This off-season, I’ll be taking a look back at past Bowman releases. It’s more about the players and how they’re progressing in baseball within the hobby landscape, not an examination of how good or bad the product still is or can be – but that’s an easy measuring stick to summarize with. This is the sixth in this series. I previously wrote about 2018 Bowman Draft, 2019 Bowman, 2019 Bowman Chrome, 2019 Bowman Draft, and 2020 Bowman & BC.
The 2020 Draft was weird. At only 5 rounds, there were a lot of top-tier prep players pulling out with the smaller bonus pool. Players like Dylan Crews, Chase Davis, Cade Horton, and Kevin Parada. Also, college names like Gavin Williams used their eligibility leverage for the same reason and returned to school. Altogether, roughly 20% of the top eligible talent either withdrew or said they would not sign. Teams were really cautious with their picks – all 160 players who were drafted signed.
From a product perspective, it seems like that’d make for a weak product. That’s half right – the pitching, considering it makes up over half of the checklist, looks really weak with a few exceptions. The bats make up for it though. There’s only a few established stars, most are still prospects, but man do they fill the highest echelon of what we like in the hobby.
Top of the Crop
With as many pitchers as were taken in this draft (and are in this product) there was bound to be a few that made it to this section. But Spencer Strider is better than that – he’s the best real-life player in this product by a considerable margin. Of course, pitchers don’t have the same ceiling in the hobby as position players, so there’s a debate to be had in hobby terms. Just a 4th round pick in 2020, he followed up on his outstanding rookie campaign (where he finished 2nd in ROY voting) with a 4th place Cy Young finish, 20 wins, and a league-leading 281 K. In short, he cemented himself as the ace of the staff for a team that has one of the better collector bases. He’ll continue to be a big draw in this product for years to come.
We’re in the realm of release now where the players in this section can still be prospects. Such is the case for Evan Carter, though his prospect status won’t last long. – he’s expected to be an everyday outfielder from opening day this year. He cemented that with his brilliant MLB debut, where in 23 games he smacked 10 XBH and posted a .400 OBP, then followed it up in the postseason with those same numbers in 17 games. Beyond that, Carter begins his first full year in the majors in just his age-21 season – the hobby’s always keen on youth in the majors. There’s not much chance that he’s less than an average MLB bat. Swing-and-miss is his biggest concern, but every other box that he ticks makes up for it – he hits the ball hard, he hits the ball at an ideal launch angle, and he doesn’t chase. That last point leads him to taking a lot of walks, which cements him as a top-of-the-order option. He should get to 20 HR / 20 SB as soon as this year, which depending on if he improves his contact rate, could make him the ROY.
He didn’t garner any ROY votes in 2023, but Bobby Miller established himself as a mid-rotation starter on one of the best teams in baseball. He didn’t have big K numbers in the majors, but he does throw harder than almost any starter out there and he has had big K numbers in the minors – so there’s hope that it translates a bit better as he matures further. That’d vault him even higher in the eyes of the hobby, where he’s already sky high. Equipped with a 5-pitch mix that’s well commanded, I think we’re all evaluating Miller properly. He’s not at his ceiling yet.
Solid Major LeaguerS
I can’t bring myself to put Spencer Torkelson back up in the top tier where he was at release just yet. His second year in the majors was definitely a positive though, as he hit 30 HR and really just showed he can be the dangerous hitter we all though he could be when he was taken first overall. His expected stats outstrip his performance by a significant margin too – I don’t think anyone doubts he has a 40 HR season in his near future. He whiffs more than anyone thought he would, but to me the bigger issue is that when he doesn’t make solid contact (which isn’t all that often), it tends to be fly balls, which have a low probability of becoming hits. Really that just means he’s never going to sniff .300, or with the aggressive approach that he’s taken in the majors, a .350 OBP. That puts him in the 8-12 range of MLB 1B – but his cards, of course, do much better than that.
I think Jordan Walker belongs here. I’ll ignore that April stint with the Cards where he didn’t look anything like the player we thought he could be. Let’s look at the line he had after returning to the majors in June after making adjustments at AAA – .277/.346/.455 with 14 HR in 97 games. Sure, it’s not a spectacular line, but he was only 21 – are many other players of that age doing that in the majors? There’s some easy improvements to make. He swings at inside balls twice as much as the average player. Overall his O-Swing was 33% and his O-Contact was 48%, which are both well below average. But he still hit .276! If those things tick back toward league average, watch out – there’s easily potential for 30 HR and a high batting average, which would very easily put him in the section above.
