About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Corbin Carroll, OF - 70 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 60
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 70 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Carroll has average height and a wiry frame, but there’s sneaky strength in both his upper and lower half. Very athletic movements on the field, and he’s an excellent runner with strong quick twitch muscles and instincts.
STRENGTHS Carroll is not limited by his lack of size, as his freak athleticism allows him to be good on both sides of the ball. He takes an upright stance in the box and a line drive swing led by a toe tap that produces tons of excellent contact. He hits the ball well to all fields, and he has plenty of power despite a more contact-oriented approach. He posted plus-plus exit velocities in 2022, and he particularly hammers pitches low in the zone. His keen eye means he can discern when to swing at pitches in or near the zone. It’s a mature approach that allows him to see a lot of pitches to drive, and the early results during his big league debut were very promising. He’s a rangy outfielder thanks to his speed and first step quickness, and even occasional bad routes are made up by his plus-plus foot speed.
WEAKNESSES Carroll’s issues have less to do with skills and more to do with his health and physical size. He missed most of 2021 following shoulder surgery. He stayed on the field in 2022, but there are some questions about his frame and whether it can hold up over a 162 game season. There are also some concerns about how his power will play, but so far so good, and he’s managed to surpass his power expectation at every stop. Carroll also posted some chase tendencies in the minors, and he struck out 27% of the time during his big league debut. He has the natural ability to overcome those early metrics, but there is some aggressiveness to his game.
SUMMARY This is a premium true center fielder that could be huge for Arizona’s future. He’s an incredibly well-rounded prospect, and there’s very little doubt that he’ll be a big league starter. The potential exists for him to play in plenty of All-Star games in the future.
EVALUATOR Cameron Emamian
2. Jordan Lawlar, SS - 60 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 60 | 60 | 60 | High |
PHYSICAL Lawlar has an athletic build with some projection left on the frame. He’s pretty wiry but doesn’t lack strength. Twitchy athlete on both sides of the ball. Lawlar suffered a fractured left scapula during the Arizona Fall League and will likely miss the beginning of 2023. This injury came from the impact of a ball, but it’s worth noting it’s the same shoulder that sustained a labrum tear in 2021.
STRENGTHS Lawlar’s strength is largely just the game of baseball. He has a quick, compact swing with excellent zone coverage. He shows a good feel for the zone, drawing plenty of walks. Overall, he’s a twitchy athlete who can produce easy power to all fields that should play above-average in game. He backed that up with above-average exit velocities in 2022. He reacts well and can make difficult plays on the defensive side of the ball. He has a plus arm, which should let him stick at shortstop long term. His ability to run plays on both sides of the ball, and he showed substantial feel and stolen base potential across four levels in 2022.
WEAKNESSES There are still some tendencies to chase pitches and some elements of swing and miss, but even those are fairly minimal. There is some room to add to the frame, which may take some speed away, but that’s still to be determined and his overall athleticism should remain intact regardless. His season has now ended in injury in consecutive seasons, and his ability to stay healthy is at least a question that needs answered. His tools are already very refined for his age, and it’s difficult to find a fault.
SUMMARY This is one of the best prospects in baseball. It’s rare for a player to have the potential for five tools that are above-average and many of Lawlar’s tools project to be plus. He’s already exceeding his original projections, which is impressive given both his pedigree and his young age. There is every possibility that Lawlar winds up being the best player from his draft class, with the potential to be a long term impact player on both sides of the ball.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
3. Druw Jones, OF - 60 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: HS
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 1
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 70 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Jones has a premium body for a teenager that is both very tall and lean. He’s high-waisted with broad shoulders, and he’s very twitchy and athletic. He possesses the highest level of bloodlines, with his dad being a five-time All-Star and ten-time Gold Glove winner.
STRENGTHS Jones has big, plus bat speed, and the ball jumps off the bat when he finds the barrel. He’s a plus-plus runner at present, and there’s an expectation that he will add 20-30 pounds of muscle and settle in as a plus runner during his team control years. He covers a ton of ground in the outfield with ease and long steps, and this speed also plays on the basepaths. He has plus-plus arm strength, and his rocket throws could play in a big league outfield today. He’s bound to rack up outfield assists, and his combination of arm strength and range give him a plus defensive ceiling. He shows a quick first step and preternatural instincts in the outfield grass.
