I was able to catch two games of this series, with the second game featuring two of each organization's top starting pitcher prospects. Fort Myers is a lot more loaded than Tampa is with top prospects, and that became apparent as they mostly dominated Tampa in this series, aside from the extremely lopsided 17-9 Tampa win on Thursday night.
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
OF Walker Jenkins (4-for-17, 2B, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 3 K, .235/.409/.294/.703)
Jenkins was selected 5th overall by the Twins as their 1st round draft pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of South Brunswick HS in North Carolina. Jenkins started the season a little later than most because of a left hamstring strain, and made his season debut in Low-A with Fort Myers in this series in Tampa.
Jenkins wasn’t overly impressive to me in this series regarding his bat, despite hitting .393 in 9 games while on rehab in FCL but did make a few nice plays. Everything looks average to him, but that may be expected considering he was drafted out of high school, and those prospects sometimes take some time to get going.
Jenkins will spend the entirety of the 2024 season in his age 19 year (turns 20 in Feb 2025), and between that and considering he was drafted straight out of high school, he should be given a bit of a long runway to get Low-A sorted before we rush to judgment. The tools are there, he just has to put them all together, and I think he’ll be a fun prospect to follow down the line.
RHP Charlee Soto (3 IP – 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 HR; Game ERA 12.00)
Charlee Soto was the Twins CB-A pick in the 2023 MLB Draft (34th overall), and was selected out of Reborn Christian High School near Orlando, FL.
Soto was not impressive at all in this outing, especially in the 2nd inning where he faced 6 batters and allowed an inside-the-park home run that ricocheted off the center field wall to Willy Montero and a 2-run home run by Roderick Arias to right field.
The righty thrower’s control was what was off, in my opinion, as the pitches he threw had good shape (especially the changeup) and his velo reached 97.5 MPH twice according to Baseball Savant. Only 40% of the 65 pitches thrown by Soto landed in the strike zone, and he had an opposing batting average of .313. That said, Soto did strike out 1/4 of the batters he faced (4 of 16).
I can’t tell if he had trouble gripping the ball considering the high humidity that night, but Luis Serna with Tampa didn’t seem to have trouble. As the game progressed, he got more and more frustrated, and especially so after that previously mentioned 2nd inning.
Soto ended the night with a season ERA of 7.31 as this sort of appearance seems to be a regular thing, outside of a nearly perfect appearance early in the year as an anomaly.
Brandon Winokur (6-for-20; 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K, 2 SB, 0 CS, HBP; .300/.231/.650/.881)
While Winokur was on my radar for this series as a prospect to watch, he didn’t necessarily blow me away as I may have anticipated. That seems to have been a trend with the prospects I saw from the most recent draft class. That doesn’t mean that the 5 games he played in weren’t impressive, and the fact that he was drafted straight out of high school should be an important factor to remember as well. He will play the entirety of the 2024 season in his age 19 year.
The concern with Winokur’s high swing and miss is valid; he had nearly as many strikeouts as he did hits, but he did show off his power with 2 home runs, with both being an oppo taco against the same pitcher (Cade Smith) in two different games.
Nothing remarkable stood out about his defense, which is neither good nor bad. He was able to turn double plays and didn’t commit any errors in the two games I saw. He did however commit a fielding error at SS and throwing error when he played 3B (intended to throw a ball to 2B for a force out but ended up in RF), so that may be something to follow as he’s been touted as having a plus arm. No qualms with the arm strength though, and I wouldn’t be surprised if with his speed and arm that the Twins decide a move to the outfield may be in order.
Payton Eeles (5-for-13; 3B, HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB, 5 K, 1 SB, 0 CS; .385/.278/.769/1.047)
Only signed about a month ago out of Coastal Carolina, Eeles was absolutely not on my radar, but definitely is now. He’s a “total package” kind of prospect. I wouldn’t necessarily go so far to say five-tool, but he’s quick, has a loud bat and can play the infield well.
Eeles is smaller in size at only 5-foot-7, but don’t let that frame fool you. He hit a grand slam on June 8th that went 383 feet, was 106 MPH off the bat and absolutely changed the dynamic of the game. In that same game, Eeles hit a lead-off triple that took 11 seconds for him to get from home to 3rd (he slid into 3B).
For my Yankees readers, a good comp I can give would be like Jared Serna. Both have the same kind of small frame, are solid middle infielders, have a loud bat and have insane plus or better speed.
Looking at Eeles’ fielding stats outside of what he played in Tampa, he plays 2B, 3B, SS and RF, so it seems they’re trying to find the right fit for him, but he’s spent the most time at 2B, putting him more inline with the Serna comp.
Eeles can’t possibly last too much longer in Low-A with the way he’s attacking the ball and should be up in Cedar Rapids by or around the All-Star Break, if not sooner.
Odds and Ends:
I was surprised to see that the Twins had picked up 1B Rixon Wingrove after he had been released by the Phillies. He played most of 2023 in High-A Jersey Shore and hit .246 there, but had trouble in AA Reading. Despite doing rather well in his native Australia in the off-season in the Australian Winter League, Wingrove is well under the Mendoza line and went 3-for-19 (.158) during this series in Tampa.
C Jair Camargo had a rehab assignment while with Fort Myers during this series (has since been returned to AAA St. Paul) and batted 6-for-19 (.316) in 5 games played. Short of the one game where he went 3-for-4, he did not impress me like a AAA/MLBer should have, in my opinion. Tampa was able to steal plenty of bases off of Camargo, 8 in fact, including a stolen home plate in Friday’s game. Not one runner was caught stealing during this series, despite having a sub 1.90s pop time to 2B.
