2023 Topps Update Series is here and if potential ace pitchers are your thing when it comes to rookie cards, this may be one of the better Flagship products in recent memory in that regard. We get the true rookie cards of potential aces Eury Pérez, Grayson Rodriguez, Bobby Miler, and Mason Miller among plenty of other strong rookie pitchers.
If you’re looking for hitters, on the other hand, it’s going to be a tall order to fulfill. This is the first product preview since I started doing them that I don’t have a Tier 1 hitter at the time of writing. The most prominent rookie hitters (Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, etc.) are in the product (as you can see in the header image), but only with less desirable rookie debut cards, inserts, and autos. Their coveted Flagship true rookie cards were produced earlier in the year in Series 1 or Series 2 (or in Topps Chrome for Chrome Flagship). As I’ve already covered those players previously, I will only focus on players with true rookie cards in the product.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Ceiling Grade
Ceiling has been assigned to each player to provide a quick glimpse into their hobby impact.
Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc).
Arizona Diamondbacks
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Gabriel Moreno, C, 23
Arguably the best hitter in the product, Moreno, as the top Blue Jays prospect in 2022, was traded to the Diamondbacks along with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for Daulton Varsho this past off-season. It was quite the shock to be honest even with the logjam at the position in Toronto and Moreno has done everything we expected of him in his first full season at the MLB level.
Moreno’s calling card is his hit tool - he’s a contact machine. He rarely swings and misses with his whiff% in the top 20th percentile, and his strikeout rate at under 20% further emphasizes his contact skills. His Contact rate, Zone Contact rate, and Outside Zone Contact rate are all roughly in the top 20th percentile as well. His spray chart is also a thing of beauty, using the entire field. The power side of the equation, however, is average to below average. Moreno’s not trading contact for power, so even if he does have the ability to put the ball over the fence, he’s not going to wait out a pitcher for their mistake that he can launch. He’s never hit more than 12 home runs in a pro season, and that one time he did hit 12 was back in 2019. This year, he only hit 7 home runs in 111 games. If you add in the three or so weeks he missed to injury, he still may only get to a max of 10 home runs.
If Moreno suddenly starts popping 20+ home runs while maintaining a .280 - .300 batting average, as Matt Thompson said on twitter after Moreno hit a playoff home run, Moreno is a star. Until then, he be a contact-oriented catcher on a young and fun team that can drive some hobby interest, but is likely capped at Tier 2. Ceiling: 7
Tier 3
Brandon Pfaadt, P, 24
One of the trendiest players coming into the 2023 season given the rotation openings in Arizona, Pfaadt (pronounced “Fought”) debuted at the beginning of May and then bounced back and forth between Triple-A and Arizona until he finally stuck on the MLB roster after the All-Star break. Part of the reason for that pre-season hype, beyond the simple team context/rotation opportunity, was Pfaadt having led all of the minor leagues in 2022 in strikeouts.
Pfaadt has a starter’s arsenal, starting with a four-seam fastball sitting at 93-94 mph. His main secondary is a plus sweeper/slider that pairs well with the fastball and produces excellent results. The rest of the arsenal is a change-up, sinker, and curveball which all produce inconsistent results. Pfaadt’s command is strong and he lives around the zone - it’s one of the main reasons he was able to dominate minor league hitters but wasn’t able to do it regularly against big league hitters. A 6.2% walk rate is great and a 22.3% strikeout rate to pair with that isn’t bad. However, he was just too hit-able. He gave up a ton of hard contact and doesn’t get enough ground balls to counteract that. The change-up was the worst offender there, giving up a hard contact rate over 42% and the four-seamer wasn’t far behind.
All the ingredients are there for Pfaadt to be a mid-rotation starter. He needs to refine his pitch selection, perhaps ditching the change-up, and work on the fastball to get it less hit-able (easier said than done. The strength of the sweeper makes him a viable arm one way or another. His Ceiling is that Tier 2 SP2 type pitcher if everything falls into place. Ceiling: 7
Dominic Fletcher, OF, 26
Fletcher was a 2019 2nd round pick of the Diamondbacks and has simply grinded every year, getting better and better, to move from a fringe prospect to a potential everyday starter with excellent contact skills and competent defense.
The Diamondbacks upper level minors are notoriously hitter-friendly environments and Fletcher took full advantage of that by hitting over .300 in both Double-A and Triple-A while also accumulating 15 home runs between the two levels. The home runs are likely a bit inflated but the batting average isn’t. Fletcher showed that in a super small sample size of 28 games at the big league level in 2023 by hitting .301 and keeping a relatively low strikeout rate of just under 22%. He was a bit ground ball heavy during that pro debut, and his walk rate dropped down a few percentage points than what he’s showed in the minor leagues. I expect those will both regress positively towards his minor league numbers.
At worst Fletcher is a Tier None strong-side platoon outfielder and at best, he’s an everyday player that profiles as a pesky two-hole hitter with low-end double digit home run power hitting .300. Ceiling: 6
Tier None
Carlos Vargas, P, 23
Vargas is a flame throwing bullpen arm with command issues. He throws a four-seamer that regularly hits triple digits and averages 99 with a sinker in the same neighborhood averaging 98. His “off-speed” pitch is a cutter in the low 90’s. If he figures it out, he could be a future lights-out closer, giving him about as high a Ceiling as you can have as a reliever. Right now the command keeps him from being used in any high leverage situation. Ceiling: 4
Atlanta Braves
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Dylan Dodd, P, 25
I first looked into Dodd with the 2022 Bowman Chrome preview and fell in love with his change-up. I think it’s fair to say I’m a sucker for a good change-up, and his sure drew me in to evaluate him as a back-end starter to mid-rotation starter with very little bullpen risk and a Tier 3 ranking. Given what happened in 2023 with his mostly forgettable MLB debut as an injury replacement fill-in starter for Atlanta, I’ve come off of that initial evaluation a fair amount. He had six starts and only two of those could be considered successful. Add in all of his inconsistent starts in the minors and the ceiling looks to be more firmly a back-end starter with reliever at this point.
If Dodd can find added velocity and get into the mid-90’s with his fastball rather than the low-90’s where he currently sits, then he gets back into Tier 3. All three of his pitches - the fastball, changeup, and slider, can be plus pitches. The slider needs the most work, and ultimately hitters were simply too successful against all of his pitches. No pitch was under a .333 batting average against at the MLB level. I still like Dodd’s potential, so his Ceiling will be a bit higher than you find in Tier None, but it’s hard to ignore his 2023 results. Ceiling: 5
Braden Shewmake, SS/2B, 25
The glove first middle infielder is a former first rounder of Atlanta back in 2019. At that time, the hit tool coupled with the strong defense was someone I thought could eventually be in line to take over the starting shortstop job from Dansby Swanson if/when Swanson left. Fast forward to 2023 and there just isn’t a first division starting offensive profile here. Shewmake won’t strikeout much and will steal double digit bases, but there’s very little power and not enough solid contact to hit above league average. He’s now more likely as a utility glove or in a strong side platoon rotation than a player that will have much future impact to drive any fantasy interest. Ceiling: 4
Jared Shuster, P, 25
Coming into the season it was an open question on whether Shuster or Dodd were going to get the fifth starter role out of Spring Training. Surprisingly the Braves actually kept both on the MLB roster to start the season, but Shuster seemed to have a bit more prominence over Dodd and was given almost twice the amount of opportunities to seize a full time role on the MLB roster. Unfortunately, Shuster’s results were just as uninspiring as Dodd’s. A similar profile with a similar arsenal but less command and slightly less velocity, Shuster also is looking like a backend starter with some relief risk creeping in with a higher than normal ceiling in Tier None. Ceiling: 5
Baltimore Orioles
Tier 1
Grayson Rodriguez, P, 23
Coming into 2023, Rodriguez was regularly considered one of the top two pitching prospects in the game along with Andrew Painter. The Orioles were leaning into their youth movement and even though it was an open question, it soon became obvious that Baltimore was more than happy to hand one of their opening day rotation spots to Rodriguez. Things went a bit sideways there as far as the first two months of the season leading to a demotion. However, after the All-Star break he was called back up and was one of the better pitchers in baseball in the second half. Outside of his first game back, where he gave up four runs, he didn’t give up more than three runs in any game (I’m choosing to ignore his first postseason appearance where he got roughed up by a strong Rangers offense).
He’s got the full starting pitcher arsenal led by a plus, high-90s four seam fastball that gets a lot of swing and miss as well as called strikes. His change-up, slider, and curveball also all exhibit plus traits. His least used pitch is a cutter and that’s for good reason as it gets hit around the park pretty easily - I doubt we see this much moving forward. A strong strikeout rate at over 25% coupled with a good ground ball rate at almost 50% is a recipe for success. The walks are slightly higher than I’d like to see at over 8% and he gives up a bit too much hard contact on everything but the slider.
With a few small tweaks, some of which we saw in the second half (limiting walks), Rodriguez should start to approach the ace potential that we all saw for him as he came up in the minors. Ceiling: 9
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Joey Ortiz, INF, 25
Ortiz was once considered primarily a defense-only prospect, but has now developed into a plus hitter as well. While he did show some surprising pop in the minors with 19 home runs across two levels in 2022, he’s more like a 10 home run guy at the MLB level. He had a 15 game debut this year that didn’t produce any positive results, but it was such a small sample that we can ignore it. The main concern is opportunity - the Orioles are stacked with young infield talent everywhere you look.
