About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Owen Murphy, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 40
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 50 | Extreme |
| 91-95 mph | 78-81 mph | 85-88 mph | 84-86 mph |
PHYSICAL Murphy has a medium frame with a physical build that’s not common for most teenagers. He was a high level two-way player in high school who was going to play on both sides of the ball at Notre Dame. He’s a very good athlete who moves well and has a quick, clean arm from a three-quarters slot.
STRENGTHS Murphy gets plus carry and shape on an efficient high-spin four-seam fastball, and he has been able to throw it in the zone with great effect so far in his career. It gets swings and dirty looks that you see from the best four-seam fastballs, and it could be an elite pitch if more velocity can be developed. The curveball is the main put away pitch at present, with snappy vertical break and tight shape created by Murphy’s plus ability to spin a breaking ball. The short, hard slider and nascent running changeup have been in Murphy’s back pocket as a pro, but his supination and pronation feel inspires confidence that these offerings can be developed into third time through the order weapons.
WEAKNESSES Murphy is still developing his release point consistency and will occasionally get into funks where he can’t get on top of his arsenal, leading to sailing fastballs and flat hanging curveballs. As a pro, this has manifested itself in walks, which with aggressive baserunners compounds the issue as the young right-hander tries to get back into a rhythm. There’s confidence in the caliber of athlete here to improve repeatability and get his fluid arm and lower half movements on time with each other. His slider and changeup development need to progress, as while there are flashes you can see there’s significantly more confidence and comfort leaning on a heavy diet of fastballs early and curveballs to finish hitters off.
SUMMARY There’s some ambiguity regarding Murphy’s role, but his usage in his pro debut seems to indicate that he’ll strictly be a pitcher moving forward. While there’s always significant variance with prep pitching prospects, Murphy’s athletic ability and arsenal projects him as a mid-rotation starter, with top of the rotation upside if secondary and/or velocity development sticks.
EVALUATOR Will Hoefer
2. AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 16 OFP: 45
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 45 | 40 | High |
| 93-95 mph | 85-88 mph | 84-87 mph |
PHYSICAL Smith-Shawver is tall and filled out with minimal remaining projection. The right-hander has a mature frame that is built for working deep into starts. He has a fast arm and throws from a three-quarters arm slot. There’s some effort in the motion with a tendency to fall off toward first base.
STRENGTHS The 20-year-old has power stuff, headlined by a plus fastball that operates in the mid-90s and touches higher. It’s plus velocity from the right side, and the four-seam fastball has ride at the top of the zone. He shows an ability to work it all over the zone. His slider flashes plus and has a chance to project there long term. It’s firm, thrown in the mid-to-upper-80s, and has late bite. He’s unafraid to throw it in any count, but it’s also his predominant out pitch that he throws with two strikes. He can run it away from right-handers, and it’s equally effective against left-handers when he’s letting it drop out of the zone. His changeup is firm, thrown in the mid-80s, and it has hard armside tail that makes it difficult for left-handed batters to barrel. He does well to eliminate hard contact, and all three pitches show strikeout potential and could see a further grade bump with more command and control.
WEAKNESSES Although he can blow his fastball by hitters, batters can make contact when he’s not hitting his spots. He showed a slight tendency to leave it out over the plate last year. His arm speed is also slower when he’s throwing his changeup. The movement profile helps how it plays, but mature hitters will be able to notice the difference in the delivery and sit back on it. Smith-Shawver’s control is also pretty fringy, and he’s dealt with walk issues since entering pro ball. That throws some relief risk into the profile.
SUMMARY Smith-Shawver has already outpaced his draft pedigree, and he’s firmly among the top prospects in the system. It’s legitimate strikeout stuff across the board that is only hampered by his inconsistent control and command. He’ll continue to operate as a starter, with mid-rotation potential, but he needs to work deeper into games to get there, and that all goes back to throwing strikes.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
3. JR Ritchie, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 40
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 55 | 40 | 50 | High |
| 92-95 mph | 80-84 mph | 80-83 mph |
PHYSICAL Ritchie has an ideal pitcher’s frame that includes broad shoulders, present strength in his arms, and plenty of length. He has some remaining projection, although he’s more physically advanced than most his age. He has a very quick arm and throws from a three-quarters arm slot.
