About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Gunnar Henderson, 3B - 70 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 5 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 55 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Henderson has above-average height and a quality baseball body. He’s lean through his core with a ton of strength throughout his frame, and there might be some remaining projection. He’s a high-level athlete who is still growing into his body and baseball intelligence. He plays with flair and some emotion, and he’s bound to be a fan favorite.
STRENGTHS Henderson excels in all facets of the game and has a chance to be plus across the board. He has plus bat speed and hits the ball hard to all fields, posting elite exit velocities. His raw power has a chance to reach a double-plus grade at peak maturity, and he can get to most of that power during games based on his approach. He’s patient, won’t chase pitches out of the zone, and will force tough at bats until he finds something to drive. There’s still some work to do in terms of maximizing his line drive and fly ball contact, but there’s plenty of time to iron out his swing. He already makes a good amount of contact, and he has the components necessary to also be a future plus hitter. Henderson played all over the infield upon his big league arrival, and his plus arm should keep him on the left side. He has outstanding athleticism in the field and moves well laterally, while also showing a willingness to charge and get down on the ball. The tools probably play best at third base, and there’s plenty of offensive ability here to allow him to profile at the position for years to come. Henderson posted double-plus sprint speeds in 2022, but he’s likely to settle into just an above-average runner.
WEAKNESSES Henderson has a quality approach, but there are some issues with swing and miss and suboptimal contact. He’s still adjusting to professional pitching, and he’s already made significant strides with his bat-to-ball skills since being drafted.
SUMMARY Henderson reached the big leagues in 2022 and barely hung onto prospect eligibility. He’s among the best prospects in baseball and is an early favorite for Rookie of the Year. He is poised to be a long-time big leaguer who makes multiple All-Star appearances, and he has legitimate super star potential. He will be the face of the franchise, if he’s not already.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
2. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP - 60 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 70
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | Moderate |
| 95-99 mph | 81-85 mph | 82-87 mph | 82-86 mph |
PHYSICAL Rodriguez has a textbook pitcher’s build with broad shoulders, long limbs, and good muscle throughout. It’s how a pitcher would be created in a lab, and he’s well filled out with little remaining projection. He’s a good athlete who throws from a three-quarters arm slot and repeats his delivery well. He dealt with a lat strain during 2022 that cost him three months and likely his big league debut.
STRENGTHS The 23-year-old has one of the best arsenals in the entire minor leagues, headlined by a double-plus fastball that he commands well. The pitch has premium velocity and will touch 100 MPH with good spin rates, and it also generates plenty of swing and miss to batters on both sides of the plate. His changeup is a legitimate out pitch for him with crazy movement out of the zone. The slider and curveball also project as plus, and he commands them well and utilizes them in any count to generate whiffs and weak contact. He has plus command of all of his pitches with the stuff and pitchability necessary to work against the best hitters in the world. He is ready to make an impact at the big league level.
WEAKNESSES Rodriguez missed a portion of last season due to a lat strain and injuries are always a fear for pitchers. He performed incredibly well when healthy. He has also yet to consistently work deep into games since being drafted, although he has a durable build and the stuff to make innings short.
SUMMARY Rodriguez is one of the more impressive pitching prospects over the last several years. All of his pitches are plus, and he can mix and match them to strikeout batters and create weak contact. He seems about as big league ready as possible, and he should immediately step into the Orioles rotation and be one of its best pitchers. He has future front-of-the-rotation starter written all over him.
EVALUATOR Rhys White
3. Jackson Holliday, SS - 60 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 3
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 50 | 60 | 60 | 60 | High |
PHYSICAL Holliday surged up draft boards relatively late in the draft cycle and was taken first overall by the Orioles after a tremendous spring that saw him add strength to his frame in addition to setting a new high school hits record. In addition to the big league bloodlines, Holliday has the rare combination of safety as well as upside. His frame still has room to add strength and good weight while maintaining his explosiveness.
STRENGTHS Holliday’s first 90 plate appearances showed how well he commands the zone with 25 walks to 12 strikeouts. It's a plus hit tool. He doesn’t chase and makes plenty of contact in the zone while also showing the potential for above-average power as he matures. He has explosive hands and is a premium athlete with plus speed. He has the hands, range and arm to stick at shortstop, although he also drew some reps at second base during his debut. He could really move quickly through the minor leagues if Baltimore wants to push him, and the team has an outstanding recent track record with young hitters.