In Triple-A this year, Ortiz had a plus zone contact rate (90%), plus swinging strike rate (7%), and above average hard hit rates. The only thing below average was the barrel rate, and that speaks to the profile of being a contact over power plate approach more than anything. As mentioned off the top, the defense is a standout tool for Ortiz and coupled with the contact skills, he’s easily going to be a useful player for the Orioles either on their bench, as an injury fill-in, or as a trade piece. The biggest thing keeping Ortiz in Tier 3 is the lack of power and the lack of everyday opportunity in Baltimore. Ceiling: 6
Tier None
None
Boston Red Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Caleb Hamilton, C/1B, 28
Since Caleb Hamilton and I share a birthday, he’s in my personal Tier 1. On the other hand, with his ugly strikeout rate and overall lack of a positive offensive profile, Hamilton is easily a Tier None player for the hobby. He’s got the arm that could find him reps as a backup catcher, but little else and is starting to age out of getting future opportunities. Ceiling: 1
Narciso Crook, OF, 27
One of the many older rookies that I simply put “Who?” next to their name on the first pass of reviewing the rookies in this product. Crook was a long-time farmhand in the Reds system, having been drafted by them in the 23rd round of the 2013 MLB Draft. He joined the Cubs as a minor league free agent for the 2022 season and got a brief four game debut in the summer. After the season, he was released and ended up signing a minor league deal with the Red Sox, spending all year with their Triple-A affiliate in Gloucester. Crooks time is running out to provide much relevancy. He’s outfield org depth at this point that can hit for some power, steal some bases, but strike out too much. He hit under .220 this year although he did walk at over a 12% clip to keep his OBP in above average territory. There’s nothing here for the hobby outside of an unlikely hot streak after an MLB call up. Ceiling: 2
Enmanuel Valdez, 2B, 24
Wrote him up in the 2022 Bowman Chrome Preview as a guy that was straddling my Tier 3 and Tier None line. The 28 minor league home runs in 2022 tipped the scales for me to push him into Tier 3 even though I was relatively skeptical that he would be a full time regular. In 2023, Valdez bounced between Triple-A and the major league level and looked more like the strong side platoon second baseman that I was concerned about. He was rarely used against left handed pitching and in general his power output this year has been average, so I’m tipping the scales the other way and pushing him down into Tier None. Ceiling: 5
Chicago Cubs
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Matt Mervis, 1B, 25
I wrote up Mash Mervis as a Tier 2 power bat in the 2023 Bowman Preview. I don’t feel like much has changed in Mervis’s profile since that write up. He did get a six week debut starting in early May and ending in mid-June when he was sent back down to Triple-A as those six weeks did not go well at all. The fact that the Cubs surprisingly found themselves in a playoff race and did not call Mervis back up to the big league squad is a very small red flag.
As said in that Bowman write up, Mervis struggled with velocity and it turns out he also struggled with the breakers as well. The only thing he was moderately successful against were off-speed pitches. Back in Triple-A for 100 games total, he did hit 22 home runs at that level with a wRC+ of 132. Simply put, Mervis is too good for Triple-A and he needs to take his licks at the MLB level to determine if he is the real deal or a Quad-A slugger. I’m not completely out on him, but I am bumping him down a Tier and slightly lowering his Ceiling. Ceiling: 6
Nelson Velázquez, OF, 24
I wrote up Velázquez in the 2022 Bowman Chrome Preview and at the time I had him pegged as more of a 4th/5th outfielder type. After his MLB debut in 2023 and continued performance at the MLB level with 17 home runs in 53 games, it looks like he is reaching an MLB level starter type of profile.
I invoked the name of Aristedes Aquino in his Bowman write up, but he’s looking a lot more like Jorge Soler-lite. Strangely enough, just like Soler, Velázquez debuted with the Cubs and ended up in Kansas City for his second MLB team, albeit a lot quicker in Velázquez’s case. He was traded at this past deadline to the Royals for Jose Cuas, a bullpen arm that also gets his Flagship rookie card in this product (see below). There’s still a concerning high strikeout rate that isn’t balanced out enough by his average walk rates. But the dude just crushes balls that he gets a hold of and that easily keeps him in Tier 3 with room for a bit more if he can cut that K rate. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Miguel Amaya, C, 24
Years ago Amaya was regularly mentioned in the discussion for top catching prospects but injuries including Tommy John surgery has led to a significant amount of lost time and lost prospect status.
Amaya has starting catcher skills on defense and a good enough hit tool that he should figure into the Cubs starting catcher role in the future. He showed that hit tool in his brief minor league stints in 2023 but not so much at the MLB level. He was able to put 5 balls over the fence in just 53 games which is promising. However, 4 of the 5 were in Wrigley which is very homer friendly. Amaya is on the border of Tier 3 and Tier None - ultimately the loss in prospect status and the catcher penalty knock him down to Tier None for me. Ceiling: 5
Cincinnati Reds
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Matt McLain, SS/2B, 24
In the 2022 Bowman Preview, I had McLain as a Tier 3 player, as he had not yet shown any power. I liked the contact skills, plate approach, speed, and 1st round draft pedigree, but the lack of power capped his ceiling. Since then, McLain has shifted his approach to more power, even if that did open himself up to striking out a lot more frequently. The trade-off and results are strong enough for me to bump him into Tier 2.
In just 89 games at the MLB level in his debut season, McLain hit 16 home runs and stole 14 bases while hitting .290/.357/.507 with a wRC+ of 128. In the minors, he regularly ran walk rates in the mid-teens while at the major league level it was below average at 7.7%. I expect this to trend towards double digits in 2024 as one of the main areas of improvement and regression towards his minor league profile. As with the walk rates, there are other negatives and areas of improvement - exit velocities are mostly average and his contact rates, both in the zone and outside the zone, were below average at the MLB level, and a concerning strikeout rate at 28.5%.
It was a mixed bag with McLain, but the end results were hard to argue with. On a young, dynamic team with a ton of buzz, McLain has all the opportunity in the world moving forward. Prospect pedigree, promising debut results, and a team rising in popularity are all part of the formula that pushes McLain into the Tier 2 ranks. Ceiling: 7
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Levi Stoudt, P, 25
A less heralded part of the package the Mariners sent to the Reds for Luis Castillo at the 2022 trade deadline, Stoudt has mid-rotation upside but has yet to show it at the upper minors and in a brief MLB debut. He has a four pitch mix starting with a mid-90’s four-seam fastball, a plus change-up, an above average slider, and curveball that should probably be kicked to the curb. The change-up gets a lot of swing and miss and weak contact while the slider does the same to a lesser degree. The fastball is too hit-able if he misses with it at all - it needs to live on the edges of the zone to not get hit hard. He’s more likely going to live as an inconsistent back-end starter without some fastball improvements, either in velocity or movement. Since he didn’t do much with his debut nor much in Triple-A this season, he’s getting the short end of the stick with a Tier None ranking. Ceiling: 5
Casey Legumina, P, 26
Next up on my “Who?” list, Casey Legumina is a reliever that the Twins sent to the Reds this past off-season for Kyle Farmer. Kyle Farmer seems like a useful and versatile major leaguer. Legumina seems like a dime a dozen reliever that you can find on the waiver wire. He got just over 12 innings at the big league level this year in relief and it was a mixed bag of low and high leverage. Similarly, it was a mixed bag of success and failure, and with the small sample size, the failures make the overall numbers look really bad. A larger sample at Triple-A looks a bit better, but he’s still walking too many batters no matter where he’s pitching. His approach is based on a fastball slider combo with the fastball sitting at 94 mph. He is looking to limit hard contact and get ground balls, but when that’s not happening, it’s not good. I think I’ve opined enough on a Tier None reliever. Ceiling: 1
Brandon Williamson, P, 25
Williamson was part of the package sent to the Reds, along with Connor Phillips, Jake Fraley, and Justin Dunn, for Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez. Williamson has tantalizing stuff but lacks the command to actualize it. He’s currently throwing a four seam fastball in the low-90’s with a cutter, slider, curveball, and a change-up. The cutter, slider, and curveball all show promise with the cutter surprisingly looking like his best pitch at the moment. His changeup was straight up bad and he should forget he even knows how to throw it. With his fastball velocity underwhelming, his margin for error as a starting pitcher is slim. He didn’t strike out much and he walked too many hitters in 2023. As composed currently, Williamson is a back-end pitcher trending towards an SP6/swing-man type which is a bit surprising as I was a fair bit higher on him coming into the season. Ceiling: 4
Cleveland Guardians
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Tanner Bibee, P, 24
I did a review of Bibee back in the 2021 Bowman Draft Preview and he has totally transformed from what I saw then, a back-end starter, to what he is now - an SP2/SP3 with three potential plus pitches. His fastball velocity is up into the mid-90’s which helped turn his slider and change-up into dominant secondaries. He’ll also throw a curveball on occasion, but that pitch was average at best.
There were very blemishes on Bibee’s stellar rookie season. If we’re picking nits, I would like to see the walk rate tick down a point, the ground ball rate jump up some, and the fastball to not give up so much hard contact. He does that, and either improves or ditches the curveball, and he cements himself as an SP2 and easily justifies this Tier 2 ranking. He did finish the season on the injured list with hip inflammation, which in general is something you don’t like to see, but at least it wasn’t an arm issue. Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
Brayan Rocchio, SS, 22
I’ve always been of the opinion that Rocchio is much more highly valued from a real baseball perspective than a hobby perspective. His strong defense and overall profile of doing most everything above average or better regularly has kept him ranked somewhere in Top 100 lists. He debuted this year in May and was up and down a few different times, spending the majority of August in Cleveland racking a total of 23 big league games in 2023. He did not do much with that small sample size, so we can effectively ignore it for now.
