This off-season, I’ll be taking a look back at past Bowman releases. It’s more about the players and how they’re progressing in baseball within the hobby landscape, not an examination of how good or bad the product still is or can be – but that’s an easy measuring stick to summarize with. This is the second in this series. I previously wrote about 2018 Bowman Draft.
Ah yes, 2019, back when Topps didn’t jam the prospect checklist with 1st’s. Including retail paper autos, there are only 72 names – that’s less than half of what 2023 Bowman was and less than all Draft sets. As long as Topps is hitting on top-end names for the future, that approach works. And they did on this release – to date it’s a pretty expensive product.
This is the Wander Franco release. I will not categorize him anywhere below, but with his situation, concerning his cards, there are only two possibilities. First is that he’s guilty of what he’s accused of and his cards are worthless forever. Second is that nothing comes of the accusations. In that case, I don’t think there’s an unringing of the bell – just a consensus that the accusations were “seemingly untrue” or “dismissed due to a lack of evidence.” There will never be unilateral forgiveness if something like that happens, which means less demand. There would be some rebound in value, but it’s not worth hashing out the extent of it right now. Before late August, he was a really interesting case study to examine for the hobby, but it’s tactless to do so now.
THE TOP OF THE CROP
Julio Rodriguez is not only the top name in this product but the best Bowman 1st of the last five years. He’s one of the most likable personalities in baseball; he improved on a 20/20 ROY campaign by going 30/30 this year. I frequently say there’s a lot to like about a player, but there’s nothing to dislike about Julio. Still only 22, he’s deservingly one of the foremost faces of the game and figures to remain so for the next decade or more. Can you imagine when it all comes together for a truly MVP-caliber season? His hobby ceiling was already established as the moon, but it might be one of the moons of Jupiter.
Logan Webb is an ace. In real life. For the hobby, he’s a really good name, but he doesn’t have the sexy K numbers to establish himself among pitching royalty. If he maintains what he’s been doing for say, 5 more years, he’ll absolutely get there though. He just wrapped up a second season where he’ll get down-ballot Cy Young votes, and led the league in IP this year. He’s made a name for himself as a control freak. He commands his elite change-up down in zone extremely well and pairs it with a sinker to generate a ton of ground balls. This is a profile that bodes well for future performance – a wide awake sleeper for the hobby, if you will.
SOLID MAJOR LEAGUERS
Newly minted World Series champ Nathaniel Lowe was already almost 24 and at AAA when this product was released. He had a moderate amount of interest tied to that anticipated debut, but when it came it wasn’t a full shake of playing time (as is the case with many Rays), and that continued in the shortened 2020 season. Then he was traded to the Rangers and it all changed. He showed himself to be the definition of a reliable 1B with good power and a solid batting average – and it’s continued for three seasons running. When he gets into his plus raw power it turns into a 30 HR potential-type like his 2022 season where he won the AL Silver Slugger at the position, but mostly he’s going to run a .360 OBP for you with just enough pop to pass at 1B. And he’s truly a plug-and-play there. He’s played more games at 1B than anyone but Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson in the last three years, including 161 games this year (and an AL Gold Glove finalist this year). His hobby interest has ebbed and flowed, but if he keeps doing what he’s doing with the Rangers he should see steady growth.
He’s closer to a five-and-dive starter than a true innings-eating mid-rotation piece, but Cristian Javier has seen sustained periods of great success in the majors. It just wasn’t in the second half of this year. With pitching in the hobby being about what you’ve done for me lately, he’s at what I expect to be a nadir of value. He’s essentially a two-pitch, fastball-reliant pitcher. It’s the effectiveness of his slider that stepped back and made him a bit more unreliable this year. He’s also a fly ball pitcher with Minute Maid as a home park – not a great combo. Looking on the positive side, with such a simple pitch mix he’s just one tweak away from a return to that 2022 form where he had a sub-3.00 ERA and 194 K in 149 IP. NOTE that his 1st Bowman autographs are in Bowman Chrome, not this release.
