Topps Series 2 is here, and when the first checklist details started leaking out, it was a bit disappointing to see Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill (from here on, the Jackson 3), and Wyatt Langford as auto-only cards. Now with the Jackson 3 and Langford base short prints making their way into the public eye, things just got a whole lot more interesting. Let’s dive into all the rookies with a base rookie card in the product.
We classify rookies in two ways - a Tier ranking and a Ceiling grade, all within the context of the baseball card collecting hobby.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Ceiling Grade
Ceiling has been assigned to each player to provide a quick glimpse into their hobby impact.
Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, the reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc).
Additional Info
Typically I don’t write up rookies that do not have a base rookie card in the product, but do have autos and/or inserts. The main ones in this bucket are the Jackson 3 and Wyatt Langford. In those cases, I’ll be making an exception, but won’t be discussing any others that may be in the checklist given I will be doing so come 2024 Topps Update Series Preview time.
Topps has been a lot better about getting us the checklists for their major releases far in advance of the actual release, but for some reason this was not the case for Series 2. Barely a week before release is finally when it started to show up which sadly means this Product Preview will be less in depth than what I normally would do - Thanks Topps!
What does bear mentioning outside of the norm is that while there are various rookie chase cards in Series 2, Topps has added some significant non-baseball juice to the chase with their exclusive autograph deals with CJ Stroud (Houston Texans Quarterback) and Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs Forward/Center). Stroud will have a Play Ball base and Play Ball autograph card with the Houston Astros team designation, along with a dual auto with Victor Wembanyama (New York Yankees team designation). Not on the checklist (Topps continues to think it’s cute to not provide a comprehensive checklist), but teased on Topps’ social media, is also a First Pitch Auto of Wemby.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Jordan Lawlar, SS, 21
The Diamondbacks top prospect is right on the borderline of Tier 1 and Tier 2 for me, but ultimately the lack of playing time due to recovery from off-season thumb surgery and some lingering hit tool questions have me lean Tier 2 in the short term. It’s also hard to forget two shoulder injuries as he was coming up through the minors and wonder if there are more in the future.
Called up in September of last year, Lawlar didn’t do much with his 14 games of MLB action. The majority of his time in 2023, however, was spent in Double-A where he turned in pretty good stats, but not great stats. He hit .263/.366/.474 with 15 home runs and 33 steals in 89 games. His home ballpark, Amarillo, is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in Double-A, so you have to be careful of the top line stats. The swing rate numbers were pretty much all in the average range, which isn’t what I wanted to see from someone I was considering for Tier 1. Some of those numbers were a zone contact of 79%, an outside the zone swing rate of 34%, a swinging strike rate of 12%, and a whiff rate of 27%.
Ultimately Lawlar has the pedigree of a Tier 1 bat - a Top 10 pick that was in consideration for the top overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, a Top 10 - 20 overall prospect at the moment across most prospect ranking sites, and the top prospect in his org. He’s got the power, he’s got the speed, and it really boils down to if he can hit enough. Couple the hit tool concerns with the injury concerns and the hobby “what have you done for me lately” mindset pushes him down into Tier 2 with a top of the scale Tier 1 Ceiling. Ceiling 10
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Bryce Jarvis, P, 26
The Diamondbacks first round pick in the more and more disappointing by the day 2020 MLB Draft, Jarvis has transitioned from a middle to back-end rotation arm to a multi-inning bullpen guy as he’s worked up to an MLB role. Jarvis is held back by his lack of consistent command, and that is what will keep him out of high leverage bullpen work or even more-so starter work. I just happened to be watching his most recent outing (as of writing) and he easily breezed through the first two batters in a low leverage 8th inning with a 6 run lead, then gave up back to back walks followed by a three run home run on a hanging change-up to Mike Yastrzemski. The stuff is there, the command is not. At some point if he finds the command, there could be some mild interest but it’s a stretch to see it at the moment. Ceiling 3
Andrew Saalfrank, P, 26
Prior to June, the story with Saalfrank was simply that he was a two pitch, soft-tossing lefty reliever with a last name that was a strangely spelled combination of two first names. Coming to present-day, Saalfrank was one of the four players given one year bans for betting on MLB games. In Saalfrank’s case, these bets were placed while he was on the injured list in the minor leagues in 2021-2022. A total of 28 bets for less than $500 wagered ended up costing him a lot more money. Hopefully at some point in the future his on the field performance will lessen the association that his name has with this off the field story. However, given his skills and role, that will be a tough mountain to climb. Ceiling 1
Slade Cecconi, P, 24
After Jarvis, the Diamondbacks selected Cecconi at 33rd overall in the Comp-A round of the 2020 MLB Draft. And like Jarvis, the projections have yet to be met. Unlike Jarvis, however, Cecconi has somehow been able to maintain a starter’s role, at least for now.
At his best, Cecconi is a mid-rotation type with a four pitch mix that can get a strikeout or more per inning and reach back to hit 97 with his heater, although it normally sits around 94. The fastball is the pitch he leans on most, throwing it easily over half the time, with a slider, curve-ball, and change-up comprising the secondaries. All three of those pitches look very similar north to south pitches, just living in different velocity zones, which could be effective if he had enough control to make it all work. At the moment, the command is very inconsistent, and his fastball too enough gets hit hard.
Surprisingly, he’s somehow made a very hitter friendly Triple-A environment work in his favor this year, but that may just be small sample size tricks being played. Previously his minor league numbers and his few short opportunities at the MLB level have been very underwhelming. There’s still an outside shot that Cecconi finds a long term rotation home and at the moment, due to rotation injuries in Arizona (Gallen, Kelly, and E-Rod are all on the IL), he has a short term window of opportunity to make some noise. A back-end rotation type with definite bullpen risk is the current profile, and that will get into Tier None without some other added context, which Cecconi doesn’t really have since he’s significantly fallen down overall and team lists. There is a bit higher of a Ceiling as the peak SP3 outcome still has some small chance of being reached. Ceiling 5
Atlanta Braves
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Forrest Wall, OF, 28
Once upon a time, Wall had some prospect pedigree, having been drafted 35th overall as a prep second baseman by the Rockies in the 2014 draft. After multiple shoulder surgeries and the projected hit tool never really materializing, Wall fell off of Rockies prospect lists by 2018, at which point he was traded mid-season to the Blue Jays for reliever Seunghwan Oh. Wall eventually bounced around to the Mariners and finally the Braves on minor league free agent deals, finally debuting as in 2023 in Atlanta. At this point, Wall is essentially outfield org depth that can provide speed on the base-paths - he’s stolen 52 bases in back to back years in 2022 and 2023 at the Triple-A level. I can’t see a ton of Hobby interest, even if his name does evoke a scene from Robin Hood or something along those lines. Ceiling 2
Darius Vines, P, 26
A classic 5th/6th starter that can give you bulk innings one way or another. Doesn’t have a ton of high end stuff, but throws plenty of pitches with different looks and lives around the zone. Throws a four seamer around 90-91, cutter, change-up, and slider. A curve-ball also shows up on occasion. The change-up and slider are his best pitches with the slider being the main whiff inducer. Vines hasn’t had much success at the MLB level and has been more of a Plan B, Plan C, Plan D, or whatever Plan the Braves are on given all of their regularly scheduled starting rotation injuries. Not much to get interested with in the profile other than he’s on a collectable and competitive team and could end up catching some short term lightning in a bottle because of it. Ceiling 3
Allan Winans, P, 28
Copy Darius Vines write-up, Paste Darius Vines write-up. The main difference is the approach, but both are soft tossing back-end starter swing-man type. Winans leans a lot more on his change-up, throwing easily more than any of his other offerings. That’s usually not a recipe for success, as the name of the pitch implies. It’s supposed to be a “change” from what batters are used to seeing, typically a fastball, and essentially fooling them into believing it’s a heater when it’s not, causing them to swing early and over the change-up. Similar to Vines (I did say Copy/Paste), Winans has not seen much success in his small MLB opportunities. Even less to hang your Hobby hat on than Vines, interest in Winans should be minimal. Ceiling 2
J.P. Martínez, OF, 28
A high profile International Free Agent signing out of Cuba in 2018 by the Rangers for $2.8M as a power speed outfielder. He never seemed to put it altogether and it was mostly held back by the hit tool. Even when it looked like he was putting up strong top level numbers in Triple-A last year, the swing and contact rates were all average or below average. A 133 wRC+ was hiding a sub-80% zone contact rate and below 50th percentile exit velocity ratings anyway you slice it (average, 90th percentile, and max).
A small sample debut at the end of last season with the Rangers didn’t lead to much production and the Rangers finally moved on in the off-season, trading him to the Braves to clear a 40 man spot and getting a minor league reliever in return. With the openings in the Atlanta outfield, JPM will likely get an extended look to see if he can fill at least a strong side platoon role, which is basically his profile moving forward. A speed asset that may pop a few out of the park and hit under .250 in a part time, outfield depth role isn’t enough to drive Hobby interest, even with the prospect pedigree he had half a decade ago. Ceiling 4
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Tier 1
Jackson Holliday*, SS, 20
Part of the Big 4 rookies getting a base rookie card Short Print in Series 2, Holliday’s cards are going to be a major chase in this product. Topps added in some extra spice with photo in for Holliday’s Short Print being an homage to an iconic hobby card, the 1989 Fleer Billy Ripken F Face card. *Note as of the day before release - it looks like there are multiple versions of Holliday’s Short Print - a standard in the batter’s box preparing to swing photo, and then the Fun Face photo. So an SP as well as an SSP may be in play for Holliday and perhaps the other three of the Big 4.
The consensus 1a or 1b top overall prospect coming into the season (Langford was the other main alternative choice), Holliday debuted after just a week and a half in the minors. The debut did not go well, getting just 2 hits in 36 plate appearances. Holliday was sent back down to Triple-A after roughly two weeks on the MLB roster. He’s not dominated in Triple-A as he’s scuffled at times, looking like he’s been trying a bit too much, but he’s still putting up a respectable line.