WEAKNESSES The quality of his contact comes and goes, and he can get beat on occasion with more premium stuff. However, these struggles don’t last for long, and he’s consistently making adjustments to overcome any issues, something that his track record on the summer circuit bore year after year. Some of the mechanics in his lower half will need to be ironed out, particularly his proclivity to step into the bucket when lifting the ball. There’s an expectation he’ll become a big all-fields power threat as he grows into his body and consistently impacts the ball, but there is some work to be done there.
SUMMARY Jones has a legitimate superstar ceiling. He can be a true five-tool player who checks boxes across the board, and there’s a reason he was widely seen as the best player from his prep class. Jones suffered a left posterior labrum team while taking batting practice shortly after signing his contract, but he’s expected to make a full recovery and be ready to go in the spring.
EVALUATOR Will Hoefer
4. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 8 OFP: 50
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 45 | 60 | 50 | 55 | High |
| 92-95 mph | 77-80 mph | 81-84 mph | 85-88 mph |
PHYSICAL Pfaadt has a tall frame with a high waist. His frame is maxed out after adding 20 pounds of weight prior to the 2022 season. He has a quick, whippy arm action and throws from a low three-quarters arm slot. Mobile upper half. There’s effort and a head whack in the delivery, but he repeats it well. There was noticeably less effort in his delivery towards the end of the season.
STRENGTHS Above-average command helps the entire arsenal play up. He doesn’t walk many people, and he showed put away ability in 2022 while leading the entire minor leagues in strikeouts. His slider has a tight, two-plane break and garners a lot of swing and miss. It’s a legitimate strikeout weapon. Pfaadt’s fastball plays well to the top of the zone. His changeup has a lot of armside fade to the bottom of the zone, and the pitch can flash above-average. He shows feel to sequence and, despite the effort, still projects as a rotation arm.
WEAKNESSES There is inconsistency with the changeup. He can catch a lot of the zone, causing it to firm up and become too hittable. He has thrown a curveball in the past, but he didn’t seem to throw it much in 2022. It’s more of a change of pace pitch than one thrown to get outs.
SUMMARY The former Division II arm has blossomed into a good pitching prospect for the Diamondbacks. His foundation has always been excellent command, and he’s added an arsenal of good pitches to raise his profile. Led by his fastball and slider, he can pound the zone and get whiffs on both of those pitches. When his changeup is at its best, it’s a potential whiff pitch, too. He projects as a potential mid-rotation arm.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
5. Drey Jameson, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 25 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 50
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 50 | High |
| 92-99 mph | 75-79 mph | 83-87 mph | 85-89 mph |
PHYSICAL Jameson’s athletic motions allow him to reach great velocities on the mound despite being smaller in stature. At times, his arm will trail behind and struggles to stay on top of the ball, but for the most part, he repeats his motion well.
STRENGTHS Jameson possesses two plus pitches: his fastball and his slider. The fastball runs up to triple digits and sits in the high 90s with a lot of life. At times, he throws more of a sinker than a traditional fastball. The two fastballs complement each other when he works the four-seam up in the zone and the sinker low. His four-seamer touches 100 MPH, although hitters struggle to catch up to both pitches. The slider has good downward action, and he adds and subtracts horizontal break to it, sometimes getting more around the pitch. The breaker and the fastball move in opposite directions and tunnel well, making them a lethal combination. His curveball and changeup serve as his secondary offerings and act as good changes of pace, especially when located low in the zone.
WEAKNESSES Jameson struggles to command the ball at times, letting it sail to the top of the zone. This issue causes him to fail behind in the count and is especially prevalent with his changeup. With his smaller stature, the question also exists about how he will be able to hold up for the duration of a longer start. His velocity trails off slightly as the game goes on, and he becomes less sharp.
SUMMARY In his brief stint in the Major Leagues at the end of the season, Jameson impressed with a 1.48 ERA in 24.1 innings. His fastball and slider combo points to a lot of potential, but to take the next step and establish himself as a middle-of-the-rotation arm, he will need to further develop his secondary offerings, sharpen his command, and prove he can hold up over a larger workload.
EVALUATOR Daniel Garcia
6. Ryne Nelson, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 25 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 7 OFP: 50
7. Landon Sims, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 53
8. Blake Walston, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 6 OFP: 50
9. Yu-Min Lin, LHP - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
10. A.J. Vukovich, 3B - 45 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 13 OFP: 45