Similar to Javier in recent results, Aaron Civale has long established himself as a mid-rotation arm, but has never put together a full healthy season. It’s limited his hobby interest more than Javier, and since his trade to the Rays, it’s dipped a bit more. His numbers with the Rays look ugly but there’s nothing significantly different - he just gave up a few more hits and a few more HR – there should be a rebound coming. Civale is a finesse pitcher that gets by on great command of his three different fastballs, with a curve mixed in and slider for lefties. His sinker is in the low 90’s, but his bread and butter pitch, the cutter, only averages ~88 MPH. At his best, he’s a master of inducing weak contact - and if it all comes together there’s a season or two where he could be an ace. But first he has to put together a 150 IP season.
OTHER MAJOR LEAGUERS
There’s still a lot of untapped potential in Edward Cabrera. There’s no consistency from start-to-start, and only Michael Kopech saved him from having the worst BB% of any SP with 90 IP. His outings only go as far as his fastball & curveball command takes him. It’s a shame because the command of his elite, 93 MPH change-up is quite a bit better. That said, there are a lot of ingredients here for the hobby to like – he’s a power pitcher with high-K upside. He still has the best upside of any pitcher in this release not named Logan Webb, but at 25 now it’s fair to question if he ever gets close to it before somebody decides he’s better served as a closer.
The rare Bowman paper-only autograph subject that makes it, James Outman had a great rookie year. Playing CF almost every day for the high-octane Dodgers, he fit in nicely near the bottom of the lineup where he slugged 23 HR and had a .353 OBP. Nice numbers to build on to be sure for the former 7th Round pick. The downside with Outman is that he’s already 26, so there’s not any projection of what he’s doing. Still, if this just continues there’s definite hobby slow-growth appeal – it’ll just be in his 2023 RC products as his paper autos are capped for demand.
Dean Kremer put together a perfectly serviceable season this year - it’s a #4 SP profile and doesn’t figure to be better or worse for the foreseeable future. Middling hobby interest expected there since the team context is so good.
Jose Suarez was both injured and terrible this year (with some correlation likely), but he does still appear to be in the mix to fill in as a back-end starter in 2024 with the Angels. Much less hobby interest than Kremer though.
I wouldn’t have thought Joey Bart would be playing third fiddle in a trio of catchers as the 2nd overall pick in 2019, but here we are. Blake Sabol & Patrick Bailey have made Bart largely irrelevant, with injuries contributing as well. He’s played exactly 162 MLB games since 2020 when he debuted, and the offensive results are sub-par even for a catcher. It’s possible he’s just a backup catcher from here forward – that’s a dead zone for the hobby, if it’s not obvious.
Miguel Amaya exceeded rookie limits by 1 AB in 2023 – it wouldn’t have mattered for ROY or other award consideration next year regardless. What’s more important is how he plays as a full-time MLB asset in 2024. Two things are clear from his debut: One, he’s probably not offensively ready for a full-time role yet. Two, he absolutely belongs in the majors as a backup and has potential to grow into being the starter after Yan Gomes departs. Hobby-wise, it’s a risky profile that could just be that of a backup catcher like Bart – but there’s clearly more growth potential for Amaya. Max’s Note: This assumes the Cubs pick up Yan Gomes’ 2024 option. That was not a 100% certainty as of this writing.
Rounding out the catchers we have Andrew Knizner – who’ll be 29 by the time the 2024 season starts. He’s less squarely a third-string option than Joey Bart, but definitely less hobby relevant. Knizner’s had a significant run in the majors – 255 games – and never proven himself to be more than the role in which he’s been cast. Ivan Herrera hasn’t applied much pressure yet though, so his backup catcher status could remain status quo for 2024.
Esteury Ruiz stole 67 bases this year but still put up a negative bWAR because he’s so badly miscast as a CF. If his team was better, he’d be UTIL/pinch-runner type but he’ll continue to get run in Oakland...just, maybe in LF next year guys? Anyhow, team context & lack of an above-average hit tool to go with the speed makes him not all that interesting for the hobby.
