About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Marcelo Mayer, SS - 60 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 45 | High |
PHYSICAL Mayer has an athletic body with broad shoulders and present strength. There’s room to grow but further weight could conceivably move him off shortstop. He has explosive actions at the plate and in the field.
STRENGTHS The 20-year-old has a fluid swing with good bat speed that creates natural loft. He showed good bat-to-ball skills and profiles to be a hit-over-power prospect, although he should still be able to tap into average power during games. Mayer has a good approach at the plate for his age. He’s looking to drive the ball but is willing to take walks when given nothing to hit. He takes pitches as they come and doesn’t try to force it, and that’s helped him use the entire field for contact and power. He’s shown the ability to hit velocity and breaking balls. The ball explodes off the bat when he finds the barrel. Mayer shows natural shortstop actions on the defensive side of the ball, including great reactions, instincts, and soft hands. He has quality lateral movement and first step quickness despite fringe-average footspeed, and he makes good reads. His above-average arm works well on the left side of the infield.
WEAKNESSES Mayer is young and not without flaws. There are some strikeout issues in his game, which comes from both pitch recognition and trouble handling elevated fastballs. That’s common for young hitters, but he will need to get more acclimated with velocity to maximize his hitting ability. Mayer plays an above-average shortstop, but there are some lingering questions about whether he outgrows the position.
SUMMARY Mayer was widely seen as the top prospect available in the 2021 draft, and Boston got lucky to land him fourth overall. The young infielder shows an impressive ability to adapt quickly, something that should show up again this season as he makes his way through the minor leagues. He has the ability to impact both sides of the ball and the potential to be an All-Star.
EVALUATOR Cameron Emamian
2. Triston Casas, 1B - 55 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 45 | 60 | 40 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Casas is tall with an extremely physical frame. There’s no remaining projection, but he has present strength in both halves and maintains looseness in his hips and hands during his swing.
STRENGTHS A bat-first prospect, Casas has remarkable pitch recognition and is a very disciplined hitter on pitches both in and out of the zone. He won’t swing unless it is his pitch and, when it is, he makes hard contact. His plate discipline should make him an on-base machine once he makes more consistent contact. He’ll choke up and widen his stance to adjust for counts, and there’s also potential plus power waiting to be unlocked. He has shown an ability to get the ball in the air while in the minor leagues, although the hit-over-power approach may lead to something closer to above-average game power. Casas has become a serviceable defensive first baseman, and he has a plus arm in the field.
WEAKNESSES Casas battled injuries that ultimately delayed the start of his 2022 season, but he overcame those to eventually reach the big leagues. Health will be key for him. He has a great approach, but his contact rates have been subpar, and that has led to some strikeouts. He also doesn’t consistently create optimal contact, which goes back to his bat-to-ball skills. Casas can also become too patient, which plays into his strikeout issues and less game power because he becomes more contact-oriented in two-strike counts. His defense at first base is fringy, and he could conceivably wind up as a designated hitter down the line if a better defender comes along.
SUMMARY The 23-year-old is among the best hitting prospects for the Red Sox since Rafael Devers, but there’s still work to be done. His brief big league debut didn’t go as planned from a contact standpoint, but his .706 OPS and individual moments, like taking Gerrit Cole the opposite way over the Green Monster, are something to build on. He still has a chance to be a special bat.
EVALUATOR Cameron Emamian
3. Miguel Bleis, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: CPX
2022 Pre-season Rank: 28 OFP: 40
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 50 | High |
PHYSICAL Bleis has a very projectable long and lanky frame with room to grow in both halves without losing his quality athleticism. His swing has some moving parts, but he gets his weight back and quickly gets his hands through the zone.
STRENGTHS The 19-year-old is young and projectable, and he already has some of the best raw power in the system. He posted good underlying data in the Florida Compex League last year, including above-average exit velocities and contact rates. He makes consistent contact and has shown an ability to handle high velocity. He displays an advanced approach for someone his age. He’s willing to lay off pitches out of the zone and take walks when given nothing to hit. He hunts for his pitch to drive, and there’s potentially plus game power here if he maintains his current approach and adds further strength. His average speed plays well on defense as he takes long strides and good routes. He has a good chance to remain in center field long term.
WEAKNESSES Bleis still has a lot of physical growth ahead of him before maxing out his power potential. Most of his present power comes against fastballs, and he still has an opportunity to improve his ability to hit breaking balls. There is a slight tendency to expand the zone against good pitches with late break and that played into his moderately high strikeout rate in the FCL.