The lack of fireworks with Holliday’s debut has pushed him down some overall lists, but he’s still a consensus top 5 overall prospect pretty much anywhere you look. He’s still just 20 years old. He’s got all 5 tools. He’s got the second generation cachet. He’s on a collectable team, one that is looking like it has been built to contend for the next half decade. There’s really nothing to not like, even if you are trying to pick some nits as I’ve occasionally seen analysts doing. He’s easily a Tier 1 player for the Hobby. Ceiling 10
Tier 2
Heston Kjerstad, OF, 25
I’m not breaking any news here and I’m not the first one to say it, but Kjerstad is too good for Triple-A and the Orioles haven’t figured out or simply decided that they should find him full-time at-bats in Camden Yards. The second overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, Kjerstad battled myocarditis complications from COVID during the pandemic, delaying his timeline to the point where he did not get any minor league games in until 2022.. He broke out last year over his first full pro season split between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .303/.376/.528 with 21 home runs. He’s crushed Triple-A even harder in 2024 with a .323/.406/.671 line with 14 home runs in 41 games at the time of writing. His small sample call-ups to the big leagues in 2023 and 2024 have mostly been for bench depth.
So why the Tier 2 ranking, you ask? A couple of reasons, voice in my head. The Hobby is a fickle mistress, and when a player debuts and does not ball out immediately and a subsequent call-up goes similarly, card prices will suffer accordingly. Kjerstad isn’t going to steal many, if any, bases. His hit tool is average to above average. Even while crushing Triple-A so far this season, he is swing outside of the zone a LOT, in the 16th percentile and only making contact outside the zone 53% percent of the time. That much outside the zone swing is going to be taken advantage of by MLB pitchers. Finally, he isn’t the best defender as either a corner outfielder or at first base, meaning his bat is going to have to be the differentiator in claiming a spot on a competitive Orioles MLB roster. A Hobby friendly power bat, Kjerstad is on the border of Tier 1 and Tier 2. Depending on his prices, his cards could be a nice buying opportunity for the long term. Ceiling 8
Tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Boston Red Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Wilyer Abreu, OF, 24
We had Abreu in Tier 3 for our 2023 Bowman Product Preview (check the Astros section) and I don’t see much of a reason to change that now with his rookie cards. The home runs he was hitting and the high walk rates he was posting have more normalized now in his MLB sample. What has jumped up positively is the batting average, and that has been driven significantly by the BABIP numbers being higher than anything he’s done in the last two years of the minors. So while he’s batting .275 at the moment, he’s probably more of a .250 - .260 hitter long term, especially when examining his contact and swing rates all looking subpar.
While we had Abreu as more a fourth outfielder, and on a division leading team, he probably is, right now he’s a starter for the Red Sox and playing well. Assuming he comes back soon from a sprained ankle with no lingering effects, I could easily see a .260 20-20 season for Abreu. On a highly collectable team, that does drive enough Hobby interest to easily slot Abreu back in Tier 3. Ceiling 5
Tier None
None
Chicago Cubs
Tier 1
Shota Imanaga, P, 30
The less heralded NPB pitcher making his way to the MLB in 2024, Imanaga has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He did recently show he is mortal, giving up seven runs to the Brewers on May 29th, but outside of that, he’s not given up more than two earned runs in any games. He’s leapt to the head of the pack in the NL Rookie of the Year race, ahead of late entrant Paul Skenes and the pre-season favorite Yoshinobu Yamamoto. In fact, Imanaga prior to the season was around 5th or 6th in the odds.
Imanaga primarily throws two pitches - a low 90’s four seamer with a usage close to 60% and a low-to-mid 80’s splitter. He has a couple of show-me, little-used breakers with a sweeper and a curveball, each being thrown less than 10% of the time. Imanaga throws the four seamer up in the zone, generating a fair amount of whiffs with it, while the splitter drops down into the bottom of the zone or below the zone to get whiffs and called strikes.
I was a bit skeptical that Imanaga would be anything more than a mid-rotation arm, and I am still a bit skeptical that his low velocity, elevated fastball will continue to dominate in the heat of the summer pitching in Wrigley. On the other hand, it’s really hard to argue with the results (5-1 with a 1.88 ERA as of writing), and the balanced schedule, where batters don’t get to see pitchers more than a few times a year, is something I probably didn’t give proper weight to when projecting Imanaga. A new pitcher, especially one that is a seasoned veteran of pitching at the highest level outside of the MLB, can take advantage of that lack of familiarity in the short term. Likewise, I would recommend taking advantage of Imanaga’s success by selling his cards, as I am still skeptical of him being a Tier 1 pitcher long term. However, being on one of the most collectable teams as the new shiny toy and ace of the staff is hard to argue with and justifies a Tier 1 ranking for now. I just feel we are already seeing his Ceiling in action. Ceiling 9
Tier 2
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, 22
The Mets 1st round pick in 2020 out of the California prep ranks, PCA was traded to the Cubs at the 2021 deadline for Javy Baez, Trevor Williams, and cash. This trade, from the moment it was done, looked great for Chicago, and not so great for New York. Even with PCA struggling in his small MLB samples, he’s still a plus center field defender with plus speed that will be a starting MLB player for a long time with that as his floor. If he can get the hit and power tools to show up like he had done all the way up through Double-A, then he is at a minimum a Tier 2 player with Tier 1 upside.
What will it take to get back to those type of results - I just think it will be time. PCA is still just 22 years old, and he’s already significantly cut down on the strikeout rate in his small MLB sample this year, at just 21%. A bit more patience at the plate is warranted - he’s swinging a lot, to the tune of a 57% swing rate, and his contact rate is 78% - not enough to be successful with that high of a swing rate. With more reps, the hit tool should even out, and then he can start to get back to the pull-side juice that we saw in the lower levels. There’s a future 20 home run, 40 stolen base profile with a .270 average or better, especially hitting in Wrigley. A team leader, a grinder, and a fun personality, PCA not only has the baseball skills but all of that extra “It” factor that you look for in the Hobby - someone I would not hesitate to spend some money on. Ceiling 8
Tier 3
Alexander Canario, OF, 24
A power hitting corner outfielder that I am very familiar with as he came up through the Giants system, Canario was traded to Chicago along with Caleb Killian at the 2021 trade deadline for Kris Bryant. Canario immediately showed what he could do by hitting 37 home runs across three levels (High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A) in 2022. Unfortunately in the Dominican Winter League after the 2022 season he had a nasty ankle injury coupled with a dislocated shoulder on a play running to first base, which significantly shortened his 2023 season. Even so, he was able to get a small end of season debut with the big league squad. At the moment, he’s providing corner outfield depth when needed (A Seiya Suzuki oblique injury in April gave him a couple of weeks up with the MLB squad) and otherwise continuing to develop in Triple-A, where he’s still not yet played 100 games even though he made it there at the end of 2022.
Canario is a power over hit corner bat that will take a walk but strike out a fair bit. With his injury history (he also had labrum surgery early in his career), he’s basically given up on running on the bases. Caveat emptor with comps, but this is definitely trending towards a profile like former Cubs power bat Jorge Soler. Strangely, given the hobby’s love affair with power, Soler is basically treated like a Tier 3 player, which is where I’ll have Canario as well. Ceiling 7
Jordan Wicks. P, 24
Wicks is a classic SP4 lefty that doesn’t do anything flashy but ends up providing solid innings. A first round pick (21st overall) of the Cubs in 2021, Wicks had one of the best change-ups in that draft. He starts with a low-90’s four seamer along with that change-up and will mix in a sinker, slider, and curve-ball. Wicks debuted at the end of last season and did what was expected - kept the Cubs in ball games but didn’t blow anyone away. He started 2024 in the rotation, but a forearm strain that fortunately to this point did not require surgery has kept him out. He is throwing rehab starts and is expected back soon, perhaps even before this preview gets published.
A starting pitcher with little bullpen risk on a highly collectable team is always going to generate some interest. Wicks doesn’t have strikeout stuff at the MLB level, but he lives in the fringes of the zone and then gets swings and misses with his change-up, so there is always a potential to take advantage of aggressive hitting lineups. Somewhat of a borderline Tier 3 and Tier None profile, his draft pedigree and team context pushes him into Tier 3 for me. Ceiling 5
Tier None
Luke Little, P, 23
Known for his triple digit heater and the juxtaposition of his last name vs. his physical presence (currently listed at 6’8”, 220 pounds), Little was a JuCo bandit taken in the 4th round of the 2020 MLB Draft as a raw stuff lefty. The Cubs gave him a shot at starting for a few years, but by 2023 had fully shifted him into the inevitable bullpen role. That shift turned a slow burn into a speed run, going from High-A to the majors in 2023. Currently in that bullpen role in Chicago, he’s on the fringe and has had to make one trip back to Iowa before returning to Chicago.
He’s a two pitch arm with that mid-to-high 90’s four seamer that can touch 100 and is being thrown around 75% of the time. Hi second pitch is a low-80’s sweeper that he’ll throw about a quarter of the time. The stuff is impressive, the command still leaves a lot to be desired. He’s not had a BB/9 under 5 since he made it to Double-A. There’s a scenario in the future where Little is a high leverage bullpen reliever, potentially even closing although as a left-hander that’s less likely. However, he’s still quite a ways away from being that, which keeps him firmly in Tier None. Ceiling 4
Cincinnati Reds
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Noelvi Marte, 3B, 22
It will be hard to not lead off the conversation about Marte without starting with his 80 game PED suspension. Absent that complication, Marte would be a no doubt Tier 2 hitter with some argument for Tier 1. Marte has the prospect pedigree, regularly being ranked in the top 5 of team prospect lists and in the top 50 of overall lists, recognition from being the headliner in the Mariners trade with the Reds to acquire Luis Castillo, and a strong MLB debut in 2023 where he hit .316 with 3 home runs and 6 stolen bases in just 35 games. He seemed on the path to locking down the Reds third base job for the next half decade, but now, there’s that bit of doubt.
Marte does everything well outside of perhaps the glove-work and defensive feel. He can hit, hit for power, run (as long as he stays fit), and easily make the cross diamond throw. With the defensive questions, he may end up being pushed to. a corner outfield spot, but the Reds have enough options all over the field that Marte probably gets plenty of opportunities at the hot corner for the next few years. He’s got 30 home run power in the bat and that’s the most attractive part of the profile. With the above average floor for the other tools of Hobby import - hit and speed, it leads to an easy Tier 2 ranking. I would not be surprised if Marte is regularly putting up .280+, 30 HR, 20 SB offensive lines with full playing time. Just be aware, if you are buying Marte cards, the risk has substantially risen in the short term. Ceiling 9
Tier 3
Lyon Richardson, P, 24
A Florida prep right-hander taken by the Reds in the second round of the 2018 MLB draft and paid almost half a million over slot, Richardson missed most of the 2021 season and all of the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. His first season back in 2023 saw him fly through three levels of the minors before making his MLB debut with two starts in August and two in September. It was a pretty rough debut with crooked numbers being put up against him in all four starts, including a seven spot in his final start of the year.