Reid Detmers has never profiled as a potential ace, but he’s already shown that he’s a mid-rotation type in the majors for two years now. They were different years though, and it’ll be interesting to see how he blends his successes together moving forward. Detmers’ curve has always been his best pitch, and he used it more effectively in 2023 when he threw all his pitches harder (and had a higher K%). The problem is, that’s the only pitch that throwing harder helped him – his slider was neutral, and the loss in his fastball command led to decidedly worse batted ball results and more walks. Anyway, solid pitcher. Established rotation piece. Acceptable results should continue moving forward, but it remains to be seen if he can tap into a bit more.
Jordan Westburg is up here merely because of his current hobby status. There’s a chance he could hit a 20 HR / .260 BA in 500 PA’s, but it’d have to be against finesse pitchers, with quite a bit of DH mixed in. Is that lukewarm enough? Westburg is great at hammering breaking balls – it’s probably his most unique positive trait. On fastballs, it’s not swing-and-miss that’s the issue, but quality of contact. Although, that increases significantly when fastball velocity decreases, so it’s not a total negative and he hits the ball plenty hard overall. His biggest negative is lack of defensive value. He’s best suited as a fill-in at the three infield positions rather than a starter, and the Orioles simply have better options at DH. Penciled into 2B to start 2024, those Connor Norby footsteps have to be pretty loud.
MLB
I think Logan Allen has a good chance to bump up to being a solid major leaguer in 2024, but in his rookie year he was hit just a bit too much, and his K% was just a bit too low for me to put him there for now. Coming from the left side, his sweeper and change do get whiffs, and adding a low-90’s fastball, the three pitches were equally effective. He’s mostly a finesse arm who hasn’t quite honed in his command yet – there’s some calculus here that says he closer to a mid-rotation arm than a back-end one. A base-only subject in this release, his best cards are found elsewhere.
Brandon Pfaadt redeemed a very uneven rookie year with a pretty nice playoff run, and seems like a rotation mainstay for the Diamondbacks. Pfaadt gives up too much hard contact on both of his fastballs and change-up. His fastballs have great shape but he doesn’t have much command with them, leading to a lot of middle-middle offerings. His most successful outings are ones in which he hits the 4S/sinker combo chaos just right, which affords a lot more swing-and-miss on his sweeper, which is clearly his best pitch. When the sweeper is working well, he doesn’t have to use that sub-par change-up much. If his command improves, he’ll look like a high-K mid rotation arm and hit a middling hobby ceiling. He already has the role, now he just needs to perform.
What will Garrett Mitchell be? Will the shoulder injury that limited him to 19 games in 2023 affect his performance moving forward? Will that unseemly K% knock him below Joey Wiemer in the Brewers’ depth chart? There’s a lot of questions to be had, but the first thing he needs to do is stay healthy. He hasn’t had a single season over 300 AB’s since being drafted. Through it all though, he’s earned a spot on the Brewers roster and posted a .450 SLG in limited action. There’s intrigue in his profile, we just don’t know how it’ll all shake out at this juncture.
Even though it was pretty big struggle offensively, Casey Schmitt’s future with the Giants is secure because he’s so valuable on defense. So valuable that he moved from 3B to SS and is probably still the best defensive option in their organization at that new position. Back to offensive side, he very much looked like a rookie in the majors in his 277 PA debut – he swung too much, struggled against good velocity, and chased too much. The last aspect is the most concerning – it’s been the book on Schmitt for awhile now. It affects quality of contact more than contact rate, and causes him to run a low OBP. With Marco Luciano providing a better offensive ceiling (especially power), I think it’s fair to think Luciano gets first crack at SS to begin 2024 – but Schmitt still has that defensive floor even if he’s at AAA for a good portion of the season working on his approach. We definitely haven’t heard the last of him. Hobby-wise look for a dip if he's not in the majors – his cost to acquire is almost low enough to be a buy already.
I don’t know why the A’s are doing what they’re doing with former 1st-rounder Tyler Soderstrom. Do they think so little of him that they only see him as a backup? I think there’s still a chance he’s not – he’s only entering his age-22 season. But he was truly bad in his MLB debut last year, and they seem to be ready to let him do more of the same in the majors this year instead of sending him back to AAA, where he still has work to do. He chases offspeed and breaking balls a ton, and the exposition of that led to a very low launch angle. That’s a problem for a player with very little speed. Soderstrom does have power, as evidenced by the 21 HR he hit at AAA in 2023, but he’s not mature, and seemingly not in an organizational situation that will let him mature organically. Defense doesn’t matter much for Soderstrom – he’s likely only to catch a handful of games and his offensive ceiling is good enough to be a 1B/DH.
