The Chicago Cubs have ready-made reinforcements who will certainly graduate from this list and assist them in competing for the division title. Pete Crow-Armstrong debuted last year and should immediately contribute, thanks to his glove and his hit tool. The Cubs also have Cade Horton, who should play a significant role in the plans for the big league squad. Most of their top prospects have come in through trades. The system is filled with intriguing low minor-league hitters. Although Cristian Hernandez has not lived up to expectations so far, some of their lower-tier investments in the International Free Agent (IFA) market have been successful, such as Pedro Ramirez and Jefferson Rojas. The back end of this list and system is filled with solid pitchers who are likely to be relievers and will likely contribute to the bullpen in the next year or so. The Cubs have bolstered their system with a promising group of prospects, and their most recent draft has already shown signs of progress with Matt Shaw advancing to Double-A in his first taste of pro ball. The next step will be to continue to draft/sign as well as develop their prospects, in order to avoid the mistakes made by the previous competitive Cubs team. However, early signs indicate that the current regime might be capable of achieving this.
About Our Top 30 Lists
Prospects Live, led by its evaluating team, is proud to begin rolling out its annual offseason system reports. The team has meticulously worked on every detail in this list and all future teams, sparing no effort as we combine industry feedback, our live looks, film, and available data to compile each org. We believe this effort has enabled us to present you, the reader, with our best possible list.
We have constructed this list using the Overall Future Potential (OFP) scale. There is no perfect equation for ranking prospects or assigning value to them, but we believe this method is the best possible approach. Every prospect on this list has been graded based on the tried and true 20-80 scouting scale. An 80 is the highest tool and OFP grade on the scale, reserved for MVP-caliber players or tools. Conversely, a 20 is reserved for non-prospects (NPs). A 50 OFP falls in the middle, indicating our evaluators deem this player a future average major league player. Below the 50 OFP tier are the 45s and 40s, comprising a large majority of players on each list. These are specific-role players, such as platoon hitters, utility players, or low-leverage relievers. Above the 50 OFP tier are the 55s and 60s. A 55 represents a future above-average player, and a 60 OFP designation is reserved for future All-Star caliber players.
In addition to the tool grades and OFP, we will also include a 'Risk' associated with each prospect. We use this to better communicate to you, the reader, whether a grade is more aggressive or conservative in nature. The evaluation team has worked painstakingly to apply both the grades and risk components to better illustrate how each individual prospect stacks up in their respective system and in the baseball ecosystem.
This year, we decided to accompany the scouting reports with dynasty commentary on each, as well as quick reference to the player's Top 500 fantasy prospect rank (top 1000 dynasty rank coming soon), PLIVE+ metrics and Jordan Rosenblum's peak projections. The PLIVE+ rank noted is the rank among hitters, starters or relievers.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank and First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong - 60 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: MLB
2023 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 60
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 10
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 50 | 70 | 60 | 70 | Moderate |
Report Pete Crow-Armstrong started 2023 in Double-A after hitting .312/.376/.520 across both levels of A-ball in 2022 and answered all of the questions about how he would bounce back from a serious shoulder injury that limited him to six games in 2021. He climbed all the way to the big leagues in 2023 and immediately made an impact defensively with a pair of acrobatic catches in his first start in center. His plus-plus defense and speed are his loudest tools, paving the way for an elite centerfielder who takes incredible routes to balls. He excels at going back on balls with how he positions his body and stays in control. It's a plus arm with both above-average carry and accuracy, and he could be an everyday big leaguer on his defensive skills alone. The speed also translates to the basepaths, where he should be a stolen base threat. Offensively he has above-average power to the pull side and has shown it in games with a 107 Max EV and a 90% EV up over 103. He’s shown the ability to continue to make adjustments at the plate and is a solid bet to perform offensively. He does chase out of the zone a bit more than you’d like, and he’s also had sub-80% contact rates at both minor league stops in 2023. He’s the rare prospect that is desired in both real life and fantasy. During his peak seasons, we could see 20+ homers and 30+ stolen bases. - Matt Thompson