Richardson throws a variety of pitches with two fastballs - a four seamer in the upper 90’s and a sinker in the mid-90’s. He complements that with a curve-ball, change-up, and slider. The whole arsenal has strikeout potential, but he’s struggled with his command. Not altogether unsurprising from a TJ returner, but his 2024 stats in Triple-A are still showing he’s struggling with his efficiency.
The Reds continue to give Richardson the opportunity to start, and he’s got a starter’s arsenal with plus velocity at times. The raw potential is there, but at some point the Reds may decide to pare down the arsenal and move him to the bullpen. At that point, he’s more of a Tier None arm. Until then, I will slot him barely into Tier 3 as someone that could flash strikeout stuff in the middle of a rotation. I wouldn’t be buying here, though, until I saw further development. Ceiling 5
Connor Phillips, P, 23
Similar to Lyon Richardson above, Phillips has intriguing stuff that will continue to give him opportunities to prove he can be a strikeout throwing starting pitcher even though the command leaves a lot to be desired. The player to be named later in the Jesse Winker & Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners trade, I recall the rumors of that PTBNL being a surprising one and speculation, before he was named, that he could potentially be the best player in the return. To this point, it looks like Jake Fraley has been that guy, but there’s still time I suppose.
Phillips notoriety was driven by his fastball data which averages around 96 mph with plus vertical break and the plus potential for his two main secondary weapons - a curve-ball and slider. He’s pretty much given up on his change-up as it wasn’t very effective. Surprisingly the fastball hasn’t gotten the whiffs that one would expect given its characteristics which is a note of a caution to be wary of.
If Phillips can keep the fastball up in the zone and get more swing and miss with it, there is that mid-rotation strikeout type that regularly slots into the upper reaches of Tier 3. If not, there’s a strong likelihood he ends up in the bullpen. A high leverage in the pen is the odds on favorite for his future role and that is borderline Tier 3/Tier None. In the interim, he gets the benefit of the doubt because of the strikeout potential and the fact that he’s currently still a starter. Again, like Richardson, I wouldn’t be buying until I see the walks come down, and so far in 2024, that’s been the farthest thing from reality. Ceiling 6
Tier None
Carson Spiers, P, 26
A multi-inning reliever or back-end starter, Spiers has regularly flexed between these roles for the Reds depending on their needs as he bounces between the majors and the minors. No standout pitch in his arsenal, he’s willing to throw almost anything in his tool bag at the hitters. A four-seamer, sinker, cutter, sweeper, change-up, and slider are all recorded by statcast from his MLB outings. His four seamer and sinker average around 93 mph.
Spiers doesn’t really have strikeout stuff, and essentially lives around the edges of the zone. Primarily he’s looking to limit free passes, which he does well. Outside of that, there isn’t anything to drive much pitching value beyond his ability to flex between the rotation and the bullpen. This is an easy pass from a Hobby perspective. Ceiling 3
Cleveland Guardians
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
José Tena, SS, 23
Just another middle infield prospect in a system chock full of them. In Tena’s case, he’s a bit more power over hit than, while it tends to be the other way around in Cleveland’s system. While he plays shortstop more than anywhere else, he gets a fair bit of time at second and third base as well, which is more where he belongs. Especially given the depth at all of those positions in the org.
Tena’s data follows the evaluation of a power over hit player. Exit velocity numbers are all in the top third or better of Triple-A, he swings a lot, and he doesn’t make enough contact. In 2024 at Triple-A, he’s putting the ball on the ground way too much right now - an uncharacteristic 55% when the previous large sample size of 2023 Double-A was 44%. Even so, he’s hit 8 home runs in less than 60 games, which is all he hit last year in 114 games between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors.
There was some surprising interest back in 2021 when Tena had his 1st Bowman cards and I didn’t really know why. At this point, that’s calmed down quite a bit as he is trending as more of a utility player, and his 18 game debut in 2023 at the MLB level was underwhelming to say the least. This is an easy one to avoid even if there is potential for a power hot streak to momentarily drive card prices. Ceiling 4
Colorado Rockies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Hunter Goodman, OF/1B, 24
Back in 2021 Bowman Draft, I had Goodman as a Tier 3 bat and while there were moments where he looked more like a Tier 2 slugger with 35 home runs combined in 2023, the hit tool concerns are all too real. That could easily change, but power bats that figure out the hit tool are a lot less common than hit tool bats that figure out the power tool. With Goodman, it’s tough to guess which way it will ultimately go, as he has shown improvements in 2023 to have that big season. But at the MLB level, he’s reverted back to swinging too much, whiffing too much, and not making enough contact. Defensively he doesn’t really have the chops at present to fit anywhere on the diamond, with DH being the best place for him. He’ll still get a token few games at catcher, a few at first base, and then mostly in right field, but it remains to be seen if he can get the defensive development that will find him a permanent home on the diamond. Just another piece of the Goodman puzzle that at current is really hard to decipher.
The power with Goodman is so tantalizing - even with an average hit tool, he plays in a stadium that could get him to 30 home runs in the blink of an eye. That justifies spending at least a few Hobby dollars on him as long as you don’t bet a big percentage of your Hobby budget here. Ceiling 7
Tier None
Victor Vodnik, P, 23
A reliever in Colorado? I’m out! Seriously though, Vodnik is a reliable middle innings relief arm for the Rockies with five years of control left. He was acquired from the Braves at the 2023 trade deadline along with Tanner Gordon for reliever Pierce Johnson.
Vodnik comes from a lower, three quarters arm slot, primarily throwing a high-90s four-seamer over 65% of the time. He has two secondaries that he mixes in roughly equally - a slider and a change-up. None of the pitches are generating much swing and miss - he’s essentially looking to generate weak contact and has done that quite well during his MLB tenure since debuting in 2023. He’s currently got a 55% ground ball rate in 2024, good for 82nd percentile among relief pitchers. As long as he keeps doing that, he should continue to find reasonable success with Colorado. From a baseball perspective, this is a valuable piece for the Rockies. From a Hobby perspective, it’s one we can easily ignore. Ceiling 2
Detroit Tigers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Parker Meadows, OF, 24
There was a ton of buzz this off-season with Meadows as a trendy later round outfield target, especially in the high stakes, NFBC leagues where you start five outfielders. The ingredients that led to that was Meadows combination of power, speed, outfield defense, and playing time opportunity. He debuted in mid-August last year and put up close to league average numbers in 37 games. Starting the year on the roster with Detroit, Meadows continued to show the approach gains that made him a viable major leaguer with cutting down on his chase rates and walking at a double digit rate. Unfortunately in 32 games, the strikeout rate ballooned to 38%. With the book on Meadows now out for MLB pitchers to take advantage of, Meadows was sent back down to Triple-A.
Long term, the floor for Meadows is a strong side platoon bat that gives you 15/15 potential. If he can figure out how to close some holes in his swing and approach - not an easy thing to do at 6’5” - there’s a Tier 2 Ceiling as a .270+ hitter that goes 20/20 at a defensively valuable position in center field. Not exactly Hobby gold, but perhaps worth a few bucks to see if he can adjust to what MLB pitchers are doing to him. Ceiling 7
Sawyer Gipson-Long, P, 26
A back-end starter on the fringe of Tier 3 and Tier None, Gipson-Long was a bit of a pop-up prospect over the last year or two. He debuted in September of last season and pitched really well through four starts, including an 11 strikeout game against the free-falling Angels. When the Tigers signed Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty in the off-season, along with the return of Casey Mize, and the writing was on the wall that Gipson-Long was going to have a tough time of making the rotation out of camp, which he did not. After a groin injury, he pitched one rehab game in early April, and by mid-April, it was announced that he was going under the knife for Tommy John surgery.
Typically this story would end in a Tier None ranking, and that’s how the Hobby should treat SGL. However, there is a poor-man’s version of Logan Webb here (credit to Nick Pollack for making that comp). SGL lives in the bottom of the zone, inducing weak contact combined with swing and misses that have a mid-rotation upside. In the short term, I would treat SGL like a Tier None pitcher, but in the long term I think the Ceiling is high enough that he probably fits well within Tier 3. Ceiling 6
Tier None
Brenan Hanifee, P, 26
A minor league free agent signing of the Tigers prior to the 2023 season, Hanifee had been exclusively pitching out of the rotation until June when the Tigers moved him to the pen in Triple-A. Debuting at the end of September with the big league squad, he again pitched in relief. That looks to be his home now as he’s solely relieving in Triple-A.
Hanifee throws his 94 mph sinker over half the time now that he’s in the pen, followed by a change-up, slider, and cutter. The arsenal is fine but doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts. He’s more looking to drive ground balls, which he does pretty successfully.
At this point, Hanifee is a middle to late innings reliever that may have some baseball relevance. Without big strikeout stuff, there isn’t any real Hobby relevance. Ceiling 1
Andre Lipcius, 3B, 26
After being DFA’d by the Tigers in the midst of Spring Training, the Dodgers came in and picked him up for cash considerations. At the end of Spring Training, L.A. passed Lipcius through waivers and he went unclaimed, getting him off the 40 man roster and assigning him to Triple-A.
Lipcius has always showed an advanced hit tool since he was drafted in the third round of the 2019 MLB Draft by Detroit. He regularly posts double digit walk rates while having never posted a strikeout rate above 21%. His September call-up was much the same, although the walk rate did dip against MLB pitching. Fast forward to 2024 in the hitter friendly PCL and not only is Lipcius continuing to show the above average hit tool, but he’s smashed 17 home runs in just 58 Triple-A games as of writing. I don’t think he’s actually a power hitter now, but it’s possible that the Dodgers highly respected dev group have unlocked a bit of hidden juice with Lipcius.
There’s some Tier 3 upside with Lipcius if the power gains are real and not a mirage of the PCL. Some of the data does look like there are real power gains, but I have to look at PCL data with a bit more skepticism. Given that every team passed on Lipcius for free less than three months ago, it’s enough for me to pass on him to and stick him in Tier None as a utility player that is more emergency depth than a potential MLB starter. Ceiling 4
Kansas City Royals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Nick Loftin, 2B, 25
The Royals Comp-A pick at 32nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Loftin is the epitome of a glue-guy gamer. While he came out of Baylor as a shortstop, he hasn’t played the position once in pro ball. However, he’s played almost everywhere else defensively with the exception of catcher and right field. Primarily a second baseman, Loftin’s main carrying tool is the hit tool. He’s only had a strikeout rate above 18% once and that was just 24% with his first experience at Triple-A in 2022. He also regularly registers walk rates in the double digits. As of writing, he has equivalent 13% walk and strikeout rates in his 2024 MLB action. He’s more of a gap power guy and playing in Kansas City, where home runs are suppressed, isn’t going to help the ball go over the fence. In his almost 50 games of MLB experience spread between his 2023 debut and his 2024 playing time, he’s yet to hit a home run. While he’s shown the ability to steal bases in the minors, he hasn’t made it a priority to do so at the MLB level, registering just two so far, both during his 2023 debut stint.
