About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Daniel Espino, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 55
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 55 | 60 | 45 | 45 | High |
| 95-99 mph | 72-79 mph | 85-89 mph | 86-89 mph |
PHYSICAL Espino is well-built despite shorter height for a pitcher. He has a thicker lower half and is built like he could withstand the workload of a running back. He releases the ball well thanks to his solid athleticism, which also allows him to repeat his delivery. There’s no room for projection, but he has made strides in the flexibility department since becoming a professional. He dealt with shoulder and knee injuries that sapped most of last season.
STRENGTHS Espino possesses one of the better arsenals in entire minors, headlined by a mid-to-upper-90s fastball that has serious movement on it. The pitch is difficult for batters to square up, and he’s also able to generate a ton of swings and misses. The velocity comes out almost effortlessly, which is encouraging from a durability standpoint. The curveball has prototypical 12/6 shape with hard movement and good velocity behind it. It’s another weapon in his arsenal that gets some swings-and-misses. The above-average pitch plays well low in the zone, and he also uses it for chases below the zone. The slider is his best secondary offering. The comfortably plus pitch sits in mid-to-upper-80s, and its gyro action gets plenty of whiffs. Espino also works in a changeup.
WEAKNESSES Command leaves a bit to be desired and brings down his ceiling and puts some reliever risk in the profile. His changeup is also a distinct fourth pitch that inconsistently flashes solid tumble and fade. There are some legitimate durability concerns given his recent battle with injuries. Although the arm talent is undeniable, he’s pitched a total of 133.2 innings since being drafted in 2019.
SUMMARY Espino is one of the game’s best pitching prospects, but he’s not without risk. He has four distinct pitches, three of which routinely generate whiffs, and he’s in the right organization to squeeze out every ounce of his potential. His injuries and command do create some questions, but the Guardians will give him every opportunity to excel in a rotation role. If that doesn’t work out, he should be a dominant reliever.
EVALUATOR Rhys White
2. Gavin Williams, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 6 OFP: 50
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 45 | High |
| 93-99 mph | 75-80 mph | 84-89 mph | 85-90 mph |
PHYSICAL Williams has an extra large and physical frame with little to no projection remaining. It’s a relatively easy operation for Williams, featuring some herky jerky movements in the middle of his delivery. He throws from a high three-quarters arm slot and has good body control for his size. He repeats his delivery well.
STRENGTHS The fastball is one of the best in the minor leagues. It can be downright dominant at times, and he’ll solely pitch off it when it is. The pitch has solid ride and running life in the mid-to-upper-90s. He has touched 100 MPH while racking up whiffs aplenty. His curveball is his best secondary. It’s a big bender with tons of depth and high spin in the upper-70s. It features very sharp downward action, and he can consistently land it for strikes. The slider is thrown hard and has above-average potential with two-plane break and some late bite. The changeup has improved, featuring solid fading life in the upper-80s while touching 90 MPH. He’s begun to trust it more for whiffs against left-handers and right-handers alike. Despite a rough start in Double-A, Williams began to show average control as the year went on.
WEAKNESSES The biggest concern is his command. He can overthrow and yank pitches to his gloveside, and there’s times where he can leave fastballs high and inside. This did get better as the year progressed, but it’s something to monitor. The curveball can jump out of his hand and become more recognizable, as well. There’s a chance for average command given his easy and repeatable delivery, although it projects as fringe-average for now.
SUMMARY Cleveland banked on Williams carrying his 2021 form into pro ball and, so far, he’s been absolutely dominant. He’s on a fast track to the big leagues as a starter, and there’s a chance he could make his debut in 2023.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
3. Tanner Bibee, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 45 | 55 | 55 | 50 | Moderate |
| 94-97 mph | 79-85 mph | 84-86 mph | 80-86 mph |
PHYSICAL Bibee possesses a classic, durable pitcher's frame with a strong lower half. He has added considerable strength since college while also increasing his athleticism and explosiveness. He has a bulldog mentality on the mound and comes from a strong pitching background. Bibee is a hard worker who takes coaching well. There’s some effort in his delivery.
STRENGTHS Bibee has long had above-average control, but he’s managed to improve his stuff since joining the organization and is an entirely different prospect than when he was in college. He now has a power fastball that works in the mid-to-upper-90s following his increased strength and explosiveness. The above-average pitch comes in from a tough, over-the-top arm slot. He also throws an above-average changeup that offers plenty of drop and armside run. Bibee is confident in the pitch and will double and triple up on it regardless of counts and batter handedness. His changeup has depth and sweep and also projects as above-average. He rounds out his arsenal with a curveball that flashes average. He controls and commands all four pitches.
