The Cincinnati Reds have seen the talent in their farm system diminish but for all the right reasons. They have graduated more than a handful of prospects who will now be key contributors to their future success. Gone are the days when Elly De La Cruz dominated the minors. He has now made it to the big leagues, and the title of best prospect in the Reds system belongs to Noelvi Marte. He will not hold this mantle for long, as he is yet another prospect who will soon graduate. The Reds have a strong system, even after their recent graduates have lost their prospect status. The lower levels of the system offer intriguing position player prospects, as the Reds consistently scout well. They received an influx of talented arms into their system by way of the draft with the additions of Rhett Lowder and Ty Floyd. This team has a core of young hitters who are prepared to compete in the NL Central. The Reds will need to continue to draft and sign prospects effectively if they want to supplement their major league team, whether that is by graduating more contributors or by going outside of the organization in trades. This is crucial in their journey towards building a winning team that can consistently compete, considering the financial limitations they face.
About Our Top 30 Lists
Prospects Live, led by its evaluating team, is proud to begin rolling out its annual offseason system reports. The team has meticulously worked on every detail in this list and all future teams, sparing no effort as we combine industry feedback, our live looks, film, and available data to compile each org. We believe this effort has enabled us to present you, the reader, with our best possible list.
We have constructed this list using the Overall Future Potential (OFP) scale. There is no perfect equation for ranking prospects or assigning value to them, but we believe this method is the best possible approach. Every prospect on this list has been graded based on the tried and true 20-80 scouting scale. An 80 is the highest tool and OFP grade on the scale, reserved for MVP-caliber players or tools. Conversely, a 20 is reserved for non-prospects (NPs). A 50 OFP falls in the middle, indicating our evaluators deem this player a future average major league player. Below the 50 OFP tier are the 45s and 40s, comprising a large majority of players on each list. These are specific-role players, such as platoon hitters, utility players, or low-leverage relievers. Above the 50 OFP tier are the 55s and 60s. A 55 represents a future above-average player, and a 60 OFP designation is reserved for future All-Star caliber players.
In addition to the tool grades and OFP, we will also include a 'Risk' associated with each prospect. We use this to better communicate to you, the reader, whether a grade is more aggressive or conservative in nature. The evaluation team has worked painstakingly to apply both the grades and risk components to better illustrate how each individual prospect stacks up in their respective system and in the baseball ecosystem.
This year, we decided to accompany the scouting reports with dynasty commentary on each, as well as quick reference to the player's Top 500 fantasy prospect rank (top 1000 dynasty rank coming soon), PLIVE+ metrics and Jordan Rosenblum's peak projections. The PLIVE+ rank noted is the rank among hitters, starters or relievers.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank and First 5 Reports for Free Below (Reds 30 Reports Free on Patreon)
1. Noelvi Marte, 3B - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: MLB
2023 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 60
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 29
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 60 | 45 | 60 | 50 | High |
Report Marte was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Luis Castillo to the Seattle Mariners. He started the 2023 season in Double-A, where he was playing shortstop and third base, but played strictly third base after getting promoted to Triple-A and also in the big leagues. He’s done a great job of getting in shape and staying on the dirt where his plus arm can be utilized. Offensively he opened his stance up and has top-of-the-scale bat speed, which allows him to turn on everything. It’s easy double-plus raw power, and he’s posted a max EV of over 115 in his big-league sample. The ability to do damage and make contact at an above-average rate is a rare combination for someone as young as Noelvi, and up until his big-league debut, he has been able to cut the strikeout rate at every stop. He does need to work on consistently finding the barrel, though, and his barrel rate is surprisingly low for someone with as much juice as he has. I’m still confident this is an easy 30+ homer dude at peak in that ballpark. – Matt Thompson
