The Diamondbacks organization saw their major league team make a massive step forward, and a lot of that was thanks to players they drafted and developed. Now they have another impact prospect who saw some action with the NL representatives of the World Series, in Jordan Lawlar. Druw Jones is still kicking around after injuries and some alarming swing issues. This will be a massive season for his prospect status. The draft was primarily college hitter-heavy early in the draft, headlined by Tommy Troy in the first round. So far, no prospect has undergone the requisite shoulder surgery that most D-backs prospects end up getting, so that is worth celebrating. The desert has waited a while for a competitive team to challenge the Dodgers, and the DBacks are making strides toward that goal with free agency and with the talent they are bringing into the system. With a heavy focus on athleticism, the D-backs' farm system is in a good spot.
About Our Top 30 Lists
Prospects Live, led by its evaluating team, is proud to begin rolling out its annual offseason system reports. The team has meticulously worked on every detail in this list and all future teams, sparing no effort as we combine industry feedback, our live looks, film, and available data to compile each org. We believe this effort has enabled us to present you, the reader, with our best possible list.
We have constructed this list using the Overall Future Potential (OFP) scale. There is no perfect equation for ranking prospects or assigning value to them, but we believe this method is the best possible approach. Every prospect on this list has been graded based on the tried and true 20-80 scouting scale. An 80 is the highest tool and OFP grade on the scale, reserved for MVP-caliber players or tools. Conversely, a 20 is reserved for non-prospects (NPs). A 50 OFP falls in the middle, indicating our evaluators deem this player a future average major league player. Below the 50 OFP tier are the 45s and 40s, comprising a large majority of players on each list. These are specific-role players, such as platoon hitters, utility players, or low-leverage relievers. Above the 50 OFP tier are the 55s and 60s. A 55 represents a future above-average player, and a 60 OFP designation is reserved for future All-Star caliber players.
In addition to the tool grades and OFP, we will also include a 'Risk' associated with each prospect. We use this to better communicate to you, the reader, whether a grade is more aggressive or conservative in nature. The evaluation team has worked painstakingly to apply both the grades and risk components to better illustrate how each individual prospect stacks up in their respective system and in the baseball ecosystem.
This year, we decided to accompany the scouting reports with dynasty commentary on each, as well as quick reference to the player's Top 500 fantasy prospect rank & top 1000 dynasty rank, PLIVE+ metrics and Jordan Rosenblum's peak projections. The PLIVE+ rank noted is the rank among hitters, starters or relievers.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank and First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Jordan Lawlar, SS - 60 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: MLB
2023 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 60
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 9
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 55 | 60 | 55 | 70 | Mod |
Report The Vanderbilt commit never made it to campus as the Diamondbacks selected him sixth overall in the 2021 draft. There was considerable buzz for him to go first overall and his price tag and Vandy commitment slid him to the Diamondbacks who paid him $6.7 million. Lawlar is an athletic shortstop with room for projection on the frame. He has had two major shoulder injuries already during his young professional career, and oddly enough both came on batted balls. In 2021 he tore his labrum and in the fall of 2022, he fractured his left scapula. He came back stronger in 2023 and set a personal best for the number of baseballs hit 95 or higher, calming any concerns about the power upon his return. He’s a twitchy athlete that stands out on both sides of the ball. He has a quick, compact swing that covers the zone very well and gets most of his power by hitting his pitch. He is a plus defender at short with a quick first step, range, and a strong arm. He’s also a prolific base stealer. He had some issues with big league breaking stuff as young hitters tend to do, and his contact percentage was a dangerously low 65% in his small sample. That will improve next season and he should spend most of the season in the big leagues, despite a crowded infield in Arizona at the moment. He has a chance to be an impact player on both sides of the ball and realistically could be similar to Dansby Swanson. - Matt Thompson
Fantasy Outlook Athletic, projectable, and twitchy, Jordan Lawlar is comfortably a top ten prospect in fantasy baseball, ranking seventh in our end-of-season top 500. Since his prep days, Lawlar has been known for his strong contact tool and well-rounded game, complete with great base-stealing knowledge and defensive chops. Lawlar has suffered two major shoulder injuries in his short professional career, but rebounded effectively, showing off his burgeoning power. While he struggled to make contact and track big-league secondaries in his 14-game premiere, Lawlar’s proven to be a player who needs time to ‘adjust’ to a league, so expect a better line (and potentially double-digit HR + SB) next season and beyond. – Drew Wheeler