Owen Miller has had varying degrees of success in the majors – Milwaukee mostly used him in 2023, and that should remain that case next year. He’s an offense-first replaceable part that could see 100 games, but there’s not much potential for a hobby spark.
Elehuris Montero annihilates AAA pitching, but hasn’t proven himself to be a valuable offensive piece in the majors yet. Still, he could empty-power his way to 25 HR with Coors as a home park, so there’s a bit of hobby potential. But as a poor defender, I don’t think he’ll ever get the 550 PA’s he’d need to get there.
Of relief arms Keegan Thompson, Brock Burke, Eli Morgan, Jonathan Hernandez, and Genesis Cabrera, I don’t think any ever end up in truly high leverage roles. Taylor Widener is a mid-rotation SP in the KBO now, and could return to a MLB relief role at some point. Obviously hands-off of all these guys in the hobby context.
PROSPECTS OF SIGNIFICANCE
It hasn’t been a straight ascent for Noelvi Marte to Top 25 prospect status, but that’s where he sits now, especially considering his solid debut in Cincinnati. Despite great raw power, he didn’t hit 20 HR in any minor league season. It’s still a feel to hit that’s developing, but he’s never lacked in ability to make contact – that was enough for the Reds to give him 120 PA. He made the most of that, slashing .316/.366/.456. He’s a work in progress at 3B, but as a former SS pretty much everyone thinks it’s a viable defensive home. The Reds have a glut of young talent, and Marte is one of several centerpieces. I don’t think his impact will be near-peak in 2024, but there’s very obvious .280 BA / 30 HR, All-Star potential in future years. And at just 22, there’s a lot of time to get that hobby superstar ceiling. NOTE that his 1st Bowman autographs are in Bowman Chrome, not this release.
It’s really easy to look at Marte and Marco Luciano side by side – they’re the same age, and they have basically played at the same levels in similar positions. Luciano’s raw power might be a touch above Noelvi’s, but he’s gotten to less of it in his minor league career. His hit tool is an issue because he’s so aggressive, but when he makes contact it tends to be quite hard. He didn’t really earn his call-up after 18 games at AAA, but the future is now in San Francisco. Like Marte, he won’t be anywhere near his projected peak in 2024 should he make the team. If he hits 20 HR with a .320 OBP and a sub-30 K%, be happy Giants fans – things are trending positively. He’ll be given a shot at the opening day SS job as Brandon Crawford moves on, but his ultimate defensive home doesn’t matter for the hobby – there’s options. As has been the case for the entirety of his ascent through the minors, he’s high-risk, high-reward. He’s never been cheap, and won’t be until he has prolonged struggles at the MLB level – there could be that perception in 2024, so watch for buying opportunities.
Ronny Mauricio checks many of the same boxes as Marte & Luciano – it’s a median outcome just south of both, but there’s a definite possibility Ronny comes out on top of the three. Mauricio had a fantastic AAA season where had a career-best mark in K% and SLG, which earned him a trip to Queens in September. It didn’t go nearly as well there, as his power didn’t translate and his hit tool – which was always suspect, was exposed as such. He’s not just aggressive like Luciano, but he still chases too much. That’s something that will always affect how much power he gets to, and on a high-pressure team like the Mets, could cost him a roster spot as he auditions this spring at LF or 2B. Still, with as much power potential he has in the market he plays in, there’s an excellent hobby ceiling.
Orelvis Martinez went from being a power-only curiosity in 2022 to legit Top-100 prospect this year. He still strikes out a lot and it got worse after his promotion to AAA -- a sign that he still needs more time yet in the minors. But it was improvements in his pitch selection and a slightly flatter approach angle that led his turnaround – both of those things are not easy things to accomplish, and to me it bodes well for his ability to adapt. His game power is tremendous. Among players near his age (he’ll be 22 for all of 2024), only Jhonkensy Noel has more HR in the last two years. We can see there’s a Khris Davis-type ceiling, and with the right hobby context, that’s significant. NOTE that his 1st Bowman autographs are in Bowman Chrome, not this release.