Fantasy Outlook The Reds’ future is very exciting and Marte is just another example of a young hitter with plenty of potential to dream on. After posting solid numbers in Double-A (116 wRC+) and Triple-A (104 wRC+) earlier in 2023, the Reds gave him some run at the hot corner in the heat of a playoff race. He struggled a little in his brief 2023 cameo (96 wRC+, 86% zone contact in 92 at bats), but with more experience should continue to improve. Marte has worked hard to get his body ready for the rigors of a long major league season and is someone who should contribute in all offensive categories. The hope is that he can tap into more power due to his incredible bat speed. Elevating the baseball will be the key to unlocking this power, and with GAB as his home park, the results of this type of change could be huge for Noelvi and the Reds. In his current state, Marte projects as an above average hitter who gets on base and could challenge for 20/20 seasons in his prime. – Greg Hoogkamp
2. Rhett Lowder, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: NCAA
2023 MLB Draft Rank: 9
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 132
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 60 | 60 | 55 | High |
Report The ace of a dynamic Wake Forest weekend rotation, Lowder’s mix of elite pitchability and stuff stands out, and he enters the Reds system as one of the best arms in the minors. He’s got two fastball shapes at his disposal, led by a running two-seamer that Lowder can generate a ton of ground balls with. The four-seamer could use some fixing, mainly due to the modest ride it possesses. He sat in the 91-95 MPH range often and reached 97 MPH in 2023, and with the nature of his projectable and athletic body, there could be more on the way when he’s physically mature. The slider, which lagged behind the change-up in 2022, improved drastically in 2023, as Lowder threw it harder, and the pitch flashed more teeth with hard two-plane movement and tilt. At its best, it’s a true plus pitch. His patented change-up was used slightly less in 2023, but the verdict is still the same. It’s a plus pitch with parachute-esque fade in the mid-80s that can give hitters fits when he’s on. He hammers the zone with strikes and commands the baseball very well, working horizontally across the zone with ease. There were some medical concerns around draft time for Lowder, and with the workload he had in college, he was placed on the development list at High-A and likely won’t make his debut until 2024. - Tyler Jennings
Fantasy Outlook An elite college arm to happily select in FYPDs, Lowder looks like a future fantasy stud. Slotting just within the top 100 after being drafted, Lowder seems to be a lock for the upper echelon of the list until his debut. A strike-thrower with nasty secondaries among four good pitches at his disposal and, most importantly, room to grow and improve further. Lowder has a stable floor as a backend rotation piece but will more likely settle towards the top of a starter pile – and this will be the same for your fantasy team. – Drew Wheeler
3. Blake Dunn, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 25 Highest Level: AA
2023 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 142
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 55 | 50 | 60 | 70 | Moderate |
Report The former Western Michigan Bronco put together a very strong season in the Midwest League in Dayton before performing even better after a midseason promotion to Double-A Chattanooga, and health was a huge reason why. Dunn blew away his previous career high in games played this year by more than doubling his career total, and he managed to avoid the fluky injuries that have plagued him in the past. He took a ball off the face in 2021 while playing the field that resulted in a broken nose, which cost him a big chunk of his 2021 season, and in 2022 his season was delayed by a forearm injury, and then when got healthy, he missed time due to a shoulder injury he obtained in a freak collision, also while in the field. He’s a high-energy dude who will sacrifice his body to make a play, and the missed time, combined with the lost COVID year, explains why he has been old for the level at every stop to this point. He had some positive luck this year as he stayed healthy and hit the ball hard very frequently, resulting in a .413 BABIP, and strong exit velocity numbers north of 112 mph, which has boosted the statline a bit. It’s not all luck, though, as his approach is very strong, and the batted ball data is intriguing. He has a short and powerful stroke that should allow him to handle big-league pitching. He’s an average defender in center, likely above-average or even plus on a corner, and his speed will translate to the basepaths, where he should steal 20+ bases annually. He should play a big role in 2024 for the Reds and is coming off a 20+ homer and a 50+ steal season. - Matt Thompson
Fantasy Outlook Blake Dunn is the type of prospect where once you pick him up, chances are he’s either a mainstay on your team or you’re dropping him. In short, the lack of name value, high BABIP, and old-for-his-level nature make it so he’s got little to no trade value, and you’re left rooting for him to keep crushing it in the minors as he climbs his way onto your team. Dunn’s ceiling is that of an OF3 on your team, and he likely settles as an OF4 who’ll always retain value thanks to his 20+ SB speed on the base paths. - Eddy Almaguer
4. Chase Petty, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: AA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 7 OFP: 50