Utility players are often ranked in the Tier None bucket, but occasionally will find a home in Tier 3. Loftin’s plus hit tool gives him the upside to play daily, and the utility player is more of a label about the Royals being able to plug him into a variety of positions depending on their needs rather than having him sitting on the bench as a fill-in guy to rotate starters out for rest days. The gamer mentality and the success the Royals are having right now are the added context to push Loftin into Tier 3. I would not be surprised to see Royals team collectors spending a few extra bucks on Loftin, even if the Hobby at large does not. Ceiling 5
James McArthur, P, 27
Acquired from the Phillies after they DFA’d him in 2023 for an un-ranked International Free Agent outfielder, Junior Marin, and some cash. McArthur fully transitioned to the bullpen once he joined the Royals org, and has taken over the closer role for Kansas City in 2024.
McArthur has a relatively balanced three pitch arsenal with a 95 mph sinker, 83 mph curve-ball, and an 88 mph slider. All three pitches have been relatively successful from a CSW perspective, while the slider shows the best results and getting a lot of whiffs as well. Most importantly, McArthur has been able to significantly limit walks. A sub-3% walk rate is almost always going to lead to success, and with above average strikeout stuff, it all leads to a potential mid-tier closer. That’s enough to slide him out of the morass of relievers in Tier None and into Tier 3. Ceiling 5
John McMillon, P, 26
McMillon has ridiculously good stuff and unfortunate a lack of command and control of his fastball slider combo. His slider was literally un-hittable in his MLB debut in 2023 - he did not give up one hit on the pitch. His four-seamer touches triple digits and when it’s on, it can drive as much swing and miss as the slider. McMillon has spent all of 2024 in Triple-A as he attempts to improve the command, which has yet to happen. In just over 18 innings, he’s given up 17 free passes and currently sports a 6.38 ERA.
This is a very high risk, high reward profile. McMillon by stuff alone should have no problem claiming a closer role at some point in the future. By command, he’s should be nowhere close to it. If, and it’s a big if, McMillon figures out how to limit the walks, he suddenly gains whatever potential notoriety big strikeout stuff closers can posses in the hobby, which gives me enough of a reason to push him into Tier 3. Ceiling 5
Tier None
Steven Cruz, P, 24
Acquired from the Twins along with Evan Sisk for Michael A. Taylor prior to the 2023 season. Cruz is a flame-throwing righty bullpen arm. He throws two variations of his heater at 97 mph - a four-seamer and a sinker, both that exhibit arm-side tail at times. He pairs that with a tight slider that is his whiff pitch. As with most bullpen arms with big stuff, Cruz is in the pen because he struggles with his command. If he can get that command just a tick or two better, there’s a high leverage role in his future. It’s a ton of strikeout stuff betrayed by command that leads to way too many walks. For a bullpen arm with a potential high leverage future, the Ceiling gets a tick higher than normal for a Tier None reliever. Ceiling 4
Jonathan Bowlan, P, 27
A second round pick of the Royals in the 2018 MLB Draft, Bowlan has taken a while to finally make it to the majors due to the pandemic and then TJ surgery in mid-2021. A larger presence on the mound, Bowlan has five pitches in the arsenal. Two versions of the fastball account for two thirds of the pitches thrown - a mid-90’s four seamer and a mid-90’s sinker. A slider, curve-ball, and change-up round out the selection, with the slider being the most promising one in the group.
Bowlan has battled injuries since he’s been drafted, which has continued to raise the specter that he could eventually be shifted to the bullpen. The Royals continue to run him out as a starter, despite the minimal innings he’s pitched at the big league level. He’s simply continue to be inconsistent, which doesn’t bode well at this point in his career given his age. He’ll dominate an outing with 8 to 10 strikeouts, giving up minimal runs. And then he’ll get lit up for 6 to 10 runs while barely getting in three innings of work. At this point, he may be nearing the end of the starter’s road and losing any real Hobby relevancy. Given that, I’m not at all interested from a Hobby perspective. Ceiling 3
Anthony Veneziano, P, 26
The 6’5” lefty has almost exclusively been used as a starter in the minors but looks to be more and more shifting towards the bullpen. All four of his MLB appearances - two at the end of 2023 and two so far in 2024, have been in relief. In Triple-A so far this season, it’s been a mixture of starting and relieving, but the writing is on the wall that he is going to be a bullpen arm.
The arsenal starts with a four-seamer around 94 and is followed by a slider that occasionally registers as a sweeper and a change-up that gets a lot of swing and miss when he’s able to command it. And that command really has been the challenge with Veneziano. The lack of it is what is finally pushing him towards the bullpen role, which kills off any modicum of Hobby interest that there could have been. Ceiling 2
Tyler Cropley, C, 28
A backup catcher from day one that never provided enough offense to be relevant, Cropley got a two game debut at the end of last season. He was then released by the Royals in the off-season and has yet to hook back on with any MLB team, nor anywhere else that I could find. He may be another one playing Indy ball somewhere or he’s simply moved on after reaching the childhood dream of playing in the big leagues for all I know. Ceiling 1
Logan Porter, C, 28
Unlike fellow backup 28 year old catcher Tyler Cropley, Porter has actually shown enough offense with the bat to remain relevant and employed as a backup catcher. He’s got above average power and takes a LOT of walks. This is due to an extremely passive approach at the plate, where his swing rate is in the bottom 5th percentile of Triple-A hitters. He’s really waiting on “his pitch”, the ones he can do damage with. He’s got an almost 50% hard hit rate in 2024 and an average exit velocity in the top quarter of Triple-A hitters. Defensively he’s ok for a bat first backup backstop and the Royals have given him a decent amount of reps at first base to get his bat more opportunities. But there’s no real defensive chops to get excited about here. Ultimately it’s going to be difficult for a hitter with this passive of an approach to find an every day role at the MLB level, especially one that doesn’t have plus defensive tools. Ceiling 3
Los Angeles Angels
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Jordyn Adams, OF, 24
Another one in a long line of tooled-up athletic prospects in the Angels system, Adams got a couple of opportunities at the MLB level in 2023 in August and September but looked over-matched at the plate and in the field. He struck out in 16 of his 40 plate appearances and took exactly zero walks.
Adams is a speed and defense center fielder with hit tool concerns. He’s got quite a bit of swing and miss in his game - so far in 2024 in Triple-A, he has a zone swing rate in the 84th percentile (nice). But he’s got a zone contact rate in the 9th percentile (not nice). His power is roughly average and is probably good for 15-20 home runs with full playing time. The speed is elite, which allows his defense in center field to live in that plus rating range even though in Angels games I watched last year, he did not exactly cover himself in glory out in the field.
Given the Angels situation, I imagine they give Adams every single last opportunity to earn a starting job over the next two to three years. If he does get that full-time job, you probably see a sub-par batting average, around .220 - .240, with 15-ish home runs and potentially 60 stolen bases if he can get on base enough. That’s enough juice to get into Tier 3, but the hit tool probably caps his ranking there. If the hit tool takes a jump, there is a lot more to get excited about. Ceiling 7
Kyren Paris, 2B/SS, 22
I was a bit surprised that the Angels called up Paris straight from Double-A last year, but Angels org decisions rarely make sense. I guess when the rosters expanded, Paris was possibly going to have to end up on the 40-man roster after the season ended, so why not jump him up to the MLB roster in anticipation of that I guess. After an underwhelming 15 games, Paris was put on the 60-day IL with a torn thumb ligament, ending his season. 2024 has brought further struggles for Paris, even though he did get another 21 games at the MLB level in May before being recently sent back down to Triple-A. In fact, that’s his Triple-A debut, which is strange to say after two MLB stints already being on his resume.
A second round prep pick in the 2019 MLB draft, Paris is another one, like Adams, that is more athlete than baseball player. Like Adams, speed is his best tool, although he’s not got that elite gear like Adams. Defensively, he fits better at second base than shortstop, and that’s probably not a problem as Neto is likely going to occupy shortstop in Anaheim, I mean Los Angeles, for the next 5+ years. The hit tool is backing up in 2024 with a ton of swing and miss and the associated high strikeout rates. There’s some pop, but he’s going to need full playing time for it to even register.
The most likely outcome for Paris is as a up the middle utility/bench bat that provides a plus speed option. There’s definitely potential for a second division regular if he can figure out how to tone down the swing and miss and strikeouts. Still just 22 years old, I think we can give him the benefit of that doubt and slide him just into Tier 3. But this is a buyer beware situation, and one that requires some patience, which the Hobby notoriously does not possess. Ceiling 6
Tier None
Davis Daniel, P, 27
A back-end rotation arm that has had TJ coming into the draft in 2019 and missed the first half of 2023 due to a shoulder strain, Daniel made his MLB debut last year with two bulk inning efforts at the end of the season.
Daniel has a four pitch arsenal led by a four seam fastball that has seen velocity numbers all over the map, from 90 mph to 93 mph that he was throwing in his MLB starts to 96 mph at one point and now currently sitting 91-92 in most of his Triple-A starts. His secondaries are a slider, curve-ball, and change-up. None of them particularly stand out, and they all need the fastball to play up for him to really be effective.
A command over stuff guy at this point, there’s little reason to be excited by this back-end rotation/bulk inning profile. At least he’s got the whole first name, last name flip flopped thing going for him. Ceiling 3
Kelvin Cáceres, P, 23
Cáceres was a cheap International Free Agent signing in 2017 and by 2022 had full converted to a relief role. He had strikeout stuff but lacked command, which is one of the tried and true formulas for moving to the bullpen. He’s primarily throwing a 97 mph sinker and an 82 mph curve-ball in almost equal shares around 40%. The rest of the time he’ll throw a change-up with some arm side fade to it. The sinker is more of a weak contact pitch while the curve-ball is the swing and miss pitch.
