the plate and he will be given every opportunity to stick there.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
4. Pedro Leon, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 45 | 50 | 70 | 60 | High |
PHYSICAL Leon is short with a strong, compact frame. He has thick, strong quads, and his body is physically maxed. He’s a good athlete that is capable of playing all over the field.
STRENGTHS Leon has plus bat speed and a swing that gets the ball in the air. He shows plus raw power, particularly to the pull-side, and he’s beginning to use the whole field. He shows a feel for the strike zone and is capable of laying off on balls out of the zone. He could be a high-OBP candidate if he cuts down on the swing-and-miss and gets more balls into play. Leon has experience all over the diamond, but he spent more time at second base and in the outfield in 2022. He’s a rangy outfielder in large part to his plus foot speed, and he’s more of a natural out there than he is on the dirt. Leon has a strong, plus-plus arm that plays anywhere on the field.
WEAKNESSES Leon’s biggest issue is his inability to consistently get the bat on the ball, and it’s that concern that really hampers his offensive projection. There’s a lot of swing-and-miss on pitches in the zone, and it’s due to an aggressive, power-first approach. His hit tool really only projects as below-average. He’s 24 years old, and it’s a big ask this late into his development, but many of his issues are approach-driven, and there’s hope he can continue to refine it.
SUMMARY Leon is one of the toolsier prospects in the Astros system, but his questionable hit tool suppresses his overall ceiling. He looks like a future average or better regular when he’s making consistent contact, but it’s pretty infrequent at the moment. He has experience all over the field and perhaps projects best as some kind of utility player.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
5. Jacob Melton, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 152
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | High |
PHYSICAL Jacob Melton has a great physical presence. Noticeable strength throughout his frame with projection for another 5-15 pounds of muscle. His shoulders are broad and full, reaching down through a built torso and flexible hips. A long and lean athlete with a quick first step, Melton glides in all of his movements and exudes quiet confidence.
STRENGTHS Melton has a natural ability to barrel up the baseball with authority and generate loud contact with above-average bat speed and consistent bat paths. He has great body control of his stance in the box and is capable of holding his head steady while waiting on offspeed pitches. Melton consistently demonstrates a methodical and patient approach at the plate, approaching each at-bat with a plan and intent to act upon it. He has shown he is capable of playing center field with a gliding route-running ability and strong throwing arm.
WEAKNESSES Melton’s biggest deficiency as a prospect lies in his ability to hit breaking balls. His natural bat path cuts underneath most breaking balls and prevents him from handling well executed breakers. He can occasionally run through patches of a stiff swing that hinders his ability to put the bat on the ball for all pitches. There is a clear difference in his swing execution when Melton is easy and relaxed versus tense and aggressive.
SUMMARY Melton has an exciting offensive toolset as an athlete. The bat speed and raw power are legitimate, and Melton and Astros player development are a strong pairing. He has the ceiling of a big league regular with his toolset, although the breaking ball whiff concerns are noteworthy.
EVALUATOR Jackson Thomas
6. Korey Lee, C - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 45
7. Colin Barber, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season OFP: 40
8. Miguel Ullola, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
9. Joey Loperfido, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
10. Spencer Arrighetti, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 40