Recently, I was able to see the Clearwater Threshers face off against the Tampa Tarpons in three games within the six-game series in mid-April and yes, this is the series that ultimately made national headlines after a fracas on Sunday’s series finale. Stats shown will be for the full 6-game series and Prospects Live rankings will be for the prospect’s respective organization.
Of note, if you look at any games on Savant and analyze pitch placement to where it’s showing the strike zone, we have a different strike zone in the Florida State League (MLB calls it the “ideal” strike zone) that’s shorter and wider than what is traditional. That sometimes causes issues moving from college or FCL to Single-A FSL and it frequently causes pitchers to perform poorly in the first game or so.
Single-A Clearwater Threshers (Philadelphia Phillies) – 4-2 series record
The Phillies have their Single-A affiliate stocked full of top-30 prospects and I was fortunate to see many of them put on a show this past series. They absolutely dominated the Tarpons, and all showed very good plate discipline. We’ve noted before that the Phillies system doesn’t have a ton of depth and that’s shown here. Crawford and Ricketts were the only batters that really put on a show, and both are ranked in our Phillies Top 30 list.
OF Justin Crawford (2022 1st Rd., Overall #17; PL #3) – 4-for-9, 2 BB, 2 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 0 K
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
The son of All-Star MLB outfielder, Carl Crawford (Justin’s nickname is “Carl” within the organization apparently), Crawford is the Lightning McQueen of the Phillies. It’s appropriate that their main color is red.
Crawford is a tall and very thin lefty bat with a ton of speed. I clocked him a few times running to 1B just under 3.90 seconds which is easily an 80-grade run speed. Crawford has good baserunning skills and plays within his limits. In the first 11 games of the season culminating with the Tampa series, he stole six bases with two of them coming in this series. He has good bat speed and ended the week with the 2nd best batting average behind Ricketts. Crawford is limited to fringe average power on his best days, but he doesn’t necessarily need it with the speed he has, as he beat out a few throws to 1st.
Crawford has an open stance at the plate, conducive to allowing him to jet down the line to beat out throws. He faced most of this pitching staff and all the defense on the bases last year in FCL, so he should be familiar with their stuff which probably helped with the BA of .444 for the 3 games played.
His speed also helps in the outfield where he was able to manage the large CF at Steinbrenner Field with ease. His routes look polished. He needed a relay from deep LCF (about 400-ish feet) to the SS for an attempted out at 2B, but he didn’t get it to 2B in time. With lots of room to build muscle, that’s likely something that can be improved.
Crawford likely will not last too much longer in Single-A Clearwater the way he’s going and should be in High-A Jersey Shore in no time.
Gabriel Rincones, Jr. (2022 3rd Rd., Overall #93; PL #7)- 5-for-20, 3 BB, 5 R, 1 RBI, 3 SB, 11 K
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
For someone not on my radar, Rincones, Jr. impressed me quite a bit despite the 11 strikeouts in 23 at-bats with a commanding presence at the plate. That’s not something that stands out, but he has the presence of a big leaguer at the plate, despite having fewer than 50 career at bats under his belt.
I don’t know if his tools are projectable long-term, but there’s a lot to work with. The report we have from last year seems to remain unchanged with a 45 OFP, with a below-average hit tool (it was noted to be questionable), and unremarkable, well-below-average defense. But, the tools are there for Phillies coaches to work with. A 48 K% is not what you’d expect from a 3rd rounder, but the Phillies must see something in him to have been drafted that high.
Jordan Viars – (2021 3rd Rd., Overall #84; PL #11) 2-for-24, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 SB, 5 K
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
Viars has struggled early so far this season as he did last season with the FCL Phillies. Viars showed off his power once during the series as a towering home run clanged off the top of RF foul pole at 111.2 MPH exit velocity, which is an improvement over last year’s top exit velo, but otherwise he really struggled at the plate with swing decisions.
Even on a day when pitchers were wild and his team beat Tampa 12-3, Viars only went 1-for-6. Granted, it was a sac ground out, but he struck out in 3 ABs that game. There’s so much potential that he had shown this series that the talent is there but is waiting to be unleashed. Viars was DH in the games I went to, so I can’t speak on his defense.
Emaarion Boyd (2022 11th Rd., Overall #332; PL #12) – 1-for-6, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 SB, 2 K
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
Boyd is another speedster on this team with 80-grade speed, clocking sub-4 second times RHB to 1B. On top of that, he has excellent baserunning skills and got a few well-timed jumps on the opposing pitcher to steal 2B.
