Helping to keep everyone up-to-date on what is coming out and what might be worthy of your time in the Baseball Card Hobby for the current week. Check out our Discord for more discussion on this and any other hobby chatter - Prospects Live Discord.
This week there is one scheduled release - 2023 Bowman Sterling. We also have 2023 Panini Chronicles 1st Off The Line (FOTL) going through the usual Dutch Auction sales this week prior to next week’s full release. 2023 Onyx Vintage Extended is also on the calendar, but as always with Onyx and Leaf releases, their dates are highly subject to change. There were quite a few products that showed up as unannounced releases for Topps last week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we get at least one or more this week (Bowman Chrome Sapphire perhaps?).
2023 Bowman Sterling
A mid-tier, prospect-focused product, 2023 Bowman Sterling is scheduled to release on Friday, November 3rd.
There is one configuration - a regular Hobby box. Each Hobby box comes with 5 mini-boxes that contain one pack. Each pack has 6 cards with one auto guaranteed per mini-box for a total of 5 autos per Hobby box. Currently Blowout is selling boxes for $374.95. Last year Topps sold Hobby boxes for $349.99 and Cases for $3,799.89. There are no retail formats for this product. ***Topps is selling these as expected on Friday, November 3rd. Hobby boxes maintain the same prices as last year at $349.99 with a customer limit of 4 boxes. Case prices have increased over last year, selling for $4,073.38 with a customer limit of 2.
The design is pretty basic - a border-less card with diamond geometric shapes being the predominant design element behind the player action shot. Most cards are on chrome stock with the exception of the Sterling Tek insert and insert autos - those are on acetate as an homage to the High Tek products of the past. All autos outside of multi-player autos should be on card.
No checklist has been released. The product is typically split between prospects and rookies for the base. The autos usually are heavily weighted towards prospects, and then rookies, and then a few vets sprinkled throughout. In the sell sheet, we get Michael Harris II with a base card, Elijah Green with a prospect auto, Corbin Carroll with a Rookie Tek auto, Mike Trout with an insert auto, and then Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Jackson Holliday with a Triple-Auto. ***Nothing jumped out to me with the checklist. It was put together pre-trade deadline is about the only thing I noticed - for example, Drew Gilbert has both auto and base with the Houston Astros.
I like Bowman Sterling, but as usual, I tend to avoid personal box rips and breaks of the product. It’s tough for each auto to average $50+ in value to get you towards what is likely the break even point. I do like buying autos in the aftermarket because I can usually find a majority of the prospects in the checklist for under $20 for their base autos. I don’t see that changing at all this year.
2023 Panini Chronicles FOTL
The multi-brand, lower end product will be going through it's 1st Off The Line (FOTL) Dutch Auction on the Panini website on Wednesday, November 1st. The starting price will be $300 and the floor will be $130. The full product release will occur next week, currently scheduled for Wednesday, November 8th. ***Update - the Dutch Auction hit the floor price of $130.
As usual with FOTL products, you will find a couple of lower numbered, exclusive parallels to the product, in this case with Optic and Spectra. Other brands shown in the product are Crown Royale, Noir, Origins, Mosaic, Crusade, and Studio.
The checklist has to be released, but it likely continues the 2023 Panini Baseball theme - prospects (at least players not yet on an MLB roster prior to 2023), Bobby Witt Jr., and ex-MLB players, alive and no longer with us. Prospects teased are Elly De La Cruz, Marcelo Mayer, Druw Jones, and Francisco Álvarez. Ex-MLB players teased are Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, Jackie Robinson, and Albert Pujols. Strangely, Marcelo Mayer card mock-up is for an Origins “Rookie” auto and includes the “RC” logo. The problem is that Mayer has never played beyond Double-A and should certainly NOT be considered a rookie - hopefully this was simply an oversight in the mock-up and not what the actual card will look like.
I like Chronicles a lot, but it’s more because of the fun of getting all of these brands in a single product. It’s definitely not from an ROI perspective, as that is usually not great, and even more so this year without any licensing. While I won’t be participating in the FOTL Dutch Auction, I will definitely find a way to get something from Chronicles in some form or fashion.
2023 Onyx Vintage Extended
The low-end prospect-focused product, 2023 Onyx Vintage Extended is tentatively scheduled for release on Friday, November 3rd.
There is only one format - a regular Hobby box. Each Hobby box comes with a single pack of 4 cards - 2 base cards and 2 autos. Blowout is currently selling boxes for $49.95.
The design follows the early release of 2023 Onyx Vintage, so nothing much to discuss there. However, Onyx did tease a special insert auto for Ethan Salas branded as “Nero” that is supposed to be hand numbered. It’s quite different from the base design and is likely to be a semi-desirable card. As with all Onyx products, all autographs are expected to be on card, which is a really nice bonus at this price point.
The checklist has not been released, but beyond Salas, the images have teased mostly prospects and one ex-MLB player, the typical Onyx formula. Some of those signers include Aidan Miller, George Lombard Jr., Chase Davis, Paul Skenes, Junio Caminero, Jose Canseco, and Colt Keith.
I enjoy Onyx products for the on-card autos and relatively cheap prices to rip personal boxes, hop in a break or two, and/or buy singles. But I also understand that, outside of the top product signers (Salas, Ohtani in 2022), the ROI on these cards are often relatively low.