About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Wilmer Flores, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 16 OFP: 45
| Fastball | Cutter | Curveball | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 | High |
| 93-98 mph | 78-84 mph | 88-92 mph |
PHYSICAL Flores has a tall and strong frame that is already at physical maturity. He utilizes a three-quarters arm slot, and there is still some effort at release, but it’s been toned down.
STRENGTHS Flores fills up the strike zone with an arsenal that projects at least average across the board. He consistently generates whiffs with his fastball and cutter, largely because there’s more consistent command with those pitches. His mid-to-high-90s fastball plays well to the top of the zone. The cutter has a very slider-esque shape with depth and horizontal movement. He does appear to have a feel to manipulate the cutter grip to give the hitter a different look. His curveball has a ton of depth to it with sharp break. The pitch flashes plus and has a chance to stay there long term with further refinement, which would make it his best offering.
WEAKNESSES There’s effort at release that will add some extra reliever risk. His curveball consistency will also be a question going forward. He doesn’t always have command of the pitch and the shape can change. Losing his release means Flores has to rely on his fastball/cutter combination for a large part of a start. As the hitters get better, that could be harder to do.
SUMMARY Flores has every chance to be a starter long term. He fills up the zone and keeps walks down. He generates plenty of swing and miss in the zone, too. His fastball and cutter are more consistent, so his ceiling may very well be driven by how far his curveball comes around. That pitch is currently his lowest grade, but it comes with the highest ceiling. The amount of strikes he throws gives him a backend rotation floor as a starter, with the potential of a mid-rotation arm if the curveball comes around.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
2. Colt Keith, 3B - 50 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 13 OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 40 | High |
PHYSICAL Keith is tall and has a muscular build with broad shoulders. His lower half is thick and strong, and there’s no room left to project on his frame.
STRENGTHS Keith offers a bat-first profile that could max out with above-average hit and power tools. He makes a lot of quality contact that is driven by both an innate feel for the strike zone and good swing decisions. He didn't expand the zone and posted elite chase rates while in High-A. This allowed him to cut his strikeout rate to below the 20% mark while also maintaining a walk rate above 10%. Keith’s quick and compact swing creates contact to all fields. He hits the ball hard and posted plus exit velocities last season. He shows an ability to get the ball in the air with consistency, and there’s enough raw juice here for him to also produce power to all fields. Keith spent the majority of his time at third base last year, but he’s also consistently taken reps at second base since getting drafted. He has an above-average arm and was on the radar for some teams as a two-way player out of high school.
WEAKNESSES There are some injury concerns with Keith after he hurt his shoulder and played just 48 games last season. He doesn’t move that well on the base paths or on the defensive side of the ball. While he has the arm for third base, he may be better suited for second base long term.
SUMMARY Keith came out of the gates on a mission in 2022, but his season was cut short following an injury. He managed to see some late season reps during the Arizona Fall League. It’s a bat-first profile, but the bat looks very good and projects as above-average in both hit and power. There are still some questions on his defense, but his mature approach and ability to get the bat on the ball give him a ceiling of a future regular somewhere on the dirt.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
3. Jackson Jobe, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 55
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 70 | 45 | 50 | High |
| 94-96 mph | 83-85 mph | 83-85 mph |
PHYSICAL Jobe has an athletic frame with wide shoulders. It’s a strong build with a thick lower half, and there’s still room for projection. He has athletic movements on the mound and throws from a three-quarters arm slot.
STRENGTHS Spin is Jobe’s calling card, producing extremely high spin rates on both his fastball and slider. His above-average fastball has plenty of armside life to it in the mid-90s. His best pitch is his double-plus slider. It’s not only metrically fantastic, but it has a lot of sweep and depth to it. The pitch projects as a legitimate out pitch. His changeup is a distinct third pitch, but it flashes fade down in the zone. He controlled all of his pitches well enough during his professional debut to keep his walks down as a whole, and he specifically showed signs of improvement as the season progressed. Jobe’s stuff plays extremely well for whiffs when he’s hitting his spots.