Boyd has a crouched, open stance in the right-handed batter’s box which is part of what allows him to get to full speed in just 2 or 3 steps. He doesn’t really hit for power, with the lone single hit in the series being a grounder hit at 99 MPH exit velo to the 3B and all the other ABs being under 80 MPH. His well-below-average hit tool is also of concern, given he only has 2 doubles for extra-base hits to his career thus far after 83 PA.
Jaydenn Estanista (2019 IFA from Curacao; PL #16)– 3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 0 HR
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
Estanista threw 3.1 innings in the series opener, throwing mostly his four-seamer but mixing in a “slider” every so often. Estanista also mixed in a cutter and changeup as his slower off-speed pitches.
Looking at where the pitches landed on Savant (then choose an AB under Matchups), he had major control issues, and his slider was sinking significantly more than it was “sliding”. That is, it had a lot more vertical movement than it did horizontal. It also showed a cutter that was nearly identical to the slider, so it could be that Savant is picking up the cutter as a slider like how it called four-seamers a sinker when they’re usually the same pitch.
Estanista doesn’t throw a ton of heat, which will likely get toned down even more so he can regain some control, but the 4SFB does hit 96 MPH, with it sitting mostly at 92-94. His slider/cutter is 80-84 T87 and his changeup was thrown at 84 MPH.
He has the potential to be an exceptional arm, having thrown a 0.64 ERA last July in FCL, but I see him being used in the future as a middle reliever over a starter role.
Biggest Improvement: Caleb Ricketts (2022 7th Rd., Overall #212; PL #22) – 10-for-14, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 R, 7 RBI, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SB, 1 CS
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
Ricketts easily had the hottest bat of the week hitting .714 in the series vs. Tampa and nearly ¾ of those hits resulted in RBI. I was a fan of Ricketts last season, but he looks significantly more confident at the plate this season (wouldn’t you be if you were hitting that well?). I wouldn’t be surprised if Ricketts was a top-10 prospect when we re-rank prospects later this season. He’s shown that much improvement.
In nearly the same span of time as what he spent with Clearwater last year, he is ahead in nearly every statistic except for BABIP, which is essentially identical to last year, with some stats like RBI significantly ahead of the pace he had last year. If there’s anything of mild concern, it’s his K rate. Of the 14 AB, he only struck out 3 times (21%). Not terrible, but “average” which is how we would grade that. He didn’t work any walks, but given how much he’d gotten on base, and worked a slash of .714/.857/.714/1.571 in this series, I’m ok with that.
Ricketts has an average frame with some room to build. He’s not historically much of a home run hitter but does have the build and discipline to likely be a 20+ HR hitter in the future. The frame also lends well to being a good backstop, and along with his quick hands, Ricketts may be the best catcher in the system.
Looking a bit into the future, Realmuto’s contract is up in 2025, and that would time well for Ricketts to get called up for an MLB debut.
Orion Kerkering (2022 5th Rd., Overall #152; PL #23) -
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
This may be a wild comp, but Kerkering reminds me of Mariano Rivera on the mound. He’s absolutely dominant with his pitches and is a commanding and confident presence on the mound. Kerkering only needed 12 pitches, of which 8 were thrown for strikes, in the 9th to secure a win for Clearwater on April 21st.
Kerkering throws absolute heat, nearly reaching triple digits on every fastball/sinker thrown (he topped out at 100.1 MPH, 99.6 MPH avg.) and he has one of the prettiest sliders I’ve seen in a pitcher at this level in a while. His slider, which sits 87-88, is consistent regarding break, moving 36” vertically and 16” horizontally.
Like the aforementioned Rivera, he only has those two pitches but also like Rivera, that’s all he needs. One thing I will note is that the release point for the two pitches is different. The sinker/fastball is released at a higher arm angle than the slider. That said, his slot is nearly over the top, but not quite ¾.
Under-the-radar: RHP Alex Rao (2022 8th Rd., Overall #242; PL unranked) - 3.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
Rao absolutely dazzled in his start on April 21 and was the best starter of the 3 that I saw in that series. He only threw 36 pitches in this start, but it seems like Philly is converting him to a starter or long reliever after he was the closer with Notre Dame previously.