WEAKNESSES It’s extremely difficult to find weaknesses in his game, which isn’t surprising as he was just selected first overall. His swing can be a bit flat at times, and it may be difficult to fully tap into all the over-the-fence power without a slight adjustment. He also may end up outgrowing shortstop and moving to third base if he bulks up.
SUMMARY The Orioles handed Holliday a record $8.19 million to sign and keep him from playing for his uncle at Oklahoma State University. With the flip switching to more competitive teams going forward, Holliday could be the cherry on top of the Orioles’ rebuild. He is likely to start 2023 back in Delmarva, where he only played in 12 games last season, but he could move quickly. He’s on the shortlist for possible number one overall prospect come this time next year.
EVALUATOR Matt Thompson
4. Colton Cowser, OF - 55 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Cowser is tall and lean with an athletic build. There’s some room on the frame for moderate physical projection, especially in the lower half. It’s an ideal baseball frame, but he may move to a corner outfield spot if he continues to add weight. At the plate, he stands slightly open and upright and uses a moderate leg kick as his trigger mechanism.
STRENGTHS Cowser is one of the best hitters in the minor leagues with strong contact rates and an excellent feel for the zone. He shows the ability to make contact with all pitch types and locations and will rarely chase. It’s a strong all-fields approach, and he’s adept at using the opposite field for contact. Cowser has posted above-average exit velocities and unlocked additional power as he’s started pulling the ball more, which could take his offensive production to another level. He’s an average runner that should stick in center field, but he could also spend the later years of his career in an outfield corner.
WEAKNESSES It’s nitpicking, but Cowser is likely to be just average in center field in a few years, which puts more pressure on his future power output if he’s moved to a corner. He’s a bit passive at the plate, which can lead to him working behind in the count more than desired. He also struggled against left-handers in his first full season, hitting .194 with only two of his 17 home runs coming off of southpaws.
SUMMARY Cowser finds himself one step away from the major leagues and could conceivably make his big league debut less than two years after being selected fifth overall out of Sam Houston State. The one criticism coming out of college was that he didn’t hit for as much power as expected from such a polished hitter with his pedigree, but he’s made some noticeable changes in his approach in order to hit for more consistent power. Cowser projects to be an above-average regular while hitting at the top of the lineup.
EVALUATOR Matt Thompson
5. Coby Mayo, 3B - 55 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 6 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 60 | 45 | 60 | 40 | High |
PHYSICAL Mayo is a massive young man with a well-structured frame. It’s a muscular build with room to possibly get even stronger. It’s a classic baseball build with old school first base-type strength.
STRENGTHS The 21-year-old has incredible strength for someone so young, and that strength combined with his quick hands allow him to generate plus exit velocities and raw power at the plate. He also shows good plate discipline and posted above-average contact rates last season, particularly before making the jump to Double-A. Mayo projects to have plus game power while also hitting for respectable contact. On the defensive side of the ball, Mayo has very impressive arm strength that is at least plus and potentially double-plus. He can put enough on the ball from any angle to make all of the throws from third base, and that’s almost exclusively where he has played since entering pro ball. He also played two games at first base last season.
WEAKNESSES Mayo’s quick hands at the plate don’t translate into the field, and there are some questions regarding whether he can stick at third base long term. He has the arm strength to make it work, but he’s a fringe-average defender overall, and there’s a chance he could either slide across the infield or move into an outfield corner. His sheer size and lack of quickness might also just push him down the defensive spectrum. His arm would play well in right field. There were also times last season where Mayo looked uncomfortable or off balance at the plate, which may have contributed to his decrease in walks and increase in strikeouts.
SUMMARY Mayo struggled once he reached Double-A, and that might just be from making the jump at midseason and needing some time to adjust. He has massive power potential that could easily vault him into another prospect tier, but there’s work to be done on both sides of the ball. His defensive home remains a question mark, and he also needs to improve upon his ability to reach base.
EVALUATOR Chris O’Day
6. DL Hall, LHP - 55 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 60
7. Connor Norby, 2B - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 11 OFP: 45
8. Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 7 OFP: 55
9. Heston Kjerstad, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 8 OFP: 55
10. Dylan Beavers, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A+
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 38