WEAKNESSES Consistency issues plagued Jobe during his first professional season. He is still learning how to use his big stuff, which includes how to sequence and where each pitch best plays. These were a big roadblock early in the season, but he showed improvement as the year wore on. Jobe’s fastball shape is also inconsistent. Rather than missing the zone, his command issues arise from catching too much of the plate. He is still raw and learning to harness his stuff, which adds risk to the profile.
SUMMARY Jobe took massive steps forward during his first year. He went from a prep draftee just throwing the ball towards the plate to being a pitcher with an idea of how to use his arsenal. His big slider is a high spin pitch with double-plus potential that should be an oft-used offering as he progresses. His fastball, while inconsistent, is another high spin offering that has a very good shape at its best. There’s mid rotation potential here with plenty of risk to the profile.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
4. Izaac Pacheco, 3B - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 9 OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 40 | High |
PHYSICAL Pacheco is tall and has a big, strong frame that is already filled out with muscle. His natural strength is a substantial part of why has so much raw power. His emphasis at this point in his development should be maintaining his body.
STRENGTHS The big-bodied infielder has big raw power. He posted plus exit velocities last season as a teenager, and there’s potentially room for growth as he improves the quality of his swing. It’s a power-over-hit approach, which is more a testament of his power than an indication of a lacking hit tool. He flashes power to all fields and an ability to go with the pitch instead of forcing something. At the present, most of his power is to the pull side, but he can produce pop the other way, too. It’s potentially plus playable power. His approach is mature for his age, and he routinely works counts, fights off pitches, and draws walks. His bat-to-ball skills are above-average, as are his contact rates, and the hit tool overall projects as average. Pacheco looks comfortable at third base after spending the majority of his season there. He has good reactions and above-average arm strength that should keep him at the hot corner. He also shows high baseball intelligence, often making successful and noticeable in-game adjustments.
WEAKNESSES Although he cut down on his swings and misses, it’s still present, particularly because there’s still a slight tendency for him to expand the zone. Pacheco hasn’t consistently gotten into his big power yet, but it should be coming. With his build already being maxed out, there will be a question of body maintenance. He’s limited to either first or third base defensively.
SUMMARY Pacheco is a very mature hitter for his age. The power potential is obvious and started to show more after a promotion out of the Florida State League. He can spray the ball around the yard and shows the ability to do it with power. He looks to be a long term third baseman, although he may still end up at first base depending on his physical maturation. At his ceiling, Pacheco is a power-hitting bat in the middle of the order.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
5. Jace Jung, 2B - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A+
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 11
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 55 | 45 | 45 | 40 | High |
PHYSICAL Jung has a medium build with sloping shoulders. There doesn’t appear to be any room left for projection, but there’s already a lot of good weight on his frame. He has an odd setup at the plate where his bat head points almost straight back. He’s the younger brother of Josh Jung.
STRENGTHS Jung is an offensive-oriented prospect who has above-average potential with the stick. He has quick hands, and his swing produces some natural loft that leads to power. He also hits the ball hard and ranked near the top of his draft class in terms of hard hit percentage and max exit velocity. He has a long track record of hitting in college, and there’s genuine raw juice here, too. He showed off a mature approach during his professional debut that allowed him to work counts by not chasing out of the zone. His plate discipline should allow him to hunt pitches to drive, which will ultimately allow both his hit and power tools to play as he moves up the ladder.
WEAKNESSES There’s no evidence Jung’s quirky setup impacts his offensive ability, but it’s unorthodox and turned some away during the draft cycle. The bigger question on draft day was where he would play defensively. The Tigers put him at second base during his initial stint, and he did well enough there to suggest the team will let him stick. He has a fringe-average arm that plays up slightly due to his accuracy, and he moves well enough laterally to not be a liability at the keystone. The overall package is fringe-average, which means he might be displaced if a stronger defender comes along.
SUMMARY The Tigers snapped up Jung with the twelfth selection last July, and the tools exist for him to be a future big league regular at second base. He’ll need to hit with more impact than he did during his debut to get there, but he’s already among the team’s best offensive prospects.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
6. Dillon Dingler, C - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 50
7. Reese Olson, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 8 OFP: 50
8. Peyton Graham, SS/3B - 45 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 36
9. Justyn-Henry Malloy, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked (ATL)
10. Ty Madden, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 7 OFP: 50