Rao has an over-the-top delivery, and mostly threw SI/4SFB in this appearance. Batters swung at nearly half of the pitches thrown, mostly on his sinker, which sat 91-93, T94. His CH is his “out” pitch, with those pitches having over 50” of combined break (40” + of vertical break and 10” + of horizontal break). The CH sits around 82 MPH, and his SL, which also has a ton of vertical break, sits around 84 MPH. His slider doesn’t “slide” horizontally though, so he may ultimately ditch the pitch since his change is so effective.
Single-A Tampa Tarpons (New York Yankees) – 2-4 series record
The Tarpons have the 2022 FCL Championship team on their roster but have shown some serious offensive and defensive struggles early with the team batting average sitting at .217 as of the end of this series. Tampa doesn’t have any Top 30 bats on the roster anymore with Spencer Jones now in High-A Hudson Valley.
Anthony Hall (2022 4th Rd., Overall #130; PL #22)
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
The top bat drafted after 1st rounder Spencer Jones, Hall had a bit of a delayed start to the season after recovering from a broken hamate in just his first pro at bat last August, then getting injured again at some point in the offseason. That said, Hall’s first professional hit came in a huge way this series with a walk-off home run to right field.
Hall has a good amount of muscle to his solid frame, and even more muscle on his upper half. He has a somewhat open stance at the plate, standing nearly parallel to the plate. Hall has some trouble, like many of his teammates, with plate discipline but I expect that will resolve itself over time.
Hall showed some poor routes playing LF and doesn’t have a ton of speed to play in the large CF at Steinbrenner Field, so defense is an early concern. There was a hot grounder hit down the LF line hit by Erick Brito on 4/18 and he was unable to get it into 3B before Brito got the triple. The throw was also off line, so even if he had gotten it there on time, the tag may not have been able to get made.
Brock Selvidge (2021 3rd Rd., Overall #92; PL #23) - 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
One of the more hyped arms in the 2021 MLB Draft having been drafted in the 3rd round, Selvidge had been pitch count restricted in FCL. Selvidge has almost met the number of pitches he threw all last season and we’re not out of April yet, just to give an idea on how restricted he was. Selvidge did, however, pitch well last season, throwing a 2.95 ERA in 42.2 IP.
But that’s last year. How did he do versus the best team in the league? Pretty damn well.
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
He threw in a good mix of pitches, from his 91 MPH 4SFB to his slider that sat low-80s. He had a rough first inning with his control, but regained control in the second. He does not lack any confidence on the mound. He could be throwing pitches over the batter’s head or spike pitches in the dirt, and he would still strut around the mound on a strikeout.
The Yankees have good depth in pitching, and it’s hard to place where he could realistically land in the Yankees’ bullpen long-term. I think once he refines his control, he may stick as a starter, but wouldn’t be surprised if they move him to a long reliever role, which is something the current Yankees bullpen lacks.
Hayden Merda (2022 17th Rd., Overall #520; PL Unranked) – 5 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
Drafted out of D-II Azusa Pacific, Merda has been one of those fun back end-of-the-draft finds by the Yankees so far. This was only his second professional appearance as a Yankee, having gone 4 scoreless innings prior to this start vs. Clearwater.
Merda has a quirky motion, with almost a stutter or hitch on the latter half of his motion before his arm swings around for the pitch. It’s like that of Angels LHP Aaron Loup, but Merda’s isn’t as quirky of a wind-up. His arm slot is a little lower than a ¾ and is nearly side arm.
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
I understand the Yankees prefer side-arm throwing as it’s better mechanically and induces less stress on the arm & shoulder so this may be something to follow over time.
Merda threw mostly 4SFB/SI, with those pitches accounting for half of those thrown; they sat 87-93 T95. He also threw a SL, which sat 80-83 T85, a CU which sat 86-89 T90, and a CH, which sat 85-87 T88.
Justin Lange (2020 Padres CB-A, overall #34; traded to NYY for Luke Voit; PL Unranked) – 1 IP, 1 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
Highly lauded by Yankees fans that have been following the system closely, Lange had probably one of the worst outings you could have on a hot (in more ways than one) Sunday afternoon.
Lange is of medium build with not too much room for muscle. I would dare to say he’s a side arm thrower, but his slot is a slight bit more elevated than that. Lange threw 44 pitches in this brief start, with nearly ¾ of them as 4SFB/SI that sat at 93-95 T97. Those were his best pitches with the CU, CH, SL and CB not called for strikes. Those all sat in the mid-80s with the CB sitting at 81 MPH.
