Chicago Cubs President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer has repeatedly alluded to the formation of the “next great Cubs team”, and with the strides the farm system and player development have taken over the past couple of years, winning may return to the North Side sooner than expected. In the major leagues, optimism can be found as well with the Cubs playing .500 ball (21-21) since the All-Star break. When looking at the current roster, a core piece for the next competitive Cubs team can already be found: Nico Hoerner.
In 2019 Prospects Live ranked the shortstop as the number 1 prospect in the Cubs system, referring to him as a “player to watch very closely.” However, when he first arrived in the big leagues, he struggled at the plate, leading to questions about his long-term viability at short. Today, he has more than answered all of those questions. Currently, he ranks number 7 in fWAR at the position with 3.6 wins above replacement. On top of his modest success at the plate 104 wRC+ (11th best at short), Hoerner plays stellar defense and is in 99 percentile of OAA with 15 which is 2nd best at his position.
25-year-old, Hoerner has made big improvements at the plate and still has room to grow. Let’s delve into Fangraphs and Savant data to showcase the shortstop’s development:
Improvements at the Plate
2021 marked the first time that Nico Hoerner had posted an above-league-average wOBA, and this season, he has done it over a longer span of games (118 games this year vs 44 last year). It’s clear that going into the 2021 season changes were made to his approach:
One of the most significant changes to his approach has been his increase in launch angle each season. In 2019-2020, his average launch angle checked in at 2.2 degrees. In 2021, it shot up to 7.7 degrees and has since increased to 11 degrees this year. As a result, Hoerner has hit fewer ground balls each season, down to 46% this year, which is still slightly above league average, but a far cry from the 51 GB% he averaged in his previous 112 games.
Approach-wise at the plate, Hoerner has developed a more balanced attack with an increase in opposite field hitting (21.4% in 2019-2020 vs 30.1% in 2021-2022). He’s found success with this approach posting a wRC+ of 111 this year to right field. Below is this season’s spray chart:
In the box, his contact ability remains strong with above-league-average in-zone (91.9% vs. 82.0%) and out-of-zone contact rates (72.3% vs 58.3%). His uptick in out-of-zone contact from 67. 6% last year led him to his all-time low whiff percentage at 14.4%. This year against breaking balls, his contact quality has improved, increasing his average exit velocity against them by 8 miles per hour up to 87.7 mph and his wOBA from .230 to .370.
The last big improvement at the plate has been his ability to hit left-handed pitchers. Before 2022, Hoerner posted three seasons with below-average results against lefties with his best being in 2019 when he had an 86 wRC+. This year, he has crushed southpaws with a 123 wRC+. In the below images, the top shows his wOBA against lefties from 2019-2021 and the bottom shows 2022– he has made improvements in nearly every zone:
Areas to Continue to Improve
Though he has made significant progress, there are still areas of improvement needed. As mentioned above, Hoerner still hits into ground balls at a rate higher than the league average (46.9% vs 44.9%). This year, his production on balls on the ground has been incredibly low with a 57 wRC+. With the improvements, he has made over the years in regards to his launch angle, there is hope that he can continue to cut down on groundballs which would lead to better production especially if he could increase his line drive rate.
This season, Hoerner took a step back against fastballs. To illustrate this point, it is worthwhile to first delve into Run Value. Run Value is computed by determining the value of an event based on the count, outs, and runners on base. Over the course of the season, the values of the events are added up to see how many runs are created against any pitch type for a hitter (conversely how much value pitchers create can also be calculated), and it is often useful to look at as how much run production comes over 100 pitches (RV/100). In previous years, Hoerner was inconsistent with RV/100 going from 1.2 to -1.1 to 4.9. This season, his production against the pitch has cratered with an RV/100 of -2.0, meaning that over the course of 100 fastballs he cost his team two runs. Even the underlying expected numbers point to a negative trend with by far his lowest xwOBA on the pitch: .281 (.376 was the previous low). The graphics below show his wOBA against fastballs from 2019-2021 on the top and this season’s on the bottom, it makes the step back on the pitch clear:
Going Forward
Going into this offseason, there has already been speculation that the Cubs will be tied to one of the top shortstops in the market; however, Nico Hoerner has ascended into becoming one of the top 10 players at the position. Over the past two seasons, he has started lifting the ball more, refined his approach at the plate, and crushed lefties. His plate improvements and his elite defense make him extremely valuable. In the seasons to come, areas of improvement like hitting fewer grounders and hitting fastballs better can unlock him even further. If the Cubs do sign one of the top shortstops, there will be some infield shuffling with Hoerner’s emergence and Nick Madrigal starting to turn things around, perhaps moving one of them to third:
Hoerner has shown the ability to make improvements and now his biggest challenge will be staying on the field, which he has done for the first time this season. When the next great Cubs team arrives, Hoerner should figure to be an important contributor.