Completely on the flip side, Patrick Bailey has shown himself to be the Giants catcher of the future defensively – he’s just not quite ready to provide value offensively yet. It doesn’t matter. The Giants have the luxury of being able to protect him with days off and batting him lower in the lineup. Bailey could stand to be a hair more aggressive at the plate, as he already tends to hit balls at an ideal launch angle for hits. At the same time he needs to learn to work himself into more advantageous counts, as his K% & BB% were poor. I think one hand will wash the other in this aspect. What we saw was really to be expected having only seen 120 PA’s in the upper minors before coming up to the Giants. Bailey isn’t close to his expected offensive ceiling yet, and though the position is tough there’s an undervaluing in the hobby right now because of that. If I were a Giants fan, I’d be a buyer.
The season started well enough for Bryce Elder in 2023, as through the end of May he had a sparkling 1.92 ERA. But as a sinker/slider ground ball pitcher who was just being really consistent, there was bound to be some regression, which hit with a 4.95 ERA the rest of the way. Still, he ate up 174 innings in total for a great team. He has a very low K% which hurts him in the eyes of the hobby, and it’s a feature of his pitching style, not a bug. With the Braves’ offseason addition of Chris Sale, Elder is now competing for the final spot in the rotation. For the hobby there’s more negatives than positives with Elder, but there’s a chance he just goes out and throws 180 innings too.
Nick Gonzales is still technically a prospect, but entering his age-25 season, it’s fair to suppose what he is as a MLB player. It’s not great – he certainly doesn’t have anywhere near the hit tool we thought he did when he was drafted 7th overall. His K% has never been under 25% at any stop in the minors, and his free swinging tendencies really caught up with him in his 35 game debut where he posted a .268 OBP. He has some impact in his bat, but he has to clean up that approach before we can say he’ll get to 15-20 HR. Without much speed or defensive value, he’s best suited to 2B where he slots in behind Liover Peguero. It’s not a great hobby context with his team either, so it’s a strong fade for me.
While Gonzales is definitely still a better hobby name, Alika Williams likely provides more value to the Pirates. Also still technically a prospect and also now 25, Williams is such a solid defender that he waits in the wings should any injury arise that affords the need for a middle infielder. To me he’s always had the profile of a MLB backup, and hasn’t escaped it nor fallen short of it. I’d expect better than the .270 OBP he showed in the majors moving forward, but in general his offensive impact isn’t good.
Alec Burleson’s strongest skill is putting bat to ball, for better or worse. He doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard nor does he have good speed, so it’s really important for him to optimize launch angle. He did it against fastballs in his platoon 1B/OF role in 2023 – but is that really enough for the Cardinals to keep him around in that same role this year? That’s a question that Spring Training will answer, but we already know there’s not much hobby upside.
It’s a little bit better of a situation for Jared Shuster with the White Sox than it was in Atlanta, but he hasn’t performed well in both the upper minors and majors. Surprisingly, that’s most closely tied to the inconsistency in his change-up, which is supposedly his best pitch. If he’s able to command that pitch better in spring training, expect him to fill into the back of the White Sox’s rotation. There’s not much hobby upside here though.
This set has two relievers who aren’t prospects anymore. Garrett Crochet was brought to the majors before this product even released in 2020 in a bullpen capacity, and continued to perform really well in that role through 2021. He had TJ surgery before pitching in a game in 2022 though, and his May 2023 comeback only lasted a few outings before going down for most of the season to a shoulder injury. And now, in 2024 they’re talking about him being a rotation piece? I don’t think it’s likely, but that double-plus fastball / slider combo yields a solid K% and should get him to at least a setup role soon. Our other reliever is Carmen Mlodzinski. It’s lack of command that forced him to this role, but he limits hard contact like a champ with his riding mid-90’s heater paired with a low-80’s sweeper. We’re not interested in Pittsburgh’s bullpen, but he seems like a good bet to be a solid piece of it.
Prospects of Significance
The Tigers seem to be handing the reins to Colt Keith at…well…his position isn’t important. The six-year, $28 MM contract he signed gives them no reason to hold him in the minors. At the very least he’s probably more valuable at DH than anyone else they’d run out there. After smashing 27 HR in the upper minors that’s supported by double-plus raw power, great quality of contact and an above average contact rate, on paper I think he’ll compete with Evan Carter and Jackson Holliday for AL ROY. Of course, he’ll need to be better offensively than those two – but hitting 20 HR with a solid batting average is the expectation. He could even provide equal or greater offensive value than teammate Spencer Torkelson, which is where the hobby already values him.
