On Monday, Jan.23, the Kansas City Royals agreed to a trade with the Minnesota Twins that would send Michael A. Taylor to their division rival for minor league relievers Evan Sisk (LHP) and Steven Cruz (RHP). There were rumors most of the offseason that the Royals were open to moving Taylor to make room for their endless number of young outfielders. The list includes MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters, Edward Olivares, Nate Eaton, and waiting in the wings, Nick Loftin and Tyler Gentry.
There is no doubt that the Kansas City Royals will have big shoes to fill defensively in center. Taylor won a gold glove in 2021 and was a 3.2 WAR player in 2022, according to Baseball Reference. Although the bat was always a question mark, Taylor was in the 92nd percentile in arms strength, 88th percentile in outs above average, 86th percentile in sprint speed, and 75th percentile in outfielder jump. He was insanely good at getting great reads and making incredible plays in the outfield.
While Taylor was worth every penny the Kansas City Royals spent, they were always facing a log jam due to the young outfield talent pushing their way toward the major leagues. The emergence of guys like Kyle Isbel and Nate Eaton, moving MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto to the outfield, and the acquisition of Drew Waters gave the Royals plenty of decent options in the outfield. The question now becomes — who's in center for the Kansas City Royals?
Kyle Isbel
Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager J.J. Picollo addressed the media on Tuesday, Jan.24, to discuss the recent trades of Michael A. Taylor and Adalberto Mondesi, who was traded to the Boston Red Sox the next day.
"One of the other objectives was to pave the way for Kyle Isbel and Drew Waters to get as much time as they can in the outfield," Piccolo said. "We make a lot out of how difficult it is to play Kauffman Stadium centerfield, but with Kyle Isbel, if you look at all of the data and metrics, he is an elite defender when it comes to jumps, reads, breaks."
This statement from Picollo stuck out to me significantly. Although many thought Drew Waters would be the surefire centerfielder, it seems as though J.J. and company see Kyle Isbel as someone who might be in the lead for that centerfield spot. Often compared to Alex Gordon during his prospect days, Isbel has been on many people's radars for a while now. Like Gordon, Isbel transitioned to the outfield and has significantly improved during his development. He is an athletic defender who has improved his routes and angles greatly. His speed allows him to track down balls and get good jumps.
Even though Isbel doesn't have top-tier speed, he still has enough to hold his own in the outfield. "He's not the elite runner that Michael Taylor or Lorenzo Cain have been in the past," Piccolo said. "We'll get a chance to evaluate how he plays centerfield and if he's of the ability that we need defensively to play centerfield at Kauffman."
That is some high confidence and praise from the front office on Kyle Isbel. As Picollo stated, the metrics back up Isbel's abilities. According to Baseball Savant, in 106 games in 2022, Isbel was in the 100th percentile in outfield jump, 97th percentile in outs above average, 72nd percentile in arm strength, and 68th percentile in sprint speed. While his arm strength is about average, it still plays well at the major league level.
Some of the main questions are about Kyle Isbel's bat. He has always had an above-average hit tool, but there are concerns about whether he can tap into enough power. He is in the 74th percentile of max exit velocity, so he can hit the ball hard at the very least and does an excellent job at using all parts of the field, although he got pretty pull-happy with his power at the major league level. You could argue that Isbel has a better offensive ceiling than Michael A. Taylor, and there is still plenty of time for him to iron out his bat in 2023.
Drew Waters
Waters was the second name that Picollo mentioned during his address to the media. "We got a chance to see him a little bit in centerfield last year," Picollo said. A once highly regarded top prospect with the Atlanta Braves, the Royals acquired him last year with C.J. Alexander (INF) and Andrew Hoffmann (RHP) for their 35th pick in the 2022 MLB Draft.
There has always been a ton of intrigue around Waters. He has had tools for days that have made him the type of player he is now. He's got the speed to play centerfield but often needs help with jumps and reads. His arm is really what carries him. He has a plus arm but sometimes struggles with the accuracy of his throws. Regardless, Waters has the athleticism that could let him stick in center field; if not, he could quickly move to left or right. In his small 32-game sample size, Waters ranked in the 98th percentile in arm strength and 80th percentile in sprint speed.
Like Isbel, there have been questions on how Waters' bat might translate to the big leagues. Since coming to Kansas City, Waters seemed to address one of the concerns early on: his ability to draw walks. In Triple-A, he nearly doubled his walk rate from his time with the Braves. He showed an improved approach and patients at the plate. That carried over to the big leagues as he sported an 11 BB%.
On top of that, his power was on display, hitting five home runs in 32 games. The area of concern was his 36% K%. Waters still tended to chase pitches and struggle to pick up spin.
Waters may have a higher ceiling than Isbel due to his tools, so there is an excellent reason for many wanting to see him out there getting at-bats at the major league level. Undoubtedly, he will start with the big league club in 2023, and he could get plenty of opportunities to prove himself.
Conclusion
While Kyle Isbel has the upper hand to become the everyday centerfielder to start 2023, this battle will be fun to watch come spring training. Due to some of the splits and with new manager Matt Quatraro, there could be some platooning that happens to get more at-bats for guys like Edward Olivares and Nate Eaton. Regardless of who ends up in the center, both will likely find ample playing time in 2023.
It will be intriguing to see how the Royals decide to deploy both Isbel and Waters and the rest of the outfielders the Royals have. The two are both uber-talented and athletic, so if you're the Royals or a Royals fan, you have to be happy that both will likely be handling a spot in the outfield somehow.