SUMMARY The young slugger is Boston’s best international prospect since Rafael Devers. He receives high remarks from anyone who has seen him since joining the professional ranks, and he backed that up by recording some of the best data for a teenager last season. The ceiling is quite high, and he’s likely to report to full season ball to begin the year. He’s firmly among the organization’s best prospects, and he has a chance to emerge as one of the best in the entire sport with a repeat of last season.
EVALUATOR Cameron Emamian
4. Ceddanne Rafaela, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 45 | 70 | 55 | 60 | High |
PHYSICAL Rafaela has a slight, athletic frame with twitchy actions. He has sneaky strength for his size, which shows up in his power and arm, and a great first step and acceleration.
STRENGTHS The 22-year-old is one of the best defenders in the entire organization, and he’s big-league ready from a defensive standpoint. He’s played all over the field since signing with the Red Sox, but he’s seemingly settled into center field. His plus speed and above-average arm strength play well up the middle, and he can emerge as a double-plus defender in the grass. Rafaela broke out with the bat in 2022, and he’s now looking like a potential impact player on both sides of the ball. He has quick hands at the plate and posted average contact rates last season. His bat-to-ball skills are above-average, which is driven by his hand-eye coordination, and he also shows sneaky power that primarily plays to his pull side. He’s likely to be more hit-over-power, but he has a chance to have an above-average hit tool and average power if he maxes out his ability. He also uses his speed on the offensive size of the ball, flashing both stolen base potential and an ability to stretch doubles into triples on balls to the gaps.
WEAKNESSES Rafaela’s approach lags behind a bit. He doesn’t draw many walks, and he posted below-average chase rates last season. That aggressiveness has led to some strikeouts, but he’s maintained acceptable rates. His bat-to-ball skills allow him to make consistent contact, but his tendency to expand the zone also suppresses the quality of his contact. He needs to learn to be more patient to maximize his ability. He also doesn’t hit the ball very hard, showing just average top end exit velocities.
SUMMARY Last season’s breakout has firmly placed Rafaela on the map, and he’s suddenly one of Boston’s very best prospects. There’s a lot of upside across the board for the young outfielder, and his versatility is a plus, but much of his future value will be defined by his bat.
EVALUATOR Cameron Emamian
5. Nick Yorke, 2B - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 45 | 50 | 4 | 45 | High |
PHYSICAL Yorke’s legs and lower half are well-developed, and he’s managed to maintain his athleticism while filling out his frame. He had shoulder surgery while in high school but has otherwise managed to stay healthy. He made some adjustments to his swing during the Arizona Fall League, raising his hands and bat higher to try and help get him to his load position.
STRENGTHS Yorke was drafted on the strength of his hit tool, and he made a quick splash in 2021 while hitting for both contact and power. He struggled in 2022, but his hit tool still projects as above-average. He utilizes a slight leg trigger at the plate before displaying a compact and simple swing that is designed for contact. It’s plus bat speed, which allows him to get into some of his raw power when he puts the ball in the air. He shows a good feel for the strike zone, while also displaying an advanced approach. He does well to not chase pitches out of the zone, and that’s aided by his ability to pick up spin. He’s a contact-over-power hitter, but there’s potentially fringe-average or better game power here. Yorke is an average defender at second base.
WEAKNESSES Yorke’s hit tool regressed in 2022. He struggled to make solid contact and became too pull-happy. The bat-to-ball skills are still there, but he needs to focus on his strengths to rediscover his plus or better hit tool. Yorke is a fringe-average runner and unlikely to run much as he works his way up the ladder. His lack of arm strength also cuts into his defensive position, and he essentially just makes the routine plays at the keystone.
SUMMARY Yorke still has an advanced hit tool and feel at the plate despite some of his regression in 2022. His late season adjustments are something to monitor in terms of his hitting ability. He can be an everyday regular at second base, but he’ll need to either improve his hit tool or maximize his game power to get there. Yorke needs to rebound in 2023.
EVALUATOR Jared Perkins
6. Bryan Mata, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 50
7. Enmanuel Valdez, 2B/3B - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 45 (HOU)
8. Mikey Romero, SS - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 33
9. Eddinson Paulino, SS - 45 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 23 OFP: 40
10. Roman Anthony, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 18 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 61