I don’t want to knock Heston Kjerstad too much, but there’s a lot of things he has going against him, especially for the hobby. First and foremost, he’s already 25 and doesn’t have a clear role with the Orioles. Second, he doesn’t have any plus tools. His hit and power are likely above average, but they’re really still just playing as average assets right now. I think that high batting average in the minors is unsustainable against big league pitching – his Whiff% isn’t high, but it’s too high for an expected batting average near .300. There were 58 players of his age or younger with as many or more HR. Combined with not being a strong defender, there’s no reason to push him to the majors for significant AB’s. But he did put together his first fully-healthy season in 2023 and made his debut. As the former 2nd overall pick, there’s always going to be interest in Kjerstad – just temper expectations on him being a star.
Thomas Saggese is the definition of a sum-of-the-parts type becoming significant for the hobby. Without a single plus tool in his bag, Saggese has cemented himself as a consensus Top 120 prospect by hitting over .300 with 15+ HR each of the last two seasons. The dude smacked 66 XBH in 2023 and touched AAA at age 21 – there’s a lot to like here. It’s really OK that his K% is a touch high because his contact is of such high quality. One little negative is that although he played all over the infield in 2023, once traded to the Cardinals he worked at 2B for all but 6 games – he probably profiles best there regardless.
It was an entire year of elite contact rate at AAA for Justin Foscue. He walked more than he struck out and even popped 18 HR. It’s quite evident he has at least a plus hit tool and it may show immediately upon his arrival to the majors, but when will that be? With Marcus Semien at 2B, the inability to find a home elsewhere, and other proximal players with better power, I think it’s a fair question. He was a slam dunk choice to add to the 40-man – a player like this will absolutely see time in the majors this year when an injury happens, but will it truly be a “shot”? I don’t think so. With Semien locked in long-term I think Foscue is absolutely trade bait – and now the hobby just waits and hold their breath that it’s to a friendly team.
What separates Owen Caissie from the other high-power upside bats a little further down is the (small) floor he provides in his ability to work counts and get on base. His hit tool overall is below average, but this is a profile that should play in the majors even as it is, as soon as late this year. It’s absolutely possible he doesn’t hit enough, but I’m making the bet he does and becomes a 30 HR bat. Considering his proximity and the Cubs’ strong card market, there’s even a little bit of undervaluing right now for the 21 year-old.
Austin Wells has improved so much defensively that he now profiles as an everyday catcher, and is being handed the reins with the Yankees to begin 2023. That’s a pretty big hobby floor, and being a former 1st round pick adds to it as well. He still has quite a ways to go to prove his mettle offensively though – he’s never hit over .265 or slugged over .480 in the high minors. He’ll hit at the bottom of the order in this rookie year, and still yield time to Jose Trevino. I do think he’ll end up as a league average starting catcher, but one without a great hobby ceiling. It’ll mostly be Yankees collectors going after him now.
We don’t often tout defense as a reason to buy into a prospect for the hobby, but Pete Crow-Armstrong is an exception. It’s not just the defense mind you, it’s that his elite CF defense paired with average-or-better hit and power projection. With PCA it’s still projection though – he may see significant time on the north side this summer, but don’t expect great offensive output in 2024. That part of his game is a work in progress, which is OK entering his age-22 season. Be ready to buy the dip, as I think he’ll end up as an above average regular for many years.
Masyn Winn comes into 2024 with his prospect status just barely intact, and I’ll take every opportunity to put him next to PCA, as he possesses a different tool the hobby rarely cares about but does in his case – arm strength. Showing up in highlights repeatedly matters, and gives Winn a floor for the hobby. He doesn’t have many other tools that are above average. While he makes contact often, it’s often not quality. His speed only plays as above average as well. There’s not a ton of pop in his bat, though he did hit 18 HR in AAA in 2023. Altogether for 2024, the hope is that he gets to more consistent quality of contact to get to a .300 OBP with 15 HR / 15 SB at the bottom of the Cardinals lineup. That’d be enough to maintain his hobby status given the cannon that is his right arm.
Emerson Hancock seems to have mostly figured out how to pitch without hurting his shoulder, but it did cost him the final month of the season. Long touted to have a true starters repertoire with excellent command to match, it’s just been the injuries that kept him from making good on the “ready-made” label he had as the 6th overall pick – his performance through it all has matched expectation. He did finally make his debut and get to a new career best in innings, but that shoulder kept him from really getting his feet under him in the majors. Hancock, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller will battle for two rotation spots this spring (all pretty nice hobby assets!) – all should be a significant part of what the Mariners do this year though, regardless of who starts the year in the minors.