Tampa Tarpons
RHP Luis Serna (5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 0 HR; 1.69 Game ERA)
Many of you may have first seen Luis Serna in the second of the two games the Yankees spent in Mexico City this past March, as he started for the Yankees in his homeland in that game (his cousin Jared was behind him at 2B). He was able to showcase the changeup the Yankees internally say is the best in the organization. Serna also showed off that changeup in this Saturday night start and he threw one of his best games of the season against Fort Myers. This is the same pitcher I saw last year in the Florida Complex League after his first few starts in Low-A had had me really concerned.
Nearly half (35 out of 83) of the pitches thrown by Serna in this game were that changeup, and between that, the slider, and the sinker, he has a solid arsenal of pitches if he can refine his control just that much more. Serna doesn’t necessarily throw heat, with that sinker maxing out at 94 MPH, but he uses that pitch more to fool batters as he switches between that and the two off-speed pitches.
Serna’s changeup comes in and tails off away from his throwing hand, and the slider does the opposite, while the sinker has a teeny bit of late ride.
Serna had an opposing batting average of .100 in this game and struck out 40% of the batters he faced, while only walking 10% of batters faced.
INF Roderick Arias (9-for-26; 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 3 BB, 11 K, 1 SB, 0 CS; .346/.257/.808/1.065)
Arias was selected by the Yankees as their top international IFA selection in 2022 out of the Dominican Republic. He had a monster week in this series, including one game (I didn’t attend this unfortunately) where he went 3-for-6 and recorded 6 RBI, including a 3-run home run. Arias has only performed this well of late, as for the month of may he only batted .189. In fact, Arias hit more home runs (2) in this series than he had in all previous games this season combined, and improved his slugging percentage from .319 to .379 by the end of the series. Arias was also able to run out a triple in under 13 seconds.
I’ve noticed a lot of similarities regarding offense between Arias and fellow Dominican switch-hitting prospect Jasson Dominguez. While in Tampa, both bat better on the left side of the plate and both struggled offensively early in the season, only to get going around June or July. One area where Arias separates from Dominguez is the amount of errors.
Arias had 3 throwing errors in this series, adding to the other 14 errors he’s committed so far this season for a total of 17. I wouldn’t necessarily say that the quality of defense isn’t there, but it’s not as mature as you may expect for a top international prospect.
It’s good to see the bat finally start to come around, but I’m concerned about the defense, despite spending the entire year at age 19. Again, he was been able to turn some really nice plays during this series, but the arm with all the fielding errors he had this series (and throughout the season) is a concern.
INF George Lombard Jr. (4-for-22; 2 2B, 1 RBI, 5 BB, 8 K, 2 SB, 0 CS; .182/.154/.273/.427)
Lombard was the Yankees 1st round selection in the 2023 Draft, and was selected out of Gulliver Prep in southeast Florida. Having just turned 19 two days before this series started, there’s still lots of time to play with as Lombard gets settled in to pro ball.
Lombard has been struggling both offensively and defensively all season, but especially in this series against Fort Myers. Lombard looked lost at the plate all series, striking out in more than 1/3 of at-bats, and part of me is getting worried. Using another 1st rounder for comparison, Max Clark had a similar start to the season, but is tearing the leather off the ball in Lakeland. You can’t necessarily say the same for Lombard. I’m surprised looking at his stats actually that he hasn’t hit a pro home run yet.
Lombard committed 3 errors in this series, 2 fielding and 1 throwing error. One of the fielding errors came on the first play of Wednesday’s game where he bobbled a grounder like a hot potato, unable to accommodate the bad hop off the mound and wasn’t able to get the throw off in time.
I am pleased to see that Lombard has plus speed, as I timed him in one play where he hustled down to first in 4.2 seconds, and I’m sure the bat, power and defense will come around before too long.
OF Willy Montero (10-for-20; 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 K, 1 SB, 0 CS; .455/.313/.864/1.177)
Probably the biggest surprise of this series was seeing the offense that Willy Montero was producing considering he’s mostly not been much of a prospect. Montero has been the hottest hitter on the team, even over Arias, in this series as well as in June.
This is something that has been long coming for Montero, who has shown some flashes of consistency previously, but nothing to this extent.
Montero is one of the better outfielders for Tampa, and given his offensive performance last season in FCL, he may be a sleeper prospect ready to truly catch some attention. Montero is not on any Top 30 list that I’ve been able to look at, so if he keeps this performance up, that may change.
Odds and Ends:
Tampa had two rehabbing prospects during this series: OF Christopher Familia and INF Max Burt. Familia has the more impressive bat between the two, which is not encouraging for Burt considering he’s in Double-A and has been with the org for nearly 7 years (2018, 28th Round). Familia ended his rehab stint with Tampa with a .318/.347/.727/1.075 (7-for-22, with a 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB and 5 K), while Burt went 3-for-14, all 3 hits being doubles; .214/.267/.429/.696.
Familia has long been on my radar, dating back to 2022 when he was impressive in FCL. His power is easily one of the more impressive tools; over one quarter of his hits in 2022 and 2023 (33 of 126) were home runs.
If there was ever a Juan Soto-like prospect in the Yankees farm system, Familia is it. Lefty bat that hits for power and is a solid defender as well? Sign me up.
Burt has been a consistent .230+ hitter, but has been unable to get past Double-A Somerset for one reason or another. He’s off to an extremely poor start, even considering his rehab stint with Tampa, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was let go in some fashion, whether via trade or otherwise.