WEAKNESSES The curveball flashes, but it could use better shape and tightness. It’s a distinct fourth offering that needs improvement. Bibee’s fastball has carry but can be lifted and become home run prone if he misses in the zone. He has occasionally lost balance on the mound during his delivery.
SUMMARY Strength gains have sustainably increased his velocity, and he’s now trending like a mid-rotation starter. There’s still some work to do in terms of tightening up his curveball, but he has plus makeup and work ethic, and he’ll do whatever it takes to improve. Despite his short body of work, he’s already one of the organization’s best prospects, and he might just be scratching the surface of his ability.
EVALUATOR Justin Lada
4. Bo Naylor, 3B - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 16 OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 45 | High |
PHYSICAL Naylor has a traditional catcher’s body with a thick lower half, big butt, and plenty of strength in his upper half. He’s physically maxed, but he’s a good athlete and one of the more agile catching prospects in the minor leagues.
STRENGTHS Naylor improved his approach in 2022, and he’s now statistically one of the more disciplined hitters in the upper minors. He doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone, and he makes plenty of contact on pitches in the zone. His combination of above-average exit velocities and bat path allow him to reach his power during games, and he should eventually settle in as an above-average power hitter. He posted above-average contact rates on pitches in the zone, and that’s backed up by his natural bat-to-ball skills. It’s still a power-oriented approach, but he shows an ability to use the whole field for contact. Naylor is agile for his size and position, and he’ll still post average times down the line. He’s also a heady runner who is unafraid to take a base. His defense is improving, but it’s his above-average arm that helps the profile.
WEAKNESSES Naylor’s passivity too often puts him behind in the count. That’s helped lead to some of his strikeout woes, and he needs to find a balance against better pitching. He also still takes some big, aggressive swings at the plate while trying to forcefully drive the ball. His power should play without that level of aggressiveness. Naylor has quality athleticism for a catcher, but his receiving is still a work in progress. He should be playable behind the plate, but he’s unlikely to ever stand out. That puts more pressure on his bat to perform.
SUMMARY Naylor revitalized his prospect stock by improving his approach and reaching more of his power. There’s still some work to be done on both sides of the ball, but he’s once again trending like a future average catcher who can do a little bit of everything on the field.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
5. Brayan Rocchio, SS - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 50
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 40 | 55 | 55 | 55 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Rocchio has about average height for the position with a lean frame. He’s noticeably added muscle in the upper half, and there’s still room for more. The switch hitter is a good athlete on both sides of the ball.
STRENGTHS Rocchio possesses a quality approach that includes no concerning chase rates and generally good swing decisions on pitches in the strike zone. He works counts and can be a difficult out when at his best. He has above-average bat-to-ball skills and posted plus contact rates last season despite what might have otherwise been considered a down year. He hits most of his balls to the pull side, although he does show a feel for utilizing the whole field for contact. He has good bat speed and some strength, and his raw power is about average. It’s more of a contact-oriented approach, but he should be capable of hitting double-digit home runs at the next level. Rocchio is a quality defender who has experience all over the infield. He effortlessly makes the routine play, and he’s rangy and intelligent enough to make more difficult plays in the hole, too. His arm is above-average and works on the left side of the infield. He’s also an above-average runner.
WEAKNESSES Rocchio can be aggressive in all facets of his game. He trusts his bat-to-ball skills almost too much at times, which can lead to him swinging when he perhaps shouldn’t. He still makes a lot of contact, but it’s too frequently suboptimal. More than half of his balls in play were on the ground once he reached Triple-A, and he needs to focus more on lifting the ball to maximize his hit tool. He also doesn’t hit the ball with much authority, posting only average exit velocities.
SUMMARY Rocchio can do a little bit of everything on the field, and he’s a safe bet to be at least a utility man. There’s still plenty of offensive potential here, but it will come down to further physical maturation and him learning to keep the ball off the ground. He should be up and in the starting lineup sometime in 2023.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
6. George Valera, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 55
7. Chase DeLauter, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 14
8. Logan Allen, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 7 OFP: 50
9. Justin Campbell, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 29
10. Cody Morris, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 26 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 12 OFP: 45