It’s tough to place Jared Jones here from a team context for the hobby, but his skills have matured so well that he deserves it. Jones is a power pitcher, with a fastball that’s regularly in the upper 90’s and complemented by a slider, curve, and change, all of which could end up as above-average offerings. The two breakers are already there, and with that double-plus fastball he’s got some nice hobby ingredients. He’s really learned how to pitch as well – it’s just a matter of being a little more consistent. The Pirates have nothing to lose by giving him considerable run in the majors this year, but there’s still some roughness to his edges.
Connor Phillips has elite stuff. It can be said of three of his pitches - fastball, curve, and slider - but the biggest question that remains is, will he ever have average command of anything? He’s never really shown it. If his command ticks up to below average across the board he’d be a back-end starter with high-K upside, which can do decently in the hobby. I think that’s a realistic expectation. If not, he still definitely has a future in the MLB as a reliever, with stuff that would play in high-leverage situations. We don’t want that, but know there is a floor.
He’ll be a slower burn than Jones and Phillips because he missed so much time in 2023, but Tekoah Roby could come on in a big way in 2024 and perhaps debut late in the year with the Cardinals. He’s more well rounded than those two, and also possesses a double-plus pitch in his curve. Also, his command is better, and he’s in a better team context. He might be both safer and have a higher ceiling than Jones and Phillips – he just has some work to do to prove it, having only thrown 58 innings at AA.
I think Tink Hence has always trended toward being a hobby favorite – it’s fun to see a mid-90’s heater with electric movement coming out of frame as slight as his. Of course, that’s also why he’s still so risky. Hence has never gotten to even 90 pitches in any outing, and generally faded later in the year even though he was healthy. But as he’s only 21 for a majority of the year, perhaps it’s fair to hope he’s able to add some physicality to his frame without sacrificing what’s made him a Top 100 prospect.
After touching AAA in 2021, you’d think Max Meyer would have more than 6 MLB innings to his credit. But no, he was injured in his second MLB start in July of 2022 and hasn’t pitched in a game since. He’s likely to be brought along slowly to begin 2024 but he should be ready to contribute in the majors in a significant manner. What will he look like? It’s an explosively high ceiling, and it was already clear that Meyer’s command (before injury at least) was good enough to let his wipe-out slider and mid-90’s fastball play to extreme effect, and he had earned his way to the MLB rotation. I’m sure he’s ready to prove he’s no worse for wear after 19 months of recovery and rehab.
Other Prospects
I don’t know where to put Cade Cavalli, so I’ll cite hobby context on this one – Nationals + TJ recovery + erstwhile relief risk – and put him here. He’s likely at a nadir of value right now assuming he recovers form TJ to the majors around mid-season – look for that buying opportunity if you’re interested. He’s still very much the player that had him taken 22nd overall in the draft. His double-plus curve compliments his three above average pitches including an upper-90’s fastball well. He even has a performance history that had him giving up just 3 HR in 97 innings at AAA in 2022. Like Meyer, it’s an explosively high ceiling – he just needs to hone his command, which is the biggest issue currently in his comeback from Tommy John.
Nick Loftin made his debut and could see significant playing time this year, but he’s never going to hit any benchmarks to make him a likable hobby asset. He’s also on the older side for a 2020 college bat. I think he has a good chance to have a solid career in the majors as a utility player with low-double digit HR & SB annually, but his bat isn’t impactful enough to call his hit tool plus despite an excellent contact rate. With a bad team context in the Royals, he’s an avoid in the hobby for me, and he doesn’t seem to be an important part of the team’s future either.
We can’t blame the injuries anymore. Nick Yorke has a floor, but simply doesn’t have enough power projection to be a “significant” hobby prospect. He hit 13 HR at AA in 2023, but I don’t know if he’ll ever get much higher. His hit tool does have projection, and putting up a .350 OBP in AA at age 21 indicates it could maybe be plus, but his Whiff% is a bit high to say that for now. With little speed and defensive limitations, he has less real life value than he does hobby value. I’m still a sell on Yorke.
Fellow AA 21-year old Petey Halpin is a bit of a light version of Yorke offensively – 9 HR, .312 OBP on the surface, but more similar underneath the hood. What Halpin adds that Yorke doesn’t is plus speed and the ability to play CF. Yorke is definitely a better prospect for the hobby but they’re closer in skill than they are in cost to acquire, as Halpin costs almost nothing. With that speed and defense he’s very likely to at least make it to Cleveland by 2025.