Lange has been consistently inconsistent since he’s been in Yankees pinstripes and this season is no different. In the start prior to this one, Lange went 5 innings of scoreless ball with 10 K versus a very good Dunedin (Single-A Toronto). Going into this game, he had an ERA of 1.80 and I was excited to see that he had made improvements over what I’d seen last year but that was not to be the case.
Lange was incredibly wild in this start, with 4 consecutive walks plus a hit batter coming in the second before manager Rachel Balkovec took the ball from him. In the second inning, of 29 pitches thrown, only 7 hit the strike zone, nearly ¼ of pitches thrown.
Brenny Escanio (2019 Milwaukee IFA from Venezuela, Traded to NYY for J.P. Feyereisen; PL Unranked) – 6-for-17, 1 2B, 4 R, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 3 SB, 2 CS, 6 K
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
Escanio is at a better pace now than he was last year in regard to hits and runs scored but is also at a much worse pace with strikeouts. The aggressiveness in stolen bases means he’s at nearly double the pace he had last year. So, there’s good and bad with the infielder from the Dominican Republic.
Another good note is that his defense has been solid so far, only committing 3 errors in 15 games played.
Like many of his teammates, I don’t think his bat as it stands now can carry him too much further through the Yankees system without making drastic improvements. There’s too many infielders blocking his path forward; I would rather have 2021 1st round selection Trey Sweeney at SS over Escanio as I’m sure others following the system would.
Jared Serna (2019 IFA from Mexico, PL Unranked) – 5-for-15, 1 2B, 0 R, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB, 3 K
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
Serna is quietly impressing fans and scouts alike just as his cousin RHP Luis Serna did last year in FCL. The infielder shows a lot more offensive polish than his teammates do and plays at a little bit more of a higher level than they do, and his stats reflect that.
Serna ran a 6-3 grounder in a double-plus 4.1 seconds as a RHB and is among the team leaders in stolen bases, with fellow infielder Brenny Escanio. His speed and agility are fun to watch on hot shots down the middle with the “pie slice” in place in the FSL, but his defense can get clunky at times. He stumbled over his feet in a few plays, causing interference on one play and landing off the base in the other.
Daury Arias (2019 IFA from DR, PL Unranked) – 3-for-15, 1 2B, 1 R, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 1 SB, 5 K
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
Arias is one of the more average hitters on the team in this early stage of the season, which is a bit unsurprising if you saw him in action last season with the Florida Complex League Yankees. Arias hit a double on Tuesday (series opener), running home to 1B as a LHB in a below-average 4.3 seconds. That said, Arias is speedy enough to manage the large outfield at Steinbrenner Field, but his routes are a little raw as may be expected for international prospects at the Single-A level.
Arias is like most of the international prospects on this team in that he has plate discipline concerns. He’s already ahead on strikeouts compared to last season in FCL, and behind on nearly every other offensive metric compared to last season. Arias is more aggressive on the base paths this year, which may be more because the FSL is runner-friendly given we have the MLB pickoff rules implemented.
Under the radar: RHP Luis Velasquez (2019 IFA from DR, PL Unranked) – 2 G, 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
Velasquez jumped onto my radar in the FCL Semifinals last year when the FCL Yankees faced the FCL Red Sox. He really blew me away under the short postseason pressure as set-up man where he threw 3 innings and only allowed 2 H and 3 BB. At that level, that’s impressive.
Now that Velasquez is in full-season ball, the stakes are elevated, but he’s been able to keep up so far, throwing an ERA of 1.74, a WHIP of 0.77, and an OBA of .111. He’s a compact frame for being a pitcher: 5’ 10”/155, but with the ability to throw a four-seamer at 97 with his frame is impressive. In fact, that’s something that was discussed in the press box during his appearance on 4/23.
(John Brophy - Prospects Live)
I’m a sucker for a good curveball, so that may be the buy-in with Velasquez, and he has that textbook 12-6 curveball that he throws mid-80s. His four-seam heater nears triple digits, reaching 98 MPH; he also has a slider which sits mid-80s and a true sinker that sits low-90s. Savant sometimes shows 4SFB and SI as the same pitch, but in his case the sinker actually sinks, and the fastball has a bit of late rise to it.
Velasquez has good control for this level like his command and the fastball is incredible for his frame. There’s lots to build on, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they asked him to tone down the speed to achieve better control.