2. tOMMY tROY, ss - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A+
2023 MLB Draft Rank: 8
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 65
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 50 | 50 | 60 | 55 | Mod |
Report The Diamondbacks got a model darling in Troy. The Stanford product stands just 5’10”, although his lower body has impressive strength and his upper body is broad and filled out. Troy features a moderately high leg kick but his hands stay level below his chin through most of the operation. Troy faces issues when he needs to lower his hands to handle balls below hip height, raising concerns about how well he’ll handle well-executed secondaries in the pros. Anything belt high and above is primed for Troy to get his barrel on, as it’s easier for him to drive his hands. Troy has the upside to be one of the best fastball hitters in pro baseball because his hands are extremely quick. The pure strength, mixed with his hand and bat speed grant Troy plus — and arguably double-plus — raw power. Troy makes a lot of contact in the zone and deploys a mature approach, laying off a lot of pitches on the lower edge and below the zone. Troy isn’t quite a plus runner and he doesn’t profile to be a weapon on the basepaths, although in baseball’s new era, he will steal some bags. Defensively, Troy currently has adequate range to handle shortstop and shows an aptitude to handle difficult hops but his future may lie at third base, where his plus arm profiles well. If Troy can remain smart in his approach and target pitches in the upper two-thirds, he has a chance to get on base at a high rate and hit 30 or more home runs. – Tyler Paddor
Fantasy Outlook While he will get plenty of (apt) love as an FYPD first-rounder, Tommy Troy is one of the better bats through all the minor leagues and ranked 76th on our end-of-season Top 500. Troy has a balanced swing, lightning-quick hands, and a mature approach, choosing to lay off lower-third pitches he cannot punish in favor of those nearer the top of the zone. There is plus raw power, and if the approach sticks, Troy will likely contribute 30 home runs or more – and if his debut comes in the Diamondbacks lineup, there will be ample opportunity for runs and RBI. While he will never be called a ‘rabbit,’ Troy will contribute SBs, only furthering his overall value as a prospect. Troy has top-10 prospect upside and looks like a very valuable piece for fantasy teams. – Drew Wheeler
3. Druw Jones, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2023 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 60
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 94
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 45 | 60 | 55 | 60 | Extreme |
Report Druw Jones is one of the more hyped prep prospects in recent memory, being the son of Druw Jones. Talented like his father, Jones is an explosive runner when in motion. He makes good routes in the outfield, covers a lot of ground, and has quick reactions. His arm is strong, with good zip and accuracy. He will be able to deter baserunners or at least make them consider taking extra bases when on the basepaths. The problem with Jones and the pre-draft evaluations of him is that we think people became overzealous about his offensive skills. He is not, nor will he ever be the 60-hitter or 60-power guy we previously projected him to be. He doesn't always barrel up balls and often hits it into the ground. He currently has below average power, as his maximum exit velocity (EV) is hovering around 107 mph. He does have issues with swinging and missing in the strike zone, especially when facing pitchers who throw with premium velocity up in the zone. Jones demonstrates a solid eye at the plate and should walk a decent amount, but he tends to make aggressive swing decisions. He struggles with reading breaking balls out of the pitchers' hands and has appeared fooled at times. He has plate coverage issues, not always being able to make solid contact with power pitches on the outer third of the strike zone. He had issues with injuries and was generally ineffective at the plate this year. He appeared to be pressing. There is still plenty of time for him to reach the potential that people believed he had before he injured his shoulder. However, at the moment, he is trending towards a defense-first regular who typically bats near the bottom of the lineup. - Rhys White
Fantasy Outlook We feel for everyone who spent a 1.1 pick on Druw Jones over Jackson Holliday. It hurts, we know. If you’re still rostering Jones, you’ve probably wondered multiple times over the last year what to do with him. We think the pendulum has officially swung to the other side and Jones’ value has plummeted enough that he’s entering buy territory. Still widely considered a top 100 fantasy prospect, we recognize the peak 30/30 upside may not exist anymore, but the appeal of a 20/20 guy with okay ratios is still very much in play. - Eddy Almaguert spring training game with a 419 foot bomb. He’s not the first 20 year old to struggle in his first taste of AA, so there is a potential buy low opportunity here. Just be aware there is significant risk in the profile as well. - Taylor Corso