As a switch hitter, Rocchio shouldn’t have any platoon concerns. His approach tends to be more contact over power focused, but he will pop low double digit home runs because he’s putting the bat on the ball so frequently. He’s an above average runner and shouldn’t have a problem putting up double digits in the stolen base category. Exit velocities, barrel rates, and hard hit rates are all sub-par, even when looking at the larger sample size at Triple-A this year. Ultimately it feels like that caps out his power upside to the teens and overall hobby potential also caps out at Tier 3. Ceiling: 6
Logan T. Allen, P, 25
Not to be confused with Logan S. Allen, Logan T. Allen is a back-end starter that is looking to keep the ball in the zone while limiting hard contact and getting ground balls. He has a three pitch mix with a plus change up, average fastball in the low-90’s, and an above average slider. He also slip a cutter in their occasionally, but it gets hit hard, so he keeps the usage under 10%.
This is classic Cleveland pitching development in action - maximizing each pitcher’s best traits and taking advantage of it. As a left-hander, this low velocity, swing at change ups, get weak contact profile just works, especially in these smart pitching orgs. Suck up innings and beat up on the perennially bad teams in the division is the classic SP5 profile that straddle the border of Tier 2 and Tier None. With Allen showing he can easily do that in his debut season, he gets the benefit of the doubt and pushed up into Tier 3. Ceiling: 5
Tier None
Peyton Battenfield, P, 26
Peyton “Love is a” Battenfield is now on his fourth organization after being DFA’d by the Guardians at the end of August so they could pick up playoff chase reinforcements cast off by the Angels capitulation. He ended up getting claimed by the New York Mets, who do have plenty of opportunity in theory, but in reality will probably have an almost entirely new rotation by throwing money at the problem.
At one point, Battenfield looked like a prototypical back-end starter with a four to five pitch mix that was headlined by a four-seamer in the 94 mph range. That velocity has backed up and is now sitting around 90 - 91 mph which has made being a successful MLB pitcher that much harder. His best pitch right now is probably his high-80’s cutter, but everything else, including his command, is playing just average or worse right now. Even the pitching factory in Cleveland was unable to unlock Battenfield’s potential and he’s now looking like a long reliever/swing-man/emergency starter profile. Ceiling: 2
Colorado Rockies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Nolan Jones, OF/1B, 25
I’m still not sure I believe the 2023 Nolan Jones experience, but his believers must be winded from taking all the victory laps this season. Traded in the off-season to the Rockies for Juan Brito (a hitter-ish second baseman which the Guardians stockpile like squirrels stockpile nuts), Jones landed in the obvious best place to rebuild his once prominent prospect status.
Jones always had gaudy walk rates and bad strikeout rates to go with them. Patience or passivity was the million dollar question regularly asked about Jones. Could he get the bat off of his shoulder enough to get to 20 or more home runs that you would expect from a power bat that Jones looked to be? In all of his pro seasons since he was drafted in the second round of the 2016 draft, he came close but never was able to accomplish it. Whether it was the thin air of Denver, Colorado or not, Jones finally did it in his first full-ish season in the majors. He came up at the end of May and in 106 games hit .297/.382/.542 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. That’s, as the kids say, “bussin” (I really hope people don’t actually say that). About the only negatives are the strikeout rate and the less than ideal hard contact rate, which has pretty much always been part of the Nolan Jones experience.
As I said off the top, I am hesitant to buy in. A 30% or worse strikeout rate (Jones was right at 30%) scare the you-know-what out of me. However, it’s hard to argue with the results and the bonus he gets from playing home games in Colorado, so he gets that Tier 2 love even if it’s an uncomfortable, awkward hug type of love. Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
Sean Bouchard, OF, 27
Bouchard had a promising debut in 2022 as he hit .297/.454/.500 with three home runs in just 27 games. I was looking forward to seeing what he could do with a full time job in Colorado coming into 2023 and then injury struck. He ended up having biceps surgery in March and didn’t get back to the majors until the beginning of September, when it was more of the same that we had seen in 2022. In 21 games, he hit .316/.372/.684 with four home runs. He looks like the king of the small samples as a ton of the advanced data looks eye popping.
Bouchard’s got plus raw power and looks to pull everything. His plate approach is solid as he won’t strike out more than the average power bat and will take just enough walks. All of the hard hit, barrel, and exit velocity numbers look strong, as expected. In Colorado, this profile will play up as well. His defense is good enough that he won’t get sat for that. At worst, he’s a weak side platoon bat, which is more of a Tier None profile. At best, the small sample size is real and he’s a potential Tier 2 player hitting .300 with 25+ home runs. I split the difference and put him in Tier 3 for now. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Jake Bird, P, 27
The next player in my list that got an initial note of “Who?”, Bird is a pure relief arm that debuted with Colorado in June of 2022 and has been on the big league roster ever since. His best trait is durability as he pitched the most innings of any true reliever in 2023. His approach is to limit walks and get ground balls and he accomplishes with heavy usage of his 94 mph sinker. Everything else is average or worse as he doesn’t get many strikeouts and gives up too much hard contact. That keeps him from getting too many high leverage innings, plying his trade mostly in the middle relief role, and I don’t see that changing much. Ceiling: 1
Brenton Doyle, OF, 25
Doyle is a strong defender that had a moment in the sun on his call-up. Called up at the end of April for his debut, he went on a hot streak in May that had the deep fantasy leaguers buzzing when he hit .246 with four home runs and four steals along with some highlight reel defense. Defense stats don’t matter for fantasy, but it helps reinforce the idea that a young player will get a longer leash with their playing time. Doyle in fact did stick on the roster the entire season even though he was downright bad from an offensive standpoint from June through August. He did recover in September to have his best month as a major leaguer, but it was still just a league average performance.
As mentioned, Doyle’s defense in center field provides a strong MLB floor either in a bench role or starting on a second division team. His speed helps that equation and he had 22 stolen bags in his 126 MLB games in 2023. The power is there to potentially get in the 20 home run range, but the ability to get to it in game hasn’t shown itself yet. The hit tool is fringe at this point and holds back the whole profile, pushing him into Tier None. The Ceiling, on the other hand, is much higher than normal in this tier because of the relative strength of the defense, speed, and power. Ceiling: 6
Detroit Tigers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Garrett Hill, P, 27
Hill has been a starter for the Tigers ever since he was a late round draft pick of Detroit back in 2018. He debuted on the fourth of July in 2022 as a starter and actually picked up the win going six innings against Cleveland while giving up just two hits and one run. It was pretty much all down Hill from there. By the end of August, he was moved to a bullpen role and has not started another MLB game since. In 2023 he bounced between Triple-A and the big league squad and in all of his games for Detroit, he was pitching as a low leverage reliever.
He’s got a five pitch mix and the majority of them are ineffective. The sinker is his best pitch as it generates the most swing and miss while also limiting hard contact and successful at bats. Hill is most successful when he is limiting balls in the air because he gives up too much hard contact, walks too many batters, and doesn’t get enough strikeouts. Altogether not a good recipe for real baseball, let alone the hobby. Ceiling: 2
Mason Englert, P, 23
Englert was a Rule 5 pick of the Tigers prior to the 2023 season and was able to stick on the roster all season as a multi-inning reliever. He had a hip injury late in July and then during his rehab in Triple-A, he had to be pulled due to the hip flaring back up, leading to his season being shut down. To this point I haven’t seen anything further on the situation.
Englert was a back-end starter in the Rangers system and the multi-inning relief role was likely just to keep him on the Tigers MLB roster so they didn’t have to offer him back to Texas. Moving forward Detroit will probably push him back into a starter’s role to see if they can make that work and if that fails, back to the bullpen he goes. His four pitch mix is all about limiting hard contact through strong command, movement, and deception. Outside of his slider, none of his pitches are effective at getting strikes. As such, he was not able to effectively get hitters out and gave up far too much hard contact. I can see the back-end potential as Englert gains more experience and learns how to limit the hard contact and get batters out, but that looks like it’s a few years off and that’s not enough for the hobby. Ceiling: 3
Braden Bristo, P, 28
Add another rookie to my “Who?” list. Bristo was a Yankees minor leaguer since he was drafted by them in 2016 in the 23rd round. After repeating Triple-A in 2022, Bristo elected for free agency and was signed by the Rays. After a week in Triple-A Durham to start the year, Bristo was brought up to Tampa and made his big league debut coming out of the bullpen in the seventh inning. He actually went the rest of the way and was credited with the save in his debut game. A week later he was back in Triple-A and a less than a month after that, he was DFA’d and claimed by the Tigers. A couple more major league appearances were in store, this time for Detroit, with one in May and one in June. Otherwise Bristo spent the rest of the year in Triple-A.
Bristo has good strikeout stuff with his four pitch mix of a cutter, sinker, slider, and change-up. However, the command isn’t there for him to get much MLB run as he regularly racks up high walk rates. A reliever lacking command that’s now on his third organization doesn’t drive any hobby interest. Ceiling: 1
Houston Astros
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
J.P. France, P, 28
France is a back-end starting pitcher that has been optimized by Houston to produce Tier 3 results despite the below average peripherals. He ended the regular season with an 11-6 record and a 3.83 in just over 136 innings. There’s not a team out there that wouldn’t have been happy with having that on their staff, let alone from a former 18th round draft pick.
France has five pitches, starting with a four-seam fastball at 93 mph. Following that are a cutter, change-up, curveball, and slider. The change-up and the curveball produce the best results of all of his pitches while the cutter is probably the next most effective pitch, at least from a strike throwing perspective. There’s honestly not a whole lot to hang your hat on with France. The advanced metrics all show that he out-performed his numbers, typically around by a run or better. Strike out rate, walk rate, contact rates, etc. are all screaming negative regression, and for that reason I considered dropping him into Tier None. However, sometimes you just have to tip your cap, at least in the short term, to the results rather than the process. Ceiling: 4
Tier None
Corey Julks, OF, 27
Julks had a monster 2022 at Houston’s Triple-A affiliate slugging 31 home runs and hitting .270/.351/.503 and stealing 22 bases. However, league context matters as that performance came with a wRC+ of just 108. That performance, along with some Astros health issues to open the year, led Julks to win an opening day roster spot. There was some streaky success, but it faded in the heat of the summer and Julks finished the season in Triple-A. He ended up with a wRC+ of 80 and just 6 home runs while hitting .245 in his 93 MLB games in 2023. That’s below replacement level and ultimately tips the scales towards the Tier None ranking rather than the Tier 3 ranking I would have given him heading into the season. Ceiling: 5
Bligh Madris, OF/1B, 27
Madris is a former Pirates prospect that I only recognize because of his unique name. I’ve never seen the name “Bligh” used as a first, middle, or last name at any time - maybe it’s just my lack of worldliness. Beyond that, Madris from a baseball perspective is more forgettable than memorable unfortunately. There’s a bit of positive plate approach value as he doesn’t strike out much, walks enough, and in 2021 and 2022 had strong minor league batting average numbers as a result. However, his 39 big league games with Pittsburgh in 2022 and 12 big league games with Houston in 2023 did not go well.