Cáceres was not making the team out of Spring Training after a two game September debut, and then a right lat injury as the season was imminent led to him being placed on the 60-day injured list. So we have yet to see Cáceres in 2024. Regardless, it’s pretty easy to slot him into Tier None. Two potential plus pitches give him a bit of a Ceiling, but as usual, the command will need to take another step forward for him to move into a future high leverage role. Ceiling 3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tier 1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, P, 25
The Nippon Profressional Baseball (NPB) Pacific League MVP the past three years running, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s would have been the biggest free agent signing of this past off-season if his current teammate Shohei Ohtani was not on the market. At just 25 years old, and not subject to the NPB-MLB posting, the potential ace was a very hot commodity. With Shohei already signed in Dodger Blue, it seemed highly likely that he was headed to L.A., but he did take a quick tour of other interested suitors before signing on the dotted line to play in Chavez Ravine (the location of Dodger Stadium for those that don’t know).
Yamamoto has a six pitch arsenal, but he’s primarily relying on three pitches currently. It starts with his mid-90’s four-seam fastball which racks up strikes 70% of the time. Next comes the 90 mph splitter, a swing and miss pitch which batters are hitting under .200 against. The third pitch is the curve-ball, where he racks up even more strikeouts with a 44% CSW and 74% strike rate. His remaining three pitches are a cutter, slider, and sinker, but he’s throwing those 5% or less of the time, so they aren’t much more than show-me pitches at the moment.
Yamamoto came into the season as the NL Rookie of the Year favorite, but inconsistent results, strong initial results from countryman Shota Imanaga, and a sensational debut from Paul Skenes, have all pushed Yamamoto out of the top of mind of the odds-makers. To think that Yamamoto isn’t an SP1 and future ace is a mistake in my opinion. The stuff is there, the control is there (5.5% walk rate), the strikeouts are there (28% strikeout rate) - it’s just a matter of time before he’s used to the MLB game and living in the States and the cadence of being an MLB player that he finds that consistency. I have no problem ranking Yamamoto as a Tier 1 pitcher and would take any opportunity in price dips to buy his cards. Ceiling 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Kyle Hurt, P, 26
Drafted in the 5th (and final) round of the 2020 MLB Draft by the Marlins, Hurt was then traded just over 6 months later to the Dodgers along with Alex Vesia for reliever Dylan Floro. Does no one remember that the Dodgers have only made like two bad trades in the last decade?
Hurt has a four pitch mix that is stuff over command. His two best pitches are his mid-90’s fastball and mid-80’s change-up, which is the exception to his command concerns as he controls it well. His slider and curve-ball are more secondary pitches that he tends to ditch when used in pen roles. When he made it up to Triple-A last year, and even the MLB, the Dodgers shifted Hurt into more of a bulk inning role out of the bullpen. That was likely a preparation for the Dodgers short term needs. Long term, Hurt’s still got a high strikeout back-end rotation future, and with the Dodgers pitching dev org, even more isn’t out of the possibility.
Unfortunately, Hurt is hurt right now (it’s just too easy). He’s on the 60-day IL with right shoulder inflammation as of the end of April. That’s a scary proposition for spending any Hobby money on. However, a high strikeout pitcher that could come out of some obscurity and start getting out high end MLB batters with relative ease (his first MLB inning he got Tatis, Soto, and Machado out in order) in a Dodgers uniform is worth keeping track of. Ceiling 7
Tier None
None
Milwaukee Brewers
Tier 1
Jackson Chourio*, OF, 20
One of the Big 4 rookie Short Prints in the product, Chourio shot up prospect ranks in 2022 to the point where he was a top 10 prospect entering 2023. Hitting 22 home runs, stealing 43 bases, and striking out just 18% in 122 Double-A games in 2023 before a brief Triple-A glimpse at the end of the season was all anyone could have asked for to cement a Top 5 overall prospect status heading into 2024. And then, a bit surprisingly, the Brewers announced that they had signed Chourio to an 8 year extension with options during the December Winter Meetings. Immediately speculation began that Chourio would open the season with the Brewers big league squad in 2024, even with a decent depth chart already in place in the outfield. A broken hand for Garrett Mitchell towards the end of Spring Training essentially cemented that outcome, and Chourio has been on the Brewers MLB roster the entire season.
All that’s not to say it’s been rainbows and unicorns for Chourio. He’s struggled. He’s currently hitting .217/.257/.344 with 6 home runs and 7 stolen bases. Outside of his defense and stolen base abilities, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about if you blindly judge him on the first two months plus of the season so far.
Chourio is still just 20 years old, and the hit tool is plus, the power, speed, and fielding are all double-plus. The arm is about the only thing that is in the average ability, which means he’s more suited to center or left field and isn’t ultimately a big deal from a Hobby perspective. Comps are bad, and these aren’t direct comps, but Chourio is one of very few players that has a chance to look like Ronald Acuña Jr. or Julio Rodríguez as he gets more experience under his belt. Ceiling 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Minnesota Twins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Kody Funderburk, P, 27
Primarily a hitter that moonlighted as a pitcher, the Twins drafted Funderburk in the 15th round of the 2018 MLB Draft. The Twins immediately converted him to a pitcher and turned a late round pick into a useful MLB player, which from a baseball perspective is definitely a win. From a Hobby perspective, while Funderburk is Fun name, a middle reliever really doesn’t move the Hobby needle.
He primarily is a cutter/sinker/slider guy from the left side that gives us the traditional high strikeout rates coupled with high walk rates that equal bullpen arm. The conversion from starter to reliever began in 2022 and was fully in place by 2023, when he debuted at the end of August and was able to stick through the end of the season. Funderburk is on the fringe of the bullpen right now and likely gets moved up to the MLB squad with injuries and back down to Triple-A as his roster spot is needed for other players. As I said, it’s not something that will draw much Hobby interest even if there is some high leverage potential in his future. Coming from the left side just makes it so much harder to find an opportunity to be a full-time closer. Ceiling 2
New York Yankees
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Everson Pereira, OF, 23
Pereira debuted in 2023 in August and struck out at a 39% clip, really showing the main concern with him, which is the lack of hit tool. He’s started the year in Triple-A and through 40 games, his zone contact rate is in the 6th percentile, and it’s been trending up! Yikes. Periera has plus power and when he hits the ball, he hits the ball real hard - average EV in the 78h percentile and 90th percentile EV in the 88th percentile of Triple-A hitters. He also has a bit of speed, likely leading to low double digit steals with relatively full playing time. The final thing to be aware of with Pereira is that he seems to regularly pick up soft tissue injuries and he is currently on the 7-day IL in Triple-A for reasons I could not find (Yankees tend to not be very forthcoming with minor league injuries). Not that the Yankees have any issues like that on their major league roster (/sarcasm).
Pereira gets into Tier 3 with the Hobby friendly power potential and Yankees collectability. I would probably avoid him from a Hobby perspective long term because I don’t believe the hit tool will get consistently good enough, but I think there is likely an opportunity to sell whenever he comes back up and goes on a hot streak. Ceiling 6
Austin Wells, C, 24
After turning down the Yankees as a late round draft pick out of famed Nevada high school Bishop Gorman in 2018, the Yankees went back to the well to draft Wells in the first round of the 2020 MLB draft out of the University of Arizona. There was a ton of questions defensively with Wells and if he could stick at catcher - credit to the Yankees and Wells for sticking with it and showing that he’s at least passable at the position. According to Statcast, his framing metrics are great and his blocking and pop time are above average. The arm, on the other hand, has long been considered an issue and continues to be an issue to this day. On the positive side, the hit and power have never been a question for Wells. Coming up through the minors, Wells regularly turned in double digit walk rates and low twenties or even teens strikeout rates. Across four levels in 2023, including his MLB debut, Wells hit a respectable 21 home runs. As expected for a catcher with a traditional catcher body shape, Wells really isn’t going to register in the stolen base department for his offensive profile.
2024 has been a tough one so far for Wells - he’s hitting .200 with just one home run and a wRC+ of 72 at the time of writing. The Yankees have only been giving him catcher reps since their lineup is healthy enough to fill out the outfield plus DH spots, and Wells isn’t hitting enough to force the issue. At the moment, he’s just not making even a league average amount of contact and whiffing too much. Long term, a lot of those problems work themselves out, and Wells should figure into a combo catcher/fielder/dh role that can hit .260 with 25 home runs. Add in the Yankees factor and that starts to sniff Tier 2 territory. In the short term, with his underwhelming performance in 2024 and just part-time playing opportunities, he rightfully fits into Tier 3. There’s definitely a world where he makes some noise in future years. One thing worth mentioning is that the Yankees have a pipeline full of intriguing catcher prospects, and that is also a threat to Wells’ playing time to be cognizant of. Ceiling 6
Tier None
Yoendrys Gómez, P, 24
An International Free Agent signed way back in 2016, Gómez is a back-end starter that has simply never been able to log enough innings. He’s never once gotten to 70 innings pitched in his 6 professional seasons (with the lost COVID season in the middle of it) prior to 2024. One of the main reasons has been what you would guess - shoulder injuries, TJ surgery, and a COVID-19 illness. Because of the lost time, the Yankees were able to get an extra option year for Gómez heading into this year. So even though he’s on the 40-man, they can option him to the minors as needed. This makes 2024 a make a break year for his Yankees tenure, and not surprisingly, when he debuted last year and the one game he pitched with the big league club this year has been out of the bullpen. That’s really his future if he sticks with New York beyond this year as the Yankees have too many better options for the rotation at the MLB level as well as in the minors. The Yankees are keeping him in the Triple-A rotation in case there is a short term need for innings.
Gómez’s future is either in the pen with the Yankees or elsewhere, or a back-end starter with a second division team. There is some strikeout stuff with his arsenal, but nothing stands out, and he’s recently been walking too many hitters as he’s climbed the levels. Outside of the Yankee uniform, there isn’t much to get excited about. Ceiling 3
Oakland Athletics
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Lawrence Butler, OF, 23
Butler was a 6th round prep hitter taken by the A’s in the 2018 MLB Draft, Butler started off as a first baseman but has transitioned to the outfield where there will be less pressure on his bat. He’s got the athleticism to handle any soot on the grass, but profiles better in a corner where his lack of experience isn’t as pronounced. Offensively, he’s got the power-speed combo with hit tool concerns. He’s the prototypical 20-20 guy if he can hit enough. He takes his fair share of walks with a passive/patient approach at the plate. His swing rate was in the bottom fifth of MLB hitters in 2024. Pair that with too much outside the zone swings, a 5th percentile zone contact rate, and a 15th percentile whiff rate, and you can see where the hit tool challenges arise from.