4. Yu-Min Lin, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: AA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 9 OFP: 45
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 110
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 50 | 45 | 60 | 60 | High |
Report The Diamondbacks gave Lin $525,000 in December of 2021 out of Taiwan and he immediately went to work, proving to be too advanced for young hitters at the lower levels with 91 strikeouts to 22 walks in over 53 innings of solid work. Lin has a very small and thin frame, which makes his 121 innings pitched in 2023 all the more impressive. He pitches from a high ¾ arm slot and has plus flexibility and athleticism. The fastball velocity is a cause for legitimate concern, as he typically sits around 89-90 and can touch 94 at times. His best pitch is his changeup which tunnels off the fastball before it drops off the table with a bit of arm-side tumble. His fastball command sets up his arsenal because it is easy plus command, especially to his glove side. He gets a surprising amount of whiffs on his four-seamer and will also mix in a sinker and a cutter. He spins a pair of breaking balls also, and his high spin curveball is better than his sweepy slider, but both have a chance to be above-average pitches. He lacks physical projection but is flush with pitchability and the ability to command and sequence. Some of his closest big league comps velocity-wise are arms like Marco Gonzales and Zach Davies, which doesn’t inspire all that much confidence despite the production. He ran into some issues in his first taste of Double-A and it primarily came from not getting nearly as many whiffs on the fastball as he is accustomed to. We still think Lin can carve out a career as a big league four or five starter, which is still optimistic considering the fastball velocity. - Matt Thompson
Fantasy Outlook Our #122 fantasy prospect, Lin’s dominant age-relative-to-league performance across almost 200 IP throughout his minor league career has made him a projection darling, mediocre fastball velocity notwithstanding. The velocity itself is less of a concern when considering he was holding his own as the youngest arms in Double-A last year, five months younger than the next youngest pitcher, Robby Snelling — and with a better K% minus BB% than Snelling to boot. Typical aging curves have him adding a bit more velocity as he ages, which should give his stuff enough juice to do work at the major league level as early as 2024. - Jordan Rosenblum
5. Jansel Luis, 2B/SS - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2023 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 222
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 55 | Mod |
Report The Diamondbacks signed Luis for $525,000 as part of their 2022 international free agent class. It was one full of high-priced infielders, but Luis was the first of the group to advance beyond the complex levels. He performed very well in his 25-game stint at the complex, hitting .297/.381/.495 before advancing to full-season ball at 18 years old. Luis is a switch-hitter with impressive bat-to-ball from both sides and growing power. We think eventually he could have plus power as he develops and while he has more natural power from the left side he should be as platoon neutral as it gets for a switch-hitter. He’s a very aggressive hitter looking to swing early in the counts so making any concrete statements about his approach is not something we feel strongly about. We did see him chase some pitches, mostly soft stuff below the zone, but it was clear he was looking for a fastball in those situations which were early in the count. He especially chased more out of the zone as he climbed to Single-A, as you might expect. He projects as a nice hit over power middle infielder though, and he will start popping up on T100 lists sometime next year. He’s probably a second baseman though which does bring his value down a bit, and players this young that tend to start moving off of short often end up elsewhere. - Matt Thompson
Fantasy Outlook Luis built on his promising DSL debut in 2022 with a very strong showing over two stops (CPX/Single-A) in 2023. He has the potential to impact all five fantasy categories if he can continue to develop his power; this is extremely valuable at the second base position. In 2024, Luis started pulling more fly balls and in combination with gaining some more good weight, he should get to at least, average power. He also has above-average speed which should translate into a healthy amount of steals (16/20 in 255 PA). Luis is a prospect on the rise — grab him while he is relatively unknown. - Greg Hoogkamp
6. Ricardo Yan, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A+
2023 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 350
7. Dylan Ray, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2023 Pre-season Rank: “Just Missed”
Dynasty Prospect Rank: NR
8. Gino Groover, 1B/3B - 45 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A+
2023 MLB Draft Rank: 42
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 338
9. Ivan Melendez, 3B/1B - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AA
2023 Pre-season Rank: 13 OFP: 45
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 182
10. Jack Hurley, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A+
2023 MLB Draft Rank: 35
Dynasty Prospect Rank: NR