After his MLB stint with the Pirates, Madris was DFA’d and claimed by the Rays. Shortly after that, the Tampa DFA’d him again and he was claimed by the Tigers, but did not get in any minor or major league games for that org. He was then DFA’d by the Tigers in December of 2022 and the Astros stepped up sending cash to Detroit for Madris. At this point, Madris looks like a Quad-A bat that can provide some emergency depth. Ceiling: 3
Kansas City Royals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Maikel Garcia, 3B/SS, 23
There’s a lot to like from a real baseball perspective with Maikel Garcia. He’s a plus defender on the left side of the infield. He makes a ton of hard contact, doesn’t strike out much, and steals a lot of bags. The main thing lacking is power, and that’s what keeps him from having much hobby relevancy. His approach is to put the ball in play and not worry about elevating it. In his first full season at the MLB level, he ran a high ground ball rate at 53% and a really poor barrel rate at just over 3%. And ultimately with Garcia being on the leaner side, it’s probably better that he doesn’t focus on trying to put the ball over the fence. There’s a ton of positives here that are enough to get Garcia into Tier 3. The lack of double digit home runs currently and likely in the future keeps him from getting much higher. Ceiling: 6
Tier None
Brewer Hicklen, 27, OF
A regular in Kansas City prospect lists for years due to his tantalizing power/speed toolset, Hicklen’s lack of a solid hit tool has continued to suppress that prospect status to where he’s now more of an honorable mention than actually ranked. It seems like the Royals felt the same. After a brief COVID replacement debut in 2022 of four games, Hicklen spent all of 2023 in Triple-A and then was traded to the Phillies in late August for what was likely cash considerations. This seems to have been an emergency outfield depth type of move for the Phillies as Hicklen did not make any MLB appearances for them in his short time in the organization.
Hicklen has regularly had poor strikeout rates, but in 2023 actually was able to get them into more of a league average range at just under 25%. That approach tweak had a negative impact on his power output and didn’t positively impact his batting average or on base percentage. There may be some happy middle ground to find, so it’s worth keeping an eye to see if he can be that late bloomer type that a new org unlocks. All accounts are that he’s a clubhouse leader as well which means he likely gets a few extra chances to prove himself before being written off. At the moment, he’s a 5th outfielder/emergency depth type and the clock is starting to tick on his relevancy. Ceiling: 5
Freddy Fermin, C, 28
The long-time Royals farmhand finally made his debut in 2022 with a brief 3 game cup of coffee and then in late April of 2023 joined the MLB squad full time. Fermin is a backup catcher profile that does most things competently but nothing that stands out. And, like most catchers, he’s not going to steal you any bases. He’s fine behind the dish and has a decently strong arm and pop time. He keeps the strikeouts in a good range at under 22% while making an above average amount of solid contact. There’s average pop and the only real negative outside of the stolen bases is that he walks infrequently. As they say, a perfectly cromulent player that can serve as a backup catcher for most MLB teams, but that doesn’t move the hobby needle. Ceiling: 4
Jose Cuas, P, 29
Traded to the Cubs at the trade deadline for Nelson Velázquez, Cuas has a deceptive delivery with a very low arm slot that causes uncomfortable at bats. He’s mostly throwing sinkers while mixing in a slider and a four seamer. His arm slot gives everything movement and he ends up with quite a bit of swinging strikes and ground balls because of it. The negative to that funk is that it does impact his command, giving up a 12% walk rate in 2023. And when hitters do get comfortable, they take advantage of the lower velocity as he sits around 92 for both his sinker and four seamer. Those negatives likely keep Cuas from a future closer role or even a high leverage role. As usual, hobby interest will be next to none even on a fairly popular team for collectors. Ceiling: 1
Los Angeles Angels
Tier 1
None
TIer 2
Zach Neto, SS, 22
The Angels first round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft didn’t take long to get to the big leagues as he was called up just two weeks into the regular season. Unfortunately it wasn’t the best debut and it was complicated by two separate month-long injuries - an oblique in mid June and a back injury in early August. What we did see in the 84 games Neto played in Anaheim is that Neto can handle the shortstop position, which was a question from some evaluators pre-draft. On the offensive side, there wasn’t much to hang your hat on. He didn’t chase, he kept his strikeout rate at a manageable level (23.4%), and he wasn’t putting the ball on the ground too much. Everything else was pretty much a sad trombone as he didn’t walk enough, lacked hard contact and barrels, and swung and missed too much.
Prospect pedigree drives this ranking as much as anything at this point. In the long term, I still believe in the hit and power for Neto, but just think he needed more reps before facing this level of pitching. Hopefully it’s not detrimental to his development and he can use this year as a foundation to get better and better. I wouldn’t argue against anyone if they are already out on Neto, and the Hobby is likely not going to be that interested in him given the 2023 performance, but he’s still just 22 years old and in my Tier 2. Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
Ben Joyce, P, 23
Flame-throwing high leverage reliever drafted in the 3rd round of the 2022 MLB Draft. In what is a trend with the Angels, Joyce made it all the way up to the big league squad in just his second professional season. Unfortunately a bout of ulnar neuritis less than a month into his debut sent him to the Injured List until a late season in September.
Joyce is a two pitch guy at this point, throwing his bread and butter 100+ mph heater 80% of the time. A mostly flat, horizontal breaking slider is his second pitch and that gets the remaining 20% of his pitches thrown in anger. He has a change-up, but he doesn’t use it. On the velocity alone Joyce is ticketed for a high leverage bullpen role. There’s also a bit of prospect pedigree as Joyce was a Pitching Ninja favorite during his time at the University of Tennessee when Joyce famously hit 105 mph on the radar gun. As a potential future closer with a little bit more buzz than usual for a reliever, Joyce gets bumped into Tier 3 with a bit higher ceiling than most pure bullpen guys. Ceiling: 6
Tier None
Michael Stefanic, 2B, 27
An undrafted free agent in 2018, Stefanic has made the most of his limited tool set to turn into a viable major-leaguer. He’s got a strong hit tool and not much else. That hit tool was on full display when he had a 62 game on base streak spanning the end of the 2022 and beginning of the 2023 minor league seasons. On a second division team, Stefanic could be an everyday second baseman with that plus hit tool, and the Angels are regularly showing themselves to be that type of team unfortunately (or fortunately for Stefanic). In general, this is a bench bat/emergency depth type of player that provides baseball value but not hobby value. Ceiling: 3
Zack Weiss, P, 31
One of many rookies in this product on my “Who?” list, the 31 year old reliever gets a rookie card FIVE years after his debut. To be fair to Topps, his rookie status remained intact because it was a single relief appearance for the Reds in 2018, and it was one in which he was unable to get any hitter out as he gave up two home runs and four earned runs leading to being pulled after facing four batters. Weiss returned to the big leagues in 2022 with the Angels, had a few more appearances with them in 2023 and was eventually DFA’d in the August house cleaning after the Angels fell out of the playoff race and looked to get under the luxury tax. The Red Sox picked him up and he had a few appearances for the major league squad as well as their Triple-A affiliate.
Weiss is primarily a slider-heavy guy from the right side that he pairs with a 94 mph four seam fastball. The slider is effective while the fastball is not. A one pitch journeyman reliever can occasionally find success, but one already into his 30’s is living on borrowed time and not going to interest the hobby. Ceiling: 1
Sam Bachman, P, 24
The Angels first round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft at 9th overall (Yikes!) Bachman's increased velocity during his draft year has not yet come back around since getting into professional ball. Coupling that with a lack of change-up development and a heavy reliance on his slider has clearly pushed Bachman into a reliever role. To be fair, he was exclusively used as a starter in the minor leagues and the Angels were throwing every pitcher that had a hint of viability at their big league squad in their attempt to convince Ohtani to return to the club this off-season. So it’s entirely possible that Bachman goes back to being developed as a starter in 2024 and that will hinge on whether or not his change-up will be usable moving forward.
At present, outside of delivering plus ground ball rates, there’s nothing to get excited about with Bachman and he’s drifted pretty far off of his original prospect status to a Tier None reliever. Ceiling: 3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tier 1
Bobby Miller, P, 24
The Dodgers first round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft has done nothing but excel as he worked his way up to his MLB debut this past May. And once he debuted, he was locked into the Dodgers much beleaguered rotation. He provided 124 innings of just what the doctor ordered work, going 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. His strikeout rate was solid at 23.6% and his walk rate was excellent at 6.3%.