Bryce Jarvis looks more like a back-end starter than anything, even with an effective-but-uninspiring 21 inning MLB relief role debut in his pocket. In the eyes of the hobby there’s not a lot of shine from being a first-rounder remaining, nor should there be entering his age-26 season. He’ll need to show he’s better than Ryne Nelson in spring to snap a rotation spot, or he’ll just be one of the first arms up when injuries happen.
Drew Romo will almost certainly be a big-leaguer as soon as this year, but as far as hobby impact? Meh. His strength is defense, and he’s pretty great in all aspects of the catching position. He makes enough contact and has enough pop to project as a starter, but he’ll almost certainly be a bottom of the order bat. We’re talking about a 15 HR, Coors-aided ceiling with a .320 OBP as a realistic ceiling. But Rockies collectors should absolutely still be all over him.
The White Sox pulled the trigger to acquire prospects Zach DeLoach & Prelander Berroa this offseason – a deal that has quite a high ceiling as soon as 2024 for the Sox. DeLoach will compete with three other OFs (Dominic Fletcher, Gavin Sheets, and Oscar Colás) for two(?) roster spots – it should be a completely meritorious battle. Deloach has shown better game power than any of them lately, posting a 23 HR and .481 SLG in AAA in 2023. He's a bit of a wild swinger (expect a 30 K%) but his overall approach is solid and his quality of contact has been excellent. Also a decent enough defender, I’d expect him to surprise many on the south side this year and get to double digit HR in the majors given 250 AB’s. To me, with a clear opportunity ahead, he’s one of the easier buys in this checklist. He could be this year’s Nolan Jones (without the Coors effect).
The A’s don’t care too much about Joe Boyle’s command and control issues. They’ll take the value of the raw stuff that’s not particularly hittable instead. The dude allowed just a .198 BAA with a 12.89 K/9 in the minors last year. Truly impressive stuff, and that continued in his 3-start debut. I think all this gives him the inside track to be in the rotation on Opening Day. It’s a nice feather in his cap – but just keep in mind this is Oakland, and he’s likely to run a 12-14 BB%. That’s Edward Cabrera territory – and he should remain valued as such until he proves that wrong.
Slade Cecconi has really good stuff and an organization that values it, but at some point performance matters. That’s never happened, underpinned by a 6.37 ERA in AAA – it’s bad even for Reno. He was a hair better in his August debut where he filled a swing-man role for a few weeks, but it’s not a lot to build on. It’s unclear what his role will be in 2024.
Now 25, Hudson Haskin has been swallowed up by the depth of talent in the Orioles organization, and it didn’t help that he was down with hamstring and hip injuries in 2023 (the latter of which required surgery). He’ll look to prove his plus speed and potential average hit/power combo deserves a shot at the majors sometime this year. If he rebounds, he’d be a nice trade chip.
In a shallower release A.J. Vukovich and Rece Hinds would get their own write-ups, but they’re really similar players. They both played all year at AA and showed serious power and enough athleticism to steal a few bases, but significant K issues. They also don’t make up for it enough with getting on base. If that improves, or they just make more contact, they would be significant prospects for the hobby.
Kala’i Rosario is in the same boat as far as power and a lower contact rate, but he showed marked improvement in 2023 in getting on base. He’s not a great athlete though, and he’ll get his first taste of AA in 2024. He’s a darker horse than the other two, but it’s still easy to see him being worthwhile in the hobby.
It’s been nothing but a downward trend since Robert Hassell III’s trade to the Nationals. Touted for his hit tool, his K% ballooned to over 30% in 2023 at AA and the batted ball results are no better. In over 500 AB’s at that level his OBP and SLG are both under .320. I get that even now he’s still a hair young for the level, but I personally feel this is a slope, not a nadir, that doesn’t have a strong chance of leveling out. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong about the offense, because his defense and speed are not such elite assets that assure him a floor.
Zac Veen also ostensibly looks like he’s in a downward spiral, but while I urge caution, I’m not as worried. He and Hassell’s contact rates are identical, but Veen’s overall approach is better and has speed that plays very well on the basepaths. But my primary reason for less worry is that Veen was playing with an injured wrist for a year, which seems like it completely sapped (what was average) game power. Now that it’s repaired, I think he still has a realistic shot at being a 20/20 player, but he’s at least a year away from starting down that path in the majors. He’s not a buy for me really because his cost to acquire hasn’t dipped enough – he’s being valued as a future MLB starter with some impact, and I’m not sure that’s a 50th percentile outcome right now.
Luke Little is strictly a reliever these days, but it’s not easy hitting off a 6’8” lefty that throws 97 and compliments it with a sweeper that’s a 16 MPH velocity difference. It won’t be this year but there’s some high leverage potential in his future. He’ll at least see some significant time with the Cubs this year.