After debuting and sticking with the A’s roster in mid-August last year, Butler earned a look again to open the 2024 season. Unfortunately the numbers continued their underwhelming trend of results from his MLB time in 2023, and the A’s finally sent him down to Triple-A in mid-May in the hopes of getting right. Butler has an electric personality, and if/when he’s back in the majors and able to get to hopefully a league average amount of zone contact, I expect to see that shine through. That’s also held back a little by being in one of the worst ownership/fanbase situations in baseball, sadly. I wouldn’t go out of my way to spend money on Butler, but the personality plus the power-speed combo is something I wouldn’t mind owning a piece of if it wasn’t expensive. Ceiling 6
Tier None
Joe Boyle, P, 24
There was a moment in Spring Training where many in the fantasy baseball world, including myself, were taken aback and considering buying in on Joe Boyle. That’s because Boyle started off games that don’t count by not walking anyone, and with Boyle, that’s the biggest issue. He possesses a mid to high-90’s four seamer, a slider, and a curve-ball that all flash plus. They’re all let down by his fringe command and lead to significant bullpen risk. If he does end up in the pen, the stuff could lead to a high leverage role. If his command takes a huge leap forward, he becomes a big strikeout, middle of the rotation arm. That, though, is a huge if, and one I’d not bet on.
The A’s have nothing to lose and should continue to let Boyle see if he can figure out how to pitch out of the rotation. Right now he’s back down in Triple-A as he was sporting an 18% walk rate (yowza) through his first 7 MLB starts of the season. This was a tough rank and his stuff easily speaks to a Tier 3 ranking, but I just couldn’t do it with how bad the command is at present. Rarely would I consider a Ceiling grade higher than 4 in Tier None, but Boyle deserves it. The chances of reaching that Ceiling, though, seem pretty remote at the moment. Ceiling 6
Philadelphia Phillies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Orion Kerkering, P, 23
Kerkering was the Phillies 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft and threw just 7 innings post-draft in 2022. In 2023, the electric reliever flew through four levels of the minors before debuting in late September and being a part of the Phillies playoff push all the way to the NLCS.
Kerkering is primarily a two pitch guy, throwing his ridiculous sweeper over 50% of the time. That pitch borders on elite at times, with massive horizontal movement. His 98-pmh four-seam fastball is his second pitch and it too flashes plus characteristics. In 2024, batters hitting under .100 against the pitch. He’ll mix in a sinker about 10% of the time which plays similar to his four-seamer.
Kerkering is a high strikeout, low walk reliever that is already being used as a high leverage guy for the team with the best record in the National League. Rookie relievers that have this type of profile are rare and easily deserving of Tier 3 status. The only way there would be more hype would be if Kerkering had already claimed the full-time closer role - I can’t imagine that doesn’t happen at some point in the future. Ceiling 6
Tier None
Weston Wilson, OF, 29
Wilson can put up some gaudy home run totals and with the newer rules promoting stolen bases, he’s suddenly started to put up eye-raising totals there as well. In his third season at Triple-A in 2023, Wilson went absolutely wild, putting up a 30/30 season. The key term there is “third” - at 29 years old, Wilson is showing that he’s too good for the competition there. However, this is his second organization as the Brewers let him walk as a minor league free agent after 2022.
Looking at the data and nothing really jumps out to me. It’s a collection of some good, some bad, and some meh numbers. The power looks real, the hit tool looks underwhelming due to some passivity.
Wilson may be one of those under-rated, off the radar success stories as he gets more MLB opportunities. So far he’s only had 8 games in 2023 and a recent call-up in 2024 has only led to one game played as of writing. I’d really like to see a more meaningful, half-season or more sample at the MLB level to see if Wilson will be able to reproduce some of that power/speed magic or if it’s a mature hitter beating up on kids 5 years younger than him. Given how little opportunity he’s gotten so far, I’d lean towards the latter until I see otherwise. Ceiling 5
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Kyle Nicolas, P, 25
The Marlins 2nd round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, Nicolas was part of the package sent to the Pirates for catcher Jacob Stallings. The other pieces of the package were Zach Thompson, who’s not part of an MLB org in 2024, and Connor Scott, an athletic prep bat that still hasn’t figured out the hit tool and is on his third tour of duty in Double-A. Not exactly a barn-burner of a trade.
Nicolas was a starter all the way through his Double-A time in 2022. At that point, the Pirates began shifting him to a reliever role, which allowed his plus pitches but poor command to find some modicum of success. He’s got a big time four seam fastball that regularly sits 98 and unsurprisingly throws over 60% of the time. His two secondaries are a two plane, big breaking slider and a lesser used curve-ball that shows similar two plane shape, but has a lot more north-south drop to it. That shift to the bullpen has led to a strikeout rate in the 27% - 31% range. The walk rate, however, is still scary bad, falling somewhere in the range between 14% and 21%. Those walk rates are simply going to keep him out of a high leverage role in the short term. In the long term, if the command takes a huge leap, it’s not out of the equation that Nicolas does land a high-leverage bullpen role. I just doubt it happens given his track record. Ceiling 3
Jackson Wolf, P, 25
The Padres 4th round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft was traded to the Pirates at the 2023 trade deadline as part of the package to acquire veteran reinforcements Ji-Man Choi and Rich Hill. At that point, Wolf was pitching in Double-A, but had already made a debut spot start for the Padres just a few weeks earlier. Then this past off-season, AJ Preller went out of his way to re-acquire Wolf, sending Pittsburgh Kervin Pichardo, a light hitting infielder.
Wolf is a three pitch, soft tossing lefty. At 6’7”, he looks all legs and arms on the mound, and uses that to his advantage to get down the mound, adding deception to his middling arsenal. It starts with a low-90’s four seamer, a slider that doesn’t break much, and a change-up with arm-side run.
Wolf has been pitching in Triple-A all season, his first foray at the level. It has not gone well. The PCL is not very kind to pitchers, and even less so to soft tossers.
This is a back-end rotation arm or bulk innings type without much in the profile to drive Hobby interest. Furthermore, he debuted as a Padre, is getting a rookie card supposedly in a Pirates uniform, and is currently back pitching for the Padres organization. I couldn’t ever really see why a Pirates collector would want his cards, and the Padres collectors are going to prefer to wait and get any future rookie cards that might hopefully be in a Padres uniform (or simply go back and pick up some more of his 1st Bowman cards in a San Diego uni). Ceiling 3
Colin Selby, P, 26
Stop me if you’ve heard this before - a starting pitcher with filthy stuff but command issues that was shifted to the bullpen finds enough use to get to the MLB but still has command issues. After debuting in 2023 for Pittsburgh, the Pirates eventually DFA’d Selby early into the 2024 season. Kansas City came calling and Selby was sent to the Royals for minor league reliever Connor Oliver.
Selby throws two versions of the fastball, a four-seamer and a sinker, both sitting around 94 mph. The two breakers are a slider and a curve-ball, both with big time whiff potential. As usual with this profile, if the command takes a large positive step, it’s a potential high leverage bullpen arm. A new org can sometimes unlock that, so we’ll see what Kansas City can do with Selby. I can’t imagine a ton of interest Hobby wise, but perhaps someone to keep a not-so-close eye on. Ceiling 3
San Diego Padres
Tier 1
Jackson Merrill*, OF, 21
Merrill is one of the Big 4 with a base Short Print, and honestly, the one that is performing the best while probably having the least notoriety among that group. The Padres move their prospects through the levels fast for various reasons, sometimes not all due to performance. In Merrill’s case, it was definitely performance-based. However, prior to Spring Training, I don’t think anyone was anticipating Merrill, who had only made it to Double-A by the end of 2023, was going to be competing for an Opening Day roster spot. But compete he did, and he deservedly earned the starting center field job in San Diego.
Merrill has always had a plus hit tool with the ability to make contact at will. None of his other tools lag that far behind, and he truly does have that five-tool skill set. The raw power is there, but the game power has always been a question mark. Part of that is Merrill’s ability to hit nearly anything means he isn’t always hunting the one pitch to do damage with. Prior to 2023, he was also putting the ball on the ground too much as well - check out Tieran Alexander’s article on Merrill detailing how that was one of the few things holding him back from potentially being the top overall prospect in baseball. That’s no longer a major issue, and Merrill popped 15 home runs between High-A and Double-A in 2023. Merrill has the sprint speed and base running chops to easily get to double digits in stolen bases. He’s almost already there with nine so far in 2024. Defensively he was well suited for shortstop, but given the Padres roster construction, pushing out to center field made a ton of sense, and he’s played well there.
Currently hitting .281 with 3 home runs and 9 stolen bases while striking out just under 15% of the time is a huge indication of Merrill’s talent. Just recently turned 21 years old and never having played above Double-A, this is seriously beyond impressive. A future perennial All-Star who’s MLB career has gotten off to a strong start, Merrill is an easy and obvious Tier 1 player. Ceiling 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
None
San Francisco Giants
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Kyle Harrison, P, 22
Let me state this up front - I am likely the high man on Kyle Harrison, and have been for quite a long time. I had him as a Tier 1 player in 2023 Bowman, and am pushing him down into Tier 2 for this release because the results have essentially been league average. As I’ve said elsewhere, the Hobby is very much a “what have you done for me lately?” proposition, and Harrison hasn’t yet done enough to justify maintaining a Tier 1 ranking.
Harrison has a three pitch mix from a low release point that allows his stuff to play up. The four-seam fastball averages 93 and is his primary pitch, throwing it over 60% of the time. He gets a fair amount of swing and miss on the pitch, but he misses the zone up and to the arm-side too much. Big league hitters won’t give away swings on those pitches as much as minor league hitters will. His main secondaries are a slider and a change-up, which he throws in roughly equal measure around 15% - 20% of the time. The slider is being classified as a curve-ball by statcast, but we’ve known it as a slider throughout his minor league time. It’s his best pitch right now, driving good swing and miss and filling up the zone to the tune of a fantastic 41% CSW. The change-up has regularly been a work in progress as he’s worked his way up to the majors. It’s currently being used as more of a pitch to get hitters off of his fastball, and it’s the least productive of his three pitches. The key for Harrison to take that next step into SP1/SP2 territory is if he can sequence and tunnel the change-up with his fastball and slider. One final note on Harrison is that he’s limited the walks really well at under 7%. This was a huge issue for him in the minors, and as soon as he got to the majors, it seems to have gone away. Part of this may be that he’s controlling his fastball more, as he can get it up to 97 but typically throws it at 93. And part of this may simply be MLB-level pitching coaches.