Miller has the full kitchen sink arsenal headlined by a 99-mph four seam fastball. I won't get into the details of every pitch as there were a lot of classification challenges, but the majority of them ended up with plus results outside of his slider. Given how many pitches he has, cutting out the less successful ones like the slider are obvious options to consider moving forward as Miller looks to truly become the next Dodgers ace pitcher. Prospect pedigree, ace potential with strikeout upside on a highly collectable team all give me enough confidence to push Miller into Tier 1. I would have liked to see a bit more of strikeout dominance, but that should come with time. Ceiling: 9
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Michael Busch, 3B/DH, 25
A 2019 first round pick, Busch is a power bat with enough of a competent hit tool to not hinder his ability to get to that power and impact games offensively. His 2023 MLB debut was short stints of fill-in duty amounting to 27 games of very underwhelming numbers. In his just slightly under 100 games at Triple-A, Busch showed he was too good for that level, hitting .323, smashing 27 home runs, and putting up plus walk and strikeout rates with a wRC+ of 150.
As is regularly said in the Daily Sheet and elsewhere, the easiest path to relevancy for Busch is to find his way to another team which will give him a full time job. Or perhaps the Dodgers will finally move on from Max Muncy and give Busch the first shot at third base out of Spring Training like they were willing to do with Miguel Vargas and the second base job in 2023…or maybe that experience will give them second thoughts. Busch is on that borderline of Tier 2 and Tier 3 for me and I will go with the Tier 3 side of it until we see he can handle MLB pitching AND has a full time opportunity to do so. I expect him to do it and the Ceiling will reflect it but I’m gun shy with the guys that struggle out of the gate, get held down by teams and/or being blocked in the short term. Ceiling: 8
Tier None
Gavin Stone, P, 24
I once again fell for the “pitcher with an awesome change-up” bait! I had Stone as a borderline Tier 2/Tier 3 pitcher in the 2022 Bowman Chrome Preview due to his near elite change-up and Dodgers team context. It’s a hard lesson that I continue to struggle learning - change-up-first pitchers can easily dominate in the minors but almost always need to be knocked down a peg or two when they get to the majors.
Another data point that we had on Stone prior to the season was that his fastball velocity was sitting mid-90’s and touching 99. It seemed to tick down a bit at the MLB level, putting more pressure on his change-up and his other secondaries. The rest of his secondaries were a mixed bag - a cutter, sinker, and slider, with the slider probably being the most effective. Ultimately, in a season where the Dodgers desperately needed starting pitching throughout the year, Stone’s failed at seizing that opportunity in his big league appearances. Emmet Sheehan and even Michael Grove ended up surpassing Stone in the pecking order. Now that we’ve seen Stone in a big league context, he’s looking more like an SP5 with plenty of work to do to reach that profile rather than the mid-rotation starter with upside I was envisioning this time last year. Ceiling: 5
Miami Marlins
Tier 1
Eury Pérez, P, 20
I will freely admit that I’ve been one of the lower guys on Eury because a pitcher that tall (6’8”) rarely works out like we want. Eury looks like he could be an exception that proves that rule. His upside is that of a dominant ace with four plus pitches and eye-popping strikeout numbers. Eury debuted in May and among all rookie pitchers with more than 50 innings pitched, he was fourth in ERA (3.15) and second in strikeout rate (28.9%) to Kodai Senga whose rookie status is a bit of an unfair comparison.
That aforementioned four pitch arsenal is a high-90’s fastball, mid-80’s slider, low-80’s curveball, and low-90’s change-up. All four pitches generate whiffs and get strikeouts with the three secondaries limiting hard contact. The fastball, like a lot of power pitchers, can give up hard contact a bit more in a velocity in, velocity out type of situation. I see some occasional command issues for Eury, but he’s so young and has plenty of time to iron those out. This is an ace and has a chance at being a top 10 pitcher in baseball in the future. Ceiling: 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Andrew Nardi, P, 25
When I initially looked at the rookies in this product, Nardi was on my list of “who is this guy?”, and, well, after their playoff series with the Phillies, he no longer is on that list. He gave up a nail in the coffin grand slam to Bryson Stott in what turned out to be the final game of the Phillies vs. Marlins Wild Card Series. It’s too bad, because after a forgettable debut in 2022, Nardi was one of the better relievers for the Marlins in 2023.
Nardi is a two pitch reliever - a mid-90’s fastball and a low-80’s slider. Both pitches played up as plus this year, generating a ton of whiffs and called strikes, limited hard contact, and getting a lot of ground balls. As the season wore on, Nardi was more and more used in the setup role. Throwing from the left side, he dominated lefties and found plenty of success against righties as well. There’s continued potential for future high leverage roles, but the left-handed penalty will make it difficult for him to lock in a long term closer role, so his Ceiling isn’t as high as it could be. Ceiling: 3
Xavier Edwards, 2B/OF, 24
I’m not sure if Edwards will ever lose the “Slapdick Prospect” association with Blake Snell referencing that term when being informed during a live Twitch stream that then teammate Tommy Pham was being traded from the Rays to the Padres in 2019. Edwards was part of that return package and Snell was not happy about the trade (obviously not knowing that future Snell would also be traded by the Rays to the Padres).
Edwards does mostly embody that slapdick label although he’s popped a few home runs in the minors to try and get rid of that impression. However, taking a look at his exit velos and it’s likely more of an outlier than the norm when it comes to those home runs. Edwards has near elite speed and does know how to regularly put the bat on the ball and rarely strikes out so he should have no problem putting up 30+ steals even in a part time role. And that is really what Edwards looks to be - a bench bat that can fill backup roles at second base and center field while being that pinch running weapon you always want in your back pocket for the runner on second base in extra innings. While that is a really nice option from a real baseball perspective, it’s not going to drive a ton of hobby interest. Ceiling: 4
George Soriano, P, 24
A top 30 Marlins prospect coming into the season, Soriano has strikeout upside that works best out of the bullpen. Prior to 2022, Soriano was mostly starting games but over the last two seasons has been worked more and more into a bullpen role where his lack of command will have less negative impact.
Soriano’s arsenal consists of a mid-90’s fastball, mid-80’s slider, and a high-80’s changeup. Coming into the season, his fastball was seen as his best pitch. However, at the MLB level, it was the one that performed the worst. His slider and his change-up were both strong strikeout pitches and drove poor contact and batting averages. The giving up too many walks issue still persisted from his off-season reports, lending credence to keeping him in the bullpen moving forward. There’s some high leverage potential given the stuff, so even though he’s in Tier None, the Ceiling does get a minor bump. Ceiling: 4
Milwaukee Brewers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Joey Wiemer, OF, 24
I wrote up Wiemer in the 2022 Bowman Chrome Preview and had him as a Tier 2 power/speed outfielder with 30/30 potential. In his debut season this year, the hit tool just isn’t proving strong enough to support that, at least not yet.
Wiemer got quite a bit of playing time in Milwaukee this year, primarily due to the Garrett Mitchell injury. In 132 games, he hit a paltry .203 with a sub-.300 OBP. He did get to double double territory with 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases. Simply put, he regressed back to the 2022 Double-A version of Wiemer - a sub-10% walk rate and close to a 30% strikeout rate. He simply doesn’t make enough good contact to outrun those peripherals. I’m also concerned he gets pushed into a weak-side platoon role simply because the Brewers have so many current (Mitchell, Frelick, Yelich, Tyrone Taylor) and future (Jackson Chourio) outfield options.
Given his 2023 results, I’m pushing him down to Tier 3 as a power/speed guy that will pop in streaks but won’t consistently deliver Tier 2 results. The Ceiling for that Tier 2 bat is still there if he can figure out the hit tool. Ceiling: 8
Tier None
Andruw Monasterio, INF, 26
A defense-first utility player that won’t hurt you with the bat, but also won’t provide a ton of value. Monasterio was in the Cubs system for years before moving to the Nationals in an in-season trade for Daniel Murphy and then onto Cleveland in an off-season trade for Yan Gomes during 2019. After spending a few years in the Cleveland system, Monasterio signed a minor league free agent deal with the Brewers prior to the 2022 season, finally leading to his MLB debut with the Brewers in 2023.
Due to various infield injuries (Urias, Anderson, Adames, etc.) in Milwaukee, Monasterio got a fair bit of run with a total of 92 games. There wasn’t much to write home about as he had a wRC+ of 88 with a .259 average, three home runs, and seven steals. He primarily played third base and then second base with a couple of games at shortstop. His bat is just not good enough to be an everyday regular, even at second base and that caps his ceiling and hobby interest. Ceiling: 3
Gus Varland, P, 26
Varland was a 2018 draft pick of the A’s that was traded to the Dodgers prior to the 2021 season along with Sheldon Neuse for Adam Kolarek and Cody Thomas. He was then selected by the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft last off-season and made Milwaukee’s opening day roster. By mid-May he was DFA’d and after going unclaimed, was sent back to the Dodgers and landed on their Triple-A roster. Varland came up in mid-August for just short of a month before going on the Injured List to end his season with a knee issue.
Varland is primarily a two pitch guy now that he’s shifted to the bullpen full-time starting in 2022. He’ll throw a mid-90’s fastball and a high-80’s slider. The fastball has shown to be a very effective pitch for him while the slider can get punished, especially when leaving it in the zone. He also has a change-up leftover from his starting days, but he rarely throws it. There may be a high leverage bullpen role for Varland in the future that could increase his interest. At the moment, he’s a middle innings relief role type of pitcher until his slider or perhaps even his change-up develop further. Ceiling: 2
Blake Perkins, OF, 27
Now on his fourth organization since being drafted as a prep bat out of Arizona in 2015 by the Nationals, Perkins is a defense-first 4th/5th outfielder. He will steal some bases, take a good amount of walks, and show a little bit of power when he gets one grooved to him. Given his defensive strengths, he can back up all three outfield spots which will keep him as an MLB-relevant piece over the next few seasons. There’s just not enough here to get a full-time job on anything but a second division team and even if that does happen, he likely gets more exposed offensively rather than taking advantage of the situation. He doesn’t barrel the ball enough, his exit velocities aren’t great, and that leads to the obvious lack of hard contact. I’m not interested. Ceiling: 3
Minnesota Twins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Edouard Julien, 2B/DH/1B, 24
I wrote up Julien in our 2023 Bowman Preview and I feel like his 2023 season essentially bore out what I saw. He only got 109 games in his debut season as the Twins bounced him back and forth between the big league squad and Triple-A until finally sticking in Minnesota in mid-June. June and July were strong months for him, but he petered out in August and September. He still managed an impressive 136 wRC+ backed by a 16% walk rate and 16 home runs while hitting .263. The strikeout rate did hit an unsightly 31% and the ground ball rate was at 50% for the first time in his pro career.