Fantasy Outlook Crow-Armstrong continued his steady ascent up our prospect fantasy rankings in 2023 with some solid growth in his offensive game combined with his already elite defense and speed. Specifically, he’s learned how to maximize his power over the last two seasons. He’s now aligning that power with proper launch angles, as shown by his 35.3 Sweet Spot%. Crow-Armstrong has seen his K% climb as he has moved up the minors, which will limit his batting average upside, but the hope is that as he matures he will become more disciplined at the plate. The constant for PCA is that he should be in the field every day because of his gold glove defense and that he will use his elite speed to swipe 20-30 bases per season. Growth in power and plate discipline are what will push him to become a fantasy star. - Greg Hoogkamp
2. Cade Horton, RHP - 60 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 55
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 24
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 50 | 70 | 55 | 55 | Moderate |
Report Slightly on the smaller side but not too small to raise any durability concerns, Horton athletic and constantly repeats his delivery well. His command is above average, as he is able to maneuver his pitches around the strike zone. The fastball is a mid-90s pitch with exceptional horizontal movement. His slider is the headliner of his arsenal; it is legitimately one of the best pitches in the minors. Horton's slider is a hard 1-7 two-plane downer movement that elicits plenty of swing-and-miss. The changeup is an above-average pitch that he uses against both right-handed and left-handed hitters, but it is primarily used against left-handed hitters. He does struggle with feel for the changeup at times during the game, but it consistently flashes above average. With more reps, it should become a consistently above-average offering. The curveball is the fourth-best offering with good vertical drop. It is an offering that can be used against both right-handed batters (RHBs) and left-handed batters (LHBs). He has the potential to be a number two starter on a competitive team, due to his four-pitch repertoire and above-average command. His fastball and slider are both plus pitches, providing him with a solid foundation, but the changeup has been flashing well, further enhancing his repertoire. This is considered one of the best arms in all of the minor leagues, offering a solid mid-rotation floor and the potential to become a number two starter. - Rhys White
Fantasy Outlook Horton had a tremendous start to his professional career in 2023, rising three levels (Low-A, High-A, and Double-A) and showing dominance at all three. In 88.1 IP, Horton posted a 33.5 K% and 7.7 BB% while holding hitters to a .191 BAA. Horton’s spike curveball and emerging split-grip changeup complement his excellent fastball. With his strong command and control, he has a very high floor as a fantasy starter with room to grow into an elite fantasy SP, and our team already views him as a top-five pitching prospect across all the minors. He should start in Double-A to begin the 2024 season, and his performance will dictate when the Cubs give him his first opportunity. A summer debut is a likely possibility. - Greg Hoogkamp
3. Matt Shaw, SS - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2023 MLB Draft Rank: 23
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 26
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 60 | Moderate |
Report The Cubs 2023 first round pick has already reached Double-A after just 23 games at Single-A and High-A ball, and for good reason. He has an advanced bat and controls the strike zone, low chase rate, and high contact rates. His swing is built to spray hard line drives around the field, and despite an average frame, he has above average power that plays in games. He drives the ball to right and right-center field with serious authority, and genuine foul-pole-to-foul-pole power. He has a really solid approach, looking to drive fastballs the other way, which allows him to drive offspeed and breaking stuff to the pull side. His size, combined with a fringe arm and the organization’s positional needs (Dansby), show it’s very likely Shaw will be a second baseman where his bat will play big time. Despite an advanced approach, he doesn’t walk a lot, but he also doesn’t strike out much as he looks to often put the ball in play. He can be overly patient early in the count, especially when taking hittable 0-0 pitches. He showed some signs he’ll need to work to be better against advanced breaking balls at the next level, but serious upside with the floor of a big league average second basemen. - Cameron Emamian
Fantasy Outlook Quick, how many second basemen had a 20 HR/20 SB season in 2023? The answer is zero. It’s a thin fantasy position, and Shaw has the tools to become a top-five player in the position thanks to his fantasy-friendly game, which includes a shot at 20/20. He gets dinged in OBP leagues thanks to his aggressive nature, but it’s something we can easily overlook for the Top 30 prospect with great underlying data. - Eddy Almaguer
4. Kevin Alcantara, OF - 55 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 55
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 66
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 60 | High |