For now, Harrison is an SP3/SP4 that can eat up innings, especially now that he’s not walking hitters over 10% of the time. In the long term (he’s still just 22, so there is a long way to go), the strikeout potential due to his stuff and delivery coupled with a fantastic park to pitch in speaks to at least a Tier 2 ranking. Add in some team context with the Giants being a more collectable team, and there is definite upside towards returning to a Tier 1 ranking. Ceiling 9
Jung Hoo Lee, OF, 25
The 2017 Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) Rookie of the Year and 2022 KBO MVP signed a 6 year, $113 Million free agent deal with the Giants this past off-season.
Lee is a hit over power center fielder that can hit at the top of most lineups. He’s never had a strikeout rate greater than 11% in his professional career, and he’s only had double digit strikeout rates of 11% in his first two professional seasons. Since then, his strikeout rates have been in the single digits every year, including his first 37 games in 2024 with San Francisco. Unfortunately that’s all he’ll be getting in his debut season as he dislocated his shoulder after crashing into the outfield fence, leading to shoulder surgery to repair the labrum. Lee’s hit tool feels like it was surprisingly undersold during his free agency bidding. In his small MLB sample, his zone contact AND outside the zone contact AND whiff rate AND swinging strike rate were in the 99th percentile. Sometimes, all that contact can lead to less impactful contact, and there is some portion of truth to that for Lee. He’s not looking to regularly launch the ball over the fence, and honestly, that’s probably a smart approach for 90% or more of MLB hitters when their home park is the Giants stadium. His EV and hard hit numbers are middle of the pack, he doesn’t barrel the ball a lot, and his ground ball rate was 50%. There were some questions I heard with Lee’s defense in center field, and for the games I watched, I didn’t see any issues, but it’s worth noting. If he ends up getting pushed out to a corner, it puts more pressure on his bat. He’s got speed, and you can see that on defense, but he’s not looking to steal bases. He maxed out at 13 in the KBO and only had two so far with the Giants.
A high-end hit tool with International appeal on a collectable team is bound to draw a high level of interest. Sadly the season-ending injury puts some level of an artificial, short term cap on his cards, but it also may present a buying opportunity as well. However, the lack of power in his profile shouldn’t give us a ton of confidence that at any point there’s a huge amount of upside to take advantage of. Still, Lee is easily a Tier 2 ranking as things stand today, and I would take advantage of selling into that International interest unless you are planning on holding well into the long term. Ceiling 8
Tier 3
Wade Meckler, OF, 24
Since being drafted in the 8th round of the 2022 MLB Draft, Meckler has yet to spend 40 games at any level, from the Complex post draft all the way to his MLB debut in 2023. From one perspective, that shows that the Giants had faith that he had no more to do at each level and pushed him to the next one up to continue to challenge him. From another perspective, that gives us very little sample sizes to base judgements around, nor for Meckler to likely face the same pitcher for more than five or so at bats. The carrying tool with Meckler is the hit tool - he can flat out make a ton of contact. He doesn’t chase and in his small Triple-A sample last year, his zone contact rate was 90%. His small MLB sample was not great pretty much across the board, but I think we can safely ignore that 20 game sample. Defensively he’s probably limited to left field although the Giants likely continue to run him out in all three outfield slots to maintain some level of versatility. He can run enough for double digit stolen bases, but I don’t expect it to be a major part of his future offensive profile. The real challenge here is the power. It’s average at best, and currently is below average. Playing home games in San Francisco full time would probably cap his home runs around 10. As a smaller guy (5’9”, 175 pounds), I don’t expect he’ll grow into much power either.
This is a tough one to rank as I have Meckler right on the border of Tier 3 and Tier None. The hit tool could lead to some .300 seasons in the future. On the other hand, there isn’t anything else in the profile that would make it easy for him to find an everyday job. He’s possibly an everyday player on a second division team. Unfortunately a wrist sprain heading into the 2024 regular season has stopped us from getting any useful sample so far, which I was really hoping to get. Regardless, I think the challenge for Meckler lies at the MLB level at this point, so it remains to be seen if he’s more like an empty stick that can hit .300 at the MLB level or just won’t make enough impact for any team to give him full time run. I’ll default him to Tier 3 for now, but have little conviction about it, and I would be spending Hobby dollars elsewhere. Ceiling 5
Tier None
Tyler Fitzgerald, UTIL, 26
Fitzgerald is a versatile defender that was primarily a shortstop in college. Taken in the 4th round of the 2019 MLB Draft, the Giants soon thereafter started playing him all over the diamond and in the past year have added center field and a smidgen of left field into the mix.
Never considered much of a power bat, Fitzgerald engaged a pull happy approach (occasionally pulling the ball more than 50% of the time) and hitter friendly minor league environments to record 19, 21, and 22 home run totals from 2021 - 2023 in the minors. That sort of approach has been to the detriment of his hit tool as he can chase, not make enough zone contact, and often striking out too much. The majority of the data indicators don’t tend to favor what Fitzgerald is doing. Outside of a down 2022, when just taking a look at his batting average, it would be hard to believe that his approach wouldn’t at least merit a Tier 3 ranking. However, friendly hitting environments, as mentioned above, along with really high BABIP’s are driving that. He’s an above average runner and shouldn’t have any trouble reaching double digit steals with enough playing time.
A utility player needs a lot of positive context to be considered a Tier 3 player, and while I considered if for Fitzgerald given the power approach and stolen bases, the contact metrics are too big of an obstacle for me to get there with him. There easily could be short windows where Fitzgerald does provide some value, and I would take those opportunities to sell if they do arise. Ceiling 5
St. Louis Cardinals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Masyn Winn, SS, 22
There were legitimate questions leading into the 2020 MLB Draft on whether Winn would be a two-way player, focus on pitching, or focus on shortstop. While the Cardinals, who took Winn in the second round, gave him a brief opportunity to throw one single inning back in 2021 as kind of a token gesture, they pretty much locked him into shortstop from the get-go.
I was watching some of Winn’s game early on as the Cardinals opened the season with two series on the west coast and I saw him swinging too often outside of the zone, and not making enough contact doing it. While he’s still swinging outside the zone a bit too much for my taste, the trend line on his outside the zone contact has continued towards the top right of the graph (currently 95th percentile in the MLB). In fact, almost all of his contact metrics are looking good to great. 90th percentile in whiff rate and overall contact rate and a 73rd percentile in zone contact. The hit tool at this point is trending towards plus and the main concern is if he can continue to produce with outside the zone contact. So far, so good, and it’s hard to argue with success as he’s hit over .300 every month of the young 2024 season. Winn’s also a plus on the base paths and should have no problem putting up 20+ stolen bases on a yearly basis. The final plus tool in the bag is Winn’s arm, as one might expect from a former two-way player. Plus is actually under-selling it - it is likely elite if you’re just measuring it from a velocity standpoint. His fielding metrics grade out poorly, but ultimately I doubt it will push him off of the position. More than likely a few years of MLB seasoning at the position clean that up. The final point, and the one that keeps him from Tier 1 consideration, is his lack of home runs. Winn is more of a line drive hitter, and his subpar exit velocity numbers are evidence that the line drive approach is the best one for him. There’s 10-15 home runs that he’ll fall into simply from the amount of contact he’ll make, but playing home games at Busch Stadium doesn’t help matters in that regard.
The shortstop of the now and the future is Masyn Winn, and there always has been a looming presence whenever having that discussion in St. Louis. Winn by no means will make anyone forget the Wizard, but he has a good chance to build his own legacy with highlight-reel defense and the hit and speed combo that will sit at the top of a Cardinals batting order for quite some time to come. Ceiling 8
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Drew Rom, P, 24
A back-end starter that was acquired along with Cesar Prieto and Zack Showalter at last season’s deadline for Jack Flaherty, Rom was called up for his MLB debut a short three weeks later and stuck in the rotation through the end of the season. The results weren’t that great outside of the cliche revenge game at Camden Yards where he went 5.3 shutout innings, giving up just two hits. Coming into 2024 he looked more like rotation depth that would be part of the Triple-A roster to start the season, but what was initially called bicep tendinitis in Spring Training evolved into arthroscopic shoulder surgery in early May. While there’s talk he could make it back this season, I wouldn’t be surprised if he simply just gets in various rehab activities and heads to the Arizona Fall League.
Rom is a soft tossing lefty with a four-seamer in the low 90’s, a sinker in the high-80’s, a sweeper, and a show-me splitter. His stuff plays up through deception in his delivery, but at the upper levels, that gets harder and harder to get away with, as Rom found out at the end of 2023. A back-end starter that’s more org depth that could easily end up as a bulk-innings type of reliever isn’t an exciting Hobby profile. Add in a recent shoulder surgery and it’s easy to ignore Rom from a Hobby perspective. Ceiling 3
Irving López, UTIL, 28
A 19th round pick of the Cardinals in 2017, López finally broke through for a cup of coffee debut in the last week and a half of the MLB season in 2023. After being out-righted back to Triple-A after the season, López chose to go the minor league free agent route instead and did not catch onto a roster for 2024. As much looking as I did, I couldn’t find if he’s still attempting to find work or hooked on with an Indy ball team or anything. López has some fun highlights from the second base position, which is where he has primarily played. He’s also had games in the outfield, third base, and shortstop as well, so he’s had some amount of versatility. He didn’t strike out much and took a fair amount of walks. No real speed or power to get excited about. If López does hook on with an MLB team, maybe there’s a reason to revisit this situation. Until then, it looks like he’s not going to be of any Hobby interest since there’s no MLB team interest in him. Ceiling 1
Tampa Bay Rays
Tier 1
Junior Caminero, SS/3B, 20
A consensus top 5 overall prospect, and I’m not the first person to say or even the tenth person to say this, but the ball just sounds different coming off of his bat. I remember the same thing about Austin Riley when he was coming up (not saying it’s a comp by any means, but I’m also not not saying that).
It all starts with the double-plus power - exit velocities (he’s in the 99th percentile of 90th percentile exit velocities in Triple-A in 2024), bat speed, and the associated results of it. Caminero hit 33 home runs between High-A, Double-A, and the MLB levels in 2023, further proving out that he’s got all the power and then some. The hit tool has played up throughout most of his time in the minors, but there are some warning signs that it’s not going to have the plus characteristics that the top line stats (hitting close to if not above .300 at every stop through Double-A) may lead you to believe. Most of Caminero’s most recent hit tool metrics fall into that below average to average range. His walk rates all typically float around in that 6% - 9% range, and that’s something that I would like to see upped a bit, but it’s hard to argue with his strikeout rates regularly coming in under 23%, if not in the teens. Still just 20 years old with likely a lot of positive development to come, that hit tool concern could is likely me over-reacting to data of someone who’s not allowed to legally drink alcohol in the United States, and in five years, this will be much ado over nothing.