I’m still on board with Julien being a future .300 hitter with strong OBP and 20+ home runs. A bit more of an adjustment to major league pitching and he could easily get there. That’s what keeps him in Tier 2 for me, just like I had him at the beginning of the year. I wouldn’t argue if you see him more as a Tier 3 guys in a glass half empty situation, but I’m going with the glass half full. Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Brent Headrick, P, 25
A lefty reliever that was primarily used in low leverage situations in his debut season of 2023. Primarily a fastball and slider approach with neither pitch having much velocity behind it, Headrick succeeds through location more than anything else. There isn’t a ton of swing and miss stuff, but he does get a fair bit of called strikes as he works the edges of the zone. Being left handed does give Headrick some MLB viability and potential longevity, but that’s about it. Ceiling: 1
New York Yankees
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Randy Vásquez, P, 24
An interesting arm in the Yankees system with some prospect pedigree as he was around the fringe of the Yankees top 10 across the industry (10th in our Pre-Season Yankees list). Vásquez made not only his Triple-A debut this year, but also his MLB debut. He bounced back and forth between the two levels throughout the season and pitched in the rotation as well as the bullpen for the big league club.
Vásquez has both the four seam and sinker variety of the fastball with each sitting around 94 mph. The four-seamer is the more effective pitch, but they each have low batting average against. For his secondaries, he’ll throw a cutter, change-up, curveball, and slider. There’s not a ton of strikeout upside and the biggest concern is his command. He misses his spots quite a bit and I’ve seen him get a bit lucky as he’s left 94 mph sitting right out of the heart of the plate and not get punished for it. As it stands currently, Vásquez’s future role is somewhere in between a back-end starter and a reliever and I don’t think anything this year swung the pendulum strongly one way or another. Regardless, until his command improves, he’s a Tier None pitcher. Even with a bit of prospect pedigree and the Yankees bump. Ceiling: 4
Jhony Brito, P, 25
Brito debuted in 2023 with the Yankees and produced results true to his profile. A backend starter that doesn’t have overwhelming stuff but has a strong command and control approach that limits hard contact and walks that leads to success. He bounced back and forth between Triple-A and Yankee Stadium in 2023, compiling a 9-7 record in just over 90 innings. The strikeout rate was underwhelming at just under 20% but the walk rate was really good at just 7.5%. Coupled with good hard contact suppression and ground ball rates, Brito is what we thought he was.
With the Yankees, the back-end starter role is always at risk of the next big free agent signing or being sent packing via trade. That lack of a guaranteed rotation spot could relegate Brito to more of a swing-man role in the short term which impacts his value. There is a Yankees bump here, but the pitcher penalty and the lack of strikeout stuff will keep Brito in Tier None. Ceiling: 3
Oakland Athletics
Tier 1
Mason Miller, P, 25
With Miller, the stuff is undeniable, but the health is questionable. When I first tried to do a deep dive on Miller back for 2021 Bowman Draft, there was almost zero information on him. I asked around and I also saw our evaluators struggle with digging up info on him. He bounced around various obscure colleges and missed time due to injuries. There were a couple of bullpen videos online where he was sitting in the mid-90’s in controlled settings, but that was about it. At that point, I simply hung a shrug emoji bullpen risk arm evaluation on him - essentially an incomplete grade.
Two years later and the stuff has made a huge jump where he regularly sits triple digits with his four seamer and a plus slider that gets a ton of swing and miss. He will throw an average cutter and a change-up to round out his arsenal with both pitches needing more work. There’s a little bit of a concern with walks, but as mentioned the big one is health. He had pitched less than 30 innings prior to his MLB call up due to a shoulder strain in 2022, and then he had an elbow issue that shut him down for most of the summer before coming back to end the season throwing innings in Oakland.
That health at the end of the season gives me enough confidence to push him into Tier 1 as scary as that is. He has ace potential with huge strikeout upside, and that’s how a pitcher ends up in Tier 1. However, this is a serious caveat emptor situation given the durability concerns. Ceiling: 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Dérmis Garcia, 1B/3B/OF
Mr. Skin as he’s known around these parts is a big power bat with big swing and miss issues. The A’s signed him prior to the 2022 season as a minor league free agent after being let go by the Yankees. Those are gambles teams like the A’s should be taking to see if they get lucky and turn nothing into something. Unfortunately for the A’s in this case, this lottery ticket didn’t hit.
Garcia made his debut in the second half of 2022 with just under 40 games of his usual swing and miss while putting five balls over the fence. After not making the team in Spring Training, he was passed through waivers with no claims made. After two months in Triple-A, the A’s placed Garcia on their reserve list as headed south to play in the Mexican Baseball League. I doubt we see Garcia on an MLB roster again, but at least he got a rookie card! Ceiling: 1
Ryan Noda
Noda was a Rule 5 selection by the A’s from the Dodgers system in the most recent off-season. He’s a 1B/DH type that is the prototypical three true outcomes second division regular. He has close to a league worst whiff and strikeout rate while close to a league best walk and chase rates. He only hit 16 home runs in 128 MLB games in 2023, so the profile doesn’t quite fit. However, the power data is there and he likely gets closer to 25 home runs in a more hitter friendly environment and a fully healthy season. That might drive some hobby interest in short bursts, but I’ve learned over the years to stay away from these profiles as they rarely have any staying power. Ceiling: 5
Garrett Acton, P, 25
An undrafted free agent from 2020, Acton made relatively quick and steady progress through the minor leagues to get his debut in 2023. Almost exclusively working as a bullpen arm, Acton relies heavily on his mid-90’s four seamer, throwing it almost 70% of the time. His main secondary is a mid-80’s slider that’s below average and his third offering is a mid-80’s change-up that works well off of the fastball but is used sparingly.
After a brief debut in the second half of May, Acton was sent back down to Triple-A. After a few games in Triple-A in June, Acton went on the injured list with an undisclosed injury and was eventually released in July. I haven’t seen anywhere that Acton was picked back up, so it’s likely the injury was season-ending. Once healthy, he probably gets another shot or two at a bullpen. The fastball, while having decent velocity, is so straight and he relies on it so much that I don’t envision even a future high-leverage role. Nothing to see here. Ceiling: 1
Luis Medina
Acquired as part of the package of prospects the A’s received from the Yankees for Frankie Montas at the trade deadline in 2022. The profile has never really changed with Medina - big time stuff with fringe command. He’s never had less than an 11% walk rate outside of a 10 inning stint in High-A in 2019.
Medina has a plus mid-90’s four seamer , a plus slider and a plus curveball, and an ineffective change-up and sinker. He’s hard to square up with his velocity and his breakers but also because of his inconsistency. If he can find that consistency with his command, he’s suddenly got mid-rotation upside, and it behooves the A’s to give him every chance to succeed or fail at that. Ultimately there's a mid-rotation ceiling with an obvious bullpen floor. The bullpen is the more likely result as Medina simply has not been able to consistently find the command needed to be a reliable starter and that pushes him down into Tier None. Ceiling: 5
JJ Bleday, OF, 25
A former 1st round pick of the Marlins has above average to plus power but the hit tool has never developed to support it. He was traded to Oakland prior to the 2023 season straight up for A.J. Puk and right now it looks like the Marlins got the better end of the deal. Bleday is now in one of the worst environments to recapture any interest from a team perspective and one of the worst parks to hit in (until they move to Las Vegas or wherever). On the plus side, he’s always shown plus walk rates and that has continued at the MLB level. His arm is strong enough to play at all three outfield spots.
Bleday’s inability to handle velocity and the holes in his swing at this point don’t seem fixable and Oakland isn’t a place known for that type of development. He’s a second division regular for the moment and is trending worse than that. Ceiling: 4
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Drew Maggi, OF, 34
Bouncing around the minor leagues since 2010 when the Pirates drafted him in the 15th round, Maggi finally got his MLB debut at the age of 33. It’s one of those feel-good baseball stories based on perseverance and grinding away at the big league dream. He started with Pittsburgh and after traveling through five other orgs, he ended up back with the Pirates for his debut.