STRENGTHS The right-hander throws four pitches, but it’s the fastball and slider that he regularly incorporates. He shows a good feel for moving his fastball around the zone, and the pitch can touch the mid-90s with some run when used up in the zone. There’s some remaining projection on Ritchie’s frame, and there may be more consistent mid-90s velocity coming now that he’s in a professional development program. His slider has sharp, late break and is best used away from right-handers. He also shows a feel to manipulate its shape into more of a slurve with loopier 10/4 action that is thrown with less firmness than his traditional slider. It was the variation ball that was most effective at generating whiffs. He also throws a changeup with armside fade, although he didn’t incorporate it very often during his professional debut. Ritchie is a strike-thrower whose command has potential with more professional reps.
WEAKNESSES Ritchie is still learning to pitch. He doesn’t incorporate his changeup, and he can also be fastball-dominant at times. His fastball doesn’t have a ton of present movement, and the pitch was susceptible to contact when left over the plate. He reportedly worked on a two-seam variation leading up to the draft, and it’s a movement profile he might need to maximize the fastball grade. He keeps his pitches around the zone, but his present command is fringy.
SUMMARY The 19-year-old performed well during his professional debut, and he’s a potential quick mover in the organization. He has the look of a backend starter, but there might be a touch more upside if he can sustain his mid-90s velocity and take a step forward with his changeup.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
4. Cole Phillips, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: HS
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 113
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 55 | 45 | 50 | High |
| 94-98 mph | 82-86 mph | 85-88 mph |
PHYSICAL Phillips is a lean, projectable pitcher with a lightning fast arm. He has broad shoulders and good length to his limbs. He’s worked on ironing out the effort in his delivery and, while there’s still some there, it was relatively easy in the spring. He pitches downhill well and throws from a three-quarters arm slot. He had Tommy John surgery in April 2022.
STRENGTHS Phillips shot up draft boards like a rocket last spring, coming out of the gates with a massive velocity spike. Originally in the low-90s in the summer of 2021, Phillips began sitting in the mid-90s more consistently, even touching triple digits on occasion. The fastball generates plenty of running life up and down in the zone and consistently misses bats. The slider is thrown in the mid-80s with good two-plane break, flashing plus at times when he’s able to locate it away from right-handed hitters. The changeup was sparsely used in-game, but there’s some fading life and it could be an average offering moving forward. He showcased average command of his arsenal, even with the uptick in velocity.
WEAKNESSES The biggest issue with Phillips is the lack of track record with advanced stuff, which certainly draws concern on how his stuff will perform post-rehab. The slider can be inconsistent at times and become more of a slurve, as well. The changeup will need to see more game action, as most reports suggest it was mainly utilized in bullpens and warmups.
SUMMARY Phillips went from a potential college arm to one of the elite prep arms in the span of roughly six months, and the Braves saw enough of Phillips to take him on Day 1 despite his injury. He likely won’t return to in-game action until August 2023, unless the Braves are cautious with him and hold him out until 2024. He’ll be given every chance to start once he returns.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
5. Braden Shewmake, SS - 45 OFP
Age: 25 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 14 OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 45 | 55 | 55 | 50 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Shewmake comes with a large, wiry frame and an athletic build. Although there is room for him to add strength, he hasn’t put on much weight since being drafted. He stands with a wide, slightly open stance, with a stride towards the mound that is much smaller than it was in college. His swing is relatively smooth, although his bat path is quite flat.
STRENGTHS Shewmake makes plenty of contact in the strike zone, covering the plate well and displaying the ability to spray the ball to all fields with high exit velocities. He began to put the ball in the air more in 2022, so some added strength could lead to more home runs. Shewmake pairs long strides with good instincts both on the bases and in the infield, making up for just average speed and range. He has a strong, accurate arm and a quick transfer.
WEAKNESSES With an aggressive approach, Shewmake doesn’t walk much. Combine that with his lack of power, and his offensive profile is less than exciting. Despite proving to be capable of handling the demands of the shortstop position, he lacks the range of the typical big league shortstop, and could struggle to get to harder hit balls in the hole at the next level.
SUMMARY Shewmake is a high-floor player who should be able to contribute for the Braves on both sides of the ball. Should Vaughn Grissom struggle in 2023, Shewmake could see time as the starting shortstop. If not, he should at least have a future as a utility infielder without a carrying tool.
EVALUATOR Harris Yudin
6. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 13 OFP: 45
7. Adam Maier, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 330
8. Darius Vines, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 18 OFP: 45
9. Dylan Dodd, LHP - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 29 OFP: 40
10. Jared Shuster, LHP - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 19 OFP: 45