Caminero won’t steal enough bases for it to register as an asset, and his defense is adequate. He primarily is a third baseman, although he got his fair share of reps at shortstop in the past. He’s not good enough to play the 6 for any length of time. Interestingly, the Rays started giving Caminero some second base reps in Triple-A as that may be another avenue to getting Caminero up to the big leagues.
Caminero has been dealing with a balky Quad muscle since the end of March, and at the end of May, he was finally shelved with the Rays putting him on the minor league IL with a Quad strain. We likely won’t see him back playing until mid-summer, and there’s no reason for the Rays to rush him back either. Even with the lack of upcoming playing time, there’s no reason not to continue to treat Junior Caminero like the top end, Tier 1 Hobby prospect that we have been since his 1st Bowman came out a little over a year ago. Power is what we crave in the Hobby, and Caminero is going to easily produce 30+ home run season with regularity while being able to hit in that .270 - .280 range. Ceiling 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Osleivis Basabe, UTIL, 23
A competent defender at shortstop, third base, and second base, Basabe is what I tend to envision as a utility player. On top of being a competent defender at all of the demanding infield positions, he’s a got above average hit and speed tools as well, but little power to speak of. He’s never really looking to put the ball in the air, never posting a ground ball rate below 53% since 2019. He got the call in mid-August last year and stuck with the big league team through the remainder of the season because, well, I think we all know what happened to the Rays 2023 opening day shortstop in mid-August. With things a bit more settled on the MLB roster as the Rays traded for Jose Caballero, and Basabe not really producing much in his debut, it was an easy decision to start him in Triple-A in 2024. Unfortunately he broke his right wrist in mid-April and has not returned as of writing.
There’s an outside chance that Basabe at peak can reach the .300 batting average mark, which would generate some mild interest. Without any power, and just low double digit stolen bases, it’s tough to envision that there would be any Hobby long term interest. He’s a borderline Tier 3 and Tier None guy, but with the underwhelming debut and the current injury, it was easily enough to tip the scales toward a Tier None ranking. Ceiling 5
Tristan Gray, 3B, 28
I’ve never heard of Gray and when I saw his name on the list, I thought he must be another in a long line of relievers that Topps filled this checklist with (Thanks Topps!). Instead he’s apparently a utility infielder that mostly plays third base and shortstop with some trips to first and second base as well. I can see why he’s been off my radar - the jump from Triple-A also led to a huge jump in his strikeout rate. Prior to Triple-A, he’d never had a K rate above 23%, and once he walked in the door at the top level of the minors, he’s never had a K rate below 30%. The batting average, as you would expect, has never cracked .250 outside of super small samples or his debut season in Single-A. He’s currently hitting .216 with a 33% K rate in Triple-A in 2024 for the Marlins, who signed him to a minor league deal after being DFA’d be the Rays this past off-season. What Gray does do, and why he’s still hanging around the upper minors at 28 years old, is hit bombs. He’s going up there trying to hit the ball out of the park - Launch Angle, Fly Ball rate, Exit Velocity - they all speak towards that. And poor contact rates confirm the hit tool challenges. If you like swing and miss power bats that may provide org depth for another season or two before heading to indy ball or an Asian league, then maybe there’s something here to try and catch lightning in a bottle with. The reality is that we’ve seen this profile so many times, and I can’t even think of the last one that produced much Hobby value outside of a week or two (I’m looking at you Aristedes). Ceiling 3
Jacob Lopez, P, 26
Lopez is a soft tossing lefty that slings it from a three quarters slot. He’s primarily mixing evenly between a sinker and a slider with a show-me change-up. He’s mostly been a starter in the minor leagues, but the Rays have begun to leverage him in more of a multi-faceted role of bulk innings at the beginning, in the middle, and at the end of games. In any other org, the value Lopez provides would be a more traditional low leverage first lefty out of the bullpen, but with the Rays, he provides just that much more extra value. In the eyes of the Hobby - well, that’s a different story. There isn’t anything here to think there’s money to be found in his cards and is an easy Tier None ranking. Ceiling 1
Texas Rangers
Tier 1
Wyatt Langford*, OF, 22
One of the four unannounced short prints, Langford also comes with autos in the product. The fourth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, Langford was seen as a five-tool college bat with easy plus power. The Rangers wasted no time in pushing their first rounder through the minors, starting him at the Complex, skipping Single-A, and pushing him successively through High-A, Double-A, and finally Triple-A to end the year. He was even in consideration for the postseason roster when Adolis Garcia got hurt midway through the World Series.
It seemed like a foregone conclusion that Langford would make the Rangers Opening Day roster, and it was no surprise that it happened. The ride so far, unfortunately, has not been smooth. Umpires have been by no means helping, regularly calling strikes outside the zone on Langford. He’s been swinging outside the zone a bit too much (72nd percentile) and it’s hard not to think that has something to do with it. He’s not making enough zone contact (39th percentile) and he’s been too passive at the plate with a swing rate in 16th percentile.
The talent is there, and the best tool in the bag is the one we want - power. This feels like an adjustment period - remember that Langford wasn’t even a professional ball-player this time last year and he had less than 50 minor league games on his resume leading into his MLB debut. If people are out on Langford, I would be taking advantage of that all day long. He’s a no doubt Tier 1 Hobby profile, even if in the short term the road may be a bit bumpy. Ceiling 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Jonathan Ornelas, UTIL, 24
Do you like fringe utility players have a good enough arm to fill in at most positions on the diamond? Then I’ve got a player for you! Ornelas was a third round pick out of the Arizona prep ranks by the Rangers back in the 2018 MLB Draft known for his defensive flair and arm strength. That much hasn’t changed - everything else that we were hoping for hasn’t really taken the next step. He’s basically got an average hit tool and an average power tool, both with positives and negatives. Average EV is in the bottom third of Triple-A hitters, while 90th percentile EV is just inside the top third of Triple-A hitters. He swings outside the zone a lot, but he is able to make contact outside the zone a lot. He rarely swings in the zone (7th percentile - not great, Bob), but when he does, he again makes a lot of contact. There’s just nothing to hang my Hobby hat on - a ton of mixed signals with the data and the results. At best, he may end up finding a full time role on a second division team here or there, along the lines of a Marwin Gonzalez with a few more stolen bases, and that’s simply not enough for any Hobby investment. Ceiling 3
Washington Nationals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Jacob Young, OF, 24
The definition of a light-hitting, contact first speedy center-fielder, Young has never been on my radar since being drafted in the 7th round of the 2021 MLB Draft. I think most of that is due to the fact that he has yet to hit double digit home runs for his entire professional career, which is going on its fourth year now. Taking a look at some of his power metrics and I doubt we see him accumulate 10 MLB home runs in his career without an approach change. He ranks in the 1st percentile in Average EV, Average EV off of Fastballs, and Barrel rate. He ranks in the 0th percentile in Launch Angle (-2.6) and accordingly has a 57% ground ball rate, which is in the 99th percentile. Side question - is there an abbreviation I’m supposed to put after zero - these are questions you ask yourself while furiously and deliriously writing up a checklist with next to no time to do it. The speed and fielding metrics are top notch, and the hitting metrics are all above average - he’s not swinging overly much, he makes a good amount of contact, and he’s simply a tough out. With his speed, he’s more looking to put the ball in play and beat out the throw, but a few more walks would probably be a nice addition to the profile as he’s doing it less than 5% of the time.
Young essentially has two plus tools - fielding and speed. In a baseball sense, that will grade out pretty well - he’s got an fWAR of 1.4 through 2+ months of the season. However, from a Hobby perspective, an above average hit tool and a 20 grade game power tool simply aren’t enough to get him out of Tier None. I won’t argue if you treat him like a Tier 3 player that might garner some interest because he may steal 40-50 bags, but I doubt Hobby money is ever going to be into a profile like this. Ceiling 4
Jackson Rutledge, P, 25
The Jackson we were all hoping for being in the product! Rutledge was the 17th overall pick of the Nationals at of the JuCo ranks as a big, tall flamethrower (currently listed at 6’8”, 240). While he was reported to get close to triple digits pre-draft, at this point time his various fastballs live in the mid-90’s. He’ll pair his four seamer, sinker, and cutter with a curve-ball, slider, and change-up. The curve-ball has always shown the most promise, but he’s simply not been able to be consistent with any pitch in his arsenal. The Nationals need young starters in their pipeline, so they likely continue to give Rutledge every opportunity to prove he can do it before giving in and sending him to the pen. He’s just struggled to show that he can repeatedly be that rotation arm at almost every stop along the way, including the four game debut he got late last year. The stuff is there, but the command and consistency are not. Until that changes, the bullpen risk is too great to stick him anywhere but Tier None. Ceiling 4
Drew Millas, C, 26
Drafted in the 7th round in 2019 by the A’s, Millas was part of the package Oakland sent to the Nats for veteran rentals Josh Harrison and Yan Gomes. Millas has built himself into a potential solid backup catcher option with a strong plate approach that produces decent results. He’s not going to hit for much power nor steal many bases. Defensively he’s got the arm but is still a work in progress otherwise. As with most backup catcher types, or even fringe second division starters like Millas may be at some point, there really isn’t ever any Hobby interest. I don’t see Millas bucking that trend. Ceiling 2
Blake Rutherford, OF, 27
There’s been a lot of recent discussion about how the 2020 MLB Draft is looking worse and worse in retrospect, but it’s tough to argue against the 2016 MLB Draft being the standard bearer of disappointment over the last decade. Rutherford was the 18th overall pick in that draft by the Yankees. Just a little over a year later, he was traded to the White Sox as the headliner return for Todd Frazier and a pair of relief arms - David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle. Rutherford plied his trade in the White Sox minor leagues for the next five years, never really being bad at it, but also never really standing out. By the end of 2022, he’d reached the end of his original contract and was essentially a below average player across the board. As a minor league free agent, the Nationals gave him a change of scenery one year minor league contract. A strong BABIP-driven stat-line led Washington to give him a call-up for his MLB debut in August. He played 16 games and hit below the Mendoza Line, which obviously wasn’t enough for the Nats to bring him back in 2024. After electing minor league free agency in the off-season, Rutherford went unsigned by any MLB org. He is now playing in Independent ball for the Kansas City Monarchs of the American Association of Professional. At this point, there should be zero Hobby interest for the former 1st round pick. Ceiling 1