Marco Raya is every bit as promising as the starting pitchers in the section above, but he lacks experience in the upper minors as the Twins treat him cautiously because of shoulder issues. It’s what made him not make his pro debut until 2022, and an early-2023 slowdown had his organization keep the kid gloves on the entire season. That said, he performed well enough to reach AA. I don’t think there’s much of a chance he debuts this year. Though his balanced mix of above average offerings and projectable plus command is intriguing, I think he needs to hit the 80-90 inning benchmark before he’s considered for a role in the majors.
For a player who was literally thrown to the wolves at AA after a so-so year at Low-A, David Calabrese was OK. The 15 HR in his age-20 season are a nice pairing to his plus speed. I don’t think the year was great for his development overall, as a 79 wRC+ isn’t good for anybody, but everything else is to be taken with a grain of salt. Thanks Angels. You’ve thrown a cloud of mystery on one of my favorite players at the time of release.
The reason TINSTAPP is a thing is largely because of injury. These SP prospects are not to be given up on yet, but their injury history does not paint a positive picture. Ian Seymour has shown the most promise of this bunch overall and is the likeliest to make it as a SP – in 2024 he’ll be ramping back into a full season post-TJ after 43 innings of rehab-type starts. CJ Van Eyk and Trent Palmer also made it back from the same injury in a limited capacity, including the AFL. After having thoracic outlet surgery in 2022, Cole Henry hasn’t looked the same – it was essentially a rehab year for him in 2023 as well, but it’s not promising. Carson Ragsdale was second in all of the minors in K in 2021, but shoulder (again with the TOS) then elbow issues have limited him to 33 innings since. Still just 22, Carter Baumler has never had health as a pro, but what we’ve seen so far is pretty good. Finally, Nick Bitsko, the prep righty taken 24th overall, has only thrown 26 innings as a pro. Who knows what ceiling health would grant him.
Daxton Fulton was one of my pre-season breakout picks for 2023 after his age-20 season where he earned a promotion to AA and impressed in his brief time there with a .125 BAA and 11.1 K/9. Of course, it did not go as expected in 2023 – though he was rounding into form before he went down. He underwent internal brace surgery in June – his second elbow surgery after a high school TJ – so now at 22 at best he’s facing a season of limited workload, and at worst a completely lost season.
Former #4 overall pick Asa Lacy has a long way to go. With him there’s no linear recovery from injury to map out – it’s his back that has limited him to 28 innings since 2021. Even when it was a shoulder injury, it was his back that caused it, due to the poor mechanics he forced on himself. He’ll look to continue his journey at AA in 2024, but it’ll surely be as a reliever and we have no idea exactly how he’ll look.
Freddy Zamora and Trei Cruz are two sides to the same proximal SS prospect coin. Cruz has a little more power, Zamora a little more hit, but neither have supporting aspects of their game to force their way to the majors now as 25 YO’s.
Case Williams was one of the worst pitchers in the Eastern League from a performance perspective, but he was also just 21. It’s a terrible system (Colorado) for pitcher development as well, but in the hobby there’s a Sisyphean need to at least have a little interest in every pitcher that reaches the upper minors at a young age. And he has combined for 230 IP the last two years!
Pitcher quick hits (almost all were college arms): I still think Landon Knack is better off as a starter than a reliever, and having been put on the 40-man the Dodgers see value in him, but it’s probably as the 7th or 8th man in their SP pecking order…Clayton Beeter has the stuff to be a high-quality reliever, but despite very poor command he’s been an innings-eater, so he remains in the mix to start games in the Bronx later this year…Tanner Burns was converted to a long relief role midway through 2023 at AA in an effort to deodorize his command issues. It mostly worked for his effectiveness, but it’s not a good sign for a player who’s development has trended negatively for awhile now, in an organization that’s normally good with pitching dev….Jeff Criswell has no MLB experience and stands as an older arm without a plus pitch in the Rockies system – it’s a pretty bad hobby combination, but he could make his debut this year….Shane Drohan was taken by the White Sox in the Rule V draft this off-season, so he’ll get a chance in spring training to see if he fits as either a swing-man or bullpen lefty for the 2024 season. Drohan does have a good change, but little else….Kyle Nicolas was converted to a relief role and debuted in Pittsburgh’s bullpen in 2023, where it seems like he’ll be in the mix to occupy some middle innings this year…Kudos to Ian Bedell for finally putting together a healthy season. He just needs to show equivalent performance at a higher level to have a bit of hobby relevance. He’ll see AA for the first time at age 24 this year…Dane Acker and Ryan Murphy also just now worked themselves into health for the first time as a pro, but though they saw time in AA they’ve been been less impressive so far…Mitchell Parker looks the part of a pitchability lefty – the only thing he’s missing is command, and that will keep him at a #5 SP projection in a poor system (Washington)…Ryan Jensen is riding the waiver carousel this off-season because he does have a plus fastball, but his poor command has kept him from making his debut…The only things I hear about Adam Seminaris these days as a Brewers fan is that he’s more likely to make it to the majors as a lefty reliever, but he hasn’t moved to that role yet…Justin Lange only has 13 IP above Low-A and his control has been quite poor. But entering only his age-22 season, there’s still time...Also on the younger side, JJ Goss threw his second consecutive season on 90 IP, at High-A for 2023. But he was hit around a lot more this year, and without a good fastball will need to show more pitchability moving forward.