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 131
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 70 | 45 | 50 | High |
Report Petty was one of the more highly touted amateur pitching prospects of the last few years, famously dialing it up to 102 mph with a hellacious slider. We’re now three years removed from his amateur days, and a lot has changed. Petty was traded to the Reds in the Sonny Gray deal, and while he isn’t hitting 102 with the fastball anymore, he still lives in the mid-90s and can reach back for more when he needs it. This change was by design, and he also dropped his arm slot, which gives his sinker more life in the bottom half of the zone. His slider is his best pitch, and it has two-plane movement and also features some slight variations of the pitch with a more cutter-y version in the upper part of the zone at a slightly higher velocity. His changeup has improved, as has the overall command of his arsenal, but the pitch is behind his other two offerings. He’s a very strong athlete on the mound and has been kept on very strict pitch counts this year, going no more than 60 pitches or four innings in his outings. The athleticism and stuff point to a big league future. His health, command, and changeup will ultimately decide his role. If it all clicks, we could have a potential top of the rotation arm. - Matt Thompson
Fantasy Outlook Petty may not have the jaw-slackening type of velocity promised upon his being drafted to Minnesota, but mechanical changes to his fastball have kept the pitch as an above-average offering. Athletic, young, and monitored with care, if the changeup and command continue to develop, Petty could be a ratio contributor (while contributing healthy K numbers) in any league with an 85th percentile potential to anchor your fantasy staff. - Drew Wheeler
5. Connor Phillips, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: MLB
2023 Pre-season Rank: 12 OFP: 45
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 102
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 60 | 55 | 45 | 45 | High |
Report Good solid frame from Connor Phillips and he is decently athletic as well. The fastball and the breaking pitches carry the profile. The fastball is more often than not in the upper 90s and sometimes will touch 98. It’s a relatively straight fastball that, at its best, plays up in the zone. We prefer the curveball more because of its 12-6 shape and his ability to get swing-and-misses with it more consistently than the slider. The slider is more cuttery in shape and in action and is a pitch that doesn’t get a lot of whiffs, but produces a lot of soft contact on the ground. Phillips, at the moment, should probably scrap the changeup; it is a bit too firm, doesn’t get the requisite action, and is a distant fourth offering. His command is below average as he seems to miss his spots, but it’s not egregious. He is athletic enough that he can repeat his delivery. The problem is none of Phillip’s pitches garner a significant amount of swings-and-misses, and will have to rely on effectively placing his pitches to be successful. His fastball should elicit more whiffs, but due to him spotting it more often than not in the lower half of the zone, its straight shape is easy for a hitter to get a hold of. With a slight change in the way he deploys the fastball, there is some hope he could take the next step forward and become a 50. He can be deployed as a starter right now, with a back-end starter being the upside. If he were to get moved to the bullpen, he could be a successful high-leverage reliever with the fastball and two distinct breaking balls. He made a handful of starts down the stretch as the Reds made their ill-fated playoff bid and showed some promise, but ran into some trouble with the homerun ball. He will be in the mix for a rotation spot next year. – Rhys White
Fantasy Outlook Connor Phillips is a major leaguer – literally, did you see he debuted last year? – and should remain so, or in the ‘first man up’ slot at Triple-A for 2024. At the moment, the hope is for Phillips to remain in the rotation, but the limited spots there may push him to the bullpen, which could be a silver-lining type result for him. His fastball/curveball combination could be nasty late in a game, providing Ks and relatively stable ratios. – Drew Wheeler
6. Edwin Arroyo, SS - 45 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A+
2023 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 50
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 102
7. Sal Stewart, 3B - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A+
2023 Pre-season Rank: 14 OFP: 45
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 138
8. Cam Collier, 3B - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 50
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 144
9. Carlos Jorge, 2B - 45 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 16 OFP: 45
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 67
10. Hector Rodriguez, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 28 OFP: 40
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 83