As we wind down the MiLB season, we’re continuing our look at initial data from 2024 first rounds bats. While prospects are at the end of what is likely their most grueling season of baseball to date, their first handful of games give us an idea of what kind of hitters these prospects may be as professionals.
All of these reports and write ups continue to draw on relatively small sample sizes, many of them for prospects playing by far their most grueling year of baseball to date, so temper any significant conclusions drawn.
NOTE: All data for prospects was pulled prior to games on 09.19.24
Seaver King, 10th Overall, Nationals, A
Slash Line: .295/.367/.385 (.751)
14.4 K%, 10 BB%
76.9% Contact%
.330 xWOBA
King was a player for whom the perceived range of outcomes on draft day was wide. Endless physical tools are counterbalanced by rawness and a limited track record playing at the top level of college baseball. King fits the preferred Mike Rizzo archetype to a tee, though. In recent years, the Nationals have been an organization that prioritizes raw athleticism.
King got off to a strong start for Single-A Fredericksburg, showing a good blend of hitability with bat speed and hand-eye coordination that make him a difficult out at the plate. While King didn’t access much extra base impact in his 20-game debut, he looks an extra-base hit barrage away from being High A ready.
James Tibbs III, 13th Overall, Giants, A+
Slash Line: .241/.293/.343 (.636)
31 K%, 6.9 BB%
67.9% Contact%
.281 xWOBA
Tibbs was among the most speculated upon names in the rumor mill leading up to draft day. Rumors abound that he could jump into the top ten as a selection of the Angels or Pirates. He ended up going 13th, which feels just right to the Giants, who have to be thrilled with their Tibbs and Dakota Jordan twin outfield selections.
Tibbs demolished Low A in a 9 game debut, hitting .415/.429/.512 (.941), before coming back down to earth in a 17 game stretch at High A Eugene (.455 OPS). For a number of these college hitters, I’d point to their most extended season of baseball to date, rather than any performance-related orange flags as the reason for some erosion in their late season performance. Tibbs should be back at High A to start the 2025 season.
Cam Smith, 14th Overall, Cubs, AA
Slash Line: .313/.396/.609 (1.004)
17.9 K%, 11.2 BB%
.296 ISO
77.1% Contact%
.414 xWOBA
The Cubs aren’t afraid of doing some swing work with their draftees, selecting Cam Smith and Cole Mathis with their first two picks in the 2024 draft. Like Chase Davis in 2023, Cam Smith had an argument as the most improved hitter in college baseball after a monster season and College World Series berth with Florida State.
Smith carried that momentum into his professional debut, earning promotions to Myrtle Beach and Tennessee in arguably the most impressive debut of any 2024 hitter. Smith showed a mature approach, taking plenty of free passes to minimize strikeouts. Most impressively, he continued to access extra base offensive impact, posting an absurd .296 ISO and 5.2% HR%. It’s incredibly early days, but Smith appears to be a complete hitter, with an enviable blend of an excellent approach, good bat-to-ball skills, and legitimate and consistent extra base power.
Carson Benge, 19th Overall, Mets, A
Slash Line: .273/.420/.426 (.857)
20.3 K%, 15.9 BB%
81.3% Contact%
9.1% InZoneWhiff%
23.2% Chase%
102.2 mph 90thExitVel
35.9% Hit95+%
.339 xWOBA
Benge was a prospect who seemed to have a quiet pre-draft process after an excellent 2023 college season. He was part of a deep cluster of college hitters in the mid-to-late first round. Spending his entire 15 game debut at Low A St. Lucie, the strength of Benge’s first impression points to how exciting a bat he may become.
Benge walked just south of 16% of the time in his debut, with excellent bat-to-ball skills to boot. His 9.1% InZoneWhiff% was eighth best in Low A among prospects who played at least 15 games. Additionally, Benge made high quality contact, his 90th percentile exit velocity and percentage of batted ball events hit 95 mph or greater were both above average for the level. All this production was in spite of Benge running a 51.2% Ground% and an average launch angle of just 2.1 degrees (11 degrees is average for Low A).
Benge is off to an excellent start. If he can lift the ball more consistently, he’ll unlock even more offensive impact.
Notes: Braylon Payne (17th pick), was a somewhat surprising selection at 17th overall. What wasn’t surprising was that he was taken by the Brewers, an organization that tends to zag when everyone else zigs. Payne put up a 1.151 OPS in a brief spell in A ball to finish the season, melting a baseball with an exit velocity of over 110mph. Theo Gillen, the Rays smooth-swinging infielder (18th overall pick) managed a .545 OPS in just 34 plate appearances at Charleston. He’ll likely start the 2025 season in A ball.