College bat quick hits: Dillon Dingler will certainly see time in the majors, but he doesn’t have enough offensive impact or make enough contact to be more than a backup…There have always been some pretty big red flags with Casey Martin’s hit tool, and when he got to AA for the first time at age 24, it was exposed as such. With elite raw speed and having improved on defense at SS though, there’s a chance he makes it to majors in a bench capacity… Zavier Warren finally found a defensive home at corner infield, and his above average contact skills and fringe-average power should eventually get him to the majors, also in a reserve capacity…Jimmy Glowenke looks the part of a MLB-quality light-hitting bench-util type, but he’s still at least a year away from seeing time in the majors…2023 AA players Jordan Nwogu, Gage Workman, and Zach Daniels all hit the trifecta of striking out too much, not having enough power as a one-off tool, and not getting on base enough to escape the fringes of being a prospect….Also at AA in 2023, Trevor Hauver and Alerick Soularie do get on base enough and have a hair more power, but are still fringy prospects because of K issues. Soularie also missed quite a bit of time with injury, and with his speed may have not been in this quick hit section were he healthy...Jack Blomgren and Zach Britton are two 25-YO bats who we really just didn’t see much of in 2023, but they both excel at getting on base, so can’t be written off just yet…Bradlee Beesley is the only UDFA from this product still playing for an organization, and was good enough that he should stick around in AA for at least this year.
Prep bat quick hits: Man, I like Austin Hendrick but he was only at High-A all year because it’s hard to have faith in the projection of a player with a 40% Whiff rate...For an organization (Cleveland) that has so many slick-fielding infielders like him, Milan Tolentino doesn’t stand out. Many of those other players have better hit tools as well (and equivalent poor power), so it’s hard to see an ascent to the majors… With Werner Blakely there’s been a bit of failure to launch as his ultra-projectable body hasn’t ever filled out. His defense ticked back to where he’s now seen as a 3B exclusively, and his pitch identification remains poor. He’s still only 22 though and will be at AA this year, so we’ll see how it plays out. …Sammy Infante looks very much like a longshot now as well. He hit 17 HR in 2022 but in an effort to make more contact he changed his approach, which sapped his power completely and was only a marginal contact improvement…It was another lost year of development for Carson Tucker as he dealt with injuries on 3 occasions and now sits at under 300 pro PA’s. Now 22, we still don’t know what he’d look like as a healthy infielder… As much as I personally wanted it to happen, it doesn’t look like Isaiah Greene is going to be a thing. It’s kinda just the downside of a lottery-ticket type… Similarly and more surprisingly, time is running out on the hobby significance of former 1st-rounder Ed Howard.
Topps really had their hand forced with this release – there were a lot of high-probability relievers drafted in 2020, and a solid number of those made it into the product due to the draft’s lack of depth. Among those that remain prospects with a good shot at the majors in a relief role are Zach McCambley, R.J. Dabovich, Tyler Brown, Liam Norris, Holden Powell, Christian Chamberlain, and Eric Orze. Norris was the only prep draftee of the bunch, and none of these guys figure to be high-leverage arms.
Summary
The best names of this product are still unproven in the majors or not at their ceilings (except Spencer Strider). It’s still very much a prospect product today, and that’s pretty fun. It runs deep with players that will have productive careers in the MLB. A bigger proportion of those are pitchers (not Topps’ fault) than usual, so for those that don’t collect the position, it can be rough. In fact, perhaps other than Evan Carter, there isn’t even a hitter without undeniable warts in the hobby context. This is product that has a lot of positives, but I’d urge caution before doing anything like buying wax — we’re more likely to see 20 players with 8-year MLB careers than 10 with multiple All-Star appearances.