Report The “Jaguar” has the highest upside of any hitter in the Cubs system. His speed and power are already plus tools, and there’s a chance for plus tools across the board here. He’s an elite athlete with plenty of room for good weight and strength, all while still maintaining at least above-average speed. He has continued to chip away at the strikeouts, and for the second straight season, he has improved his strikeout percentages while not giving up anything offensively. He constantly posts elite exit velocity numbers, and being able to maintain those while improving your contact rate against fastballs and breaking balls is a nice accomplishment. He’s always going to have issues with making contact due to his long arms, but they haven’t been pervasive enough to stop him from looking like a future top-of-the-lineup type bat. It’s a power-over-hit-tool type profile, but both could still be plus tools if everything maxes out. Defensively, he can play center, but when he shared a roster with Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2022 he found himself playing right field. I’d assume that is his future long-term home anyway, as we can expect him to add some mass to the frame. He’s well above average there and should post with 15-20 stolen bases a year in his prime seasons as well. There’s serious upside here, but it comes with substantial risk. - Matt Thompson
Fantasy Outlook Alcantara has it all: size, strength, power and speed. And there are signs that the breakout fantasy owners are waiting for is coming. He’s slightly cut his strikeout rate each of the last three seasons while maintaining an above average hard hit rate (32.5% in 2023). Alcantara could vault into superstardom if he could figure out how to turn some of his ground balls into fly balls. In 2023, he hit 49% of his balls in play on the ground, severely dampening his power. With a tweak here, 30 home runs could come easily. Alcantara also runs very well for someone his size and has posted double-digit steals each of the last two seasons. This rounds out what could turn out to be an elite fantasy profile. - Greg Hoogkamp
5. Owen Caissie, OF - 55 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 13 OFP: 45
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 47
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 60 | 45 | 55 | 50 | High |
Report The 2023 season was the first one Caissie has spent outside of a pitcher-friendly park since entering the Cubs organization via the Yu Darvish trade. All he did was hit .289/.398/.519 with 55 extra-base hits, 22 of them going over the wall. The Canadian-born outfielder was pushed aggressively by the Cubs and performed as one of the youngest everyday players in the Double-A Southern League. His power metrics are off the charts with massive exit velocity data and power numbers. His hardest-hit ball was up over 117 mph, which would put him in the top five in MLB. He’s also hitting the ball on the ground about 10% less than he has in the past. He’s hammering fastballs and sliders this year while showing some vulnerability against the softer stuff, like curveballs and changeups. Left-handers were blowing him up in previous looks by throwing softer stuff away from him, but this year, he’s done a much better job of staying closed, and on those pitches, now he’s even driving the ball against lefties. Like most hitters in the Southern League, Caissie started making more consistent contact after the pre-tacked baseballs went away and struck out around 10% less. He works pitchers and gets himself in deep counts, which does elevate the strikeout totals a little, not to mention he has long levers. He’s improved a bit defensively, but we still have him as fringe-average on a corner. He has enough arm for right. Ultimately though, you will put up with the strikeouts if he’s getting to his power in games, as he has been. He will go through his ugly stretches but is also capable of carrying the offense for a week. .240/.320/.500-type bat with plus-plus raw power. - Matt Thompson
Fantasy Outlook It’s time for fantasy owners to stop sleeping on Owen Caissie. If he isn’t rostered in your fantasy leagues, please make every effort to acquire him. Caissie’s power is some of the best in the minor leagues, and he is learning how to maximize it in games. With a 90th percentile EV above 110 and getting better at putting balls in the air, there’s easy 30 HR juice. There is some swing-and-miss concern in his profile, but despite his K% going up in 2023 (31.1% compared to 28.7% in 2022), much of his struggle can be attributed to the tacky baseball in the Southern League (his K% after July 13 was 27.1%). Caissie is still growing as a player, but his fantasy potential is tantalizing. Caissie is a good player to target in all formats (especially OBP). - Greg Hoogkamp
6. Jordan Wicks, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: MLB
2023 Pre-season Rank: 9 OFP: 45
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 187
7. Moises Ballesteros, C - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: AA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 22 OFP: 40
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 81
8. Ben Brown, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 8 OFP: 50
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 89
9. Jefferson Rojas, SS - 50 OFP
Age: 18 Highest Level: A
2023 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 203
10. Pedro Ramirez, SS - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2023 Pre-season Rank: 24 OFP: 40
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 405