Diego Cartaya is definitely the lowest of this tier for the hobby, and he struggled mightily at AA in 2023. However, he’s still only entering his age-22 season and did hit 19 HR. There’s still much more polish to be added to the defensive side of his game as well, but there’s little doubt that he remains a catcher. So since he wasn’t getting to the majors anyway, we should be OK with the 2023 struggles if it means adaptation in 2024. If you were in on him, there’s no reason to get out now. He’s still a Top 100 real-life prospect because of that power and high-end defensive potential. Hobby interest should be lukewarm. But since he’s in an organization with such an aggressive collectors' market, it’s still pretty robust.
OTHER PROSPECTS
Only two pitching prospects with a chance to start remain active in this product, both of whom have seen a little time in the majors. One is swingman Tommy Romero, who saw a little time in the majors in 2022 but took a step back this year and didn’t see any time with the Nationals. It’s a completely different story for Lyon Richardson. He’s solidly a name on the rise, even for the hobby, with his impressive first year back from TJ. Across 60 IP in AA & AAA, he held hitters to a .210 BA, allowing just 2 HR and had almost 13 K/9. His command hasn’t returned quite enough yet to call him a future mid-rotation piece, but he’ll still only be 24 for the 2024 season.
Blaze Alexander has nowhere to play in Arizona and he’s yet to put together a full, healthy season. But make no mistake, he’s a good hitter with some pop and has a knack for both finding the barrel and getting on base. If you smash together his 2022-23 campaigns in the high minors it's a 27 HR, .298/.395./.504 line. He’s behind Jordan Lawlar defensively, but he’s good enough to stick at SS or move to another infield position. His bigger issue is with his hobby context – he now heads into his age-25 season as an infielder that doesn’t have any plus tools, no time in the majors, and no clear path to start there in 2024. He definitely has a ceiling as a second division regular, but it’s probably not with Arizona.
Victor Mesa Jr is now a better real prospect than his brother ever was, but it’s mostly because his CF defense has become excellent. His power is also good. Those two things could get him to Miami as soon as next year, but he has a lot of hurdles to clear in the pitch selection and approach department before he profiles as a MLB regular. At 22 for most of next year, he’s still a worthwhile sleeper for the hobby.
Mateo Gil, Mason Martin, and Ronaldo Hernandez are all hanging around in the high minors and are young enough to have hobby relevance if they make an unexpected leap. I’m just not making that bet. Brewer Hicklen had a nice power surge in 2022 and debuted, but it looks like a mirage now – to give some gravity, he was moved to the Phillies for cash considerations. He’ll also be 28 and has just 4 MLB PA’s to his credit. It’s a similar story for Gabriel Cancel, J.P. Martinez, Rylan Bannon, Victor Victor Mesa (left the Marlins Triple-A team in July and was placed on their restricted list), and Andrew Bechtold. Any of these guys could be released this offseason.
Matt Krook debuted as reliever for the Yankees this year – he’ll be in the mix for low-leverage innings in 2024. For Will Stewart, now in the Marlins system, it’s been a far fall from where he was at release. He joins Nolan Hoffman as being on his last legs as a pro.
It’s definitely not hobby relevant, but Kungkuan Giljegiljaw (Li-Jen Chu in this release) went to the CPBL (China) and has proved himself quite valuable – he led that league in HR this year!
SUMMARY
This is the picturesque view of what a good Bowman product looks like 3.5 years later. One established superstar, and a solid 10-12 names to fill out the top and middle. There’s not a lot left on the low-end with potential, but that’s completely fine for a bunch of 22-28 YO’s! For years to come 2019 Bowman will still have widespread appeal due not just Julio, but at least one of Marte, Luciano, and Mauricio. See, J2 classes do work out sometimes!