The debut was only three total games. Fortunately Maggi did pick up a couple of hits before being sent back down to the minors. Unfortunately he was released in late July and was not picked up after that. The reports are that he is a good clubhouse guy and being around baseball for this long, it would not be surprising to see him end up back in a clubhouse as a coach in short order. A good baseball story and maybe that drives a very small amount of hobby interest, but it’s likely fleeting and minuscule at best. Ceiling: 1
José Hernández, P, 25
Rule 5 pick of the Pirates out of the Dodgers org, Hernández is a slider-heavy lefty bullpen arm with command issues. He throws the slider over 50% of the time and pairs that with a mid-90’s four seam fastball. He’ll throw a change-up around 10% of the time. The slider is a legit pitch and as a left-hander, will lead to a lot of continued opportunities to pitch at least in the middle innings out of major league bullpens. The above average walk rates and the lack of a strong second pitch will keep him from a high leverage role. Ceiling: 2
Canaan Smith-Njigba, OF, 24
Smith-Njigba has regularly shown the ability to hit coupled with average power at the minor league level. Since 2021, he’s never run a ground ball rate below 50% meaning that power likely ends up not showing up much. He will steal a few bases but he’s not much of an asset in the outfield. He’s only had two brief major league opportunities, once in 2022 for three games and then starting the 2023 season in Pittsburgh but getting sent down after 14 games. There was one random game he got in June of 2023 as well and ultimately the super small sample size has been unsuccessful. There’s a chance he ends up as an everyday regular on a second division team. However, without adding regular lift to his approach, he’s more likely to end up as 5th outfielder type which doesn’t move the hobby needle. Ceiling: 4
Jason Delay, C, 28
The man blocking Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis! At least, that’s what I heard from Pirates fans during the season. Delay is a backup catcher profile that is average at best with the bat in his hands and outside of his average and OBP, it’s bottom of the barrel production. As a catcher, he’s one of the better framers at the position which will allow him to hold down some form of a job at the MLB level or as a third catcher depth in the minors until the automated strike zone is implemented in the majors. For the hobby, there is nothing to see here. Ceiling: 1
Cody Bolton, P, 25
A middle-innings reliever that hasn’t been able to stay healthy and never reached more than 100 innings outside of 2019, where he just barely hit that mark. In 2022, due to that injury history and lack of command, the Pirates shifted him to the bullpen, leading to a debut in 2023. He’s got a three pitch arsenal led by a mid-90’s four seamer along with a slider and a change-up that he throws infrequently just to keep hitters off of his two main pitches. His lack of command impacts the effectiveness of all of his pitches and leads to double digit walk rates. That’s going to be a problem and doesn’t give any hope for hobby relevancy. Ceiling: 1
San Diego Padres
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Matthew Batten, 3B/2B, 28
One of a number of rookies that we typically get as filler players that have long toiled in the depths of the minor leagues before getting their shots as back-end bench/depth players. Batten was drafted by San Diego back in 2017 in the 32nd round out of the college powerhouse Quinnipiac University and actually made it all the way up to Triple-A in 2018 but never got his MLB debut until 2022. That gap, even giving some leeway with the Pandemic-lost minor league season, is all you need to know that the San Diego front office doesn’t have much faith in Batten being a meaningful major league contributor.
There’s some decent speed and he looks like he shifted his approach to try and hit for more power over the last year. At the end of the day, he looks like one of the many Quad A players that can provide org depth as a short side platoon player at multiple infield and outfield positions. That looks to be his ceiling unless you’re collecting players with 80-grade baseball names. Ceiling: 2
San Francisco Giants
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Patrick Bailey, C, 24
I will drag Farhan Zaidi later on, but I do have to give him some props for his 2020 draft. Taking Bailey in the first round, Casey Schmitt in the second round and Kyle Harrison in the third round of a five round draft while paying almost everyone underslot to afford Harrison is already a winning draft regardless of the other players selected. With Bailey being that first round pick, there is already some built-in prospect pedigree. However, there was a lot of head scratching going on with that pick as the assumed Buster Posey heir was already in the system in the form of 2018 2nd overall pick Joey Bart. However, Bart was a draft pick of the previous regime and Bart has not figured out how to hit MLB-level pitching. Add in that Buster Posey retired at the end of 2021 leaving a giant hole at the position, the opportunity was there and Patrick Bailey stepped into the void in 2023, looking like the Giants long term solution at the catcher position.
Bailey was seen as a player with a strong plate approach and above average pop that was competent enough to stick at the catcher position. While he didn’t show much of that offense at the big league level, there were moments where I could see that 15 - 20 home run power that comes with plus OBP but a .250-ish batting average. Outside of blocking, his catcher metrics were some of the best in baseball with 95th percentile pop times, 98th percentile caught stealing above average, and 100th percentile in framing. That’s a top 20-ish MLB catcher and easily a Tier 3 player on a team with collectors looking to buy cards of the next Posey. As an irrational Giants fan, he’s a Tier 2 guy, but the reality is he fits more into the Tier 3 bucket. Ceiling: 6
Casey Schmitt, SS/3B/2B, 24
Originally the profile on Schmitt was a defense first infielder that wasn’t going to provide a ton of offense. In 2022, he broke out in a big way as he adjusted his approach to get more load in his legs at the beginning of his hitting motion, leading to a .293 average with 21 home runs across three levels. With plenty of roster holes at the big league level in 2023, Schmitt made his debut in early May and spent most of the year in San Francisco with a couple of brief trips back to Sacramento. There wasn’t much to write home about offensively but the defensive skills were quite evident and the Giants didn’t hesitate to play him at shortstop, third base, or second base. At his peak, Schmitt looks like a Matt Chapman-lite type of player - meh average, above average to plus home runs, and a near elite arm. That’s easily a Tier 3 player. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Ryan Walker, P, 27
A pure reliever sinker slider guy with good strikeout stuff that limits hard contact made his debut in 2023. The Giants used him in the middle innings as well as using him in an opener role and he thrived in doing so. There’s not a whole lot to complain about Walker - he’s a perfectly capable middle reliever that has some high leverage potential. As a 31st round pick back in 2018, this is a very successful result from a real baseball perspective. For the hobby, as is the case with almost all relievers, there isn’t anything to get excited about. Ceiling: 2
Brett Wisely, 2B/OF, 24
I wrote about Wisely just one month ago in the 2023 Bowman Chrome Preview and nothing has changed other than he gets a Giants card instead of a Rays card. I’ll quote the relevant parts of that write up here:
Wisely is that typical high walk, low strikeout multi-positional player that organizations like the Giants and Rays covet. As he faced more advanced pitching in Triple-A and the majors this season, that strikeout rate has backed up significantly, putting a dent in his offensive value. There’s still an MLB worthy player here, even if it’s not an everyday one. He’s got the infield/outfield combo with enough offensive skills but without an actual standout tool to be valuable on most MLB rosters. The hobby ceiling really isn’t there though - with full time run, he’s probably a .250 hitter with a good OBP, 10+ home runs, and 15+ stolen bases. However, that role probably only exists on a second division team - with first division teams, he’s a bench bat/Triple-A depth. Ceiling: 4
Blake Sabol, C/OF, 25
The fourth selection in the Rule 5 draft this past off-season by the Reds, Sabol was then traded to the Giants for relief/swing-man prospect Jake Wong. Sabol is a player that fits exactly the Farhan Zaidi mold - either a free agent that you can’t sign, a free agent that you can sign but won’t actually end up signing, a washed up pitcher, a player with a worrying injury history, or a replacement level player that can play multiple positions (bonus if you can play catcher).
Even more fitting the Zaidi mold, Sabol is a below average offensive player, cobbling together a 92 wRC+ as a strong side platoon bat in his debut season in San Francisco. And that’s really his future profile - a strong side platoon, versatile bench bat that provides a bit of pop and a decent plate approach in theory (he didn’t do so in his first go around at the MLB level, but he’s shown it in the minors). With the ability to catch, his offensive profile works as that bench bat. If he didn’t have that skill set, he wouldn’t be very viable. Still, not anything to be excited about. Ceiling: 3
Seattle Mariners
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Bryce Miller, P, 25
I've been a big Miller fan (the pitcher, not the beer) since I first did a deep dive back for 2021 Bowman Draft. His fastball simply dominated lower level minor league hitting back then. I had him as a Tier 3 pitcher with upside if he could turn any of his secondaries into usable pitches with decent command. He’s mostly done that with his sinker/cutter and slider while his change-up and curveball are still producing mixed results at best. None of those secondaries generate a ton of whiffs or prevent hard contact, but they play well enough off of his dominant fastball that he can limit the damage with them and keep hitters off the cheese.
After starting the year in Double-A, Miller skipped Triple-A and gets called up to the big league team at the beginning of May (skipping Triple-A is something the Mariners typically do with their best arms). He crushed his first 5 games and I was definitely doing victory laps. The rest of the season produced inconsistent results. A lot of the poor results were driven by Miller’s struggles against left-handed hitting and that’s what it really all boils down to. If Miller can find an effective way to get lefties out, he’s a potential SP2 and merits this Tier 2 ranking. If he can’t, that vulnerability will relegate him to more of a back-end starter with relief risk, albeit a potential high leverage arm. I’m betting on Miller figuring it out as a starter. Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Juan Then, P, 23
I have to be honest - I am mildly surprised Then is only 23 years old. I would have guessed he would be at least 26 at this point given how long I’ve been hearing about him and the prospect fatigue I have when I hear his name. Originally signed by the Mariners in 2016, Then was traded to the Yankees along with JP Sears back in 2017, and then Then (I purposely wrote it that way Grammarly, so stop bugging me!) was traded back to the Mariners mid-season in 2019 for Edwin Encarnación.
Then is a three pitch guy at this point with a mid-90’s fastball, average curveball, and above average change-up. At one point he was hitting triple digits with the fastball and starting games in the lower minors - this was when prospect hype was at its peak for Then. By 2022, Then was almost exclusively being used out of the bullpen and not getting many innings, even for a bullpen arm. I think this was likely some injury related issues, but I was unable to confirm that. Regardless, even though he debuted in 2023, it was not a season to remember as his numbers in Triple-A and the Majors were rough. He’s purely a bullpen arm that could possibly find some high leverage innings in the future. At the moment, it doesn’t look like he’s even reliable enough for a low leverage role. Ceiling: 2
José Caballero, 2B, 27
A defense and speed utility player that ended up getting just over 100 games of run in his 2023 debut season. Ultimately it ended up in a just below average season with a wRC+ of 96. He hit just above the Mendoza Line with a .221 average and a paltry four home runs. He will take a walk and he won’t strike out overly much and he will definitely steal bases as he ended up with 26 on the year. There isn’t much more to talk about with Caballero - he is what he is - a utility player that will fill a bench role on this team or another over the next few years without providing much ceiling or long-term impact. Ceiling: 2
Tampa Bay Rays
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Taj Bradley, P, 22
Easily the Rays best pitching prospect, Bradley debuted in mid-April and bounced between Durham and Tampa a few different times in 2023. While he has Tier 2 upside, I’m pushing him down into Tier 3 given his uneven results at the MLB level. He was getting strikeouts at a 28% clip (good), but giving up walks at an 8.5% rate (not great) and a WHIP of 1.39 (bad).
