Who is Kirby Snead?
Kirby Snead has had a long and windy career, but he may be having his best year yet in 2024. The former 2016 10th-round pick out of Florida, Snead has seen his career take him from Toronto to Oakland and finally to Seattle, where he signed a minor-league deal this past off-season. He made his Major League debut in 2021 but has since been optioned back to AAA. However, he may only be there for a short time. Standing at 6’1, Snead throws from a lower three-quarters type slot. It’s a four-pitch mix that, before this season, was just around league average stuff-wise. In 2023, his fastball graded out at 101.83 Stuff+, the sinker was at 100.06, and the slider was 99.83 (all data and Stuff+ models are from Prospect Live’s own Dylan Drummey and can be found here: (https://www.prospectslive.com/aaa-stuff).
The changeup graded out at 79.06 Stuff+, but changeups are notoriously funky with Stuff+ models. Looking at the run values of these pitches, there was not much special in 2023 as well, as every pitch produced a run value over 2. Obviously, this is not ideal, but Snead has quietly performed much better at the start of 2024, with some big-time improvements in his Stuff+ numbers and his run values for each pitch.
2024 Stuff and Run Values
Fastball Stuff+ 2024- 117.58
Fastball RV 2024- .64
Sinker Stuff+ 2024- 122
Sinker RV 2024- .71
Slider Stuff+ 2024- 96.67
Slider RV 2024- -.21
The Changes
So, what has Snead changed in 2024? Well, the answer is honestly pretty simple. The shapes on all of the pitches have stayed pretty consistent from 2023, although he has added a couple inches of horizontal movement on the sinker and a couple ticks of IVB on the slider. However, where he’s throwing these pitches has made all of the difference. He’s started attacking up in the zone more, especially with the fastball. Although he only throws it at ~11 IVB, he’s produced an average VAA of -4.2, which is improved from the -4.75 number that he was producing in 2023. Essentially, this means that the ball is coming in on a flatter trajectory, resulting in a lot of missed bats and poor contact quality. This year, on 103 pitches, he has only allowed 2 barrels and is running a 28% whiff rate on all his pitches. The fastball doesn’t even have to be thrown all that much to enhance the whole arsenal, as he’s only throwing the four-seamer around 10% of the time, according to Statcast data available for AAA. By opening up the middle-top of the zone with the fastball, Snead can more effectively execute the sinker and slider as these are his main two pitches, throwing some combination of them 64.1% of the time. With the amount of sink and run he is getting on the sinker, he generates really weak contact, especially when you have to protect against the flatter fastball at the top of the zone. Opponents in 2024 are producing a measly .195 wOBA and a .200 BABIP on the pitch, showcasing its elite ability to miss the barrel. His slider has provided more of a swing-and-miss offering, missing bats 33.3% of the time early on this season. He’s been sneaking it in the back door to right-handed hitters this year early in counts, freezing hitters and allowing the rest of the arsenal to play up. This three-headed attack he employs on opposing hitters has been incredibly effective this season. Through 8.2 innings, he’s racked up 11 strikeouts and a .69 WHIP out of the bullpen. Hitters are only hitting .172 against him this year, a drastic change from the .316 number opponents tallied on him in 2023.
What Does This All Mean?
Kirby Snead’s change in arsenal usage and location speaks heavily to the changes that are going to continue to be made in baseball. The top of the zone has been used much more frequently in the pitch tracking era, specifically with fastballs with lots of ride. However, Snead is proving that you don’t have to have elite ride to throw fastballs to the top shelf. The name of the game is creating unique angles to miss bats and barrels. Even though Snead only gets around 11 IVB and throws his fastball around 93, he still gets whiffs because of the flat VAA that he creates. You don’t have to have an overpowering fastball with crazy amounts of ride to throw the ball at the top of the zone. Many pitching coaches are scared to attack the upper half of the zone, worried about the risk that it will induce better contact quality. In previous years, Snead has attacked the bottom of the zone with all his pitches, which plays well with the sinker and slider, but leaves a very small margin of error. His game was to try to induce weak contact, not miss bats. When the command is there, this game plan can be executed, but it also leaves the variance of outcomes that balls in play produce. It’s tough to control for this variance of outcomes that comes into play when the ball is actually hit. The “pitch to contact” world of pitchers has largely fallen away. In the modern game, the ability to miss bats has become increasingly more important as hitters attempt to maximize their own contact quality and results when they put balls in play. Snead has played into this idea and revamped his arsenal to be able to do so, and the results speak for themselves so far to start the 2024 season. As long as everything holds, Snead should find himself back on a Major-League roster sooner rather than later, as he looks to help the Mariners and their pitching staff put together a run in the playoffs.