Bradley has four pitches, led by a plus 96 mph fastball that he throws about half the time. His next pitch is a plus high-80’s cutter that he throws about a quarter of the time. His remaining secondaries are curveball and changeup with the changeup producing really good results this year. That third pitch, whether it was the curveball or changeup, taking the next step was what Bradley needed to start realizing his SP2 ceiling. Unfortunately the fastball and especially the cutter let him down far too often with .277 and .312 batting averages against.
There’s still a quality starter here, but the question is if it is an SP4 or an SP2 with the most likely outcome being somewhere in between or simply vacillating between the two. As such, his ceiling is much higher than you would normally find in Tier 3. Ceiling: 8
Tier None
Kevin Kelly, P, 25
A Rule 5 pick of the Rays from the Guardians, Kelly is a sinker/slider bullpen arm that provides good real life value but zero hobby value. He succeeds by limiting hard contact and getting ground balls as his pitches are tough to square up even as they are in a lower velocity band. Conversely, he’s not generating many strikeouts, limiting any upside. Ceiling: 1
Texas Rangers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Cole Ragans, P, 25
I was not expecting the Cole Ragans experience in 2023, and if anyone told you they were prior to Spring Training, they get the Ron Burgundy “I don’t believe you dot gif” response. Ragans was a 1st round lefty prep pick of the Rangers back in 2016 that lost three consecutive years from 2018 to 2020 due to two Tommy John surgeries. After working his way back to health the past two seasons, Ragans had a huge jump in velocity in 2023 from the low 90’s to touching 96 regularly. Suddenly a command and control back-end profile jumped into mid-rotation starter with strikeout upside. For whatever reason, the Rangers ran him out of the bullpen for all the time he spent at the big league level in 2023 before he was traded to the Royals as part of the return for Aroldis Chapman.
Fast forward to the Royals and their serious lack of starting pitching and it was a match made in heaven. Ragans started for Kansas City from here on out and was one of the bigger surprises of the post-trade deadline performances. Along with his 96 mph four seamer, Ragans throws a full complement of pitches consisting of a changeup, cutter, curveball, and slider. Those pitches all play up now that the fastball is so effective and he’s getting whiffs and strikeouts with pretty much all of them. His main issue at the moment is walks, giving them up at over a 10% rate. That will keep him from moving beyond that mid rotation profile and keep him in Tier 3 for now. But for a minute there, the hype would have made you believe he was going to be a potential Tier 1 pitcher. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Cody Bradford, P, 25
A classic pitchability lefty that makes his way by deception and nibbling all around the edges of the zone with his plus command. Seriously, go to Baseball Savant, click random video, and I’d bet that you would see a pitch that ends up somewhere close to the edge of the strike zone.
Bradford features a high-80’s/low-90’s fastball, a plus changeup that works well off the fastball, and an average slider.
In his 2023 debut season, Bradford lived up to his profile, giving up barely any walks with a paltry 5.1% rate. As expected, his strikeout rate was on the other end of the spectrum, barely exceeding 20%. He can’t afford to leave anything in the heart of the zone as hitters get a ton of hard contact. Given his lower end velocity, he can’t afford to make mistakes with his fastball either, which he’s throwing over half the time. A nice depth arm to have on your baseball team, but there’s not a ton of upside. Ceiling: 3
Grant Anderson, P, 26
A 21st round pick in 2018, Anderson was traded from the Mariners to the Rangers at the beginning of the 2019 season for Connor Sadzeck after Sadzeck was DFA’d by the Rangers. It’s taken a while, but it’s starting to feel like the Rangers may have “won” this deal, if you could say anyone won a deal when swapping average bullpen arms.
Anderson has a sidearm delivery that starts his wind-up with his back turned to the hitter, creating a fair amount of deception. That look from the right-hand side is a lot tougher for right-handed batters and his pitches tend to have a lot of arm-side run. Accordingly, the splits heavily favor Anderson when he’s facing righties while lefties are a lot more in favor of the hitter. His arsenal is slider-heavy at over 50% and he’ll mix in a sinker and a four-seamer as his main secondaries. A strong side bullpen arm that likely won’t ever close due to a lack of velocity and strike out stuff doesn’t generate any hobby interest. Ceiling: 1
Elier Hernández, OF, 28
After a mid-summer debut in 2022, Hernández spent all of 2023 at the Rangers Triple-A affiliate. He performed decently well and racked up a bunch of hits, setting Round Rock’s single season hit record. However, the Texas League is typically hitter friendly as shown with Hernández’s wRC+ being just above average at 101. He’s going to swing outside the zone too much and swing and miss too much to find a regular MLB job. When he does make contact, he is hitting the ball hard, and he’s cut his strikeout rate down while also raising his walk rate to an average level in 2023, so he still could hold some MLB value in the next few years.
He’s been in pro ball since 2012, so age is starting to catch up to him, and at this point he looks like a Quad-A guy that can provide emergency outfield depth or perhaps find a short-side platoon job with a second division team. Ceiling: 2
Toronto Blue Jays
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Wynton Bernard, OF, 33
A feel good story in 2022 as he made his MLB debut at 32 years old with the Rockies, his call to his mom (https://x.com/Josh_Suchon/status/1558239237685878786?s=20) telling her he made it went somewhat viral within baseball’s social media circles (who’s cutting onions in here?). Following the off-season, he was released by the Rockies and signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays. However, by the end of June, he was cut loose by Toronto after not making it out of Triple-A and the Rockies re-signed him, sending him to their Triple-A affiliate, where he spent the rest of the season.
Putting aside the human interest story, Bernard is simply org depth that can play any outfield position and provide some speed on the basepaths and won’t strikeout too much. The PCL power numbers are a mirage, so you can mostly ignore that. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him head to the NPB/KBO leagues or something along those lines sooner rather than later. Interestingly, in 2023 Topps Finest, Bernard has rookie cards in a Rockies uniform, while here in Topps Update he gets rookie cards in a Blue Jays uniform - I wouldn’t be surprised for the few Bernard collectors out there that the Rockies uniform cards like Finest are more desirable than his Flagship rookies. Ceiling: 1
Washington Nationals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Jake Alu, UTIL, 26
A 24th round pick from 2019 turning into a useful MLB player for the Nationals has to be considered a success story from a baseball sense. Alu doesn’t really have any standout tools and is one of the classic archetypes of a bench player - he can play second, third, and left field that provides a good amount of contact without striking out too much from the left hand side of the batter’s box. There’s a little bit of power, a little bit of speed and the aforementioned above average hit tool. The defense isn’t anything special, lowering his value as well. So while Alu is a success from a baseball perspective, his role and his lack of Ceiling keep him in Tier None. Ceiling: 3
Thaddeus Ward, P, 26
A Rule 5 pick of the Nationals from the Red Sox leading into 2023, Ward was used as a low leverage reliever throughout the season missing over two months in the middle of the season due to a shoulder injury. He has a three pitch arsenal with a sinker, slider, and cutter. His approach is mostly to limit hard contact and get ground balls. As a low leverage reliever, there wasn’t a whole lot to get excited about, and perhaps the Nationals work him into a backend rotation role in the future. If so, maybe there will be some future hobby interest, but that likelihood is very small. At least he has a good sense of humor. Ceiling: 2
Jeter Downs, INF, 25
What hasn’t already been said about Jeter Downs? A former first round pick of the Reds back in 2017 and still just 25 years old, Downs was once considered a top prospect and has been a major piece of two huge trades to being designated for assignment and unable to get more than six games at the MLB level of a Nationals team that has plenty of holes and is in the midst of a youth movement. When Downs gets a hold of the ball, he can put it over the fence and he can also provide some stolen bases. However, the hit tool kept regressing as he worked his way up the levels as his swing and approach just don’t work against advanced pitching. He’s a streaky hitter, so there may be occasions where you can catch that Aristedes Aquino lightning in a bottle and then you can sell, sell, sell. Ceiling: 2
Jake Irvin, P, 26
Back-end starter featuring a mid-90’s four seamer, high-80’s sinker, and a high-70’s to low-80’s curveball. The four seamer and the curveball have been effective pitches while the sinker has decidedly not been to the tune of a .354 batting average against. None of his pitches generate much from a swinging strike perspective and overall he’s running a ho-hum sub-20% strikeout rate. Overall I don’t see anything overly promising for Irvin to be more than that back-end starter, swingman, emergency depth type of pitcher. Ceiling: 2
Alex Call, OF, 29
If you removed all of the parts of baseball where you had to actually put the bat on the ball with a successful outcome, Alex Call would be an ideal player. He doesn’t strike out, he takes a ton of walks, and he steals bases all while being a competent outfielder in center and left field. The problem is that unless he’s facing bad pitching, he’s regularly overmatched and will flirt with the Mendoza Line while not hitting many balls over the fence. A fifth outfielder or an occasional second division regular on a bad team, there’s not much to be interested in here from a hobby perspective, especially as he approaches 30 years old. Ceiling: 2
Hobie Harris, P, 30
Another player that’s a baseball success story as he toiled in the minors for years on end before making the Nationals out of Spring Training for his big league debut. Spending most of his prospect days with the Yankees before bouncing to the Blue Jays, Brewers, and finally the Nationals through Rule 5 and then minor league free agency scenarios, Harris has evolved into a splitter-heavy bullpen arm. Along with his splitter he’ll throw a mid-90’s fastball and a high-80’s cutter. Command issues hold him back from getting to a high leverage role as he’ll walk more hitters than ones he’ll strike out. About as low a ceiling as one can have for the hobby. Ceiling: 1